Anonymous wrote:MoCo is roughly 62% Dem, 15% Republican, and 24% independent (no party affiliation) based on Sept 2022 data. Let's say Sully got all the Republican and Ind votes. That puts him at 39%. He needs another 11%, which would be about 18% of Dems to vote for him.

In the primary, Elrich got 39% of the Dem vote, Blair got 39% of the Dem vote, and Reimer got 20% of the Dem vote.

So.. would at least 30% of Blair voters decide to vote for Sully? It's possible. A lot of Blair voters were vehemently anti-Elrich. Then that's not even looking at what Riemer supporters would do.

Of course, I'm still making a lot of assumptions, a big one being the Independents will go for Sully, and also that we'll see even turnout among those 3 party groups. It's still a bit of a long shot for Sully, but it's not impossible either.

This might be a compelling argument if it weren't for the evidence from 2018, when Floreen ran as an independent. Elrich still got 60% of the vote. The percentage of Dems who would actually switch votes (even for an independent) are miniscule, the number who would vote R are even smaller.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Did Sullivan vote for Trump?

Nobody sill ever know. Voting is private. But he did condemn Jan 6

Does Sullivan still condemn Jan. 6? Lots of Republicans condemned it at the time and quickly reversed course.

Sullivan refused to answer when asked if he supports Cox for governor.

I don’t think he is a typical pol. I think he’s a very moderate R. I can’t imagine that he has changed his mind about that, and the statement he wrote on 1/6 is still posted.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Yes, "lifelong Democrats" are definitely aiming for "balance" following the Roe overturning. This is definitely legit and not at all a transparent troll.

Troll better, honestly. I like my trolls with enough substance to really chew on.

It just kills you that there are Dems out there that don’t 100% agree with you and are willing to violate the ironclad dem rules and vote for someone other than a dem…

NP. I'm no troll. I've been a registered Dem since 1985

I've lived in DC since 1992 and those of you who were also here will agree, grudgingly or not, that the Control Board and Tony Williams -- and Barry being forced out -- are why we're here today. With our bike lanes and dog parks and roof parties and Wharf and Navy Yard and all that cute stuff. Wouldn't be possible without top-down, "conservative" imposed discipline

I've always tried to find the most conservative LOCAL pols to vote for, and usually no one is with me. This election will be no different I'm sure.

Maybe we can decriminalize recreational ketamine next year! Or MDMA? Only Allen and Nadeau know for sure.

MoCo is roughly 62% Dem, 15% Republican, and 24% independent (no party affiliation) based on Sept 2022 data. Let's say Sully got all the Republican and Ind votes. That puts him at 39%. He needs another 11%, which would be about 18% of Dems to vote for him.

In the primary, Elrich got 39% of the Dem vote, Blair got 39% of the Dem vote, and Reimer got 20% of the Dem vote.

So.. would at least 30% of Blair voters decide to vote for Sully? It's possible. A lot of Blair voters were vehemently anti-Elrich. Then that's not even looking at what Riemer supporters would do.

Of course, I'm still making a lot of assumptions, a big one being the Independents will go for Sully, and also that we'll see even turnout among those 3 party groups. It's still a bit of a long shot for Sully, but it's not impossible either.

Anonymous wrote:Since this is an AMA and no one has actually asked you a question, I'll bite. Do you actually think Reardon Sullivan has any chance in hell of winning (which, newsflash, he has a 0% chance of winning, and the only question is if he will lose by more than 30 pts), or are you just voting for him because you don't like Elrich? Because I don't like Elrich but I can't bring myself to vote for a Republican these days, so I just didn't vote for anyone for county exec.

Not OP and I don’t think he will win. But I would LOVE for him to be close enough to really wake Marc up. Sully won’t get that close unless a bunch of Democrats vote for him. And that’s the only thing that may possibly make Marc wake up and start trying to govern for the whole county and not just himself.

Same here. ALready dropped off my ballet with my vote for Sully. And Moore for Governor.

What does AMA stand for?

Since this is an AMA and no one has actually asked you a question, I'll bite. Do you actually think Reardon Sullivan has any chance in hell of winning (which, newsflash, he has a 0% chance of winning, and the only question is if he will lose by more than 30 pts), or are you just voting for him because you don't like Elrich? Because I don't like Elrich but I can't bring myself to vote for a Republican these days, so I just didn't vote for anyone for county exec.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Democrats may have gone far left but Republicans have basically shown that they will not abide with representative Democracy if it means they will lose.
They will choose dictatorship over losing the culture wars.

