Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I just think this has to slow. I’ve been a RE agent since 2008. In all of those years, my buyers found houses. Even in red hot markets, we’d compete against 1-2 offers, with the contract price being full price, and maybe 20k above in a bidding war. I’ve NEVER heard of 20+ offers on marginally livable homes, escalating 100-400k over asking and blatantly accepting that they will be 100k plus under appraisal. How can this continue?

Exactly. You've been a real estate agent since 2008. This was all very common, even worse in the early 2000s. And prior high appreciation periods before that.

Actually before that I was a homebuyer and investor. And it was not like this. I bought my first home in 2002. It wasn’t like this because there was at least some gentrification underpinning the frenzy. Jim Abdo had started building up Logan Circle and they secured the Whole Foods lease. 14th Street, U Street etc all started gentrifying. Was it insane? Sure. I was offered a Cleveland Park condo for $120k in 1998. By 2003 it was worth triple. But at least there was some construction and investment driving the boom coupled with loose lending standards and low rates (which are actually only slightly lower than rates today interestingly) This is just… desperate people borrowing from retirement and trust funds.

Inflation is gonna be 10%. Housing is inflation proof

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I just think this has to slow. I’ve been a RE agent since 2008. In all of those years, my buyers found houses. Even in red hot markets, we’d compete against 1-2 offers, with the contract price being full price, and maybe 20k above in a bidding war. I’ve NEVER heard of 20+ offers on marginally livable homes, escalating 100-400k over asking and blatantly accepting that they will be 100k plus under appraisal. How can this continue?

I haven't seen one person claim it can (although I am sure they are out there).

The question is will it slow, stagnate or recede? That's what no one knows, and those that claim they do know have not shown convincing work.

This. Slowing down, ams stagnation, aren’t the same as a price drop.

I don't think prices ever drop unless there is enough economic upheaval to force a large group of homeowners to sell who otherwise wouldn't choose to take a loss

But prices can go down from their current value, and a LOTof homeowners would still not have to take a loss. A lot of people bought prior to 2021 - they could still make a profit with prices going down even 10-15%. It's the people who bought in the last year who would have to take a loss.

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You'd think so, but it doesn't work that way. The only times that prices go down (not just stagnate or grow more slowly, but go down) is when there is an economic situation that forces people to sell

Says who? People sell for all sorts of reasons. If prices went down 30%, I would gladly sell the starter home I bought in 2017 which would still fetch at least 10% more than I paid, to upgrade into a better house with more space for our growing family. In fact, there’s pretty much nothing that will keep us in this house much longer, we will sell regardless of what the market is doing, but we’re waiting out the craziness for a bit longer.

This is on top of all of the reasons people actually need to sell that exist in a strong economy (moving for a job, divorce, death).

Prices dropping depends on people needing to sell. So, a broader crash would definitely bring prices down. But otherwise they might just stagnate because people will just stay put and wait it out if it's not a good time to sell