Anonymous
Post 10/31/2020 22:23     Subject: Polls and Lols: A 2020 Master Thread
2016 strikes again.
Anonymous
Post 10/31/2020 22:05     Subject: Polls and Lols: A 2020 Master Thread
Anonymous wrote:

Yeah, that seemed like kind of an insane gain for Donnie to make. I can see him wining Iowa, but I can just as equally see him losing Iowa and jumping from a tie/Biden ahead to Donnie 7 up? Nuts to that.
Anonymous
Post 10/31/2020 22:03     Subject: Polls and Lols: A 2020 Master Thread
Anonymous wrote:Trump has opened up a 7-point lead in Iowa according to the well-regarded Selzer poll out today. Joni Ernst also leads Theresa Greenfield.


This does not surprise me. I don't like it, but....
Anonymous
Post 10/31/2020 22:02     Subject: Polls and Lols: A 2020 Master Thread
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:


He also told Eric Cantor he was up by 30 in his primary (he lost by 11), projected that Comstock will win in 2018, Romney will in a landslide, etc. It’s a surprise he still has a job.

Here is the thing. There are pollsters that consistently poll to the right or the left. Most of the time, they’re wrong. But that one time they’re right, everyone treats them like they have some special insight, and forget completely about the other 99 times they were completely wrong.

And people are still hiring this guy? Wow.


Sounds like a lot of brokers to me. They still have jobs, too.
Anonymous
Post 10/31/2020 20:41     Subject: Polls and Lols: A 2020 Master Thread
Anonymous
Post 10/31/2020 20:41     Subject: Polls and Lols: A 2020 Master Thread
Anonymous
Post 10/31/2020 20:29     Subject: Polls and Lols: A 2020 Master Thread
Trump has opened up a 7-point lead in Iowa according to the well-regarded Selzer poll out today. Joni Ernst also leads Theresa Greenfield.
Anonymous
Post 10/31/2020 18:41     Subject: Polls and Lols: A 2020 Master Thread
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:


He also told Eric Cantor he was up by 30 in his primary (he lost by 11), projected that Comstock will win in 2018, Romney will in a landslide, etc. It’s a surprise he still has a job.

Here is the thing. There are pollsters that consistently poll to the right or the left. Most of the time, they’re wrong. But that one time they’re right, everyone treats them like they have some special insight, and forget completely about the other 99 times they were completely wrong.

And people are still hiring this guy? Wow.

Trump hired him too. Campaign staffs love him because he convinces candidates to keep smiling instead of sobbing during speeches.


Every campaign needs someone to tell their donors that they're winning, too.
Anonymous
Post 10/31/2020 17:59     Subject: Polls and Lols: A 2020 Master Thread
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:


He also told Eric Cantor he was up by 30 in his primary (he lost by 11), projected that Comstock will win in 2018, Romney will in a landslide, etc. It’s a surprise he still has a job.

Here is the thing. There are pollsters that consistently poll to the right or the left. Most of the time, they’re wrong. But that one time they’re right, everyone treats them like they have some special insight, and forget completely about the other 99 times they were completely wrong.

And people are still hiring this guy? Wow.

Trump hired him too. Campaign staffs love him because he convinces candidates to keep smiling instead of sobbing during speeches.
Anonymous
Post 10/31/2020 17:56     Subject: Polls and Lols: A 2020 Master Thread
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Pollsters did better in 2018 than in 2016 if I'm not mistaken.





The Electoral College doesn’t meet until mid November. If the scenario above happens will we be able to count on the Biden landslide before then?

I’m upset I have to stay stressed out after Tuesday.


Mid December. States usually take a couple of weeks to count and certify the votes and make sure the military votes from abroad are in. Well, normally. This year, we'll see.
Anonymous
Post 10/31/2020 17:48     Subject: Re:Polls and Lols: A 2020 Master Thread
Anonymous
Post 10/31/2020 15:24     Subject: Polls and Lols: A 2020 Master Thread
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:


He also told Eric Cantor he was up by 30 in his primary (he lost by 11), projected that Comstock will win in 2018, Romney will in a landslide, etc. It’s a surprise he still has a job.

Here is the thing. There are pollsters that consistently poll to the right or the left. Most of the time, they’re wrong. But that one time they’re right, everyone treats them like they have some special insight, and forget completely about the other 99 times they were completely wrong.

And people are still hiring this guy? Wow.
Anonymous
Post 10/31/2020 14:44     Subject: Polls and Lols: A 2020 Master Thread
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Pollsters did better in 2018 than in 2016 if I'm not mistaken.





The Electoral College doesn’t meet until mid November. If the scenario above happens will we be able to count on the Biden landslide before then?

I’m upset I have to stay stressed out after Tuesday.


You mean mid-December. If Biden wins it will depend on the size of the margins and the number of close states. There's no magic formula - there are so many factors at play and each lawsuit will be unique. Every state has unique voting laws.

I think there were fewer than 10 faithless electors last time, and since then numerous states have passed laws increasing the consequences for being faithless.
Anonymous
Post 10/31/2020 14:40     Subject: Polls and Lols: A 2020 Master Thread
Anonymous wrote:Pollsters did better in 2018 than in 2016 if I'm not mistaken.





The Electoral College doesn’t meet until mid November. If the scenario above happens will we be able to count on the Biden landslide before then?

I’m upset I have to stay stressed out after Tuesday.
Anonymous
Post 10/31/2020 14:17     Subject: Polls and Lols: A 2020 Master Thread
Pollsters did better in 2018 than in 2016 if I'm not mistaken.