Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What elite defenses has Madison played other than Robinson and Stab?

How many are there?

Same data -

Opponent-adjusted defensive rating

Robinson — 75.79
Madison — 75.72
Independence — 74.61
Oakton — 72.13
Yorktown — 71.42
Battlefield — 69.18
Chantilly — 66.36

Raw goals allowed per game in the same sample

Madison: 3.63
Robinson: 3.80
Independence: 3.80
Battlefield: 4.88
Oakton: 6.70
Yorktown: 7.60
Chantilly: 11.09

How did you come up with these? Why is the offensive score in the teens and the defensive scores in the 60s and 70s.

I used the LN data on the 6a teams ratings, then took the game by game results of the top teams in discussion and came up with an opponent-adjusted offensive and defensive scale, but I didn't take the time to make them consistent. I should have done that so the O and D versions were more comparable, based on goals.

I've done that now.

Adj Off, best to worst

Independence — 16.89
Yorktown — 13.60
Robinson — 13.56
Madison — 11.83
Chantilly — 11.29
Battlefield — 11.14
Oakton — 9.31

Adj Def, best to worst (lower goals allowed is better)

Robinson — 2.74
Madison — 2.80
Independence — 3.91
Oakton — 6.39
Yorktown — 7.10
Battlefield — 7.43
Chantilly — 12.16

What’s an opponent adjusted scale and why have the team orders changed again lol

This is a mess

Do you not understand the difference between offense and defense?

Lololol really man

You wrote:

Quickly threw together an opponent-adjusted offensive rating:

Independence — 17.66
Yorktown — 13.55
Battlefield — 13.12
Robinson — 13.01
Chantilly — 12.37
Madison — 11.50
Oakton — 9.22

Shorthand from this version of the model:

Elite scoring case: Independence
Very strong: Yorktown, Battlefield, Robinson
Solid but less explosive: Chantilly, Madison
More grindy: Oakton

Then you wrote:

Adj Off, best to worst

Independence — 16.89
Yorktown — 13.60
Robinson — 13.56
Madison — 11.83
Chantilly — 11.29
Battlefield — 11.14
Oakton — 9.31

Just making stuff up

Look, you didn't read and you're dumb.

" I didn't take the time to make them consistent. I should have done that so the O and D versions were more comparable, based on goals."

I literally explained this to you. I can't effing spoon feed the luddites because you can't read. You don't understand math and numbers, but also you can't read.

So the offense from one post to the next is inconsistent because you made them based on goals…to make them comparable with the defense? Ok. How does that work when not every team has played the same number of games?

It's an average. It accounts for the number of games played.

If the first rendition wasn’t based on goals, what was the scoring?

It wasn't expressed as a measure of goals, it was an index rating (hence being in the 60s and 70s). I made it consistent so people could look at the two measures (averages, basically, that are opponent adjusted) to make it more apples to apples.

Not the defense, the offense - why is the order different? What data caused teams to reorder if it wasn’t goals per game?

People who refuse to accept this stuff will continue to make the same stupid points like "It doesn't account for playing a road game on an even numbered date that's a Tuesday" or "It doesn't know that the Junior LSM just broke up with his girlfriend" which are, to be polite. moronic comments.


The first (quick) method I came up with was a rough weighted scoring index. The second was, as part of making defense and offense measures the same, on a goals-equivalent vs an average opponent version.

The first method was done quickly, and was a looser weighted index. The second method was more rigorous on an "expected goals" basis, which is the more fully opponent adjusted method.

If you are one of the few people who are legitimately asking questions -

I used an opponent-adjusted goals model. For each game, I took the team’s goals scored and adjusted them based on how strong the opponent was relative to the average opponent in the sample, then averaged those adjusted values across games. That gives an estimate of how many goals the team would score per game against an average opponent, rather than just using raw goals per game, which can be distorted by schedule strength.

For offense, in plain English:

if you scored 10 goals on a defense stronger than average, that performance gets adjusted up
if you scored 10 goals on a defense weaker than average, that performance gets adjusted down

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Look you made something that you thinks tells a story. It was a good exercise, don't get me wrong.

