Anonymous
Post 03/18/2020 15:32     Subject: Re:CORONAVIRUS/COVID-19 NEW MEGA THREAD
Anonymous wrote:https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/18/bill-ackman-pleads-to-trump-to-increase-closures-to-save-the-economy-shut-it-down-now.html


He's being a little overly dramatic.

No matter what happens, this is a time limited event. When it is over, people will go on trips again and will stay at hotels.

Many old people will die, which means a transfer of wealth to their heirs. There will be less burden on pension plans and on Social Security as well.

The one business I DO think this event will be the death knell for, is colleges. Many were poised to go out of business already. With a switch to intensive online instruction for thre rest of the year, I think many will not reopen.
Anonymous
Post 03/18/2020 15:23     Subject: CORONAVIRUS/COVID-19 NEW MEGA THREAD
Anonymous wrote:The virus may no longer be in circulation by the time the VACCINE is available.


Yes, but when the virus reappears (maybe) next winter, we'll have vaccine for it and possibly any derivations of COVID19. That's the whole idea.
Anonymous
Post 03/18/2020 15:18     Subject: Re:CORONAVIRUS/COVID-19 NEW MEGA THREAD
According to this article, Italy’s CV19 death rate is actually higher than what is recorded. Many nursing homes are seeing residents die at higher rates but because they are not being hospitalized, they are not included in the official CV19 numbers.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-homes-insigh/uncounted-among-coronavirus-victims-deaths-sweep-through-italys-nursing-homes-idUSKBN2152V0
Anonymous
Post 03/18/2020 15:10     Subject: Re:CORONAVIRUS/COVID-19 NEW MEGA THREAD
Anonymous wrote:and we are using bad data to take bad decisions..

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/


He makes some interesting points, particularly about the questionable decision to close the schools pretty much nationwide.

And, the bottom line is, we don't have enough data on the prevalence of covid19 in the US. We need more tests. He makes that case crystal clear. We ARE making decisions in the absence of data, not using BAD data, as the PP says. We have a little data, but not nearly enough.

And the social cost of lockdowns, school closures is yet to be seen, beyond the economic cost.

I'd say we're doing the best we can, but all this should have been addressed earlier by people in the know and with the power to do something about it.
Anonymous
Post 03/18/2020 15:05     Subject: Re:CORONAVIRUS/COVID-19 NEW MEGA THREAD
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/18/bill-ackman-pleads-to-trump-to-increase-closures-to-save-the-economy-shut-it-down-now.html
Anonymous
Post 03/18/2020 14:54     Subject: CORONAVIRUS/COVID-19 NEW MEGA THREAD
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:What are your thoughts on a shutdown/shelter in place order in this area? Will the states do it (Md/Va/DC) soon?


Yes. Remember it's exponential spread, so one day it doesn't look so bad and then all of sudden it does.

NYC should've done a shelter in place yesterday. They know they're going to have to do it and every hour they wait makes the problem worse. Time is the enemy.

BTW, I'm one of those who was trying to ring the alarm on this board. We were just trying to warn people so they could get prepared. Hope some people did.



DiBlasio wants a shelter in place. Cuomo shut it down. Why, I don't know. Too much disruption. He fears he'll get blamed for the recession that's enveloping NYC daily. The region (NY, NJ, CT, PA) is working in concert. Once one state goes into lockdown, they all go into lockdown. It will be horrible. The pain must start now, or we will be Italy in a week.


You don't announce a shelter-in-place order for a mega city 48 hours in advance. The result would be predictable.... many many many people would leave the city and spread the infection in all directions.

DeBlasio wasn't thinking like a governor of a huge state when he said what he said. He was speaking as a mayor.

I firmly believe a shelter-in-place order will be announced for NYC in the very near future, but it will start will less drastic measures and it will come with non mandatory (at first) suggested travel restrictions of some kind.
Anonymous
Post 03/18/2020 14:42     Subject: CORONAVIRUS/COVID-19 NEW MEGA THREAD
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:The praise for China irritates me. They STARTED this mess. I don’t care what they are doing now. Have you forgotten the mass graves? The shut down of timely information?


who’s praising china? it’s not praising china to realize that they did some effective things.

Not sure what PP is referring to, but check out Upworthy’s Instagram feed.
Anonymous
Post 03/18/2020 14:37     Subject: CORONAVIRUS/COVID-19 NEW MEGA THREAD
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:What are your thoughts on a shutdown/shelter in place order in this area? Will the states do it (Md/Va/DC) soon?


Yes. Remember it's exponential spread, so one day it doesn't look so bad and then all of sudden it does.

NYC should've done a shelter in place yesterday. They know they're going to have to do it and every hour they wait makes the problem worse. Time is the enemy.

BTW, I'm one of those who was trying to ring the alarm on this board. We were just trying to warn people so they could get prepared. Hope some people did.



DiBlasio wants a shelter in place. Cuomo shut it down. Why, I don't know. Too much disruption. He fears he'll get blamed for the recession that's enveloping NYC daily. The region (NY, NJ, CT, PA) is working in concert. Once one state goes into lockdown, they all go into lockdown. It will be horrible. The pain must start now, or we will be Italy in a week.
Anonymous
Post 03/18/2020 14:33     Subject: CORONAVIRUS/COVID-19 NEW MEGA THREAD
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:I was just going back through the original mega Corona thread. Jeez, you guys nailed this. What I want to know is if DCUM knew so early what a serious problem we had on our hands, why didn't the experts? SMH


I am shaking my head also. I'm an elementary school teacher for Pete's sake. I was one of the early posters on that original thread and I could see the writing on the wall right after the Diamond Princess cruise ship cases showed there was spread in Japan from the cruise ship visitors before they got quarantined.

