Anonymous
Post 01/25/2023 21:01     Subject: Florida Real Estate is off the hook
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Also we have the richest generation ever retiring.

My mother and MIL in NY were lower income widows.

NY reduces property tax on lower incomes and SS/Pension type income barely gets taxes at all. Both owned their small cheap to maintain starter homes outright.

Now compare this to my older brother near retrieve. He has almost 5 million in his 401ks he needs to do RMD on and around 5 million in stocks and two million bonds.

In retirement he still has a high income. Plus his NY house is big with high taxes and he in not eligible for reduced taxes when a senior due to income.

These people are going to keep coming, my brothers RMD will be $250k and his other stuff brings in $200k. He is making 450k in retirement or not.


Why in the world would someone worth millions ($450k retirement withdrawals!), retire to FLORIDA?? So many nicer places.


+1
Anonymous
Post 01/25/2023 20:59     Subject: Florida Real Estate is off the hook
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:OP, these are the types of areas that will see significant decreases in home values. This bubble was about low interest rates/FOMO. Even desirable areas with good public schools, jobs, and lots of UMC/UC people (like Central Florida) didn't see much of a net population increase during the pandemic. Prices are coming down even there. Florida real estate tends to have huge spikes then huge decreases.


I used to agree with you, but if you look at the numbers, there are like 1,000 people moving there every day. It’s not slowing down where I am and it won’t until the supply outstrips demand for housing.


But that's been going on for a while. There still wasn't population growth even during the pandemic, and there's a very low population growth projected for the next 5 years. Anyway, prices have already decreased in Central Florida, even the desirable areas and homes sit on the market much longer than they used to. It's foolish to think that rising interest rates won't continue to affect home values.


I am in the market and am not seeing this. Nice houses in the best parts of Central Florida still go under contract quickly and prices are still like 50% higher than they were 3 years ago. You can also get rates in the 5s right now. I’m not so sure prices will drop significantly.
Anonymous
Post 01/25/2023 20:47     Subject: Florida Real Estate is off the hook
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:OP, these are the types of areas that will see significant decreases in home values. This bubble was about low interest rates/FOMO. Even desirable areas with good public schools, jobs, and lots of UMC/UC people (like Central Florida) didn't see much of a net population increase during the pandemic. Prices are coming down even there. Florida real estate tends to have huge spikes then huge decreases.


I used to agree with you, but if you look at the numbers, there are like 1,000 people moving there every day. It’s not slowing down where I am and it won’t until the supply outstrips demand for housing.


But that's been going on for a while. There still wasn't population growth even during the pandemic, and there's a very low population growth projected for the next 5 years. Anyway, prices have already decreased in Central Florida, even the desirable areas and homes sit on the market much longer than they used to. It's foolish to think that rising interest rates won't continue to affect home values.


What? Population growth slowed during the pandemic, but it was still positive (unlike the DC & NY, which lost population). It has since skyrocketed.

https://www.tampabay.com/news/2022/12/28/florida-is-fastest-growing-state-nation-census-estimates-show/

It’s not your imagination: People really are flocking to Florida.

The Sunshine State had the fastest-growing population in the country last year — the first time the state has taken the top spot since 1957, according to U.S. Census Bureau estimates released last week.

The nation’s third-largest state grew by 1.9% from July 2021 to July 2022 — netting over 400,000 new residents to reach an estimated population of 22,244,823. That’s the second-largest numeric gain behind Texas, which has a larger overall population.
Anonymous
Post 01/25/2023 20:39     Subject: Re:Florida Real Estate is off the hook
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:I don’t get Florida. We have to go to visit my in laws and it has bad vibes. I just have a creepy feeling the whole time. This started way pre-Trump so I don’t think it’s political. I didn’t even know about The Villages then, or it didn’t exist yet idk.


Same. I know there are some nice areas but mostly it seems like a low class, cheesy, and gaudy culture.


Well, that creepy feeling comes from the brain drain and youth drain for the last generations -- anyone who wanted a professional career generally moved to the NE or California for college and career. The people who were left went to UF and became teachers or ambulance chaser lawyers, etc. But the population has a donut hole of people older than high school, you have a lot of old people, some middle age, but most youth try to move elsewhere if they can.


LOL. You haven't looked lately. All the young people in my family from the NY/NJ area have moved South.
Anonymous
Post 01/25/2023 20:36     Subject: Florida Real Estate is off the hook
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:I'm in Tucson, where people are worried about water. I know 2 families who moved to central FL to escape our "impending crash when we dry up". They were both quasi-prepper families, retired with a lot of money. I wonder if this is the new place to be.


People who are worried about climate issues and move to Florida, of all places, befuddle me.


People who move to florida aren't causing climate issues. The two main climate issues facing florida are (i) rising sea levels (which can be easily managed by moving to a home well above sea level, and also is something that a lot of cities have time to plan around - like miami is raising certain streets that are prone to flooding and adding pumps to get rid of water when the tides come up) and (ii) hurricanes (which are unpredictable but can be managed, in that they happen rarely to any one area, and newer houses are able to withstand all but the worst hurricanes). Day to day living in lots of parts of florida meanwhile can be very attuned to nature, so a very good fit for outdoorsy people.

