Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Increasingly, the doomsayers are looking stupid. Commodities are turning. Inflation will moderate by year-end. The Fed will not raise rates to 6%. Get ready to miss the 2H equity rally if you believe the nuts.

LOL. I knew there would be someone here saying this. Two days of a flat market and the crises is over!

FWIW, commodities are turning because the traders are pricing in a recession.

Anonymous wrote:Increasingly, the doomsayers are looking stupid. Commodities are turning. Inflation will moderate by year-end. The Fed will not raise rates to 6%. Get ready to miss the 2H equity rally if you believe the nuts.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Goldman and Morgan Stanley think we haven’t hit bottom (and they’ve called this correctly so far).

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/morgan-stanley-goldman-strategists-see-072309250.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZHJ1ZGdlcmVwb3J0LmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAGuB5nt3c_lLLP0SfSMAJSv2JucPZjDM0iGFXo7AygrUjzkHvSBskWT0sasp8KcxTdFhn4yvylkgzy23HT0kvYgDqyi-s1luqEGulq4g8QBVWQE96opJWXAOfmdUUeK9NoJtMcTGRN9zCHcM5QowADhKuXUaL0vYbwmoMQvyugvB

The key read-across from the 1970s is when investors start to believe that inflation will stay high for longer, equity markets begin to focus on real instead of nominal earnings-per-share rate, which for this year is likely to be negative, SocGen said.

“We have still not seen the true bottom for equities yet,” Kabra said.

His counterpart Michael J. Wilson at Morgan Stanley, one of Wall Street’s most vocal bears and who correctly predicted the latest market selloff, agrees that the S&P 500 needs to drop another 15% to 20% to about 3,000 points for the market to fully reflect the scale of economic contraction.

“The bear market will not be over until recession arrives or the risk of one is extinguished,” the Morgan Stanley team said.

The calls from Wall Street’s top strategists underline how investor sentiment on risk assets has soured in recent weeks as runaway inflation and a hawkish Federal Reserve raised the specter of a prolonged economic contraction. Wilson said that should a full-blown recession become the market’s base case, the S&P 500 could bottom near to 2,900 index points -- more than 21% below its last close.

Really? They've called this correctly so far? Because in April, Goldman predicted the market would fall 21% to bottom out at 3600.

Morgan Stanley’s economist called it correctly.

Called what? The fact there would be a sell off? So did other economists. But just a month ago he predicted a bottom of 3400:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-23/morgan-stanley-s-wilson-says-too-soon-to-turn-bullish-on-stocks

Not predicting the exact place the Dow would settle doesn’t make him wrong. It makes him a LOT more right than the “experts” that are allegedly running the country.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/does-terrible-monetary-policy-ever-become-criminal-negligence

The most recent smattering of these downright demonstrably false claims has included:

“There’s nothing to suggest a recession is in the works” - Janet Yellen, last week

“I wouldn’t do it differently. I was very supportive of the American Rescue Plan.” - Janet Yellen, last week

U.S. inflation risk is “small” and “manageable” - Janet Yellen, March 2021

“I don't anticipate that inflation is going to be a problem” - Janet Yellen, May 2021

"I don't think there's going to be an inflationary problem.” - Janet Yellen, May 2021

"In the 1970s, a series of supply shocks became a longer run problem ... that partly occurred because policy makers weren't trusted by the public to deal effectively with inflation. But I certainly see no evidence that that's the case now." - Janet Yellen, November 2021

The Fed “shouldn’t overreact to ‘temporary’ inflation” - Neel Kashkari, November 2021

“There’s nothing that I’m seeing in these fundamental factors that leads me to think that this is a long-term change in inflation or inflation expectations.” - Neel Kashkari, November 2021

“If we overreact by saying ‘let’s change the path of monetary policy’…that could lead to a worse long-term outcome for the economy.”- Neel Kashkari, November 2021

“What’s the economic theory that a one time boost of fiscal spending, a one time boost of demand - it leads to higher prices, yes - does it lead to higher inflation, which means ongoing year after year after year of continuing price increases. I don’t really understand the mechanism by which Larry Summers thinks this one time fiscal stimulus leads a change in the path of inflation.” - Neel Kashkari, November 2021

