Attack
Madison 5
Yorktown 3
Herndon 1
Indy 11
Battlefield 1
Chantilly 5
Herndon 3
Oakton 27

Defense
Robinson 22
Robinson 4
Indy 21
Madison 11
Robinson 24
Indy 22
W&L 28
Indy 43

FO
Langley 7
Langley 2
Battlefield 10
McLean 11

Goalie
Langley 3
Battlefield 30
Robinson 15
Indy 0
Woodson 23
West Po 36

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Compiling what's been said and some research

Goalie
* Indy's #0

LSM
* Indy#22 and #43

FO
* Battlefield #10
* Hayfield #12 (Junior commit to Virginia Wesleyan,

Defense
* Battlfiend: #25
* Independence: #21, #14

Others to consider based on quick research of commits (no clue their numbers):

* Madison has a Middie commit to Lynchburg and a D to Mary Washington
* Battlefield Goalie to D2 Newberry
* Yorktown Middie to D3 St. Mary's, two D3 defenders to Wooster, Attack to PSU
* Cosby LSM to D3 Mary Washington
* Langley FO to Delaware, Attack to Mercer
* Oakton LSM to D3 Lynchburg, D to PSU, D to D3 Lynchburg, D to D3 Brockport

I’m fairly certain that Oakton does not have all of those, if any of those commits

Seems like this guy only watches one district

Anonymous wrote:Compiling what's been said and some research

Goalie
* Indy's #0

LSM
* Indy#22 and #43

FO
* Battlefield #10
* Hayfield #12 (Junior commit to Virginia Wesleyan,

Defense
* Battlfiend: #25
* Independence: #21, #14

Others to consider based on quick research of commits (no clue their numbers):

* Madison has a Middie commit to Lynchburg and a D to Mary Washington
* Battlefield Goalie to D2 Newberry
* Yorktown Middie to D3 St. Mary's, two D3 defenders to Wooster, Attack to PSU
* Cosby LSM to D3 Mary Washington
* Langley FO to Delaware, Attack to Mercer
* Oakton LSM to D3 Lynchburg, D to PSU, D to D3 Lynchburg, D to D3 Brockport

I’m fairly certain that Oakton does not have all of those, if any of those commits

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Look you made something that you thinks tells a story. It was a good exercise, don't get me wrong.

Others have pointed out that there are some major holes in your calculations and variables you didn't account for and cant really explain what "formula" you used to arrive at your conclusions.

It one way of looking at things and many don't agree with your conclusions.

Personally, its a start, but without accounting for many other variables, I don't think the numbers mean much.

I don't know, I find it more interesting that some Robinson parent or player posting a couple of jersey numbers for the 50th time in the last month, and he's working with what he has. When people do these sorts of analyses for professions sports you can screen for only stats when the win probability is below X% or something to get better data and avoid things like the garbage time goals that someone mentioned previously, but VHSL boys lax doesn't keep stats that are anything close to that detailed. Or OP could probably figure out how to weigh recent games more than early season ones (which you also do with sports modeling), but I suspect he has a day job.

All in all it's not perfect, but I like it as a data point to consider and appreciate the effort.

As I said, its something, but maybe not what the OP thinks it is. Based on the replies the OP had to questions, I suspect its not a day job but a class they need to attend.

As you stated the numbers are very high level and don't tell a full story, so the old saying holds "garbage in, garbage out"
Agree its something to consider, but too many other variables missing to make a valid assumption(s) on.

Two thoughts. First, it's not garbage - the numbers line up relatively well with how the teams have actually performed in games, which isn't surprising because he got the numbers based on how teams actually performed in games. So for instance, I don't think you hear much about the Madison defense, but if you look back it turns out that (STAB aside), they've only given up more than 4 goals twice all season, and never more than 8 to any non-STAB opponent. So maybe their defense is pretty good and closer to Robo than people might think despite that not being a big talking point.

Second, I don't think OP ever suggested it picked up ever variable, but obviously neither does the opinion of some team dad who probably never played lacrosse and sees only a fraction of the games that are played. OP is at least showing his work.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Who do we think are the best defensemen in the area

Indy's defense.