If I can know these things.... why didn't our CDC?

We kept being told "wash your hands" and "the risk is low".
.


I'm absolutely certain the CDC DID know this. They had projections. They saw what was happening in Asia and knew this was coming.

It was the Orange Thing that stopped the CDC from taking serious action. The Orange Thing was so worried his precious stock market would tumble that he refused to allow the CDC to do their job and warn the American people about what was coming.

If you want to blame someone, please, blame that idiot POTUS the GOP props up in office. If your loved ones die, you know whom to blame.
Anonymous
Post 03/18/2020 14:28     Subject: CORONAVIRUS/COVID-19 NEW MEGA THREAD
The virus may no longer be in circulation by the time the VACCINE is available.
Anonymous
Post 03/18/2020 14:27     Subject: CORONAVIRUS/COVID-19 NEW MEGA THREAD
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:I was just going back through the original mega Corona thread. Jeez, you guys nailed this. What I want to know is if DCUM knew so early what a serious problem we had on our hands, why didn't the experts? SMH


I was one of the people posting what would happen when others were trying to minimize the whole thing. They called me names and said I was dramatizing and trying to scare people. They said I was “getting off” on wanting people to die. All I wanted was to make people aware.

It’s going to get a lot worse before it gets better. I’m glad we are taking steps to slow the spread now. If we had done even a little a month ago we would be in a better place now but it’s still a lot better than waiting until the hospitals are completely saturated like everyone else is doing.

I also predicted the economy collapse including car sales. In another month you’ll be able to get some sweet no interest car loans if you’re in need. Just because everything is bad right now doesn’t mean people still don’t need to buy cars. I’d say, even if you were thinking about getting one in a year, just get it in the next few months when all the manufacturers put out those no interest loans.

The government is throwing money at this but it’s just not going to work. People aren’t going to fly, rent hotel rooms, or go to casinos so either they need to let some of these companies fail and get bought out by survivors or they are going to have to bail them out multiple times. The cruise ship industry is going to be on hard times for a long time after this. They’re going to need to shrink because I have a feeling they will have a permanent drop in demand even after this is all over.

It’s important to remember, this will come to an end. Next year (if we are super lucky the end of this year but it would need to be a miracle) we will have a vaccine and everything will go back to normal. I don’t know what they will do with all the hundreds of thousands of spare ventilators they’ll make for this outbreak though. Hopefully someone is trying to figure that out because we don’t have enough for the crisis but we will have too many afterwards.


The vaccine is not going to make things "go back to normal."

This will run its course, as all viruses do. Many people will become immune by getting it, and recovering. The virus will mutate and become weaker, and it will die out. We don't get vaccinated every year for SARS, do we? No, because SARS is essentially gone. This virus will be gone too. Don't rely on a vaccine to "cure" this pandemic. It won't. Testing and isolation will slow it down. Respirators and ICU beds will save lives in the next few weeks and months.

The virus may no longer be in circulation by the time the virus is available. It may help with future outbreaks, but not this one.
Anonymous
Post 03/18/2020 14:24     Subject: CORONAVIRUS/COVID-19 NEW MEGA THREAD
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:France clinical test with Chloroquine resulted in 75% remission after 6 days vs 10% without treatment and conducted by French renowned infectious disease specialist


This is an ancient, WWI type remedy, no? Seems like something my great-grandmother took for infections.


Malaria treatment, no?
Anonymous
Post 03/18/2020 14:23     Subject: CORONAVIRUS/COVID-19 NEW MEGA THREAD
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:The praise for China irritates me. They STARTED this mess. I don’t care what they are doing now. Have you forgotten the mass graves? The shut down of timely information?


OMG for real. I mean I get it, they are doing good things, but when you just share the good things you're playing right into their authoritarian hands. Let's not forget the disappearing journalists, for one.

China is trying to convince people it was the US military that started in China. Full circle finger pointing.


Sounds familiar. We are no better in China in handling this. Much, much worse in fact.

Anonymous
Post 03/18/2020 14:22     Subject: CORONAVIRUS/COVID-19 NEW MEGA THREAD
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:I’m pinning my hopes on rapid vaccine development.


There’s no such thing.


https://www.forbes.com/sites/victoriaforster/2020/03/17/first-person-injected-with-trial-coronavirus-vaccine-in-seattle/#59e144f02583


Sometimes it helps to read all the way to the end of an article,

“ Although the design and production of the prospective vaccine was incredibly fast, evaluation of it will take considerable time. All of the participants will be followed for 12 months after the second vaccination to collect the data researchers initially need to figure out whether it is safe and effective.”


this is for it to be officially proclaimed effective. if the results seem promising on the ground people will line up for it and nobody will stop them.


This vaccine won't be available for 18 month to 2 years at a bare minimum. The usual timeline is 5+ years. The FDA is not going to skirt the safety issues and they will monitor those getting the vaccine now for a full year.


My DD got a fully-approved and tested vax, that turned out to kill a number of babies, so they pulled the vax.

It could be a looooooooong time before this vax comes to market, because it has to be thoroughly tested. You don't want to kill healthy people with a vax that's supposed to save lives.
Anonymous
Post 03/18/2020 14:20     Subject: CORONAVIRUS/COVID-19 NEW MEGA THREAD
Anonymous wrote:France clinical test with Chloroquine resulted in 75% remission after 6 days vs 10% without treatment and conducted by French renowned infectious disease specialist


This is an ancient, WWI type remedy, no? Seems like something my great-grandmother took for infections.