Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The war has certainly gone worse for Putin than he expected, but the military is making some progress. They’ve taken at least 4 cities in southern Ukraine and one in the northeast. They’ve surrounded Mariupol, Kharkiv, and Sumy — all strategically important cities. They’re getting closer to Kyiv.

In a war of attrition, Russia has the clear advantage.

They do in regards to Ukraine. Although the Ukrainians will bleed them dry. They cannot control the country or the people. They can only kill them. There is no end game militarily except total annihilation. They have unified Ukraine just as they have unified the developed world. Even the Russian speaking parts hate them now.

They do not in terms of themselves. The internal pressure is getting worse. The internal paranoia has set in. The economic sanctions are going to decimate their economy. Globally they wil be reduced to nothing more than an indentured servant to China if they continue. The window to escape that fate is rapidly closing. The developed world doesn't need what they have. Their oil is available in Venezuela, Iran, Mexico and Canada. Their bauxite (aluminum) in Australia and Guinea. Nickel in Indonesia. American farmers can switch back to wheat from corn. Their gas from the US and Qatar. Everything they have can be found elsewhere. Once the market switches to those sources it won't look back.

At home, as long as Putin retains the loyalty of the security services and military, he will remain in power. That’s really the only thing that matters at the end of the day.

He doesn't have it. The purges have started.

Well Lenin and Stalin had plenty of those purges. When you find out that your predecessor was shot in the back of the head you figure out very quickly how to become a loyalist.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The war may have not been going to plan but that is not an issue for a Russian leader, they throw at a war everything it takes.

Other upsides for Putin. 1) He rids the country of smart and educated people who most likely to oppose him 2) great opportunity to increase military force as poor Russians who become poorer and more propagandized sign on the dotted line to defend mother Russia.

Putin has also done a very clever thing, he has cast this as a war of the West against Russia. His support at home will only increase as the sanctions hit harder and the propaganda reaches a fever pitch.

Wow, the Russian propagandists are now arguing Putin is a genius for blundering into a military quagmire. Truly astounding.

DP. What I think is even more astounding is that some Russian propagandists (actual Russian propagandists) are admitting what a disaster this is and are putting forward an out - saying that the "demilitarization" goal in Ukraine has been met and that it's time to pack up and come home. There are secret communications among the Russian populace about what is happening ,but even more importantly, some public statements about quitting in Ukraine.

Not a Russian propagandist at all.

Obviously Russians blundered the invasion. Obviously Russian army is having issues. But you have to be very naive to believe that they will not/have not learned and are changing plans, and that Putin is not capitalizing on the current environment. Not only is he doing that, he is also dictating the terms with the West.

There was an article in the Financial Times today by Anatol Lieven, in line with my thinking.

He's made zero headway on dictating his terms. But the west is successfully imposing more and more strictures on him and at this point the west is starting to laugh at him.

He is (granted very slowly) getting what he wants and neutering the West's response. He has been setting the tone in this war since the beginning. He put the nuclear card on the table right at the outset, he has gotten US and EU to publicly declare they will not send troops, or missiles or planes or enforce a No Fly zone. He is bombarding hospitals and schools and sieging cities and not allowing humanitarian corridors. He has seized Nuclear Plants and disconnected them from the grid, he is building the narrative for his false flag chemical attacks that are soon coming. He has absolutely dictated the terms of engagement.

People think that Russia will collapse because of the sanctions, nope they will regroup, pivot to China, India and Middle Eastern countries for trade in exchange for Russia's commodities. The Russian people will suffer but Russia's elites know how to subdue the masses.

EU will have to figure out what to do with tens of millions of refugees as the conflict pushes further and close to the Polish border. This is not about Ukraine anymore. This is Putin's war with the West.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The war has certainly gone worse for Putin than he expected, but the military is making some progress. They’ve taken at least 4 cities in southern Ukraine and one in the northeast. They’ve surrounded Mariupol, Kharkiv, and Sumy — all strategically important cities. They’re getting closer to Kyiv.

In a war of attrition, Russia has the clear advantage.

They do in regards to Ukraine. Although the Ukrainians will bleed them dry. They cannot control the country or the people. They can only kill them. There is no end game militarily except total annihilation. They have unified Ukraine just as they have unified the developed world. Even the Russian speaking parts hate them now.

