Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The shutdown is unlikely. The far right that Gaetz leads, that is taking the hard stance, is only about 10% of the party. They can posture all they want, but they do NOT have the power to oust McCarthy as Speaker without getting a lot more support from the mainstream Conservatives.

If McCarthy can come to a compromise solution that the majority of the party can live with, even if the hard-liners don't, he will keep the government open. It remains to be seen if he can do that, but I expect that there will be a series of bipartisan CRs that will kick the can down the road long enough to get a bipartison budget passed, probably sometime in early 2024. But it will happen and McCarthy will not lose his speakership. There is literally NO ONE that the hard-liners will liek that can conceivably win the Speakership. So, they have to put up with a Speaker that the mainstream Conservatives will support, like McCarthy. They will get concessions, but they will never get someone to toe their unreasonable line.

He already did. The spending cuts that everyone agreed to when the debt limit was raised where the compromise. He's trying to pretend that didn't happen and cut further. He's counting on the democrats not having a spine, which is usually a good bet (remember when Biden refused to negotiate on the debt ceiling).

That's not completely true. McCarthy said at the time that that round of compromise was intended to be the first step to get through the debt limit impasse. He said at the time that further cuts would need to be considered when the budget debate came up, which it is now.

If the Democrats really thought that that one round of cuts was going to be sufficient to get through every impasse, they were and are pretty naive. Everything in Congress unless explicitly spelled out with a period of agreement is for the current debate only. This is why some discussions say things like no further cuts until <date>. If there is no limit discussed and documented at the time of the agreement, then it is assumed to be the current agreement, to be renegotiated the next time.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:very likely. It is in the GOP interest to tank our country and economy.

Past government shutdowns have all blamed the GOP.

Name a time the Dems were in control and there was a shut down.

DP. Not sure what you mean by “in control.” The “Dems” controlled the presidency in 1995 and 2013 during those govt shutdowns.

Anonymous wrote:The shutdown is unlikely. The far right that Gaetz leads, that is taking the hard stance, is only about 10% of the party. They can posture all they want, but they do NOT have the power to oust McCarthy as Speaker without getting a lot more support from the mainstream Conservatives.

If McCarthy can come to a compromise solution that the majority of the party can live with, even if the hard-liners don't, he will keep the government open. It remains to be seen if he can do that, but I expect that there will be a series of bipartisan CRs that will kick the can down the road long enough to get a bipartison budget passed, probably sometime in early 2024. But it will happen and McCarthy will not lose his speakership. There is literally NO ONE that the hard-liners will liek that can conceivably win the Speakership. So, they have to put up with a Speaker that the mainstream Conservatives will support, like McCarthy. They will get concessions, but they will never get someone to toe their unreasonable line.

He already did. The spending cuts that everyone agreed to when the debt limit was raised where the compromise. He's trying to pretend that didn't happen and cut further. He's counting on the democrats not having a spine, which is usually a good bet (remember when Biden refused to negotiate on the debt ceiling).

The shutdown is unlikely. The far right that Gaetz leads, that is taking the hard stance, is only about 10% of the party. They can posture all they want, but they do NOT have the power to oust McCarthy as Speaker without getting a lot more support from the mainstream Conservatives.

If McCarthy can come to a compromise solution that the majority of the party can live with, even if the hard-liners don't, he will keep the government open. It remains to be seen if he can do that, but I expect that there will be a series of bipartisan CRs that will kick the can down the road long enough to get a bipartison budget passed, probably sometime in early 2024. But it will happen and McCarthy will not lose his speakership. There is literally NO ONE that the hard-liners will liek that can conceivably win the Speakership. So, they have to put up with a Speaker that the mainstream Conservatives will support, like McCarthy. They will get concessions, but they will never get someone to toe their unreasonable line.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:90% chance of shutdown. If it occurs 80% chance it lasts 1 week, 20% chance it lasts 2 weeks. The oracle has spoken.

And the lowly feds will get back pay for the time missed during the shutdown. I feel soooo bad for them.

Many of us still work during a shutdown. In fact, there is never really a true shutdown - IIRC only about 1/4 of the government actually shuts down.

There are 12 appropriation bills. It all depends on if any of them get passed. Last time when 1/4 of the government shut down, there were something like 10 of the bills that passed. Only the largest one, which included about 1/4 of the DC work force, did not pass and was delayed causing those agencies included in that bill to shut down.

Wow, got quiet in here.

Meanwhile…

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:very likely. It is in the GOP interest to tank our country and economy.

Past government shutdowns have all blamed the GOP.

Name a time the Dems were in control and there was a shut down.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:very likely. It is in the GOP interest to tank our country and economy.

Past government shutdowns have all blamed the GOP.

Because it’s always their fault. I think there were three different shutdowns just in 2018 when they had the White House, the House and the Senate.

Anonymous wrote:very likely. It is in the GOP interest to tank our country and economy.

Past government shutdowns have all blamed the GOP.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I know in reality this is not feasible, but I wish they would actually shut down the entire govt, not the 25% a PP quoted. No Medicare, social security, air traffic control, etc would quickly put an end to any future shut down talk.

+1 The air traffic controllers threatening to actually walk out is what ended the long shutdown when the Republicans were in charge of every branch of government.

To remind everyone:

“We found out what was happening with air traffic control, with the walkout,” he said. “We decided to take the train.”
But within hours, lawmakers had a deal for ending the shutdown. Whether the slowdown at LaGuardia moved that along isn’t clear, but at least one member of Congress took to Twitter to declare it had made the difference.
“Thank you air traffic controllers," tweeted D.C. Del. Eleanor Holmes Norton. "You scared Trump into opening the government.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/transportation/2019/01/25/faa-delays-flights-new-yorks-laguardia-airport-citing-staffing-shortages-amid-government-shutdown/

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I know in reality this is not feasible, but I wish they would actually shut down the entire govt, not the 25% a PP quoted. No Medicare, social security, air traffic control, etc would quickly put an end to any future shut down talk.

+1 The air traffic controllers threatening to actually walk out is what ended the long shutdown when the Republicans were in charge of every branch of government.

I thought they were all fired after that though. They won't do it again.

No, they weren’t, this was the 35-day shutdown in 2018.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I know in reality this is not feasible, but I wish they would actually shut down the entire govt, not the 25% a PP quoted. No Medicare, social security, air traffic control, etc would quickly put an end to any future shut down talk.

+1 The air traffic controllers threatening to actually walk out is what ended the long shutdown when the Republicans were in charge of every branch of government.

I thought they were all fired after that though. They won't do it again.

Anonymous wrote:I know in reality this is not feasible, but I wish they would actually shut down the entire govt, not the 25% a PP quoted. No Medicare, social security, air traffic control, etc would quickly put an end to any future shut down talk.

+1 The air traffic controllers threatening to actually walk out is what ended the long shutdown when the Republicans were in charge of every branch of government.

McCarthy may implode given everything he is facing.

Anonymous wrote:Not going to happen.

McConnell doesn't want a shutdown.

He’s not looking too effective lately. IJS.