Others have pointed out that there are some major holes in your calculations and variables you didn't account for and cant really explain what "formula" you used to arrive at your conclusions.

It one way of looking at things and many don't agree with your conclusions.

Personally, its a start, but without accounting for many other variables, I don't think the numbers mean much.

I don't know, I find it more interesting that some Robinson parent or player posting a couple of jersey numbers for the 50th time in the last month, and he's working with what he has. When people do these sorts of analyses for professions sports you can screen for only stats when the win probability is below X% or something to get better data and avoid things like the garbage time goals that someone mentioned previously, but VHSL boys lax doesn't keep stats that are anything close to that detailed. Or OP could probably figure out how to weigh recent games more than early season ones (which you also do with sports modeling), but I suspect he has a day job.

All in all it's not perfect, but I like it as a data point to consider and appreciate the effort.

As I said, its something, but maybe not what the OP thinks it is. Based on the replies the OP had to questions, I suspect its not a day job but a class they need to attend.

As you stated the numbers are very high level and don't tell a full story, so the old saying holds "garbage in, garbage out"
Agree its something to consider, but too many other variables missing to make a valid assumption(s) on.

Stone Bridge 14 - Riverside 8.... you heard it here first!

Anonymous wrote:Look you made something that you thinks tells a story. It was a good exercise, don't get me wrong.

Others have pointed out that there are some major holes in your calculations and variables you didn't account for and cant really explain what "formula" you used to arrive at your conclusions.

It one way of looking at things and many don't agree with your conclusions.

Personally, its a start, but without accounting for many other variables, I don't think the numbers mean much.

I don't know, I find it more interesting that some Robinson parent or player posting a couple of jersey numbers for the 50th time in the last month, and he's working with what he has. When people do these sorts of analyses for professions sports you can screen for only stats when the win probability is below X% or something to get better data and avoid things like the garbage time goals that someone mentioned previously, but VHSL boys lax doesn't keep stats that are anything close to that detailed. Or OP could probably figure out how to weigh recent games more than early season ones (which you also do with sports modeling), but I suspect he has a day job.

All in all it's not perfect, but I like it as a data point to consider and appreciate the effort.

Look you made something that you thinks tells a story. It was a good exercise, don't get me wrong.

Others have pointed out that there are some major holes in your calculations and variables you didn't account for and cant really explain what "formula" you used to arrive at your conclusions.

It one way of looking at things and many don't agree with your conclusions.

Personally, its a start, but without accounting for many other variables, I don't think the numbers mean much.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Great discussion on this board. I’ve learned a lot. Based on the discussion, it seems like Robinson is the class of Fairfax County and Yorktown is the class of Arlington County. And then Madison is on the next level below. Question, has Madison lost every game they’ve played against Robinson and Yorktown this season and last season? Based on the discussion, I’m sure Madison hasn’t won a single game against Robinson HS or Yorktown HS. Just checking if there are records available

Yes we hear you coach S, the warhawks are still in the mix, no need to call the refs over.

Depends on which score you went with. Robo got a -3.14 for offense in one. Seemed the most accurate.

Anonymous wrote:Great discussion on this board. I’ve learned a lot. Based on the discussion, it seems like Robinson is the class of Fairfax County and Yorktown is the class of Arlington County. And then Madison is on the next level below. Question, has Madison lost every game they’ve played against Robinson and Yorktown this season and last season? Based on the discussion, I’m sure Madison hasn’t won a single game against Robinson HS or Yorktown HS. Just checking if there are records available

Yes we hear you coach S, the warhawks are still in the mix, no need to call the refs over.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What elite defenses has Madison played other than Robinson and Stab?

How many are there?

Same data -

Opponent-adjusted defensive rating

Robinson — 75.79
Madison — 75.72
Independence — 74.61
Oakton — 72.13
Yorktown — 71.42
Battlefield — 69.18
Chantilly — 66.36

Raw goals allowed per game in the same sample

Madison: 3.63
Robinson: 3.80
Independence: 3.80
Battlefield: 4.88
Oakton: 6.70
Yorktown: 7.60
Chantilly: 11.09

How did you come up with these? Why is the offensive score in the teens and the defensive scores in the 60s and 70s.

