Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The problem is Trump supporters think social distancing and stay at home orders are for Liberal pu££ies. Trump politicized this whole thing when he said it was a hoax.

I am so sick of the politicization of this crap. I am by no means a Trump supporter and I favor opening things up soon. Why is it so difficult to realize that thinking a virus that has a less than 2% fatality rate is not worth shutting down the world and causing a global depression over? This is thorny because it does cause people to consider how high of a death rate would be worth it. The people who think the Coronavirus death rate is worth it presumably don’t think that the number of deaths caused by the flu are worth it. Does that mean they value the economy over lives? Of course not! Well it’s the same thing with people such as myself who don’t think the less than 2% fatality rate of Coronavirus warrants this response. How high would the % have to go for me to think this response warrants it? I really don’t know. It’s not something I’ve ever had to consider before now and it’s really hard to put a hard number on it, but not 2%. I don’t think that makes me a monster, and it certainly doesn’t make me a Trump supporter.

Sorry you can't do math or listen to public health experts. A virus that spreads quickly, kills 2%, and hospitalizes 20%, is a disaster. There's a reason why we fight so hard against disease as a species -- because it is enormously disruptive. If you ACTUALLY cared you would be asking why the US response was so piss-poor compared to Germany, Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong ... Somehow they are managing this without having to completely shut down. Do some research to figure out what they are doing differently, then come back here with the right questions.

jsteele wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

jsteele wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Open up, and just keep social distancing and wearing a mask. Done.

It is unrealistic to shut down everything for 18 months. That vaccine Billy Boy is funding might be worse than the virus itself because it won’t have time to be tested.

But people have to get back to work. The backlash of shutting down the country will lead to deaths due to food supplies and shortages, transportation, people who have health issues will die and people with mental issues will end up killing themselves.

You can’t lock someone in their house with a business that they are using that to survive away from them. This will lead to devastating economic impacts and lead to more deaths. But this is a virus, not a death sentence. Anytime you step out your house, it’s a risk. We can’t live our lives in fear.

If you open up without proper testing, you are guaranteed to have a resurgence of disease. If you are comfortable getting infected, don't let me stop you. Feel free infect yourself and your family. Just don't expect others to take that risk on your behalf.

The risk is minuscule. The fatality rate is less than 2%! And judging by recent reports that are many more asymptomatic cases than previously thought, the fatality rate would be even lower.

Great. Feel free to end social distancing for yourself and your family. Lead the way.

I had to go into Walmart today to get toilet paper. There is not one roll online to be had. I wore a mask but if you think there was ANY social distancing going on, you're insane. It was mobbed and chaotic.

It is what it is. Am I supposed to now isolate myself from everyone for two weeks?

So here's my take.

None of the phase 1, 2, or 3 stuff will work without proper testing. And that's testing that actually works. These could be a variety of tests, but we'll have to do better than the botched CDC test that contributed to a month delay in testing. That was pathetic. These tests also really need to be easy to use. When will these tests be readily available? I hope within a month. Then we can do the all-important tracing and quarantining on the big scale we need to.

The thing I'm struggling with is the competing theories about large numbers of cases that are asymptomatic or "mild." Studies from Germany, one county in CA (can't remember which one), and perhaps the Diamond Princess cruise ship numbers lean in the direction of saying that there a lot of folks out there with the virus who didn't even know they had this or had mild cases. To be sure, there's contrary evidence and we just don't know. IF the number of serious cases and death rate is low, then a reasonable appraisal regarding reopening could be made, assuming, of course, that people take the necessary precautions and vulnerable groups voluntarily self-quarantine.

We need more time to see. We have to wait at least until June (at the earliest) to even think about gradual reopenings. Then, perhaps, warmer weather may also help. Inconclusive on that point, obviously. I believe the scientists who are optimistic about a vaccine being ready in 12-18 months.

This is in politics, so I assume that people's political preferences are guiding their recommendations. Here are mine. Trump will lose, rightly, over this, because he bungled the response (and for all the other reasons). People are just sick of seeing him and listening to his voice. I supported Bernie. I can't stand the fact that the Democrats are running with a corporate establishment figure. That's my full disclosure.

Anonymous wrote:The problem is Trump supporters think social distancing and stay at home orders are for Liberal pu££ies. Trump politicized this whole thing when he said it was a hoax.

I am so sick of the politicization of this crap. I am by no means a Trump supporter and I favor opening things up soon. Why is it so difficult to realize that thinking a virus that has a less than 2% fatality rate is not worth shutting down the world and causing a global depression over? This is thorny because it does cause people to consider how high of a death rate would be worth it. The people who think the Coronavirus death rate is worth it presumably don’t think that the number of deaths caused by the flu are worth it. Does that mean they value the economy over lives? Of course not! Well it’s the same thing with people such as myself who don’t think the less than 2% fatality rate of Coronavirus warrants this response. How high would the % have to go for me to think this response warrants it? I really don’t know. It’s not something I’ve ever had to consider before now and it’s really hard to put a hard number on it, but not 2%. I don’t think that makes me a monster, and it certainly doesn’t make me a Trump supporter.

jsteele wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

jsteele wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

jsteele wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Pretty certain that at least some people who aren’t part of the “ruling” class would benefit if some businesses opened up if it was deemed safe by reasonable governors of their respective states.