“The key here is from my perspective as a Central Banker is not to overreact. We want to pay attention to the data, we want to look at the evidence and we want to make our adjustments prudently, not just overreact because Twitter is hyperventilating.” - Neel Kashkari, November 2021

“I can’t predict the future any better than Bill Dudley can.” - Neel Kashkari, November 2021

“Inflation is higher than I expected, and it's the high inflation has lasted longer than I expected. We know the US economy is recovering from the COVID shutdown and the downturn. But the recovery is uneven, and demand has recovered more quickly than supply has. So given those facts, it's not that surprising that inflation is coming up higher than we expected. But it should start to normalize over the course of this year, if a couple things happen: if workers come back into the job market. We're still missing 3 or 4 million workers. And if supply chains start to sort themselves out, which I hope that they will. But obviously the Federal Reserve has an important role to play and we're going to do our part.” - Neel Kashkari, January 2022

“So that's why the fact that the yield curve has flattened a lot over the past six months, that's giving me some indication that we're probably not that far away from neutral, not as far away as maybe we thought.” - Neel Kashkari, January 2022

“So you know, neutral is a concept and so it's not as if there's an equation exactly where it is. For me, it's somewhere between 2 and 2.5 percent.” - Raphael Bostic, May 2022, when CPI rose 8.6%

First, you linked to Zero Hedge. Seriously?

Second you are proving my point. No one can predict the future perfectly. You were the one who quoted an economist stating we were going to see a further 33% drop to S&P 500. I countered that those people tried to make prior predictions about the bottom and are moving the needle as new information comes out. You countered by showing old quotes from people who made prior predictions that are also proving to be wrong as new information comes out.

This is why you should not try to time the market. Because even the best folks are sometimes wrong and adjust their views in light of new information.

FWIW, that economist also predicted the S&P 500 will hit 5000 by 2024.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Goldman and Morgan Stanley think we haven’t hit bottom (and they’ve called this correctly so far).

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/morgan-stanley-goldman-strategists-see-072309250.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZHJ1ZGdlcmVwb3J0LmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAGuB5nt3c_lLLP0SfSMAJSv2JucPZjDM0iGFXo7AygrUjzkHvSBskWT0sasp8KcxTdFhn4yvylkgzy23HT0kvYgDqyi-s1luqEGulq4g8QBVWQE96opJWXAOfmdUUeK9NoJtMcTGRN9zCHcM5QowADhKuXUaL0vYbwmoMQvyugvB

The key read-across from the 1970s is when investors start to believe that inflation will stay high for longer, equity markets begin to focus on real instead of nominal earnings-per-share rate, which for this year is likely to be negative, SocGen said.

“We have still not seen the true bottom for equities yet,” Kabra said.

His counterpart Michael J. Wilson at Morgan Stanley, one of Wall Street’s most vocal bears and who correctly predicted the latest market selloff, agrees that the S&P 500 needs to drop another 15% to 20% to about 3,000 points for the market to fully reflect the scale of economic contraction.

“The bear market will not be over until recession arrives or the risk of one is extinguished,” the Morgan Stanley team said.

The calls from Wall Street’s top strategists underline how investor sentiment on risk assets has soured in recent weeks as runaway inflation and a hawkish Federal Reserve raised the specter of a prolonged economic contraction. Wilson said that should a full-blown recession become the market’s base case, the S&P 500 could bottom near to 2,900 index points -- more than 21% below its last close.

Really? They've called this correctly so far? Because in April, Goldman predicted the market would fall 21% to bottom out at 3600.

Morgan Stanley’s economist called it correctly.

Called what? The fact there would be a sell off? So did other economists. But just a month ago he predicted a bottom of 3400:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-23/morgan-stanley-s-wilson-says-too-soon-to-turn-bullish-on-stocks

Not predicting the exact place the Dow would settle doesn’t make him wrong. It makes him a LOT more right than the “experts” that are allegedly running the country.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/does-terrible-monetary-policy-ever-become-criminal-negligence

The most recent smattering of these downright demonstrably false claims has included:

“There’s nothing to suggest a recession is in the works” - Janet Yellen, last week

“I wouldn’t do it differently. I was very supportive of the American Rescue Plan.” - Janet Yellen, last week

