Anonymous wrote:Also here
https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/

These polls are why the republicans pulled out of the border bill. The insiders see Trump winning and want to be on his good side. The big flip happened when Biden went to Israel.

It is interesting that Biden is willing to give the republicans everything on the border and they said no. The thing Biden needs to do is force a ceasefire in Gaza but for some reason he refuses. It’s the thing that is bring down his campaign. You do not win without your base.

Wonder how long he will continue to fight for Israel if it means he loses the election. Any good politician would have already adjusted his/her position. A ceasefire is not a big deal at this point. It’s not like Bibi is a friend of Biden, Trump or the US.

he is the president of the united states, not the Israeli priminister.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Real results, not opinions.

NYT: Here’s why that’s bad for Joe Biden.

They can’t help themselves, spinning a decisive win as probably bad. If people didn’t already believe that the “liberal” media was massaging things for the betterment of the GOP, they should start thinking so now.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:FWIW Biden just won Nevada with 89% of the vote. Democrats appear to be very unified.

The number of voters was 10% less verse the 2020 Nevada Democratic presidential caucuses.

Hard to compare a primary vs a caucuses but caucuses are usually a lot less people.

Now let’s look at the numbers for South Carolina.
2020 total number of voters about 500k, Biden got 262k(48%)
2024 total number of voters 130k, Biden got 126k.

Not the ringing success the percentages would suggest. He is a sitting president with no real opposition….so who knows but it does not look good by number of people who voted.

It wasn’t a competitive primary. Voters did not turn out at all to vote against Biden. Almost half of Republican voters so far have turned out to vote against Trump.

Trump has won only 32 of the 62 R delegates so far. Biden has 91 out of 91 D delegates.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Also here
https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/

These polls are why the republicans pulled out of the border bill. The insiders see Trump winning and want to be on his good side. The big flip happened when Biden went to Israel.

It is interesting that Biden is willing to give the republicans everything on the border and they said no. The thing Biden needs to do is force a ceasefire in Gaza but for some reason he refuses. It’s the thing that is bring down his campaign. You do not win without your base.

Wonder how long he will continue to fight for Israel if it means he loses the election. Any good politician would have already adjusted his/her position. A ceasefire is not a big deal at this point. It’s not like Bibi is a friend of Biden, Trump or the US.

True.

Any Republican that opposes Trump ultimately loses their career.

It's bizarre. And it's not something I truly understand. Trump is a freak show. But this is what tens of millions of Americans want.

And generally, Republicans in the House and Senate aren't all morons. But they are weak and pathetic.

There will not be a border deal before the election. Even if Republicans get everything they want legislatively. It's a winning issue for Trump. Biden and Democrats were absolute idiots for letting things get so out of hand. It's a gift to Trump and Republicans, and they will run with it.

I think people might be overestimating Biden's influence over Netanyahu and the extreme right wing government in Israel. The Hamas attacks on 10/7 were the best thing ever for that government. The government was deeply unpopular, and then the atrocities happened. Boom. Rally around the flag effect. No elections until the war is done, which incentivizes endless warfare. The Israeli right has a chance to really gut Hamas and weaken Palestinians generally. That attack empowered the Ben-Gvir's of Israel. Absolute disaster for everyday Palestinians in Gaza. But huge win for the Israeli right.

Biden has very little influence over Netanyahu. Israel makes its own tanks and weapons. They are not that dependent on the US for security. They have what they need - unlike Ukraine.

It would be a dumb issue to vote over. And the alternative is Muslim-ban Trump.

In what universe do you think 4 years of Trump is going to be awesome for Palestinians?

It's a cult. And you are not a cultist.

Anonymous wrote:The thing Biden needs to do is force a ceasefire in Gaza but for some reason he refuses.

So Biden is the PM of Israel?

Maybe you have failed to notice the amount of effort expended by the Administration to create a ceasefire (they already got one) and a return of the hostages. Maybe you aren't seeing Biden pushing a two-state solution so the Palestinians can have their own lands and self-determination. But those things are happening. And they wouldn't be with Trump or any republican in office.

Anonymous wrote:Also here
https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/

These polls are why the republicans pulled out of the border bill. The insiders see Trump winning and want to be on his good side. The big flip happened when Biden went to Israel.

It is interesting that Biden is willing to give the republicans everything on the border and they said no. The thing Biden needs to do is force a ceasefire in Gaza but for some reason he refuses. It’s the thing that is bring down his campaign. You do not win without your base.

Wonder how long he will continue to fight for Israel if it means he loses the election. Any good politician would have already adjusted his/her position. A ceasefire is not a big deal at this point. It’s not like Bibi is a friend of Biden, Trump or the US.

True.

Any Republican that opposes Trump ultimately loses their career.

It's bizarre. And it's not something I truly understand. Trump is a freak show. But this is what tens of millions of Americans want.

And generally, Republicans in the House and Senate aren't all morons. But they are weak and pathetic.

