Budgets are going to be tight in the coming years, no doubt. For households and mcps.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:layoffs were brought up because PPs were discussing whether property values would continue to increase in the area. an economic downturn in the area resulting from layoffs may bring down housing prices. one would expect county government to be sensitive to this at this time.

Option 3 sends more kids west than east so that's a great reason to select it!

bananas are a great source of potassium!

Anonymous wrote:And as of March the Case Shiller for DC was also up from the previous month (that data is lagged by 2 months but again, not seeing feds anticipating unemployment impacting the housing market)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WDXRHTNSA

DC =/= moco

Anonymous wrote:layoffs were brought up because PPs were discussing whether property values would continue to increase in the area. an economic downturn in the area resulting from layoffs may bring down housing prices. one would expect county government to be sensitive to this at this time.

Option 3 sends more kids west than east so that's a great reason to select it!

layoffs were brought up because PPs were discussing whether property values would continue to increase in the area. an economic downturn in the area resulting from layoffs may bring down housing prices. one would expect county government to be sensitive to this at this time.

And as of March the Case Shiller for DC was also up from the previous month (that data is lagged by 2 months but again, not seeing feds anticipating unemployment impacting the housing market)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WDXRHTNSA

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Btw while it is clear many feds and contractors (including friends of mine) have been laid off, the unemployment rolls data does not show anything that would form the basis for a massive housing downturn in MoCo.

Unemployment for MD ticked up, and employment rolls do indeed show more layoffs than new jobs for Moco.

These unemployment numbers are very similar to levels we've seen just in the past few years, while property values have skyrocketed.

I am not interested in wading into the discussions of school boundaries, but just a heads up that the big unemployment roll hit from DOGE cuts is coming next month. The way the DOGE layoffs were structured, most people are employed on paper until June 30. So check back for details.

+1

It's going to look very different when household stop getting pay checks. More lay offs are planned in our agency. Anyone talking about very little job loss and house market going up recently has no clue or does not live in this area.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Btw while it is clear many feds and contractors (including friends of mine) have been laid off, the unemployment rolls data does not show anything that would form the basis for a massive housing downturn in MoCo.

They are still on the fork or other programs and not in the data yet.

But if they are anticipating unemployment and worried about their ability to pay a mortgage, it stands to reason they aren't buying houses. Yet as of last month the housing market looks stable, with prices up year over year, suggesting that the number of families in this situation is not yet having a systemic effect on the housing market. https://www.redfin.com/county/1324/MD/Montgomery-County/housing-market

Anyway, what were we talking about?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Btw while it is clear many feds and contractors (including friends of mine) have been laid off, the unemployment rolls data does not show anything that would form the basis for a massive housing downturn in MoCo.

Employment data lags right now. Give it some time.

It's been several months

Property values are going to continue to rise

and as this discussion demonstrates, school boundary changes are far from the only factor that influences the housing market. Option 3 sends more kids west than east so a decline in the overall tax base is hardly a forgone conclusion.

Property values are going down in the last 2-3 months after thousands were laid off. Saying that based in several same spec properties( New build in Bethesda area)

- Realtor in this area.

Plus DOGE apparently isn’t done yet.

Modified Option 4 discussed above by RM parent is the way to go. Send Viers Mill to WJ, send GArrett Park to Woodward.

Have "two" WJs and stable FARMS between the two. Rather than another DCC (sorry, DCC is a downgrade)

Anonymous wrote:Btw while it is clear many feds and contractors (including friends of mine) have been laid off, the unemployment rolls data does not show anything that would form the basis for a massive housing downturn in MoCo.

They are still on the fork or other programs and not in the data yet.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Btw while it is clear many feds and contractors (including friends of mine) have been laid off, the unemployment rolls data does not show anything that would form the basis for a massive housing downturn in MoCo.

Unemployment for MD ticked up, and employment rolls do indeed show more layoffs than new jobs for Moco.

These unemployment numbers are very similar to levels we've seen just in the past few years, while property values have skyrocketed.

I am not interested in wading into the discussions of school boundaries, but just a heads up that the big unemployment roll hit from DOGE cuts is coming next month. The way the DOGE layoffs were structured, most people are employed on paper until June 30. So check back for details.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Btw while it is clear many feds and contractors (including friends of mine) have been laid off, the unemployment rolls data does not show anything that would form the basis for a massive housing downturn in MoCo.

Employment data lags right now. Give it some time.

It's been several months

Property values are going to continue to rise

and as this discussion demonstrates, school boundary changes are far from the only factor that influences the housing market. Option 3 sends more kids west than east so a decline in the overall tax base is hardly a forgone conclusion.

Anonymous wrote:Btw while it is clear many feds and contractors (including friends of mine) have been laid off, the unemployment rolls data does not show anything that would form the basis for a massive housing downturn in MoCo.

Employment data lags right now. Give it some time.