Anonymous wrote:

Is Morning Consult well regarded?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

The only way Biden doesn't win PA is if the GOP is successful in getting mail-in votes tossed. There is no legal justification for it. None.

Monmouth also tweeted that 700 THOUSAND absentee ballots in PA have yet to be returned, and if they don’t arrive by Tuesday, could cost Biden 3-4 points. Absentee ballots could be the death of this election.

I think a lot of people are hanging onto their absentee ballots and choosing to vote in person on Election Day due to all the fearmongering about mail-in ballots. Also, some of those ballots are Trump voters. The current breakdown of absentee ballots by party registration is 52% Dem, 34% GOP and 14% independent.

I think the combination of the WisconsinDem ground game, along with COVID raging, along with FoxConn and other GOP tricks, has the state crushing it. The actions of the GOP state house, particularly Leader Vos, have been egregious.

This gives a little more insight that state or national polling doesn't capture, particularly for TX and PA

Anonymous wrote:

The only way Biden doesn't win PA is if the GOP is successful in getting mail-in votes tossed. There is no legal justification for it. None.

Meanwhile GOP pollsters are all over the news saying the opposite. See the Pennsylvania thread.

It’s like some people are being paid to start a civil war.

Anonymous wrote:

The only way Biden doesn't win PA is if the GOP is successful in getting mail-in votes tossed. There is no legal justification for it. None.

Monmouth also tweeted that 700 THOUSAND absentee ballots in PA have yet to be returned, and if they don’t arrive by Tuesday, could cost Biden 3-4 points. Absentee ballots could be the death of this election.

The only way Biden doesn't win PA is if the GOP is successful in getting mail-in votes tossed. There is no legal justification for it. None.

Cook Political swingometer:

https://cookpolitical.com/swingometer

Some fresh Data Progress polls (including some in under-polled states).

PRES (Biden margin):
National +10
TX +1
NC +2
CO +12
AZ +3
VA +11
AL -20

SENATE (D margin):
TX -3
NC +5
CO +9
AZ +8
VA +15
AL -12

UPDATED 538 poll data for 11/01/20: - Updates since 10/29/20 in burgundy color

Alaska: B-43.4%, T- 51.2%; T+7.8
Iowa: B-45.8%, T- 47.4%; T+1.6 Shifts from Biden to Trump
Missouri: B-44.1%, T- 50.8%; T+6.7
Montana: B-45.3%, T- 50.2%; T+4.9
Ohio: B-47.1%, T- 47.4%; T+0.3
South Carolina: B-43.5%, T- 51.4%; T+7.9
Texas: B-47.3%, T- 48.4%; T+1.1

Arizona: B-48.7%, T- 45.7%; B+3.0
Florida: B-48.7%, T- 46.5%; B+2.2
Georgia: B-48.3%, T- 47.1%; B+1.2
Michigan: B-51.2%, T- 43.0%; B+8.2
Nevada: B-49.4%, T- 44.5%; B+4.9
North Carolina: B-48.7%, T- 46.8%; B+1.9
Pennsylvania: B-50.0%, T- 45.2%; B+4.8
Wisconsin: B-51.9%, T- 44.0%; B+8.4

UPDATED 538 poll data for 11/01/20: - Updates since 10/29/20 in burgundy color

Alaska: B-43.4%, T- 51.2%; T+7.8
Iowa: B-45.8%, T- 47.4%; B+1.6 Shifts from Biden to Trump
Missouri: B-44.1%, T- 50.8%; T+6.7
Montana: B-45.3%, T- 50.2%; T+4.9
Ohio: B-47.1%, T- 47.4%; B+0.3
South Carolina: B-43.5%, T- 51.4%; T+7.9
Texas: B-47.3%, T- 48.4%; T+1.1

Arizona: B-48.7%, T- 45.7%; B+3.0
Florida: B-48.7%, T- 46.5%; B+2.2
Georgia: B-48.3%, T- 47.1%; B+1.2
Michigan: B-51.2%, T- 43.0%; B+8.2
Nevada: B-49.4%, T- 44.5%; B+4.9
North Carolina: B-48.7%, T- 46.8%; B+1.9
Pennsylvania: B-50.0%, T- 45.2%; B+4.8
Wisconsin: B-51.9%, T- 44.0%; B+8.4

Anonymous wrote:are you less or more worreied than you were in 2016?

Less. The things that worried me last time are mostly not an issue this time. Doesn't mean I am not worried at all though.

Anonymous wrote:are you less or more worreied than you were in 2016?

More, less and the same.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:are you less or more worreied than you were in 2016?

More. How is this even a question? Many people were pretty confident that HRC would win.

More because I’ve seen how bad trump is, I can’t imagine 4 more years of this.