Anonymous
Post 11/28/2023 07:53     Subject: NYT: Profound increase in black voters who support Trump
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:We are just going to have to wait until Nov 2024. Until then, everything is speculation. Polls have burned all in the past. Who knows?!

+1

Color me skeptical that 22% of Black men are headed over to the GOP. I mean, maybe. But Republicans are pretty bald about the fact that they don’t think Black people are human.


Do you know any black men? Plenty of them are socially and economically conservative. And like many of us are also tired of being lectured about “social justice” in a simplistic and victimizing way.
Anonymous
Post 11/28/2023 07:51     Subject: NYT: Profound increase in black voters who support Trump
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:It’s a free country. If black people feel Trump will do better for them then they can vote accordingly.



I don't think it's unreasonable to assume that a Republican in the White House would be better for black folks in several areas. One, the current USAO in DC is Matthew Graves, a Biden appointee that declines to prosecute 67 percent of all arrests here. As a result, crime is once again an epidemic in DC - every corner of it. And the vast, vast majority of victims of violent crime in DC are black people. I don't know if people here actually talk to black people, but they went action - more police, more prosecutions, even the National Guard - to deal with crime. And that will never happen as long as Biden is president.

The border is another issue. Just because everyone is a shade of brown doesn't mean blacks naturally feel an affinity for Venezuelans who don't speak a word of English and whose children are overwhelming school districts around the country. Plus the additional pressure on housing and social services. Very often the feeling in the black community is that all those millions of illegal migrants are simply cutting to the front of the line.

Biden does not engender much loyalty in the black community. It's not like Obama. It's not even like the Clintons. I would not be surprised if 25 percent of blacks vote Republican. And I suspect turnout will be low. Add that to all the young people upset about Israel and I think Biden is going to have a lot of difficulty getting to a 2nd term. He's a bad candidate for this moment in time.


And Trump is a good one?


In the end, people generally choose what they believe to be the best of the two options on the ballot.
Anonymous
Post 11/28/2023 07:43     Subject: NYT: Profound increase in black voters who support Trump
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:It’s a free country. If black people feel Trump will do better for them then they can vote accordingly.



I don't think it's unreasonable to assume that a Republican in the White House would be better for black folks in several areas. One, the current USAO in DC is Matthew Graves, a Biden appointee that declines to prosecute 67 percent of all arrests here. As a result, crime is once again an epidemic in DC - every corner of it. And the vast, vast majority of victims of violent crime in DC are black people. I don't know if people here actually talk to black people, but they went action - more police, more prosecutions, even the National Guard - to deal with crime. And that will never happen as long as Biden is president.

The border is another issue. Just because everyone is a shade of brown doesn't mean blacks naturally feel an affinity for Venezuelans who don't speak a word of English and whose children are overwhelming school districts around the country. Plus the additional pressure on housing and social services. Very often the feeling in the black community is that all those millions of illegal migrants are simply cutting to the front of the line.

Biden does not engender much loyalty in the black community. It's not like Obama. It's not even like the Clintons. I would not be surprised if 25 percent of blacks vote Republican. And I suspect turnout will be low. Add that to all the young people upset about Israel and I think Biden is going to have a lot of difficulty getting to a 2nd term. He's a bad candidate for this moment in time.


And Trump is a good one?
Anonymous
Post 11/28/2023 07:34     Subject: NYT: Profound increase in black voters who support Trump
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Serious question: how significant is the black vote? Black people are 12% of Americans, right? And the voting levels are generally lower than in other racial groups?
So even if some black people change their mind and vote Republican, how significant is it?


NYT has had some interesting content about this. They recently did a thing on it in their podcast called The Daily, that's worth a listen. The black vote has been the most reliable for the Democrats, and that is shifting. It's not a massive shift, but the fact it is happening among younger black voters is a sign that this may not be a voting demographic they can take for granted. They go into why young black voters, especially male, are peeling off.


I’m a democrat and would never vote for Trump but I honestly think Biden keeps missing the mark. I’m very worried and hope his campaign is taking these signs seriously. The DC democrats I know keep saying Trump “can’t win again”. In 2016 they said Trump can’t win” and we know how that turned out.


The NYT's news and commentary on this does suggest that they are taking these signs seriously. I think when you consider that Biden has done aboutface on many of his central policies, it shows that they do respond to voter preferences. I think the trouble that they will encounter is that in the first part of his presidency, he made a lot of statements that xyz policy is awful and racist, and then went on to adopt xyz policy. I think depending on how people digest those messages, it will either be the thing that dooms him or the thing that redeems him. The other issue is that they have worked very hard to shift the Overton window on issues related to gender and children, and it appears that has been a complete disaster in terms of voter acceptance.
Anonymous
Post 11/28/2023 07:27     Subject: NYT: Profound increase in black voters who support Trump
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Serious question: how significant is the black vote? Black people are 12% of Americans, right? And the voting levels are generally lower than in other racial groups?
So even if some black people change their mind and vote Republican, how significant is it?


NYT has had some interesting content about this. They recently did a thing on it in their podcast called The Daily, that's worth a listen. The black vote has been the most reliable for the Democrats, and that is shifting. It's not a massive shift, but the fact it is happening among younger black voters is a sign that this may not be a voting demographic they can take for granted. They go into why young black voters, especially male, are peeling off.


