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Anonymous wrote:It's going to be hard for Trump to steal the election and thereby avoid prison if Iowa is even close..thank God.

Actually if you look at the recent electoral polls trump will still win if he loses iowa

Lol
If he loses Iowa he is not going to lose just Iowa. He can't win the election without White suburban women. He should go get his orange jumpsuit fitted.

If white suburban women didn’t vote for Hillary, what makes you think they’ll vote for Kamala?

Kamala is also going to get less of the black vote than Hillary and Biden despite being a black woman who attended Howard U. She isn’t going to win much of the Latino vote neither. She’s going to lose much of the Muslim and Jewish vote to Trump this year due to the war Biden failed to care about. Hes tapped out and retired to the beach for six months while people are dying.

Democrats are stuck in the past and still think the Obamas can influence peddle millennials and the black vote. They can’t.

The first black President excitement was a one time only thing due to the historic nature and due to turning the page from eight years of the Bush admin.

During the past decade, we’ve had 12 -16 years of Democratic administrations and culture and the gig economy and debt economy for students has expanded significantly. People are upset when they see Illegals can get food stamps and homeownership down paymen grants when Americans struggle to pay for groceries and housing and are inundated with debt.

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Anonymous wrote:Lol if you believe this. Have you been to Iowa? I grew up there. The Democrats are dead to those people. I have family members that were Democrats for years, but are now loyal Trump supporters. No chance those people are backing Kamala Harris.

Did you see the post above yours? Ann Seltzer polls are usually very accurate.

Ok. Everyone is wrong sometimes, and here, direct experience strongly indicates this poll is very wrong. It is also an outlier among polls. For all I know, Ann Seltzer got a huge payday to sacrifice some credibility to put out good numbers for Harris. In any event, I do not believe it is accurate. This is based on the experience of having grown up there and having watched people abandon the Democrats first hand.

A Democrat got 47.5% of the vote for Iowa governor in 2018.

That’s a lot different than a national democrat. And kamala harris is a bottom of the barrel national democrat at that. No chance there has been a huge swing in her favor.

Copium

Like i said, you’re free to think whatever you want. Experience tells me you are wrong and Seltzer is wrong.

Except Seltzer has been spot on for the last 12+ years, even as she’s contrasted other polls. I tend to lean on her reliability as a good indicator of where things are vs. your gut.

That’s your choice. I believe she is wrong. I would not even be surprised to learn she got paid big money to put out a poll like this. I fully expect these types of organizations to throw out some last minute polls purporting to show that Kamala Harris is riding high as a last ditch effort to try to push her across the line. It is all BS by a very partisan set at this point.

NP. Was she wrong when she called Iowa for the obese orange man in 2016 and 2020?

She is now claiming there has been an astronomic 11 point shift leftward in one election cycle. That doesn’t happen with the political polarization in the country. Nothing in the 2022 midterms showed that Democrats were gaining ground in Iowa.

Post-Dobbs, new Democratic candidate, post J6, and voters have had 4 more years to "get to know" Donald Trump.

Plus it might not be an 11 point shift. Her margin for error is 3.4%. So it could be 5-8 point shift which is not actually weird. A lot of places saw a similar swing between Obama in 2012 and Trump in 2016.

Voters outside of DC don’t give a shit about J6, and Trump’s favorability is higher than it has been.

Are you kidding? That is the one thing independents are unable to put aside in considering a vote for Trump. J6 was an appalling attack on democracy.

Poll after poll shows you are wrong.

But poll results often give the answer sought. It depends on how a question is worded.

There have been numerous articles based on lengthy interviews with independents and again and again J6 is a problem. I realize that you may have normalized it, but most of America remains deeply shocked at the fact that MAGA broke into the Capitol, defecated on the floors and were intent on attacking the Speaker and hanging the Vice President.

No one except for the left cares about j6

Anonymous wrote:The Democrats are so dumb. This poll will only make Iowan Republicans more energized to vote and progressives to think Kamala has it in the bag and therefore stay home.

I don’t believe the election is close. I think he’s going to win by a landslide

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Anonymous wrote:Lol if you believe this. Have you been to Iowa? I grew up there. The Democrats are dead to those people. I have family members that were Democrats for years, but are now loyal Trump supporters. No chance those people are backing Kamala Harris.

Did you see the post above yours? Ann Seltzer polls are usually very accurate.

Ok. Everyone is wrong sometimes, and here, direct experience strongly indicates this poll is very wrong. It is also an outlier among polls. For all I know, Ann Seltzer got a huge payday to sacrifice some credibility to put out good numbers for Harris. In any event, I do not believe it is accurate. This is based on the experience of having grown up there and having watched people abandon the Democrats first hand.

A Democrat got 47.5% of the vote for Iowa governor in 2018.