There will not be a border deal before the election. Even if Republicans get everything they want legislatively. It's a winning issue for Trump. Biden and Democrats were absolute idiots for letting things get so out of hand. It's a gift to Trump and Republicans, and they will run with it.

I think people might be overestimating Biden's influence over Netanyahu and the extreme right wing government in Israel. The Hamas attacks on 10/7 were the best thing ever for that government. The government was deeply unpopular, and then the atrocities happened. Boom. Rally around the flag effect. No elections until the war is done, which incentivizes endless warfare. The Israeli right has a chance to really gut Hamas and weaken Palestinians generally. That attack empowered the Ben-Gvir's of Israel. Absolute disaster for everyday Palestinians in Gaza. But huge win for the Israeli right.

Biden has very little influence over Netanyahu. Israel makes its own tanks and weapons. They are not that dependent on the US for security. They have what they need - unlike Ukraine.

It would be a dumb issue to vote over. And the alternative is Muslim-ban Trump.

In what universe do you think 4 years of Trump is going to be awesome for Palestinians?

Anonymous wrote:The thing Biden needs to do is force a ceasefire in Gaza but for some reason he refuses.

How Biden could win with this one crazy trick!

Nine months out, who the hell knows what political-flavor-of-the-minute the fickle, low-information voter will be basing his or her vote on.

Also here
https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/

These polls are why the republicans pulled out of the border bill. The insiders see Trump winning and want to be on his good side. The big flip happened when Biden went to Israel.

It is interesting that Biden is willing to give the republicans everything on the border and they said no. The thing Biden needs to do is force a ceasefire in Gaza but for some reason he refuses. It’s the thing that is bring down his campaign. You do not win without your base.

Wonder how long he will continue to fight for Israel if it means he loses the election. Any good politician would have already adjusted his/her position. A ceasefire is not a big deal at this point. It’s not like Bibi is a friend of Biden, Trump or the US.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Michigan 16 EC Trump +5
Arizona 11 EC Trump +4
Georgia 16 EC Trump +9

Biden 2020 306 EC votes
Biden without Michigan, Arizona and Georgia 263

Which poll and when?

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/
All from ^^

Anonymous wrote:Michigan 16 EC Trump +5
Arizona 11 EC Trump +4
Georgia 16 EC Trump +9

Biden 2020 306 EC votes
Biden without Michigan, Arizona and Georgia 263

Which poll and when?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Michigan 16 EC Trump +5
Arizona 11 EC Trump +4
Georgia 16 EC Trump +9

Biden 2020 306 EC votes
Biden without Michigan, Arizona and Georgia 263

There are smart people in these states that thankfully won't vote for Trump or Biden

That is a misplaced hope.

Democrats are counting on an unhinged Trump and all his legal peril to give them the election.

That is a bet I would not take.

All the polling, particularly those that include Kennedy, make it clear Trump has a really significant advantage in the states that matter.

It was a terrible mistake for Democrats to go with a rapidly declining geriatric in his 80s.

You're correct but Trump is no less of a rapidly declining geriatric. Anyone who votes for these two invalids needs their own mental health assessment.

A life long nepo baby and heroin addict who is 69 is not the choice either. I can’t listen to that anti vaxer conspiracy nut croak and bleet for four years.

I’m pretty sure abortion will be on the Nevada ballot this year. That’s going to affect turnout and trump votes.

Isn’t Kari Lake running again?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Michigan 16 EC Trump +5
Arizona 11 EC Trump +4
Georgia 16 EC Trump +9

Biden 2020 306 EC votes
Biden without Michigan, Arizona and Georgia 263

There are smart people in these states that thankfully won't vote for Trump or Biden

That is a misplaced hope.

Democrats are counting on an unhinged Trump and all his legal peril to give them the election.

That is a bet I would not take.

All the polling, particularly those that include Kennedy, make it clear Trump has a really significant advantage in the states that matter.

It was a terrible mistake for Democrats to go with a rapidly declining geriatric in his 80s.

Anonymous wrote:FWIW Biden just won Nevada with 89% of the vote. Democrats appear to be very unified.

Nevada will be an important state. There are about 3.2 million people there. Biden got about 98,000 votes in an effectively uncontested primary.

Which works out to about 3 percent of the population. Take out the the kids and non-citizens. Still looking at about 6 percent of eligible voters.

That's not enthusiasm.

Every poll has Trump winning Nevada very easily.

Anonymous wrote:FWIW Biden just won Nevada with 89% of the vote. Democrats appear to be very unified.

The number of voters was 10% less verse the 2020 Nevada Democratic presidential caucuses.

Hard to compare a primary vs a caucuses but caucuses are usually a lot less people.

Now let’s look at the numbers for South Carolina.
2020 total number of voters about 500k, Biden got 262k(48%)
2024 total number of voters 130k, Biden got 126k.

Not the ringing success the percentages would suggest. He is a sitting president with no real opposition….so who knows but it does not look good by number of people who voted.