U.S. inflation risk is “small” and “manageable” - Janet Yellen, March 2021

“I don't anticipate that inflation is going to be a problem” - Janet Yellen, May 2021

"I don't think there's going to be an inflationary problem.” - Janet Yellen, May 2021

"In the 1970s, a series of supply shocks became a longer run problem ... that partly occurred because policy makers weren't trusted by the public to deal effectively with inflation. But I certainly see no evidence that that's the case now." - Janet Yellen, November 2021

The Fed “shouldn’t overreact to ‘temporary’ inflation” - Neel Kashkari, November 2021

“There’s nothing that I’m seeing in these fundamental factors that leads me to think that this is a long-term change in inflation or inflation expectations.” - Neel Kashkari, November 2021

“If we overreact by saying ‘let’s change the path of monetary policy’…that could lead to a worse long-term outcome for the economy.”- Neel Kashkari, November 2021

“What’s the economic theory that a one time boost of fiscal spending, a one time boost of demand - it leads to higher prices, yes - does it lead to higher inflation, which means ongoing year after year after year of continuing price increases. I don’t really understand the mechanism by which Larry Summers thinks this one time fiscal stimulus leads a change in the path of inflation.” - Neel Kashkari, November 2021

“The key here is from my perspective as a Central Banker is not to overreact. We want to pay attention to the data, we want to look at the evidence and we want to make our adjustments prudently, not just overreact because Twitter is hyperventilating.” - Neel Kashkari, November 2021

“I can’t predict the future any better than Bill Dudley can.” - Neel Kashkari, November 2021

“Inflation is higher than I expected, and it's the high inflation has lasted longer than I expected. We know the US economy is recovering from the COVID shutdown and the downturn. But the recovery is uneven, and demand has recovered more quickly than supply has. So given those facts, it's not that surprising that inflation is coming up higher than we expected. But it should start to normalize over the course of this year, if a couple things happen: if workers come back into the job market. We're still missing 3 or 4 million workers. And if supply chains start to sort themselves out, which I hope that they will. But obviously the Federal Reserve has an important role to play and we're going to do our part.” - Neel Kashkari, January 2022

“So that's why the fact that the yield curve has flattened a lot over the past six months, that's giving me some indication that we're probably not that far away from neutral, not as far away as maybe we thought.” - Neel Kashkari, January 2022

“So you know, neutral is a concept and so it's not as if there's an equation exactly where it is. For me, it's somewhere between 2 and 2.5 percent.” - Raphael Bostic, May 2022, when CPI rose 8.6%

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Goldman and Morgan Stanley think we haven’t hit bottom (and they’ve called this correctly so far).

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/morgan-stanley-goldman-strategists-see-072309250.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZHJ1ZGdlcmVwb3J0LmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAGuB5nt3c_lLLP0SfSMAJSv2JucPZjDM0iGFXo7AygrUjzkHvSBskWT0sasp8KcxTdFhn4yvylkgzy23HT0kvYgDqyi-s1luqEGulq4g8QBVWQE96opJWXAOfmdUUeK9NoJtMcTGRN9zCHcM5QowADhKuXUaL0vYbwmoMQvyugvB

The key read-across from the 1970s is when investors start to believe that inflation will stay high for longer, equity markets begin to focus on real instead of nominal earnings-per-share rate, which for this year is likely to be negative, SocGen said.

“We have still not seen the true bottom for equities yet,” Kabra said.

His counterpart Michael J. Wilson at Morgan Stanley, one of Wall Street’s most vocal bears and who correctly predicted the latest market selloff, agrees that the S&P 500 needs to drop another 15% to 20% to about 3,000 points for the market to fully reflect the scale of economic contraction.

“The bear market will not be over until recession arrives or the risk of one is extinguished,” the Morgan Stanley team said.

The calls from Wall Street’s top strategists underline how investor sentiment on risk assets has soured in recent weeks as runaway inflation and a hawkish Federal Reserve raised the specter of a prolonged economic contraction. Wilson said that should a full-blown recession become the market’s base case, the S&P 500 could bottom near to 2,900 index points -- more than 21% below its last close.

Really? They've called this correctly so far? Because in April, Goldman predicted the market would fall 21% to bottom out at 3600.

