If this is accurate, it will be a short evening on Tuesday.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:90-10 at the moment on 538.
Why do I still have this sinking feeling?

Because we know they've cheated before and are bolder and more desperate now.

+1

Gerrymandering has seen the theft of State Houses and the US House for decades. Those in power have chosen the voters. Very often, more Dems vote but the GOP wins majorities.

If you can strategically stop ballot counting you're just choosing the voters. No reason not to do it for the White House too if you can get away with it.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Don’t we need to worry about Tuesday voters?

If past trends hold, they will heavily skew Republican. Hopefully, enough blue votes have been banked that it won't make any difference.

Yes, but this is the question. It's going to be a LONG day.

It's very possible that it will be a long week. Or more.

Tuesday voters will be heavily R, but not wholly. If 200 people vote early and break 65-35 for Biden, and 100 people vote on Election day and break 75-25 for Trump, you have a result of 155-145 for Biden.

I may be unpopular for saying this, but I believe these:

1) Any state within 0.5% or 50k votes is going to get the Florida 2000 treatment. It might get ugly fast, depending on the margin and the nature of that margin.

1a) Biden winning a state by 35k votes is faaar more likely to get accepted than Biden winning by 2k votes courtesy of a discovered on Friday cache of absentee ballots from a heavily Democratic part of the state. Likewise, Trump winning by 40k is going to be more likely accepted than Trump winning by 5k amidst tens of thousands of absentee ballots somehow showing up a day after the deadline, but postmarked on the 2nd.

2) If Biden wins 270 electoral votes by a clear margin, Republicans are going to have to think long and hard. I remain optimistic that they will have a Goldwater 1974 moment, and tell Trump that it's over, and that he needs to go quietly. Because if he doesn't, we will start looking like something on the scale that includes Europe in the 1970s, Northern Ireland in 1972, or Jamaica in 1980.

2a) The protests will be in the tens of millions. It will dwarf the George Floyd protests. The S&P will remember fondly the days when it was above 2,500 and we will trigger the second breaker on the NYSE.

2b) That alone might convince the billionaires, who might put up with Trump's antics in other circumstances, to put a stop to Trump. I suspect they told him a deal needed to be reached in January 2019 to end the shutdown once enough East Coast air traffic controllers got tired of working for free and called in sick. (Apparently only 10-12 did this.)

3) No one outside the hardcore Trumpies will truly believe that Trump has won on Election Day and that counting of properly case absentee ballots hanging around the election office needs to stop. 2/3 of voters are expecting this to be like the 1960 or 2000 elections.

3a) I really wonder if Biden and his team are gaming expectations here.

3b) Biden is 100x the retail politician Hillary is, but only 1/10 the retail politician Bill was in the 1990s.

4) I am getting a mix of 1980 and 2008 vibes here. The incumbent has clearly failed. The challenger is less threatening than in 1980 or 2008.

5) I donated twice to Biden (and will a third) and will also be textbanking next week. I'm in a politically mixed marriage (unlike most, it's my DW that's a Republican.) The attitude I have towards this work is like in Mortal Combat where the voice tells the player to "FINISH HIM!"

PENNSYLVANIA
- 2.3 million have voted early.

by party affiliation:
Democrats - 1,536,035
Republicans - 520,199
No Party - 227,094

Anonymous wrote:90-10 at the moment on 538.
Why do I still have this sinking feeling?

Combination of 2016 PTSD and knowing that Trump will do anything to steal the election, including stalling absentee ballots and contesting their counting in key states. Valid fears.

Anonymous wrote:90-10 at the moment on 538.
Why do I still have this sinking feeling?

Because we know they've cheated before and are bolder and more desperate now.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Don’t we need to worry about Tuesday voters?

As PP says, yes, the Republicans will make up a lot of ground then but: Minnesota Republicans are basically suing for voters to not have to wear masks. My dad, who is (still) a big Republican and has a pre-existing condition, and the thousands of others like him might actually have to take a pass on voting.

Why didn’t your dad vote absentee?

90-10 at the moment on 538.
Why do I still have this sinking feeling?

Anonymous wrote:Don’t we need to worry about Tuesday voters?

As PP says, yes, the Republicans will make up a lot of ground then but: Minnesota Republicans are basically suing for voters to not have to wear masks. My dad, who is (still) a big Republican and has a pre-existing condition, and the thousands of others like him might actually have to take a pass on voting.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Don’t we need to worry about Tuesday voters?

If past trends hold, they will heavily skew Republican. Hopefully, enough blue votes have been banked that it won't make any difference.

Yes, but this is the question. It's going to be a LONG day.

Anonymous wrote:Don’t we need to worry about Tuesday voters?

If past trends hold, they will heavily skew Republican. Hopefully, enough blue votes have been banked that it won't make any difference.

Anonymous wrote:This bodes well

IOWA
- 885k Iowans have voted, about 60% of the total 2016 vote.

by party affiliation:
Democrats - 417,886
Republicans - 289,511
No Party - 173,934

Hope this means a win for Greenfield!!

This bodes well

IOWA
- 885k Iowans have voted, about 60% of the total 2016 vote.

by party affiliation:
Democrats - 417,886
Republicans - 289,511
No Party - 173,934