They will benefit right up to the point that they are infected with coronavirus.

And 99% plus will survive it and go on to see another day.

That would be a mortality rate 10 times that of the regular flu and would result in potentially millions of deaths (depending on the spread of infection).

But again, feel free to risk your and your family's lives. Just don't expect others to do it for you.

Jeff, I really don’t see how you see coming into contact with a virus that has such a low fatality rate as “risking your life”.

It is because of how contagious it is. Because it spreads so widely, even a small percentage is a large number. There are plenty of reports of people younger than me with no pre-existing conditions who were in good health dying from COVID.

But to be clear, it is not my life at risk. My wife and I work at home normally and our kids' schools will not have in-person classes this school year. We will be protected. I am worried about those who will be forced to take risks that most of the loudest voices to open won't take themselves. If you are willing to risk your and your family's health, I fully support your acting as a guinea pig for the rest of us.

Jeff would you agree there needs to be a middle ground though. Social distancing and mask usage. I'm curious how long are you advocating for stay at home otherwise, months till 2021?!?!?!?!?!

Anonymous wrote:

jsteele wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

jsteele wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Pretty certain that at least some people who aren’t part of the “ruling” class would benefit if some businesses opened up if it was deemed safe by reasonable governors of their respective states.

They will benefit right up to the point that they are infected with coronavirus.

And 99% plus will survive it and go on to see another day.

That would be a mortality rate 10 times that of the regular flu and would result in potentially millions of deaths (depending on the spread of infection).

But again, feel free to risk your and your family's lives. Just don't expect others to do it for you.

Jeff, I really don’t see how you see coming into contact with a virus that has such a low fatality rate as “risking your life”.

DP. And I really don't see how you think that ~1% of people dying of a disease that spreads like wildfire and can't be contained is NBD and won't have its own, worse, economic impact. In the US, that could be something like 1-2M ppl, if you assume that 40-70% of us will get it in the next year. And that's not even counting the fact that a much higher fraction (maybe 10-15%) have severe cases, that can lead to permanent lung damage. And, even worse, there's growing evidence that even mild-to-moderate cases can lead to permanent organ damage.

I posted elsewhere, but in February I was an athletic, healthy mother of two. I've been sick for 5 weeks, with what I'm told is probably COVID...but I can't get tested because I don't need to be hospitalized. Now, instead of working out and running hills 5-6x/week, I have to stop and catch my breath walking up the stairs in my house. My lungs burn with relatively mild exertion. I am technically a "mild case that will resolve without treatment", but no one can tell me that I won't have long term health effects. How about, let's understand this disease a little better and come up with solutions to enable reasonable precautions (like enough PPE and testing) before conducting a massive, uncontrolled, human study?

Anonymous wrote:

jsteele wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

jsteele wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Pretty certain that at least some people who aren’t part of the “ruling” class would benefit if some businesses opened up if it was deemed safe by reasonable governors of their respective states.

They will benefit right up to the point that they are infected with coronavirus.

And 99% plus will survive it and go on to see another day.

That would be a mortality rate 10 times that of the regular flu and would result in potentially millions of deaths (depending on the spread of infection).

But again, feel free to risk your and your family's lives. Just don't expect others to do it for you.

Jeff, I really don’t see how you see coming into contact with a virus that has such a low fatality rate as “risking your life”.

It is because of how contagious it is. Because it spreads so widely, even a small percentage is a large number. There are plenty of reports of people younger than me with no pre-existing conditions who were in good health dying from COVID.

But to be clear, it is not my life at risk. My wife and I work at home normally and our kids' schools will not have in-person classes this school year. We will be protected. I am worried about those who will be forced to take risks that most of the loudest voices to open won't take themselves. If you are willing to risk your and your family's health, I fully support your acting as a guinea pig for the rest of us.

Anonymous wrote:

jsteele wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

jsteele wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Pretty certain that at least some people who aren’t part of the “ruling” class would benefit if some businesses opened up if it was deemed safe by reasonable governors of their respective states.

They will benefit right up to the point that they are infected with coronavirus.

And 99% plus will survive it and go on to see another day.

That would be a mortality rate 10 times that of the regular flu and would result in potentially millions of deaths (depending on the spread of infection).

But again, feel free to risk your and your family's lives. Just don't expect others to do it for you.

Jeff, I really don’t see how you see coming into contact with a virus that has such a low fatality rate as “risking your life”.

So you are good with the US losing around 5 million people? Gosh just this week, Trump was criticizing Obama for 15,000 Swine Flu deaths.

jsteele wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

jsteele wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Pretty certain that at least some people who aren’t part of the “ruling” class would benefit if some businesses opened up if it was deemed safe by reasonable governors of their respective states.

They will benefit right up to the point that they are infected with coronavirus.

And 99% plus will survive it and go on to see another day.

That would be a mortality rate 10 times that of the regular flu and would result in potentially millions of deaths (depending on the spread of infection).