That’s a lot different than a national democrat. And kamala harris is a bottom of the barrel national democrat at that. No chance there has been a huge swing in her favor.

Copium

Like i said, you’re free to think whatever you want. Experience tells me you are wrong and Seltzer is wrong.

Except Seltzer has been spot on for the last 12+ years, even as she’s contrasted other polls. I tend to lean on her reliability as a good indicator of where things are vs. your gut.

That’s your choice. I believe she is wrong. I would not even be surprised to learn she got paid big money to put out a poll like this. I fully expect these types of organizations to throw out some last minute polls purporting to show that Kamala Harris is riding high as a last ditch effort to try to push her across the line. It is all BS by a very partisan set at this point.

NP. Was she wrong when she called Iowa for the obese orange man in 2016 and 2020?

She is now claiming there has been an astronomic 11 point shift leftward in one election cycle. That doesn’t happen with the political polarization in the country. Nothing in the 2022 midterms showed that Democrats were gaining ground in Iowa.

Post-Dobbs, new Democratic candidate, post J6, and voters have had 4 more years to "get to know" Donald Trump.

Plus it might not be an 11 point shift. Her margin for error is 3.4%. So it could be 5-8 point shift which is not actually weird. A lot of places saw a similar swing between Obama in 2012 and Trump in 2016.

Voters outside of DC don’t give a shit about J6, and Trump’s favorability is higher than it has been.

Are you kidding? That is the one thing independents are unable to put aside in considering a vote for Trump. J6 was an appalling attack on democracy.

Poll after poll shows you are wrong.

But poll results often give the answer sought. It depends on how a question is worded.

There have been numerous articles based on lengthy interviews with independents and again and again J6 is a problem. I realize that you may have normalized it, but most of America remains deeply shocked at the fact that MAGA broke into the Capitol, defecated on the floors and were intent on attacking the Speaker and hanging the Vice President.

No one except for the left cares about j6

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Anonymous wrote:Lol if you believe this. Have you been to Iowa? I grew up there. The Democrats are dead to those people. I have family members that were Democrats for years, but are now loyal Trump supporters. No chance those people are backing Kamala Harris.

Did you see the post above yours? Ann Seltzer polls are usually very accurate.

Ok. Everyone is wrong sometimes, and here, direct experience strongly indicates this poll is very wrong. It is also an outlier among polls. For all I know, Ann Seltzer got a huge payday to sacrifice some credibility to put out good numbers for Harris. In any event, I do not believe it is accurate. This is based on the experience of having grown up there and having watched people abandon the Democrats first hand.

A Democrat got 47.5% of the vote for Iowa governor in 2018.

That’s a lot different than a national democrat. And kamala harris is a bottom of the barrel national democrat at that. No chance there has been a huge swing in her favor.

Copium

Like i said, you’re free to think whatever you want. Experience tells me you are wrong and Seltzer is wrong.

Except Seltzer has been spot on for the last 12+ years, even as she’s contrasted other polls. I tend to lean on her reliability as a good indicator of where things are vs. your gut.

That’s your choice. I believe she is wrong. I would not even be surprised to learn she got paid big money to put out a poll like this. I fully expect these types of organizations to throw out some last minute polls purporting to show that Kamala Harris is riding high as a last ditch effort to try to push her across the line. It is all BS by a very partisan set at this point.

NP. Was she wrong when she called Iowa for the obese orange man in 2016 and 2020?

She is now claiming there has been an astronomic 11 point shift leftward in one election cycle. That doesn’t happen with the political polarization in the country. Nothing in the 2022 midterms showed that Democrats were gaining ground in Iowa.

Post-Dobbs, new Democratic candidate, post J6, and voters have had 4 more years to "get to know" Donald Trump.

Plus it might not be an 11 point shift. Her margin for error is 3.4%. So it could be 5-8 point shift which is not actually weird. A lot of places saw a similar swing between Obama in 2012 and Trump in 2016.

Voters outside of DC don’t give a shit about J6, and Trump’s favorability is higher than it has been.

Are you kidding? That is the one thing independents are unable to put aside in considering a vote for Trump. J6 was an appalling attack on democracy.

Poll after poll shows you are wrong.

But poll results often give the answer sought. It depends on how a question is worded.

There have been numerous articles based on lengthy interviews with independents and again and again J6 is a problem. I realize that you may have normalized it, but most of America remains deeply shocked at the fact that MAGA broke into the Capitol, defecated on the floors and were intent on attacking the Speaker and hanging the Vice President.

Anonymous wrote:Lol if you believe this. Have you been to Iowa? I grew up there. The Democrats are dead to those people. I have family members that were Democrats for years, but are now loyal Trump supporters. No chance those people are backing Kamala Harris.