Morgan Stanley’s economist called it correctly.

Called what? The fact there would be a sell off? So did other economists. But just a month ago he predicted a bottom of 3400:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-23/morgan-stanley-s-wilson-says-too-soon-to-turn-bullish-on-stocks

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Oil prices are a scam. Biden starts jawboning the oil companies and refineries and oil suddenly drops to $105 from $117. Don’t tell me it’s on lower demand because now is peak season. Refiners and trading speculators are where it’s at, especially the latter.

No (except for refinery capacity). You don’t lose a million barrels of refinery capacity a day and have no impact. Oil prices are dropping because it’s a leading indicator. Oil traders are pricing in a recession.

The former NY Fed President says a “soft landing” is impossible.

https://twitter.com/annmarie/status/1539557752099438592?s=21&t=L3ejZEKoruCT40turtbi_g

Anonymous wrote:Oil prices are a scam. Biden starts jawboning the oil companies and refineries and oil suddenly drops to $105 from $117. Don’t tell me it’s on lower demand because now is peak season. Refiners and trading speculators are where it’s at, especially the latter.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Look, the doomsayers believe that the Fed must immediately return inflation to 2%, which will require sufficiently high interest rates to create a recession. But, they’re missing a lot. First, the Fed doesn’t have to return inflation to 2% immediately. More likely, they will balance inflation and economic growth. So, the Fed is more likely to accept 4% inflation for 2023 and 4% unemployment instead of 2% inflation and 10% unemployment. Economics is a SOCIAL science implemented by people, not a physics phenomenon implemented by the vagaries of nature. We can choose our medicine. There are options. Second, the doomsayers don’t allow for any inflation help from China’s supply chain improvements or resolution to Russia’s war. Unlike Russia, China actually makes things and wants their economy to thrive. They don’t want the world to move its manufacturing base from their country. On the war front, the US Treasury is now floating the idea that Russia be allowed to sell oil at discounted rates. Russia already does this for India and China. The idea is to keep Russian oil on the market but deprive them of market rates. Both of these changes would improve inflation, essentially doing part of the Fed’s job for it. In those circumstances, the Fed wouldn’t have to raise rates sky-high, unemployment would stay low, and the stock market would bottom sooner and rise more quickly. Beware of the doomsayers.

And “inflation is transitory.” The Fed had a chance for the “soft landing” and they missed it. History says that when inflation reaches these levels before the aged acts, the result is a recession.

The idea that the supply chain issues and oil prices are going to miraculously resolve themselves and save us is a pipe dream. Europe isn’t going to go back to being dependent on Russia for energy. In any case, Oil isn’t even the problem now — it’s refinery capacity.

Anonymous wrote:Look, the doomsayers believe that the Fed must immediately return inflation to 2%, which will require sufficiently high interest rates to create a recession. But, they’re missing a lot. First, the Fed doesn’t have to return inflation to 2% immediately. More likely, they will balance inflation and economic growth. So, the Fed is more likely to accept 4% inflation for 2023 and 4% unemployment instead of 2% inflation and 10% unemployment. Economics is a SOCIAL science implemented by people, not a physics phenomenon implemented by the vagaries of nature. We can choose our medicine. There are options. Second, the doomsayers don’t allow for any inflation help from China’s supply chain improvements or resolution to Russia’s war. Unlike Russia, China actually makes things and wants their economy to thrive. They don’t want the world to move its manufacturing base from their country. On the war front, the US Treasury is now floating the idea that Russia be allowed to sell oil at discounted rates. Russia already does this for India and China. The idea is to keep Russian oil on the market but deprive them of market rates. Both of these changes would improve inflation, essentially doing part of the Fed’s job for it. In those circumstances, the Fed wouldn’t have to raise rates sky-high, unemployment would stay low, and the stock market would bottom sooner and rise more quickly. Beware of the doomsayers.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Goldman and Morgan Stanley think we haven’t hit bottom (and they’ve called this correctly so far).