I think preserving the Republic is more important than policy differences but alas, l am a minority.
Most voters will sell their rights for cheaper gas and lower taxes.

I agree and that's why I voted Raskin and Van Hollen. At the national level. But voting Republican at the local level is not a threat. In fact, in MoCo, it would set up a healthy policy debate that would lead to much better policy than what we are getting from the echo chamber.

Republican is a threat everywhere. No repub for MoCo

It’s this exclusionary, hyperbolic thinking that compels me to vote for Sullivan. Republicans aren’t universally bad. Democrats aren’t universally good. I don’t have to look any further than Montgomery County’s council to see that. I’ll take a Republican over more of the same, which is a council and current exec that erodes away effective governance.

- somebody who almost always votes Democratic but agrees with others in this thread about the need for balance

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Democrats may have gone far left but Republicans have basically shown that they will not abide with representative Democracy if it means they will lose.
They will choose dictatorship over losing the culture wars.

I think preserving the Republic is more important than policy differences but alas, l am a minority.
Most voters will sell their rights for cheaper gas and lower taxes.

I agree and that's why I voted Raskin and Van Hollen. At the national level. But voting Republican at the local level is not a threat. In fact, in MoCo, it would set up a healthy policy debate that would lead to much better policy than what we are getting from the echo chamber.

Republican is a threat everywhere. No repub for MoCo

Anonymous wrote:Democrats may have gone far left but Republicans have basically shown that they will not abide with representative Democracy if it means they will lose.
They will choose dictatorship over losing the culture wars.

I think preserving the Republic is more important than policy differences but alas, l am a minority.
Most voters will sell their rights for cheaper gas and lower taxes.

I agree and that's why I voted Raskin and Van Hollen. At the national level. But voting Republican at the local level is not a threat. In fact, in MoCo, it would set up a healthy policy debate that would lead to much better policy than what we are getting from the echo chamber.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Did Sullivan vote for Trump?

Nobody sill ever know. Voting is private. But he did condemn Jan 6

Does Sullivan still condemn Jan. 6? Lots of Republicans condemned it at the time and quickly reversed course.

Sullivan refused to answer when asked if he supports Cox for governor.

Absolutely. No clue about Cox though.

*completely opposed, not compelled!

Anonymous wrote:Me too! I'm old enough to remember begging Marc Elrich to open the pools and playgrounds. He tried to bully the super to close school THIS JANUARY.

The Democrats that run MoCo were a nightmare during Covid. I can’t forget that. The Democrats keep harping on Jan 6 and abortion, but as a female, non-White working mom, those two issues are nowhere near the top of my list of concerns.

Montgomery County is run exclusively by Democrats and these are my issues with the Democrats and why feel we need candidates who will balance out their nonsense.

1) Increasing crime in my immediate neighborhood and the county as a whole (The progressive Democrat-led criminal justice ideas are not working in our communities and in our schools. We need a change.)

2) The extended Covid school building closures (This area kept schools closed for way longer than we should have. The teachers union and the Democrats are to blame)

3) Thrive 2050 (I, and many other MoCo residents were compelled opposed to Thrive, but the local Democrat politicians didn’t care one bit.)

4) The DCPS Covid vaccine mandates (I know it’s DC and not MCPS, but it’s too close for comfort when I see a Democrat-run city implementing these kinds of anti-science policies. It’s terrifying how far the Democrats are willing to go to unnecessarily force this shot on our kids.)

The Democrats will win easily in November, from the local races to the Governor’s race. But I can’t support them any more. I have plenty more reasons, and DH and I are most definitely #DoneWithDemocrats for the foreseeable future.

Anonymous wrote:Democrats may have gone far left but Republicans have basically shown that they will not abide with representative Democracy if it means they will lose.
They will choose dictatorship over losing the culture wars.

I think preserving the Republic is more important than policy differences but alas, l am a minority.
Most voters will sell their rights for cheaper gas and lower taxes.

Don't listen to these repubs pretending to be democrats. DCUM is a fantasy world. The vast majority of MoCo voters won't be fooled by their trickery.