Anonymous wrote:I subbed at a Rocketship campus and boy oh boy it’s more of a detention center trying to make it a positive environment.

Glad parents are realizing there are better options out there.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I compared BASIS DC numbers from 2019-20 to 2025-26.

Some observations of changes over the last 6 years:

-BASIS let in fewer students for 5th grade but not by much
-the steepest attrition remains after 5th grade (parents realize that BASIS isn’t a good fit) and 8th grade (some kids go to Walls, private, etc.)
-more kids stay for 9th grade, which is resulting in larger class sizes for high school
-overall, there are 59 more students
-there are 48 more high school students

So, the bottom line is that attrition is decreasing at BASIS especially after 5th grade, probably because self-selection for BASIS is getting better (fewer students enroll who don’t have the right fit for the rigor). Yet, because BASIS has not proportionally reduced 5th grade admissions, this has resulted in more students at the school.

A lot of these conclusions are objectively false.

BASIS had 138 5th graders this year. That's the highest number since SY19-20. It's been between 133-135 in every other interim year, with the exception of SY21-22, which had 129. So, no, they're not letting in fewer students.

Attrition between 6th-7th grade is almost always higher than attrition between 5th-6th grade. This was true for every 5th grade cohort from SY19-20 on except the SY21-22 5th grade cohort.

Attrition between 8th-9th grade is actually getting worse over time.
SY19-20 8th grade: -8 in 9th
SY20-21: -18
SY21-22: -14
SY22-23: -27
SY23-24: -22
SY24-25: -28

You are not disputing PP; you are making different arguments. Your statement that PP’s “conclusions are objectively false” is full of sh*t.

1. PP was comparing current numbers to 6 years ago, and the numbers are accurate.

2. PP’s statement that BASIS let in fewer students for 5th grade but not by much is objectively true. in SY 19-20, BASIS let in 141 and in SY 25-26, they let in 138.

3. PP’s statement that most attrition is “after 5th grade” or “8th grade” is correct and you don’t contradict it. 5th grade at BASIS is pretty easy compared to what comes later, so some kids stay for a year but then drop out after a second year. In other words, most attrition is after 5th grade or 8th grade rather than, say, during high school.

3. PP’s statement that more kids stay for 9th grade is accurate. For SY 19-20, 25 left after 8th grade and in SY 25-26 18 left after 8th grade.

4. You don’t dispute PP's conclusion that, compared to 6 years ago, there are more students overall now AND more in high school. The school is indisputably larger than 6 years ago and so is the high school. That obviously means that the school is retaining more students.

This is the one thing that PP was wrong about. Comps start in 6th grade, so you have kids who can actually can't move to the next grade if they fail one of their comps (unless they retake it), so you have some built-in attrition. 5th doesn't have comps so there is always less attrition than after 6th.

Everything else seems on point, particularly that the school enrollment as a whole is bigger so the school must be retaining more students.

Conclusions based on "vibes" rather than from actual basic math from publicly available spreadsheets. OK.

Hopefully your kids are getting a better math education than all of you did.

What? Attrition after 6th grade has been higher than attrition after 5th grade for every BASIS class except for one dyring the first COVID year. this is a fact and has been stated by a PP who responded to you (and I know it to be true, since we are at BASIS and the school presents these numbers to our community). Not basing anything on vibes. you need to check your numbers.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I compared BASIS DC numbers from 2019-20 to 2025-26.

Some observations of changes over the last 6 years:

-BASIS let in fewer students for 5th grade but not by much
-the steepest attrition remains after 5th grade (parents realize that BASIS isn’t a good fit) and 8th grade (some kids go to Walls, private, etc.)
-more kids stay for 9th grade, which is resulting in larger class sizes for high school
-overall, there are 59 more students
-there are 48 more high school students

So, the bottom line is that attrition is decreasing at BASIS especially after 5th grade, probably because self-selection for BASIS is getting better (fewer students enroll who don’t have the right fit for the rigor). Yet, because BASIS has not proportionally reduced 5th grade admissions, this has resulted in more students at the school.

A lot of these conclusions are objectively false.

BASIS had 138 5th graders this year. That's the highest number since SY19-20. It's been between 133-135 in every other interim year, with the exception of SY21-22, which had 129. So, no, they're not letting in fewer students.

Attrition between 6th-7th grade is almost always higher than attrition between 5th-6th grade. This was true for every 5th grade cohort from SY19-20 on except the SY21-22 5th grade cohort.