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Anonymous wrote:One of the most accurate pollsters in US history with a strong history of being right when everyone else is wrong.

She was the only one who found Trump was beating Clinton in 2016 and the one who said polls were way overestimating Biden in 2020. She also showed Obama was doing better than polls expected in the 2008 primary.

Can she never make a mistake or something? There’s always a first time for everybody

Of course she could make a mistake, but the silly thing is that Republicans on this thread are suggesting she’s throwing out a crap poll to try and massage the voters (which is what the vast number of right wing polls are doing), or that she’s wiling to torch her reputation to something something is ridiculous copium.

Maybe she is just getting old and should have retired last year.

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Anonymous wrote:Lol if you believe this. Have you been to Iowa? I grew up there. The Democrats are dead to those people. I have family members that were Democrats for years, but are now loyal Trump supporters. No chance those people are backing Kamala Harris.

Did you see the post above yours? Ann Seltzer polls are usually very accurate.

Ok. Everyone is wrong sometimes, and here, direct experience strongly indicates this poll is very wrong. It is also an outlier among polls. For all I know, Ann Seltzer got a huge payday to sacrifice some credibility to put out good numbers for Harris. In any event, I do not believe it is accurate. This is based on the experience of having grown up there and having watched people abandon the Democrats first hand.

A Democrat got 47.5% of the vote for Iowa governor in 2018.

That’s a lot different than a national democrat. And kamala harris is a bottom of the barrel national democrat at that. No chance there has been a huge swing in her favor.

Copium

Like i said, you’re free to think whatever you want. Experience tells me you are wrong and Seltzer is wrong.

Except Seltzer has been spot on for the last 12+ years, even as she’s contrasted other polls. I tend to lean on her reliability as a good indicator of where things are vs. your gut.

That’s your choice. I believe she is wrong. I would not even be surprised to learn she got paid big money to put out a poll like this. I fully expect these types of organizations to throw out some last minute polls purporting to show that Kamala Harris is riding high as a last ditch effort to try to push her across the line. It is all BS by a very partisan set at this point.

NP. Was she wrong when she called Iowa for the obese orange man in 2016 and 2020?

She is now claiming there has been an astronomic 11 point shift leftward in one election cycle. That doesn’t happen with the political polarization in the country. Nothing in the 2022 midterms showed that Democrats were gaining ground in Iowa.

Post-Dobbs, new Democratic candidate, post J6, and voters have had 4 more years to "get to know" Donald Trump.

Plus it might not be an 11 point shift. Her margin for error is 3.4%. So it could be 5-8 point shift which is not actually weird. A lot of places saw a similar swing between Obama in 2012 and Trump in 2016.

Voters outside of DC don’t give a shit about J6, and Trump’s favorability is higher than it has been.

Are you kidding? That is the one thing independents are unable to put aside in considering a vote for Trump. J6 was an appalling attack on democracy.

Poll after poll shows you are wrong.

But poll results often give the answer sought. It depends on how a question is worded.

There have been numerous articles based on lengthy interviews with independents and again and again J6 is a problem. I realize that you may have normalized it, but most of America remains deeply shocked at the fact that MAGA broke into the Capitol, defecated on the floors and were intent on attacking the Speaker and hanging the Vice President.

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:Lol if you believe this. Have you been to Iowa? I grew up there. The Democrats are dead to those people. I have family members that were Democrats for years, but are now loyal Trump supporters. No chance those people are backing Kamala Harris.

Did you see the post above yours? Ann Seltzer polls are usually very accurate.

Ok. Everyone is wrong sometimes, and here, direct experience strongly indicates this poll is very wrong. It is also an outlier among polls. For all I know, Ann Seltzer got a huge payday to sacrifice some credibility to put out good numbers for Harris. In any event, I do not believe it is accurate. This is based on the experience of having grown up there and having watched people abandon the Democrats first hand.

A Democrat got 47.5% of the vote for Iowa governor in 2018.

That’s a lot different than a national democrat. And kamala harris is a bottom of the barrel national democrat at that. No chance there has been a huge swing in her favor.

Copium

Like i said, you’re free to think whatever you want. Experience tells me you are wrong and Seltzer is wrong.

Except Seltzer has been spot on for the last 12+ years, even as she’s contrasted other polls. I tend to lean on her reliability as a good indicator of where things are vs. your gut.

That’s your choice. I believe she is wrong. I would not even be surprised to learn she got paid big money to put out a poll like this. I fully expect these types of organizations to throw out some last minute polls purporting to show that Kamala Harris is riding high as a last ditch effort to try to push her across the line. It is all BS by a very partisan set at this point.

NP. Was she wrong when she called Iowa for the obese orange man in 2016 and 2020?