I used the LN data on the 6a teams ratings, then took the game by game results of the top teams in discussion and came up with an opponent-adjusted offensive and defensive scale, but I didn't take the time to make them consistent. I should have done that so the O and D versions were more comparable, based on goals.

I've done that now.

Adj Off, best to worst

Independence — 16.89
Yorktown — 13.60
Robinson — 13.56
Madison — 11.83
Chantilly — 11.29
Battlefield — 11.14
Oakton — 9.31

Adj Def, best to worst (lower goals allowed is better)

Robinson — 2.74
Madison — 2.80
Independence — 3.91
Oakton — 6.39
Yorktown — 7.10
Battlefield — 7.43
Chantilly — 12.16

What’s an opponent adjusted scale and why have the team orders changed again lol

This is a mess

Do you not understand the difference between offense and defense?

Lololol really man

You wrote:

Quickly threw together an opponent-adjusted offensive rating:

Independence — 17.66
Yorktown — 13.55
Battlefield — 13.12
Robinson — 13.01
Chantilly — 12.37
Madison — 11.50
Oakton — 9.22

Shorthand from this version of the model:

Elite scoring case: Independence
Very strong: Yorktown, Battlefield, Robinson
Solid but less explosive: Chantilly, Madison
More grindy: Oakton

Then you wrote:

Adj Off, best to worst

Independence — 16.89
Yorktown — 13.60
Robinson — 13.56
Madison — 11.83
Chantilly — 11.29
Battlefield — 11.14
Oakton — 9.31

Just making stuff up

Look, you didn't read and you're dumb.

" I didn't take the time to make them consistent. I should have done that so the O and D versions were more comparable, based on goals."

I literally explained this to you. I can't effing spoon feed the luddites because you can't read. You don't understand math and numbers, but also you can't read.

So the offense from one post to the next is inconsistent because you made them based on goals…to make them comparable with the defense? Ok. How does that work when not every team has played the same number of games?

It's an average. It accounts for the number of games played.

If the first rendition wasn’t based on goals, what was the scoring?

It wasn't expressed as a measure of goals, it was an index rating (hence being in the 60s and 70s). I made it consistent so people could look at the two measures (averages, basically, that are opponent adjusted) to make it more apples to apples.

Not the defense, the offense - why is the order different? What data caused teams to reorder if it wasn’t goals per game?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Great discussion on this board. I’ve learned a lot. Based on the discussion, it seems like Robinson is the class of Fairfax County and Yorktown is the class of Arlington County. And then Madison is on the next level below. Question, has Madison lost every game they’ve played against Robinson and Yorktown this season and last season? Based on the discussion, I’m sure Madison hasn’t won a single game against Robinson HS or Yorktown HS. Just checking if there are records available

All of VA HS lacrosse teams - https://www.laxnumbers.com/ratings.php?y=2026&v=3545
2026 VA Class 6A Rankings - https://www.laxnumbers.com/ratings.php?y=2026&v=3546
2026 VA Class 5A Rankings - https://www.laxnumbers.com/ratings.php?y=2026&v=3547

This is the 6a schedule for today - https://www.laxnumbers.com/scoreboard/3546/2026-04-27

Pretty sure the OP knew where to find the scores already. They were just dealing with a front wedgie and couldn’t pick it

Anonymous wrote:Great discussion on this board. I’ve learned a lot. Based on the discussion, it seems like Robinson is the class of Fairfax County and Yorktown is the class of Arlington County. And then Madison is on the next level below. Question, has Madison lost every game they’ve played against Robinson and Yorktown this season and last season? Based on the discussion, I’m sure Madison hasn’t won a single game against Robinson HS or Yorktown HS. Just checking if there are records available

All of VA HS lacrosse teams - https://www.laxnumbers.com/ratings.php?y=2026&v=3545
2026 VA Class 6A Rankings - https://www.laxnumbers.com/ratings.php?y=2026&v=3546
2026 VA Class 5A Rankings - https://www.laxnumbers.com/ratings.php?y=2026&v=3547

This is the 6a schedule for today - https://www.laxnumbers.com/scoreboard/3546/2026-04-27

