Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:When all 3 branches have been taken over by the authoritarians, we are effed

The end game for Mitch and Co was always the Courts. They filled courts with Federalist Society hacks, stole a Supreme Court seat and now have a supreme court super majority

Seriously, how can people not see that we have no more guardrails if the Rs seize back power through their election schemes?

So show me with *facts* not emotion that the SCOTUS is now authoritarian. Seems like it just isn't leaning in your favor, but not authoritarian.

And how can you argue guardrails when Democrats were actively trying to get rid of guardrails such as the filibuster?

And last I checked, dems controlled the house and senate.

When you mention election schemes, are you referring to stolen elections? Can you elaborate?

Anonymous wrote:Civil War

No, I'm not kidding

And they are putting the mechanisms in place right now in plain sight to overturn free and fair elections

Americans need to wake the hell up. You're either on the side of Democracy or you aren't

BlueFredneck wrote:We're assuming that:
1) states initially certified results
2) the December flurry of lawsuits went down in flames as before.
3) no evidence of actual fraud emerged.

Remember, New!Congress has already been seated.

I think Perdue's term had ended pending results of the election. Loeffler got to stick around, since she was filling out a term that naturally expired on 1/3/2023. Perdue had to go back home since his term had already expired and his re-election was not yet done. So ... raw #'s, barring any illness or such:

House Raw #s: D 222, R 213
Senate Raw #s: R 51, D 48
House delegations by state: R 30, D 19, Split 1 (several R delegations do have members that voted to certify the election, so it's not as impregnable as it might seem). I think IA had a House member that hadn't been seated just yet.

I'm assuming your POD (point of departure) is January 6, Pence says some mumbo-jumbo about electors in several states (enough to prevent Biden from reaching 270). There is NO violent storming of the Capital at least not here. I don't know how openly it's known by Congress, law enforcement, DoD, etc., etc., that there's a few hundred well-armed militia types prepared to move in "if necessary."

Democrats demand a vote to halt the counting. I know they'd have won in the House and I can't see Romney or Murkowski sitting on their hands (could this be filibustered?)

Lawsuits are filed within minutes, both by Pence asserting his right to refuse to certify the results, and by Democrats asserting Pence was going off script.

Never Trump Republicans angrily denounce everything involved with this. McConnell stays quiet (for now).

A motion to impeach Trump and Pence is filed and passes the House by the end of the day, probably with 30-40 Republicans joining in this time.

Multiple Cabinet officials resign in protest. All living former Presidents issue a joint statement insisting that Trump step down at noon on January 20.

The Dow goes down 8-10%. Two circuit breakers are tripped. The Fed meets in all sorts of emergency meetings.

The bleeding in the Dow is staunched - by day's end - by the Fed issuing a statement that quantitative easing would be unlimited. The ECB, BoJ, and CCB all issue similar statements.

In the next 24-48 hours, protests emerge all over the nation, dwarfing the George Floyd protests in size, and with an eclectic mix of races, political viewpoints, etc. International media is horrified.

I would not be surprised if 20 million people turned up across the nation, with DC, LA, NYC, and Chicago pushing in the upper six figures.

Some turn violent, with a mix of "native" violence, police/alt-right provocateurs, and excess police force turning formerly peaceful protests into violence. In a few cases, police join the demonstrators. Again, all this dwarfs the George Floyd protests.

Smaller (relatively speaking) protests in support of Pence's move emerge.

CEOs meet with each other, political leaders, and other movers and shakers, insisting on some sort of order. Celebrities of varying degrees of influence wring their hands, with a few exceptions celebrating Pence's move.

I'm assuming the 12th Amendment debate in the House would start the evening of the 6th and go on through the 7th and 8th. If we go off voting to certify, Biden would still win, as WY, AK, SD, and ND all voted to certify, IA and PA would have a R "defector" each, and ID would be split. Several other states would need just one R to "defect" and split their delegations or turn them to the D's.

I suspect - but could be wrong - that Biden would win the House delegation vote by something like a 27-20-3 split.

This is another opportunity for Trump to have a rally and a possible violent storming of the Capital if things don't look to be going his way here. I don't see 1/8 ending in this timeline any differently than 1/6 did in OTL.

SCOTUS would've been forced to rule before 1/20. If Biden wins the 12th Amendment vote, SCOTUS would rule that was done all good and proper and the question is now moot. If Biden lost, it'd require a ruling on whether Pence's move to refuse to certify was legally sound. I *think* they'd have voted that it wasn't sound but it would be a 6-3 or 7-2 vote here.

Bush v Gore was accepted simply b/c Florida was *that* close and both parties seemed to indicate they'd have conceded gracefully. The closest state in 2020 (AZ) was a good TEN times the widest possible margin in FL in 2000 in raw votes. In terms of percentage, the closest state was GA, a good TWENTY-FIVE times bigger margin than FL 2000.