They do not in terms of themselves. The internal pressure is getting worse. The internal paranoia has set in. The economic sanctions are going to decimate their economy. Globally they wil be reduced to nothing more than an indentured servant to China if they continue. The window to escape that fate is rapidly closing. The developed world doesn't need what they have. Their oil is available in Venezuela, Iran, Mexico and Canada. Their bauxite (aluminum) in Australia and Guinea. Nickel in Indonesia. American farmers can switch back to wheat from corn. Their gas from the US and Qatar. Everything they have can be found elsewhere. Once the market switches to those sources it won't look back.

At home, as long as Putin retains the loyalty of the security services and military, he will remain in power. That’s really the only thing that matters at the end of the day.

He doesn't have it. The purges have started.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:He's trying to get Lukashenko to participate.

15:27 again. And Lukashenko will, they are just waiting for the right timing.

Also, today Russians kidnaped the mayor of Melitopol. Putin has lots and lots of tricks up his sleeve folks while the US is thinking about shrimp and vodka bans.

EU and US are in a terrible position as they are at this point dealing with a rogue player.

Hmm, did we not know he was rouge when jailed Khadarkovsky? Or when he killed Magnitsky? Or when he shot Nemtsov? Or when he sent killers with polonium tea to Litvenenko?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The war has certainly gone worse for Putin than he expected, but the military is making some progress. They’ve taken at least 4 cities in southern Ukraine and one in the northeast. They’ve surrounded Mariupol, Kharkiv, and Sumy — all strategically important cities. They’re getting closer to Kyiv.

In a war of attrition, Russia has the clear advantage.

They do in regards to Ukraine. Although the Ukrainians will bleed them dry. They cannot control the country or the people. They can only kill them. There is no end game militarily except total annihilation. They have unified Ukraine just as they have unified the developed world. Even the Russian speaking parts hate them now.

They do not in terms of themselves. The internal pressure is getting worse. The internal paranoia has set in. The economic sanctions are going to decimate their economy. Globally they wil be reduced to nothing more than an indentured servant to China if they continue. The window to escape that fate is rapidly closing. The developed world doesn't need what they have. Their oil is available in Venezuela, Iran, Mexico and Canada. Their bauxite (aluminum) in Australia and Guinea. Nickel in Indonesia. American farmers can switch back to wheat from corn. Their gas from the US and Qatar. Everything they have can be found elsewhere. Once the market switches to those sources it won't look back.

At home, as long as Putin retains the loyalty of the security services and military, he will remain in power. That’s really the only thing that matters at the end of the day.

He doesn't have it. The purges have started.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The war has certainly gone worse for Putin than he expected, but the military is making some progress. They’ve taken at least 4 cities in southern Ukraine and one in the northeast. They’ve surrounded Mariupol, Kharkiv, and Sumy — all strategically important cities. They’re getting closer to Kyiv.

In a war of attrition, Russia has the clear advantage.

That's not clear at all. It seems to be the other way around, currently.

It’s sadly absolutely clear. I don’t mean that they will end up with a political victory — that’s highly, highly unlikely. But Russia only has 30% of its military capability devoted to Ukraine right now. They are #2 in firepower globally; Ukraine is something like #35. It’s the sad reality.

None of those numbers are correct. Ukraine is receiving a steady supply of modern military weapons. Russia has already used most of their "modern" tanks and trucks, they've lost their paratroopers, a majority of their army is in or near Ukraine, etc.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The war has certainly gone worse for Putin than he expected, but the military is making some progress. They’ve taken at least 4 cities in southern Ukraine and one in the northeast. They’ve surrounded Mariupol, Kharkiv, and Sumy — all strategically important cities. They’re getting closer to Kyiv.

In a war of attrition, Russia has the clear advantage.

They do in regards to Ukraine. Although the Ukrainians will bleed them dry. They cannot control the country or the people. They can only kill them. There is no end game militarily except total annihilation. They have unified Ukraine just as they have unified the developed world. Even the Russian speaking parts hate them now.