Take it out ya butt

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There has been player # references at times about who is a good goalie, LSM, FO, etc.

Is there a "best of 6a" list we can make for positions?

I think it'd be a fun exercise to come up with a suggested list of players, and then people could maybe offer any observations if they've seen two FO nominees compete, or an Attack go against a Pole or Goalie.

I'll take a stab at this and all are Uncommitted Juniors too as far as I'm aware...

Goalie - Indy's Goalie #0
LSM - Indy's LSM #22 and #43
FO - Battlefield's FOGO #10

I believe 22 is a Sr and 43 is going to CNU?

Compiling what's been said and some research

Goalie
* Indy's #0

LSM
* Indy#22 and #43

FO
* Battlefield #10
* Hayfield #12 (Junior commit to Virginia Wesleyan,

Defense
* Battlfiend: #25
* Independence: #21, #14

Others to consider based on quick research of commits (no clue their numbers):

* Madison has a Middie commit to Lynchburg and a D to Mary Washington
* Battlefield Goalie to D2 Newberry
* Yorktown Middie to D3 St. Mary's, two D3 defenders to Wooster, Attack to PSU
* Cosby LSM to D3 Mary Washington
* Langley FO to Delaware, Attack to Mercer
* Oakton LSM to D3 Lynchburg, D to PSU, D to D3 Lynchburg, D to D3 Brockport

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Who do we think are the best defensemen in the area

Indy's defense.

Can you at least give the numbers of the top 3 guys or something? Is there an LSM that is worth mentioning by number?

#21, #22, #43, #14

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Sports gambling exists because statistical models predicting winners in sporting events are largely ineffective. The analysis being posted here is not nuanced or granular enough to warrant the creators time for anything other than entertainment.

Gambling is done so the "house" wins money and the gambler thinks they can win. Their models are presented so you the gambler will lose money.

Do you think I'm doing the statistical analysis for gambling? Or for precise results predictions? The entirety of this forum is for "entertainment". What else could the numbers be for other than "entertainment purposes"?

I did it so there'd hopefully be less lacrosse dad laxturbating about teams their son plays on, because about a dozen of you have your sense's of self tied to VA public HS lacrosse team wins and losses.

Your efforts are appreciated. It is unfortunate that the outputs are nonsense.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Who do we think are the best defensemen in the area

Indy's defense.

Can you at least give the numbers of the top 3 guys or something? Is there an LSM that is worth mentioning by number?

Anonymous wrote:Who do we think are the best defensemen in the area

Battlefield has one good Sophomore defender #25 as well and Sophomore #99 from Indy is a horse and has D1 potential.

Anonymous wrote:Sports gambling exists because statistical models predicting winners in sporting events are largely ineffective. The analysis being posted here is not nuanced or granular enough to warrant the creators time for anything other than entertainment.

Gambling is done so the "house" wins money and the gambler thinks they can win. Their models are presented so you the gambler will lose money.

Do you think I'm doing the statistical analysis for gambling? Or for precise results predictions? The entirety of this forum is for "entertainment". What else could the numbers be for other than "entertainment purposes"?

I did it so there'd hopefully be less lacrosse dad laxturbating about teams their son plays on, because about a dozen of you have your sense's of self tied to VA public HS lacrosse team wins and losses.

Anonymous wrote:Who do we think are the best defensemen in the area

Indy's defense.

Who do we think are the best defensemen in the area

Anonymous wrote:There has been player # references at times about who is a good goalie, LSM, FO, etc.

Is there a "best of 6a" list we can make for positions?

I think it'd be a fun exercise to come up with a suggested list of players, and then people could maybe offer any observations if they've seen two FO nominees compete, or an Attack go against a Pole or Goalie.

I'll take a stab at this and all are Uncommitted Juniors too as far as I'm aware...

Goalie - Indy's Goalie #0
LSM - Indy's LSM #22 and #43
FO - Battlefield's FOGO #10