Attrition between 8th-9th grade is actually getting worse over time.
SY19-20 8th grade: -8 in 9th
SY20-21: -18
SY21-22: -14
SY22-23: -27
SY23-24: -22
SY24-25: -28

You are not disputing PP; you are making different arguments. Your statement that PP’s “conclusions are objectively false” is full of sh*t.

1. PP was comparing current numbers to 6 years ago, and the numbers are accurate.

2. PP’s statement that BASIS let in fewer students for 5th grade but not by much is objectively true. in SY 19-20, BASIS let in 141 and in SY 25-26, they let in 138.

3. PP’s statement that most attrition is “after 5th grade” or “8th grade” is correct and you don’t contradict it. 5th grade at BASIS is pretty easy compared to what comes later, so some kids stay for a year but then drop out after a second year. In other words, most attrition is after 5th grade or 8th grade rather than, say, during high school.

3. PP’s statement that more kids stay for 9th grade is accurate. For SY 19-20, 25 left after 8th grade and in SY 25-26 18 left after 8th grade.

4. You don’t dispute PP's conclusion that, compared to 6 years ago, there are more students overall now AND more in high school. The school is indisputably larger than 6 years ago and so is the high school. That obviously means that the school is retaining more students.

This is the one thing that PP was wrong about. Comps start in 6th grade, so you have kids who can actually can't move to the next grade if they fail one of their comps (unless they retake it), so you have some built-in attrition. 5th doesn't have comps so there is always less attrition than after 6th.

Everything else seems on point, particularly that the school enrollment as a whole is bigger so the school must be retaining more students.

Conclusions based on "vibes" rather than from actual basic math from publicly available spreadsheets. OK.

Hopefully your kids are getting a better math education than all of you did.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I compared BASIS DC numbers from 2019-20 to 2025-26.

Some observations of changes over the last 6 years:

-BASIS let in fewer students for 5th grade but not by much
-the steepest attrition remains after 5th grade (parents realize that BASIS isn’t a good fit) and 8th grade (some kids go to Walls, private, etc.)
-more kids stay for 9th grade, which is resulting in larger class sizes for high school
-overall, there are 59 more students
-there are 48 more high school students

So, the bottom line is that attrition is decreasing at BASIS especially after 5th grade, probably because self-selection for BASIS is getting better (fewer students enroll who don’t have the right fit for the rigor). Yet, because BASIS has not proportionally reduced 5th grade admissions, this has resulted in more students at the school.

A lot of these conclusions are objectively false.

BASIS had 138 5th graders this year. That's the highest number since SY19-20. It's been between 133-135 in every other interim year, with the exception of SY21-22, which had 129. So, no, they're not letting in fewer students.

Attrition between 6th-7th grade is almost always higher than attrition between 5th-6th grade. This was true for every 5th grade cohort from SY19-20 on except the SY21-22 5th grade cohort.

Attrition between 8th-9th grade is actually getting worse over time.
SY19-20 8th grade: -8 in 9th
SY20-21: -18
SY21-22: -14
SY22-23: -27
SY23-24: -22
SY24-25: -28

You are not disputing PP; you are making different arguments. Your statement that PP’s “conclusions are objectively false” is full of sh*t.

1. PP was comparing current numbers to 6 years ago, and the numbers are accurate.

2. PP’s statement that BASIS let in fewer students for 5th grade but not by much is objectively true. in SY 19-20, BASIS let in 141 and in SY 25-26, they let in 138.

3. PP’s statement that most attrition is “after 5th grade” or “8th grade” is correct and you don’t contradict it. 5th grade at BASIS is pretty easy compared to what comes later, so some kids stay for a year but then drop out after a second year. In other words, most attrition is after 5th grade or 8th grade rather than, say, during high school.

3. PP’s statement that more kids stay for 9th grade is accurate. For SY 19-20, 25 left after 8th grade and in SY 25-26 18 left after 8th grade.

4. You don’t dispute PP's conclusion that, compared to 6 years ago, there are more students overall now AND more in high school. The school is indisputably larger than 6 years ago and so is the high school. That obviously means that the school is retaining more students.

This is the one thing that PP was wrong about. Comps start in 6th grade, so you have kids who can actually can't move to the next grade if they fail one of their comps (unless they retake it), so you have some built-in attrition. 5th doesn't have comps so there is always less attrition than after 6th.

Everything else seems on point, particularly that the school enrollment as a whole is bigger so the school must be retaining more students.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I compared BASIS DC numbers from 2019-20 to 2025-26.