Anonymous wrote:Great discussion on this board. I’ve learned a lot. Based on the discussion, it seems like Robinson is the class of Fairfax County and Yorktown is the class of Arlington County. And then Madison is on the next level below. Question, has Madison lost every game they’ve played against Robinson and Yorktown this season and last season? Based on the discussion, I’m sure Madison hasn’t won a single game against Robinson HS or Yorktown HS. Just checking if there are records available

Panties in a bunch… Some people have just calculated numbers to get a gage of how consistent team’s offenses and defenses are up to this point in the season. Everyone knows numbers don’t equal what a team is going to do on any given day vs an opponent. Some teams match up better with certain opponents, and anyone with a brain knows that. No one claimed these numbers are going to decide the state champ

Yes #24

Anonymous wrote:Um Robo's defense is pretty solid. # 22 and #4 and #28...

(#24 not #28)

Great discussion on this board. I’ve learned a lot. Based on the discussion, it seems like Robinson is the class of Fairfax County and Yorktown is the class of Arlington County. And then Madison is on the next level below. Question, has Madison lost every game they’ve played against Robinson and Yorktown this season and last season? Based on the discussion, I’m sure Madison hasn’t won a single game against Robinson HS or Yorktown HS. Just checking if there are records available

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What elite defenses has Madison played other than Robinson and Stab?

How many are there?

Same data -

Opponent-adjusted defensive rating

Robinson — 75.79
Madison — 75.72
Independence — 74.61
Oakton — 72.13
Yorktown — 71.42
Battlefield — 69.18
Chantilly — 66.36

Raw goals allowed per game in the same sample

Madison: 3.63
Robinson: 3.80
Independence: 3.80
Battlefield: 4.88
Oakton: 6.70
Yorktown: 7.60
Chantilly: 11.09

How did you come up with these? Why is the offensive score in the teens and the defensive scores in the 60s and 70s.

I used the LN data on the 6a teams ratings, then took the game by game results of the top teams in discussion and came up with an opponent-adjusted offensive and defensive scale, but I didn't take the time to make them consistent. I should have done that so the O and D versions were more comparable, based on goals.

I've done that now.

Adj Off, best to worst

Independence — 16.89
Yorktown — 13.60
Robinson — 13.56
Madison — 11.83
Chantilly — 11.29
Battlefield — 11.14
Oakton — 9.31

Adj Def, best to worst (lower goals allowed is better)

Robinson — 2.74
Madison — 2.80
Independence — 3.91
Oakton — 6.39
Yorktown — 7.10
Battlefield — 7.43
Chantilly — 12.16

What’s an opponent adjusted scale and why have the team orders changed again lol

This is a mess

Do you not understand the difference between offense and defense?

Lololol really man

You wrote:

Quickly threw together an opponent-adjusted offensive rating:

Independence — 17.66
Yorktown — 13.55
Battlefield — 13.12
Robinson — 13.01
Chantilly — 12.37
Madison — 11.50
Oakton — 9.22

Shorthand from this version of the model:

Elite scoring case: Independence
Very strong: Yorktown, Battlefield, Robinson
Solid but less explosive: Chantilly, Madison
More grindy: Oakton

Then you wrote:

Adj Off, best to worst

Independence — 16.89
Yorktown — 13.60
Robinson — 13.56
Madison — 11.83
Chantilly — 11.29
Battlefield — 11.14
Oakton — 9.31

Just making stuff up

Look, you didn't read and you're dumb.

" I didn't take the time to make them consistent. I should have done that so the O and D versions were more comparable, based on goals."

I literally explained this to you. I can't effing spoon feed the luddites because you can't read. You don't understand math and numbers, but also you can't read.

So the offense from one post to the next is inconsistent because you made them based on goals…to make them comparable with the defense? Ok. How does that work when not every team has played the same number of games?

It's an average. It accounts for the number of games played.

If the first rendition wasn’t based on goals, what was the scoring?

It wasn't expressed as a measure of goals, it was an index rating (hence being in the 60s and 70s). I made it consistent so people could look at the two measures (averages, basically, that are opponent adjusted) to make it more apples to apples.