Inauguration - if there had been no large scale actual violence beforehand, I could see the establishment being caught flat footed and things turning real ugly, real quick as the die hard Stop the Steal people would've been emboldened and not shamed.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think most people would just go along. It would have the air of legality to it, and most people just don’t pay much attention. If they did, we wouldn’t be where we are.

Yup, lots of people would've shrugged their shoulders and gone back to their social media habits. The veneer of legality would keep most Americans placated. Additionally, the vast majority of people don't even understand what is in Constitution, how elections are conducted, etc. They are wholly ignorant as to the process.

Frankly, it takes the money of only one radical & committed billionaire to fund the whole thing. A single billionaire can take down the US government if they want it bad enough.

you mean like russian oligarchs?

Ironically, Putin came down hard on the oligarchs because he understood the power they would wield with that much money. They are under his thumb and do his bidding. The are protected and free to operate, if they support Putin and stay away from domestic opposition.

In Russia, the oligarchs are an arm of the state. In the US, oligarchs are trying to take over the state.

The Oligarchs and Putin have a stasis. There is absolutely no "Putin came down hard" on Oligarchs. Fiction.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

BlueFredneck wrote:We're assuming that:
1) states initially certified results
2) the December flurry of lawsuits went down in flames as before.
3) no evidence of actual fraud emerged.

Remember, New!Congress has already been seated.

I think Perdue's term had ended pending results of the election. Loeffler got to stick around, since she was filling out a term that naturally expired on 1/3/2023. Perdue had to go back home since his term had already expired and his re-election was not yet done. So ... raw #'s, barring any illness or such:

House Raw #s: D 222, R 213
Senate Raw #s: R 51, D 48
House delegations by state: R 30, D 19, Split 1 (several R delegations do have members that voted to certify the election, so it's not as impregnable as it might seem). I think IA had a House member that hadn't been seated just yet.

I'm assuming your POD (point of departure) is January 6, Pence says some mumbo-jumbo about electors in several states (enough to prevent Biden from reaching 270). There is NO violent storming of the Capital at least not here. I don't know how openly it's known by Congress, law enforcement, DoD, etc., etc., that there's a few hundred well-armed militia types prepared to move in "if necessary."

Democrats demand a vote to halt the counting. I know they'd have won in the House and I can't see Romney or Murkowski sitting on their hands (could this be filibustered?)

Lawsuits are filed within minutes, both by Pence asserting his right to refuse to certify the results, and by Democrats asserting Pence was going off script.

Never Trump Republicans angrily denounce everything involved with this. McConnell stays quiet (for now).

A motion to impeach Trump and Pence is filed and passes the House by the end of the day, probably with 30-40 Republicans joining in this time.

Multiple Cabinet officials resign in protest. All living former Presidents issue a joint statement insisting that Trump step down at noon on January 20.

The Dow goes down 8-10%. Two circuit breakers are tripped. The Fed meets in all sorts of emergency meetings.

The bleeding in the Dow is staunched - by day's end - by the Fed issuing a statement that quantitative easing would be unlimited. The ECB, BoJ, and CCB all issue similar statements.

In the next 24-48 hours, protests emerge all over the nation, dwarfing the George Floyd protests in size, and with an eclectic mix of races, political viewpoints, etc. International media is horrified.

I would not be surprised if 20 million people turned up across the nation, with DC, LA, NYC, and Chicago pushing in the upper six figures.

Some turn violent, with a mix of "native" violence, police/alt-right provocateurs, and excess police force turning formerly peaceful protests into violence. In a few cases, police join the demonstrators. Again, all this dwarfs the George Floyd protests.

Smaller (relatively speaking) protests in support of Pence's move emerge.

CEOs meet with each other, political leaders, and other movers and shakers, insisting on some sort of order. Celebrities of varying degrees of influence wring their hands, with a few exceptions celebrating Pence's move.

I'm assuming the 12th Amendment debate in the House would start the evening of the 6th and go on through the 7th and 8th. If we go off voting to certify, Biden would still win, as WY, AK, SD, and ND all voted to certify, IA and PA would have a R "defector" each, and ID would be split. Several other states would need just one R to "defect" and split their delegations or turn them to the D's.

I suspect - but could be wrong - that Biden would win the House delegation vote by something like a 27-20-3 split.

This is another opportunity for Trump to have a rally and a possible violent storming of the Capital if things don't look to be going his way here. I don't see 1/8 ending in this timeline any differently than 1/6 did in OTL.

