Anonymous wrote:Millions of new jobs for US workers.
Decrease in jobs for Foreign workers
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t07.htm
just outstanding work. Imagine if we can do this for another 7 years.
“In fact, the “boom” in native-born employment is merely a statistical illusion caused by complex rules in how the data are compiled and population figures are calculated.
Before getting into the technical details, let’s pause to ask whether the supposed foreign-born and native-born employment trends pass the sniff test. The Current Population Survey (CPS) shows that the foreign-born population dropped by 2.2 million from January to July, and foreign-born employment by 1 million. That’s far different than a recent estimate by leading researchers that full-year 2025 net immigration could range from +115 thousand to -525 thousand. Furthermore, the CPS reports that the native-born adult population rose by 3 million from January to July, and native-born employment was up 2.5 million in those six months. How is that possible when population growth excluding immigration is typically over half a million annually? Was there a baby boom 16 years ago, now entering the workforce? Or a medical innovation that prevented any deaths this year? A moment’s thought says these swings are implausible.
The second reason is more technical—and damning: the annual CPS population adjustment. The CPS updates the survey each January to match the latest Census population estimates. The total population reported in the CPS sometimes jumps significantly up or down. In January 2025, the adjustment was substantial, adding 3.5 million people overall, which increased the number of adults by 2.9 million, employed people by 2.0 million, and native-born employed people by 1.2 million.
Historical CPS data are not revised. Table A-7 of the July jobs report shows a 2 million increase in native-born employment between July 2024 and July 2025, but 1.2 million of that increase—more than half—is due to the population adjustment in January 2025. It’s not an apples-to-apples comparison.
The third reason is the most important. Census population estimates serve as the “population controls” for the CPS. That means the total population reported each month in 2025 in the CPS equals the monthly population projections that the Census calculated in late 2024. These population controls predetermine not just the total population but also the population by age, sex, and race & ethnicity. That means we also already know that the CPS will report that there are, for instance, 5,308,938 Hispanic/Latino men age 25-34 in October 2025.
In contrast, the native-born and foreign-born populations are not set by Census estimates. Instead, nativity (whether someone was born in the U.S. or elsewhere) depends on survey responses. However, the native-born and foreign-born populations must sum to the predetermined totals for the population and demographic groups, known as “population controls.” If foreign-born responses decrease for any reason, the survey’s sampling and weighting procedures will adjust the native-born population so that the total matches the population controls.”
https://washingtonmonthly.com/2025/09/01/native-born-employment-has-not-soared/