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/morgan-stanley-goldman-strategists-see-072309250.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZHJ1ZGdlcmVwb3J0LmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAGuB5nt3c_lLLP0SfSMAJSv2JucPZjDM0iGFXo7AygrUjzkHvSBskWT0sasp8KcxTdFhn4yvylkgzy23HT0kvYgDqyi-s1luqEGulq4g8QBVWQE96opJWXAOfmdUUeK9NoJtMcTGRN9zCHcM5QowADhKuXUaL0vYbwmoMQvyugvB

The key read-across from the 1970s is when investors start to believe that inflation will stay high for longer, equity markets begin to focus on real instead of nominal earnings-per-share rate, which for this year is likely to be negative, SocGen said.

“We have still not seen the true bottom for equities yet,” Kabra said.

His counterpart Michael J. Wilson at Morgan Stanley, one of Wall Street’s most vocal bears and who correctly predicted the latest market selloff, agrees that the S&P 500 needs to drop another 15% to 20% to about 3,000 points for the market to fully reflect the scale of economic contraction.

“The bear market will not be over until recession arrives or the risk of one is extinguished,” the Morgan Stanley team said.

The calls from Wall Street’s top strategists underline how investor sentiment on risk assets has soured in recent weeks as runaway inflation and a hawkish Federal Reserve raised the specter of a prolonged economic contraction. Wilson said that should a full-blown recession become the market’s base case, the S&P 500 could bottom near to 2,900 index points -- more than 21% below its last close.

Really? They've called this correctly so far? Because in April, Goldman predicted the market would fall 21% to bottom out at 3600.

Morgan Stanley’s economist called it correctly.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Goldman and Morgan Stanley think we haven’t hit bottom (and they’ve called this correctly so far).

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/morgan-stanley-goldman-strategists-see-072309250.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZHJ1ZGdlcmVwb3J0LmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAGuB5nt3c_lLLP0SfSMAJSv2JucPZjDM0iGFXo7AygrUjzkHvSBskWT0sasp8KcxTdFhn4yvylkgzy23HT0kvYgDqyi-s1luqEGulq4g8QBVWQE96opJWXAOfmdUUeK9NoJtMcTGRN9zCHcM5QowADhKuXUaL0vYbwmoMQvyugvB

The key read-across from the 1970s is when investors start to believe that inflation will stay high for longer, equity markets begin to focus on real instead of nominal earnings-per-share rate, which for this year is likely to be negative, SocGen said.

“We have still not seen the true bottom for equities yet,” Kabra said.

His counterpart Michael J. Wilson at Morgan Stanley, one of Wall Street’s most vocal bears and who correctly predicted the latest market selloff, agrees that the S&P 500 needs to drop another 15% to 20% to about 3,000 points for the market to fully reflect the scale of economic contraction.

“The bear market will not be over until recession arrives or the risk of one is extinguished,” the Morgan Stanley team said.

The calls from Wall Street’s top strategists underline how investor sentiment on risk assets has soured in recent weeks as runaway inflation and a hawkish Federal Reserve raised the specter of a prolonged economic contraction. Wilson said that should a full-blown recession become the market’s base case, the S&P 500 could bottom near to 2,900 index points -- more than 21% below its last close.

Really? They've called this correctly so far? Because in April, Goldman predicted the market would fall 21% to bottom out at 3600.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Told. You. So.


But go ahead and keep buying the dip like programmed fools.

This market will keep drilling with the insane Fed hikes and a much more hawkish FF rate at YE than was expected. Costs for borrowing skyrocket now. So many companies earnings are going to tank. A giant reset of PE for the market will take place. Buy the dippers are buying at highs and will be stuck for a very, very long time. The era with a. Fed put is over.

the sky is falling...the sky is falling...

If you cannot see the risks for an impending recession, you are just dumb at this point.

Can we please just get this recession started? I've been hearing about it for the last 6 months (or more).

People are acting like a recession is the end of the world. I’ve lived through four previous ones. They last for 12-18 months, and absolutely suck if you’re in an industry that’s particularly affected. Then growth resumes & we’re back to the start of a normal business cycle. I see no evidence that this recession will be worse than others.

Yeah except for the fact the the US has record deficits and can't stimulate its way out this time until inflation stops. It will also blow up the deficit even more. Once people lose faith in the USD because US debt is massive, everything goes to hell as the world ditches the dollar.

And what currency will they go with then?

Not PP but google CBDC