But again, feel free to risk your and your family's lives. Just don't expect others to do it for you.

Jeff, I really don’t see how you see coming into contact with a virus that has such a low fatality rate as “risking your life”.

Anonymous wrote:


The risk is minuscule. The fatality rate is less than 2%! And judging by recent reports that are many more asymptomatic cases than previously thought, the fatality rate would be even lower.

This means more infected people who do not know they are passing the virus interacting with people potentially at risk. Are you willing to sacrifice one of your parents unknowingly? If so, then have at it. I personally cherish my parents and want them to be around for another 10-20 years if possible.

Anonymous wrote:

jsteele wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Open up, and just keep social distancing and wearing a mask. Done.

It is unrealistic to shut down everything for 18 months. That vaccine Billy Boy is funding might be worse than the virus itself because it won’t have time to be tested.

But people have to get back to work. The backlash of shutting down the country will lead to deaths due to food supplies and shortages, transportation, people who have health issues will die and people with mental issues will end up killing themselves.

You can’t lock someone in their house with a business that they are using that to survive away from them. This will lead to devastating economic impacts and lead to more deaths. But this is a virus, not a death sentence. Anytime you step out your house, it’s a risk. We can’t live our lives in fear.

If you open up without proper testing, you are guaranteed to have a resurgence of disease. If you are comfortable getting infected, don't let me stop you. Feel free infect yourself and your family. Just don't expect others to take that risk on your behalf.

The risk is minuscule. The fatality rate is less than 2%! And judging by recent reports that are many more asymptomatic cases than previously thought, the fatality rate would be even lower.

Great. Feel free to end social distancing for yourself and your family. Lead the way.

Anonymous wrote:

jsteele wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Open up, and just keep social distancing and wearing a mask. Done.

It is unrealistic to shut down everything for 18 months. That vaccine Billy Boy is funding might be worse than the virus itself because it won’t have time to be tested.

But people have to get back to work. The backlash of shutting down the country will lead to deaths due to food supplies and shortages, transportation, people who have health issues will die and people with mental issues will end up killing themselves.

You can’t lock someone in their house with a business that they are using that to survive away from them. This will lead to devastating economic impacts and lead to more deaths. But this is a virus, not a death sentence. Anytime you step out your house, it’s a risk. We can’t live our lives in fear.

If you open up without proper testing, you are guaranteed to have a resurgence of disease. If you are comfortable getting infected, don't let me stop you. Feel free infect yourself and your family. Just don't expect others to take that risk on your behalf.

The risk is minuscule. The fatality rate is less than 2%! And judging by recent reports that are many more asymptomatic cases than previously thought, the fatality rate would be even lower.

What is 1.5% of 350,000,000?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Let's stay shutdown for the next 18 months.

This. Anyone who can afford to stay home, should stay home. Done.

Btw, I risk my life every time I get in my car.
Yet I do it.
- SP

I doubt you would willingly drive in most countries where they don't have well maintained roads, well maintained cars, licensed drivers, consistent signage and signals, or well obeyed traffic rules.

You will drive here because you know that while you may be "risking your life," the risk is very small. Right now, there is no good information on how high the risk of COVID is because of a lack of widespread testing.

In addition, not everyone is following the "traffic" rules for safe distancing, washing hands, not going out with a fever, etc.

Finally, if someone hits you in an accident, you might die right away or be badly injured. But you don't injure or kill a couple of other people a few days later.

So, sorry, your analogy sucks.

NP. Well I’ve driven in Costa Rica and Jamaica, so...

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

jsteele wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Jeff look at South Korea and Germany

They aren't testing everyone

I disagree with you politically but you are a smart guy

Quit spreading fear/falsehoods

Both of those countries have much higher per capita testing than the US does. Germany tests 1 in 90 people. South Korea tests 1 in 119. The US is only testing 1 in every 273.

Without proper testing, we have to assume that everyone is potentially infected. Only testing can allow us to have more targeted quarantining.

Cmon man so you a need test before you can leave your house?!?!?! Again SK and Germany don't have that. They do contact tracing and test based on that.

Denmark is reopening schools next week.

Yes, THAT Denmark, heaven on earth.

Denmark's population is 1.7% that of the US.

So what?

jsteele wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Open up, and just keep social distancing and wearing a mask. Done.

It is unrealistic to shut down everything for 18 months. That vaccine Billy Boy is funding might be worse than the virus itself because it won’t have time to be tested.

But people have to get back to work. The backlash of shutting down the country will lead to deaths due to food supplies and shortages, transportation, people who have health issues will die and people with mental issues will end up killing themselves.

You can’t lock someone in their house with a business that they are using that to survive away from them. This will lead to devastating economic impacts and lead to more deaths. But this is a virus, not a death sentence. Anytime you step out your house, it’s a risk. We can’t live our lives in fear.

If you open up without proper testing, you are guaranteed to have a resurgence of disease. If you are comfortable getting infected, don't let me stop you. Feel free infect yourself and your family. Just don't expect others to take that risk on your behalf.

The risk is minuscule. The fatality rate is less than 2%! And judging by recent reports that are many more asymptomatic cases than previously thought, the fatality rate would be even lower.