She is now claiming there has been an astronomic 11 point shift leftward in one election cycle. That doesn’t happen with the political polarization in the country. Nothing in the 2022 midterms showed that Democrats were gaining ground in Iowa.

Post-Dobbs, new Democratic candidate, post J6, and voters have had 4 more years to "get to know" Donald Trump.

Plus it might not be an 11 point shift. Her margin for error is 3.4%. So it could be 5-8 point shift which is not actually weird. A lot of places saw a similar swing between Obama in 2012 and Trump in 2016.

Voters outside of DC don’t give a shit about J6, and Trump’s favorability is higher than it has been.

Are you kidding? That is the one thing independents are unable to put aside in considering a vote for Trump. J6 was an appalling attack on democracy.

Poll after poll shows you are wrong.

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Anonymous wrote:One of the most accurate pollsters in US history with a strong history of being right when everyone else is wrong.

She was the only one who found Trump was beating Clinton in 2016 and the one who said polls were way overestimating Biden in 2020. She also showed Obama was doing better than polls expected in the 2008 primary.

Can she never make a mistake or something? There’s always a first time for everybody

Of course she could make a mistake, but the silly thing is that Republicans on this thread are suggesting she’s throwing out a crap poll to try and massage the voters (which is what the vast number of right wing polls are doing), or that she’s wiling to torch her reputation to something something is ridiculous copium.

Maybe she is just getting old and should have retired last year.

It’s not like she does this herself. And if this is your stance then how are you supporting a nearly 80 year old?

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Anonymous wrote:One of the most accurate pollsters in US history with a strong history of being right when everyone else is wrong.

She was the only one who found Trump was beating Clinton in 2016 and the one who said polls were way overestimating Biden in 2020. She also showed Obama was doing better than polls expected in the 2008 primary.

Can she never make a mistake or something? There’s always a first time for everybody

Of course she could make a mistake, but the silly thing is that Republicans on this thread are suggesting she’s throwing out a crap poll to try and massage the voters (which is what the vast number of right wing polls are doing), or that she’s wiling to torch her reputation to something something is ridiculous copium.

Maybe she is just getting old and should have retired last year.

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Anonymous wrote:Emerson poll has Trump +10 in Iowa. But feel free to cling to whatever poll makes you happier.

Yes but Selzer is THE Iowa pollster. Emerson polls nationally and is parachuting in.

I'm really struggling with this because the gulf is so wide, but I trust Selzer on Iowa over anyone else.

Her result is still within a standard margin of error, making them effectively tied. But if true, that is a huge swing. Iowa should not be in play if Trump is winning.

Also I'm still reviewing details of the poll but the most interesting result: it has women 65+ voting Harris 2-1. That's a huge deal because that's a very reliable voting bloc-- older people vote at high rates and older women vote more reliably than men.

You can trust Selzer and still recognize the margin of error in her own poll could have Trump winning Iowa by 3.4.

Which would be a horrible result for Trump. It means he loses the election and goes to prison.

Yep. This. If Trump narrowly wins Iowa it means the other swing states go to Harris.

Uh no, it doesn’t. What a bizarre argument.

Interpolation is your friend. Look it up.

I’m keeping up just fine, you made an assumption that’s invalid.

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Anonymous wrote:One of the most accurate pollsters in US history with a strong history of being right when everyone else is wrong.

She was the only one who found Trump was beating Clinton in 2016 and the one who said polls were way overestimating Biden in 2020. She also showed Obama was doing better than polls expected in the 2008 primary.

Can she never make a mistake or something? There’s always a first time for everybody

Of course she could make a mistake, but the silly thing is that Republicans on this thread are suggesting she’s throwing out a crap poll to try and massage the voters (which is what the vast number of right wing polls are doing), or that she’s wiling to torch her reputation to something something is ridiculous copium.

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This is where I am, too.

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Anonymous wrote:Emerson poll has Trump +10 in Iowa. But feel free to cling to whatever poll makes you happier.

Yes but Selzer is THE Iowa pollster. Emerson polls nationally and is parachuting in.

I'm really struggling with this because the gulf is so wide, but I trust Selzer on Iowa over anyone else.

Her result is still within a standard margin of error, making them effectively tied. But if true, that is a huge swing. Iowa should not be in play if Trump is winning.

Also I'm still reviewing details of the poll but the most interesting result: it has women 65+ voting Harris 2-1. That's a huge deal because that's a very reliable voting bloc-- older people vote at high rates and older women vote more reliably than men.

You can trust Selzer and still recognize the margin of error in her own poll could have Trump winning Iowa by 3.4.

Which would be a horrible result for Trump. It means he loses the election and goes to prison.

Yep. This. If Trump narrowly wins Iowa it means the other swing states go to Harris.

Uh no, it doesn’t. What a bizarre argument.

Interpolation is your friend. Look it up.