Compared with the west coast where water shortages and wildfires are becoming daily existences.


Wild fires only affect areas near forests or scrub land. So basically Malibu, the rural red areas of mountain-adjacent California, and the wine regions.

In other words, very few homes are at fire risk in California. Smoke is a bigger issue, but my dad lives in Montana and smoke is waaaaaay worse there. They get smoke from wild fires in Oregon and Washington, in addition to Montana and adjacent Idaho’s fires. Air quality is atrocious in the rural mountain west for much of the summer.

In terms of drought, it’s feast or famine. This year is a “triple La Niña” which has caused record levels of rain and snowpack. This is going to refill the reservoirs, dams, and aquifers for the next couple years. Still, it doesn’t solve the long term drought trends. That said, if you want to see the future of California look to Israel. Desalination + nuclear is going to happen, it’s just a matter of time. Politicians like Newsom are practical and clear eyed about the need.


If Newsom was clear about the need, California would be building reservoirs & acquifer recharge zones to capture the runoff from the rains like they've been having the last few weeks. Instead, most of the water is just running out to the sea. Meanwhile, he's busy shutting down the few nuclear plants CA has left.

In any case, the water problem out West is not just drought. The population growth in the west has outstripped the water supply, even in good years. California has been drawing reserves for decades & would've gotten to a crises point sooner or later. The drought just speeded up the inevitable. The Colorado River system was overallocated, even before the series of court decisions that recognized the senior water rights of tribal entities. The fight to allocate the water that actually exists is going to be bloody and long. That climate just wasn't designed to sustain the population that is trying to live there.
Anonymous
Post 01/25/2023 16:30     Subject: Re:Florida Real Estate is off the hook
I am in florida. I moved for neither the taxes nor politics.

But i like living here; today, all the windows in my house are open, there's not a cloud in the sky, and it's 79'. a/c hasn't been on since probably late October. My kid goes to a nationally ranked public school. The people around us are nice, and everyone is happy.

Yeah, desantis sucks and the politics can suck. But i felt the same way living in DC for years, and i've always hated US politics (i'm an immigrant).
Anonymous
Post 01/25/2023 16:14     Subject: Florida Real Estate is off the hook
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Also we have the richest generation ever retiring.

My mother and MIL in NY were lower income widows.

NY reduces property tax on lower incomes and SS/Pension type income barely gets taxes at all. Both owned their small cheap to maintain starter homes outright.

Now compare this to my older brother near retrieve. He has almost 5 million in his 401ks he needs to do RMD on and around 5 million in stocks and two million bonds.

In retirement he still has a high income. Plus his NY house is big with high taxes and he in not eligible for reduced taxes when a senior due to income.

These people are going to keep coming, my brothers RMD will be $250k and his other stuff brings in $200k. He is making 450k in retirement or not.


Why in the world would someone worth millions ($450k retirement withdrawals!), retire to FLORIDA?? So many nicer places.


where else can you boat and be on the water in the winter in the US?

We just bought our retirement home there. Really no other choice.
Anonymous
Post 01/25/2023 15:44     Subject: Florida Real Estate is off the hook
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Also we have the richest generation ever retiring.

My mother and MIL in NY were lower income widows.

NY reduces property tax on lower incomes and SS/Pension type income barely gets taxes at all. Both owned their small cheap to maintain starter homes outright.

Now compare this to my older brother near retrieve. He has almost 5 million in his 401ks he needs to do RMD on and around 5 million in stocks and two million bonds.

In retirement he still has a high income. Plus his NY house is big with high taxes and he in not eligible for reduced taxes when a senior due to income.

These people are going to keep coming, my brothers RMD will be $250k and his other stuff brings in $200k. He is making 450k in retirement or not.


Why in the world would someone worth millions ($450k retirement withdrawals!), retire to FLORIDA?? So many nicer places.


He lives near Naples. He bought his home back in 2017. He is only retiring now. He likes to play golf year round. Go to beach, go to country club and basically hang out with 55-75 year old retired rich white guys from the North East.

In Florida on a Tuesday he can play golf, go for drinks then out to dinner. Everyone is free 24/7.

Florida in the nicer parts are same demographic that Nassau County NY and MoCo was in the 1980s.
Anonymous
Post 01/25/2023 15:33     Subject: Florida Real Estate is off the hook
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Also we have the richest generation ever retiring.

My mother and MIL in NY were lower income widows.

NY reduces property tax on lower incomes and SS/Pension type income barely gets taxes at all. Both owned their small cheap to maintain starter homes outright.

Now compare this to my older brother near retrieve. He has almost 5 million in his 401ks he needs to do RMD on and around 5 million in stocks and two million bonds.

In retirement he still has a high income. Plus his NY house is big with high taxes and he in not eligible for reduced taxes when a senior due to income.

These people are going to keep coming, my brothers RMD will be $250k and his other stuff brings in $200k. He is making 450k in retirement or not.