They do not in terms of themselves. The internal pressure is getting worse. The internal paranoia has set in. The economic sanctions are going to decimate their economy. Globally they wil be reduced to nothing more than an indentured servant to China if they continue. The window to escape that fate is rapidly closing. The developed world doesn't need what they have. Their oil is available in Venezuela, Iran, Mexico and Canada. Their bauxite (aluminum) in Australia and Guinea. Nickel in Indonesia. American farmers can switch back to wheat from corn. Their gas from the US and Qatar. Everything they have can be found elsewhere. Once the market switches to those sources it won't look back.

At home, as long as Putin retains the loyalty of the security services and military, he will remain in power. That’s really the only thing that matters at the end of the day.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The war has certainly gone worse for Putin than he expected, but the military is making some progress. They’ve taken at least 4 cities in southern Ukraine and one in the northeast. They’ve surrounded Mariupol, Kharkiv, and Sumy — all strategically important cities. They’re getting closer to Kyiv.

In a war of attrition, Russia has the clear advantage.

They do in regards to Ukraine. Although the Ukrainians will bleed them dry. They cannot control the country or the people. They can only kill them. There is no end game militarily except total annihilation. They have unified Ukraine just as they have unified the developed world. Even the Russian speaking parts hate them now.

They do not in terms of themselves. The internal pressure is getting worse. The internal paranoia has set in. The economic sanctions are going to decimate their economy. Globally they wil be reduced to nothing more than an indentured servant to China if they continue. The window to escape that fate is rapidly closing. The developed world doesn't need what they have. Their oil is available in Venezuela, Iran, Mexico and Canada. Their bauxite (aluminum) in Australia and Guinea. Nickel in Indonesia. American farmers can switch back to wheat from corn. Their gas from the US and Qatar. Everything they have can be found elsewhere. Once the market switches to those sources it won't look back.

Anonymous wrote:The war has certainly gone worse for Putin than he expected, but the military is making some progress. They’ve taken at least 4 cities in southern Ukraine and one in the northeast. They’ve surrounded Mariupol, Kharkiv, and Sumy — all strategically important cities. They’re getting closer to Kyiv.

In a war of attrition, Russia has the clear advantage.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The war has certainly gone worse for Putin than he expected, but the military is making some progress. They’ve taken at least 4 cities in southern Ukraine and one in the northeast. They’ve surrounded Mariupol, Kharkiv, and Sumy — all strategically important cities. They’re getting closer to Kyiv.

In a war of attrition, Russia has the clear advantage.

That's not clear at all. It seems to be the other way around, currently.

It’s sadly absolutely clear. I don’t mean that they will end up with a political victory — that’s highly, highly unlikely. But Russia only has 30% of its military capability devoted to Ukraine right now. They are #2 in firepower globally; Ukraine is something like #35. It’s the sad reality.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The war has certainly gone worse for Putin than he expected, but the military is making some progress. They’ve taken at least 4 cities in southern Ukraine and one in the northeast. They’ve surrounded Mariupol, Kharkiv, and Sumy — all strategically important cities. They’re getting closer to Kyiv.

In a war of attrition, Russia has the clear advantage.

That's not clear at all. It seems to be the other way around, currently.

Anonymous wrote:The war has certainly gone worse for Putin than he expected, but the military is making some progress. They’ve taken at least 4 cities in southern Ukraine and one in the northeast. They’ve surrounded Mariupol, Kharkiv, and Sumy — all strategically important cities. They’re getting closer to Kyiv.

In a war of attrition, Russia has the clear advantage.

Anonymous wrote:The war has certainly gone worse for Putin than he expected, but the military is making some progress. They’ve taken at least 4 cities in southern Ukraine and one in the northeast. They’ve surrounded Mariupol, Kharkiv, and Sumy — all strategically important cities. They’re getting closer to Kyiv.

In a war of attrition, Russia has the clear advantage.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:He's trying to get Lukashenko to participate.

15:27 again. And Lukashenko will, they are just waiting for the right timing.

Also, today Russians kidnaped the mayor of Melitopol. Putin has lots and lots of tricks up his sleeve folks while the US is thinking about shrimp and vodka bans.

EU and US are in a terrible position as they are at this point dealing with a rogue player.