I’m a democrat and would never vote for Trump but I honestly think Biden keeps missing the mark. I’m very worried and hope his campaign is taking these signs seriously. The DC democrats I know keep saying Trump “can’t win again”. In 2016 they said Trump can’t win” and we know how that turned out.
Anonymous
Post 11/28/2023 07:15     Subject: Re:NYT: Profound increase in black voters who support Trump
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:This seems like yet another article in a series of articles written by a media that is fixated on portraying everything as a disaster for Biden. It's hard to take it seriously anymore.

Maybe Trump has some superficial lead among black voters right now. Just wait until he's the nominee and keeps opening up his mouth to remind black voters of his true nature.

The media is owned by Republican conglomerates and headed up by Republican men. They want Trump so bad they can taste it.


I am going to assume most readers here know that is completely untrue.

But it is true that Biden tends to fare better vs Trump than other candidates, and also that Trump drives ratings and clicks better than any other US political figure, so there is a lot of $ involved in creating as much news around Trump as possible.
Anonymous
Post 11/28/2023 07:14     Subject: Re:NYT: Profound increase in black voters who support Trump
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:I just do not understand how so many people say they support T. It is mind boggling.



People don't all think the same. You probably think he was a Russian agent who hates Black people and tried to overthrow the government. And you probably think his tweets are mean. Imagine of you believed none of the second sentence in this paragraph and also thought he was funny, not mean, and you will start to understand Trump voters.

He was a Russian asset, not an agent, he does hate Black people and did try to overthrow the government. Not only was he mean, he was and is a stochastic terrorist. So you see why people are genuinely confused about why anyone supports that horrible man who has no plans for anything (other than fascism).
Anonymous
Post 11/28/2023 07:10     Subject: Re:NYT: Profound increase in black voters who support Trump
Anonymous wrote:This seems like yet another article in a series of articles written by a media that is fixated on portraying everything as a disaster for Biden. It's hard to take it seriously anymore.

Maybe Trump has some superficial lead among black voters right now. Just wait until he's the nominee and keeps opening up his mouth to remind black voters of his true nature.

The media is owned by Republican conglomerates and headed up by Republican men. They want Trump so bad they can taste it.
Anonymous
Post 11/28/2023 06:45     Subject: NYT: Profound increase in black voters who support Trump
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:How do the Dems remain so tone deaf? NYT reported polling data showing skyrocketing support among black voters for Trump:

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/06/us/politics/biden-trump-black-voters-poll-democrats.html


People across the board are sick and tired of the out of the control crime like car jackings and shootings that have skyrocketed under Biden and are a result of local policies enacted by the Democrats. All too often that crime is occurring in black neighborhoods. That and the massive influx of illegal immigrants that have been pouring into the country courtesy of Biden and the Democrats is causing a significant erosion in the confidence of Dems to be able to govern. People want law and order and oour borders to be restored.

It is almost inevitable Trump is going to win. He is leading Biden by double digits now.


I don't see a single poll where Trump is leading Biden by double digits.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/


DP. There are at least two on your own link.


Try zero. The two where he has double digit leads are against Harris.
Anonymous
Post 11/28/2023 06:44     Subject: Re:NYT: Profound increase in black voters who support Trump
Anonymous wrote:I just do not understand how so many people say they support T. It is mind boggling.



People don't all think the same. You probably think he was a Russian agent who hates Black people and tried to overthrow the government. And you probably think his tweets are mean. Imagine of you believed none of the second sentence in this paragraph and also thought he was funny, not mean, and you will start to understand Trump voters.
Anonymous
Post 11/28/2023 06:38     Subject: Re:NYT: Profound increase in black voters who support Trump
I just do not understand how so many people say they support T. It is mind boggling.
Anonymous
Post 11/28/2023 06:17     Subject: NYT: Profound increase in black voters who support Trump
Anonymous wrote:Serious question: how significant is the black vote? Black people are 12% of Americans, right? And the voting levels are generally lower than in other racial groups?
So even if some black people change their mind and vote Republican, how significant is it?


NYT has had some interesting content about this. They recently did a thing on it in their podcast called The Daily, that's worth a listen. The black vote has been the most reliable for the Democrats, and that is shifting. It's not a massive shift, but the fact it is happening among younger black voters is a sign that this may not be a voting demographic they can take for granted. They go into why young black voters, especially male, are peeling off.
Anonymous
Post 11/28/2023 02:09     Subject: NYT: Profound increase in black voters who support Trump
Anonymous wrote:Serious question: how significant is the black vote? Black people are 12% of Americans, right? And the voting levels are generally lower than in other racial groups?
So even if some black people change their mind and vote Republican, how significant is it?



The black vote is very important in democratic primaries. Every nominee - Biden, Clinton, Obama - is always the preferred candidate for black democrats. Typically, the race is settled by South Carolina.

Nationally, the black vote will matter in contested states where they have a significant presence. Think Georgia and North Carolina. If 15-20 percent of blacks choose the republican candidate there it'll make a big difference. So will low turnout.
Anonymous
Post 11/28/2023 01:07     Subject: NYT: Profound increase in black voters who support Trump
Serious question: how significant is the black vote? Black people are 12% of Americans, right? And the voting levels are generally lower than in other racial groups?
So even if some black people change their mind and vote Republican, how significant is it?
Anonymous
Post 11/27/2023 23:44     Subject: Re:NYT: Profound increase in black voters who support Trump
This seems like yet another article in a series of articles written by a media that is fixated on portraying everything as a disaster for Biden. It's hard to take it seriously anymore.

Maybe Trump has some superficial lead among black voters right now. Just wait until he's the nominee and keeps opening up his mouth to remind black voters of his true nature.