Why in the world would someone worth millions ($450k retirement withdrawals!), retire to FLORIDA?? So many nicer places.


Like where with warm weather all year? Nicer than say, Palm Beach or Naples or Coral Gables? Sure, I'd want a place in Colorado or Tahoe as well at that income, but for my permanent home, I can't think of much better that Florida.

California has nicer weather sure. But the water is freezing most of the coast. And the cost of living for a retiree... no.

DP.. when you get to a certain, even CA weather is too cold. My mom is 80+. They live in CA but not the coast, and she finds most days to be cold. That sounds crazy to me, but I'm finding the same with my 80+ yr old MIL. Her house is a constant 86F. When you get to a certain age, anything below 85 is too cold.

I'm not a fan of FL; hate the humidity. But I could see myself moving there when I'm like 75 to seek warmth. Though, I don't think it will be FL. Don't want to be near hurricanes, and climate change is impacting FL. Maybe GA or NC, not coastal.
Anonymous
Post 01/25/2023 15:28     Subject: Florida Real Estate is off the hook
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Today I was talking to colleagues and we all plan to move to Florida. Just saying.


Florida's not last on my list of states in which to retire, but it sur isn't at the top. Bottom 25 for sure, perhaps bottom 15. It's probably not so low for my spouse, but still not at the top. Is we really needed to retire to a low tax state, we'd choose Delaware.


I'd choose Washington state for an income tax free state. No question.
Anonymous
Post 01/25/2023 14:39     Subject: Florida Real Estate is off the hook
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Also we have the richest generation ever retiring.

My mother and MIL in NY were lower income widows.

NY reduces property tax on lower incomes and SS/Pension type income barely gets taxes at all. Both owned their small cheap to maintain starter homes outright.

Now compare this to my older brother near retrieve. He has almost 5 million in his 401ks he needs to do RMD on and around 5 million in stocks and two million bonds.

In retirement he still has a high income. Plus his NY house is big with high taxes and he in not eligible for reduced taxes when a senior due to income.

These people are going to keep coming, my brothers RMD will be $250k and his other stuff brings in $200k. He is making 450k in retirement or not.


Why in the world would someone worth millions ($450k retirement withdrawals!), retire to FLORIDA?? So many nicer places.


Like where with warm weather all year? Nicer than say, Palm Beach or Naples or Coral Gables? Sure, I'd want a place in Colorado or Tahoe as well at that income, but for my permanent home, I can't think of much better that Florida.

California has nicer weather sure. But the water is freezing most of the coast. And the cost of living for a retiree... no.
Anonymous
Post 01/25/2023 14:17     Subject: Re:Florida Real Estate is off the hook
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:I don’t get Florida. We have to go to visit my in laws and it has bad vibes. I just have a creepy feeling the whole time. This started way pre-Trump so I don’t think it’s political. I didn’t even know about The Villages then, or it didn’t exist yet idk.


Same. I know there are some nice areas but mostly it seems like a low class, cheesy, and gaudy culture.


Well, that creepy feeling comes from the brain drain and youth drain for the last generations -- anyone who wanted a professional career generally moved to the NE or California for college and career. The people who were left went to UF and became teachers or ambulance chaser lawyers, etc. But the population has a donut hole of people older than high school, you have a lot of old people, some middle age, but most youth try to move elsewhere if they can.
Anonymous
Post 01/25/2023 14:14     Subject: Florida Real Estate is off the hook
Anonymous wrote:Also we have the richest generation ever retiring.

My mother and MIL in NY were lower income widows.

NY reduces property tax on lower incomes and SS/Pension type income barely gets taxes at all. Both owned their small cheap to maintain starter homes outright.

Now compare this to my older brother near retrieve. He has almost 5 million in his 401ks he needs to do RMD on and around 5 million in stocks and two million bonds.

In retirement he still has a high income. Plus his NY house is big with high taxes and he in not eligible for reduced taxes when a senior due to income.

These people are going to keep coming, my brothers RMD will be $250k and his other stuff brings in $200k. He is making 450k in retirement or not.


Why in the world would someone worth millions ($450k retirement withdrawals!), retire to FLORIDA?? So many nicer places.
Anonymous
Post 01/25/2023 13:55     Subject: Re:Florida Real Estate is off the hook
Anonymous wrote:I don’t get Florida. We have to go to visit my in laws and it has bad vibes. I just have a creepy feeling the whole time. This started way pre-Trump so I don’t think it’s political. I didn’t even know about The Villages then, or it didn’t exist yet idk.


Same. I know there are some nice areas but mostly it seems like a low class, cheesy, and gaudy culture.
Anonymous
Post 01/25/2023 13:21     Subject: Florida Real Estate is off the hook
Anonymous wrote:Today I was talking to colleagues and we all plan to move to Florida. Just saying.


Florida's not last on my list of states in which to retire, but it sur isn't at the top. Bottom 25 for sure, perhaps bottom 15. It's probably not so low for my spouse, but still not at the top. Is we really needed to retire to a low tax state, we'd choose Delaware.