SCOTUS would've been forced to rule before 1/20. If Biden wins the 12th Amendment vote, SCOTUS would rule that was done all good and proper and the question is now moot. If Biden lost, it'd require a ruling on whether Pence's move to refuse to certify was legally sound. I *think* they'd have voted that it wasn't sound but it would be a 6-3 or 7-2 vote here.

Bush v Gore was accepted simply b/c Florida was *that* close and both parties seemed to indicate they'd have conceded gracefully. The closest state in 2020 (AZ) was a good TEN times the widest possible margin in FL in 2000 in raw votes. In terms of percentage, the closest state was GA, a good TWENTY-FIVE times bigger margin than FL 2000.

Inauguration - if there had been no large scale actual violence beforehand, I could see the establishment being caught flat footed and things turning real ugly, real quick as the die hard Stop the Steal people would've been emboldened and not shamed.

This right here. JFC.

Democrats pulled together a f((king pussy parade of millions right after Trump was duly elected in 2017! But if the election wasn't certified in 2020, people would just roll over? Are you kidding me? Are you the "I'm going to mask forever because Joe said so crowd?"

Maybe those who are totally falling in line with everything the government tells them, but not all of us are lemmings. And there are processes in place for this kind of thing, which is why we have 3 branches of government.

Ok, but the premise here is that SCOTUS decided in favor of Trump, so there are no legal options left. There could be lots of protests, but that doesn't do much, particularly in the face of a government that by definition doesn't care about the popular will.

Trump was counting on civil unrest to send the troops in. I just do not see many Democrats doing anything. The elected democrats would just say our legal option are done. Let’s move on. Trump could let the “moderate” stay in their offices and everything would settle down in a week or two. The dems do not have anything like Fox News or conservative media.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

BlueFredneck wrote:We're assuming that:
1) states initially certified results
2) the December flurry of lawsuits went down in flames as before.
3) no evidence of actual fraud emerged.

Remember, New!Congress has already been seated.

I think Perdue's term had ended pending results of the election. Loeffler got to stick around, since she was filling out a term that naturally expired on 1/3/2023. Perdue had to go back home since his term had already expired and his re-election was not yet done. So ... raw #'s, barring any illness or such:

House Raw #s: D 222, R 213
Senate Raw #s: R 51, D 48
House delegations by state: R 30, D 19, Split 1 (several R delegations do have members that voted to certify the election, so it's not as impregnable as it might seem). I think IA had a House member that hadn't been seated just yet.

I'm assuming your POD (point of departure) is January 6, Pence says some mumbo-jumbo about electors in several states (enough to prevent Biden from reaching 270). There is NO violent storming of the Capital at least not here. I don't know how openly it's known by Congress, law enforcement, DoD, etc., etc., that there's a few hundred well-armed militia types prepared to move in "if necessary."

Democrats demand a vote to halt the counting. I know they'd have won in the House and I can't see Romney or Murkowski sitting on their hands (could this be filibustered?)

Lawsuits are filed within minutes, both by Pence asserting his right to refuse to certify the results, and by Democrats asserting Pence was going off script.

Never Trump Republicans angrily denounce everything involved with this. McConnell stays quiet (for now).

A motion to impeach Trump and Pence is filed and passes the House by the end of the day, probably with 30-40 Republicans joining in this time.

Multiple Cabinet officials resign in protest. All living former Presidents issue a joint statement insisting that Trump step down at noon on January 20.

The Dow goes down 8-10%. Two circuit breakers are tripped. The Fed meets in all sorts of emergency meetings.

The bleeding in the Dow is staunched - by day's end - by the Fed issuing a statement that quantitative easing would be unlimited. The ECB, BoJ, and CCB all issue similar statements.

In the next 24-48 hours, protests emerge all over the nation, dwarfing the George Floyd protests in size, and with an eclectic mix of races, political viewpoints, etc. International media is horrified.

I would not be surprised if 20 million people turned up across the nation, with DC, LA, NYC, and Chicago pushing in the upper six figures.

Some turn violent, with a mix of "native" violence, police/alt-right provocateurs, and excess police force turning formerly peaceful protests into violence. In a few cases, police join the demonstrators. Again, all this dwarfs the George Floyd protests.

Smaller (relatively speaking) protests in support of Pence's move emerge.

CEOs meet with each other, political leaders, and other movers and shakers, insisting on some sort of order. Celebrities of varying degrees of influence wring their hands, with a few exceptions celebrating Pence's move.

I'm assuming the 12th Amendment debate in the House would start the evening of the 6th and go on through the 7th and 8th. If we go off voting to certify, Biden would still win, as WY, AK, SD, and ND all voted to certify, IA and PA would have a R "defector" each, and ID would be split. Several other states would need just one R to "defect" and split their delegations or turn them to the D's.

I suspect - but could be wrong - that Biden would win the House delegation vote by something like a 27-20-3 split.

This is another opportunity for Trump to have a rally and a possible violent storming of the Capital if things don't look to be going his way here. I don't see 1/8 ending in this timeline any differently than 1/6 did in OTL.

SCOTUS would've been forced to rule before 1/20. If Biden wins the 12th Amendment vote, SCOTUS would rule that was done all good and proper and the question is now moot. If Biden lost, it'd require a ruling on whether Pence's move to refuse to certify was legally sound. I *think* they'd have voted that it wasn't sound but it would be a 6-3 or 7-2 vote here.

Bush v Gore was accepted simply b/c Florida was *that* close and both parties seemed to indicate they'd have conceded gracefully. The closest state in 2020 (AZ) was a good TEN times the widest possible margin in FL in 2000 in raw votes. In terms of percentage, the closest state was GA, a good TWENTY-FIVE times bigger margin than FL 2000.

Inauguration - if there had been no large scale actual violence beforehand, I could see the establishment being caught flat footed and things turning real ugly, real quick as the die hard Stop the Steal people would've been emboldened and not shamed.

This right here. JFC.

Democrats pulled together a f((king pussy parade of millions right after Trump was duly elected in 2017! But if the election wasn't certified in 2020, people would just roll over? Are you kidding me? Are you the "I'm going to mask forever because Joe said so crowd?"

Maybe those who are totally falling in line with everything the government tells them, but not all of us are lemmings. And there are processes in place for this kind of thing, which is why we have 3 branches of government.

Ok, but the premise here is that SCOTUS decided in favor of Trump, so there are no legal options left. There could be lots of protests, but that doesn't do much, particularly in the face of a government that by definition doesn't care about the popular will.

Anonymous wrote:I think most people would have gone back to normal, the media would “both sides” everything, and the corrupt police forces would start doing their thing.

I also think you’d get a series of increasingly radicalized liberals who never before considered any sort of violence who would start fighting back. Not with big fancy displays of guns, but by doctors abandoning hospitals in rural Trumpy areas, internet actors attacking rural broadband infrastructure, massive disinvestment in red state economies, and the complete social ostracism of those complicit in the scheme. Never obvious of course, just excluding their kids from play dates and so on. I also think you might see people increasingly take the resistance out to the suburbs and rural areas, instead of just violence in the cities. Burned churches, destroyed Walmarts, wrecked roads. The sort of attacks that could cut entire blood red communities off from everything they need to survive.

The media would of course portray the freedom fighters as terrorists, the troops would mount an obnoxious over response, and next thing you know we are in full civil war. Russia or China sides with the Republicans, they push down the rebellion, brain drain ensues, America is a sad joke by century’s end.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:When all 3 branches have been taken over by the authoritarians, we are effed

The end game for Mitch and Co was always the Courts. They filled courts with Federalist Society hacks, stole a Supreme Court seat and now have a supreme court super majority

Seriously, how can people not see that we have no more guardrails if the Rs seize back power through their election schemes?

So show me with *facts* not emotion that the SCOTUS is now authoritarian. Seems like it just isn't leaning in your favor, but not authoritarian.

And how can you argue guardrails when Democrats were actively trying to get rid of guardrails such as the filibuster?

And last I checked, dems controlled the house and senate.

When you mention election schemes, are you referring to stolen elections? Can you elaborate?

Anonymous wrote:When all 3 branches have been taken over by the authoritarians, we are effed

The end game for Mitch and Co was always the Courts. They filled courts with Federalist Society hacks, stole a Supreme Court seat and now have a supreme court super majority

Seriously, how can people not see that we have no more guardrails if the Rs seize back power through their election schemes?

Anonymous wrote:When all 3 branches have been taken over by the authoritarians, we are effed

The end game for Mitch and Co was always the Courts. They filled courts with Federalist Society hacks, stole a Supreme Court seat and now have a supreme court super majority

Seriously, how can people not see that we have no more guardrails if the Rs seize back power through their election schemes?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think most people would just go along. It would have the air of legality to it, and most people just don’t pay much attention. If they did, we wouldn’t be where we are.

Yup, lots of people would've shrugged their shoulders and gone back to their social media habits. The veneer of legality would keep most Americans placated. Additionally, the vast majority of people don't even understand what is in Constitution, how elections are conducted, etc. They are wholly ignorant as to the process.

Frankly, it takes the money of only one radical & committed billionaire to fund the whole thing. A single billionaire can take down the US government if they want it bad enough.

you mean like russian oligarchs?

Ironically, Putin came down hard on the oligarchs because he understood the power they would wield with that much money. They are under his thumb and do his bidding. The are protected and free to operate, if they support Putin and stay away from domestic opposition.

In Russia, the oligarchs are an arm of the state. In the US, oligarchs are trying to take over the state.