Some observations of changes over the last 6 years:

-BASIS let in fewer students for 5th grade but not by much
-the steepest attrition remains after 5th grade (parents realize that BASIS isn’t a good fit) and 8th grade (some kids go to Walls, private, etc.)
-more kids stay for 9th grade, which is resulting in larger class sizes for high school
-overall, there are 59 more students
-there are 48 more high school students

So, the bottom line is that attrition is decreasing at BASIS especially after 5th grade, probably because self-selection for BASIS is getting better (fewer students enroll who don’t have the right fit for the rigor). Yet, because BASIS has not proportionally reduced 5th grade admissions, this has resulted in more students at the school.

A lot of these conclusions are objectively false.

BASIS had 138 5th graders this year. That's the highest number since SY19-20. It's been between 133-135 in every other interim year, with the exception of SY21-22, which had 129. So, no, they're not letting in fewer students.

Attrition between 6th-7th grade is almost always higher than attrition between 5th-6th grade. This was true for every 5th grade cohort from SY19-20 on except the SY21-22 5th grade cohort.

Attrition between 8th-9th grade is actually getting worse over time.
SY19-20 8th grade: -8 in 9th
SY20-21: -18
SY21-22: -14
SY22-23: -27
SY23-24: -22
SY24-25: -28

You are not disputing PP; you are making different arguments. Your statement that PP’s “conclusions are objectively false” is full of sh*t.

1. PP was comparing current numbers to 6 years ago, and the numbers are accurate.

2. PP’s statement that BASIS let in fewer students for 5th grade but not by much is objectively true. in SY 19-20, BASIS let in 141 and in SY 25-26, they let in 138.

3. PP’s statement that most attrition is “after 5th grade” or “8th grade” is correct and you don’t contradict it. 5th grade at BASIS is pretty easy compared to what comes later, so some kids stay for a year but then drop out after a second year. In other words, most attrition is after 5th grade or 8th grade rather than, say, during high school.

3. PP’s statement that more kids stay for 9th grade is accurate. For SY 19-20, 25 left after 8th grade and in SY 25-26 18 left after 8th grade.

4. You don’t dispute PP's conclusion that, compared to 6 years ago, there are more students overall now AND more in high school. The school is indisputably larger than 6 years ago and so is the high school. That obviously means that the school is retaining more students.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:MacArthur 9th grade class is 224 this year. Much larger than first two years (192 and 188). At-risk percentage is down a bit to 37% (39% last year). Guessing more Hardy students continuing on to MacArthur now that J-R grandfathering period is over.

I think this is probably true.

I’m the “crazy that Dunbar is this bad” guy but I honestly don’t see a way out of the problem. It’s a part of the city where charter and private demand can soak up all the inbounds kids. The only way it would get better is if you had a sufficient mass of people who are 1. Public school and nothing else ideologists (they exist) 2. Housing locked/committed to that neighborhood 3. Not willing/able to lottery out of Dunbar to another DCPS. Not a large enough group of 1,2 and 3 to matter.

Probably possible to estimate who would go to Dunbar but lottery out to other public high schools (to get a sense of the size of “1,”) but it’s a fun thought experiment to think about how you would do that.

Dunbar is our IB and we wouldn't send our kid there if it was the only option. If there was no other school and we couldn't move and we couldn't afford private, we'd home school.

Our current feeder is Eastern and we also aren't enthusiastic about it but we'd send DC there before home schooling.

Same! No way to Dunbar. If we both strike out in the lottery and selective schools I will be seeing you at Eastern, my neighbor. And I'm glad to have it as an option and glad to see its progress.

What's making Eastern potentially okay is the strength of the feeder schools. Dunbar doesn't have that. And yes it's a circular feedback process.

And yes the massive oversaturation of charters in Ward 5 is a big part of this dynamic.

The bolded is the thing. The other to improvement is through the middle schools, and the path to improvement of the middle schools is through the elementary schools. It’s a slow process.

Well yes, but it's not *only* through the elementary schools. The choices the middle school administration makes matter a lot, and a good middle school can attract students from many elementaries.

Dunbar's feeder group includes some schools that aren't that bad, such as Burroughs. And schools like Lee and Sela that serve some kids IB for Dunbar and don't have a specific high school feeder so those kids could potentially come into the DCPS system. But right now they're choosing not to. And the IB middle schools really struggle.

If Dunbar could get kids from inspired that would be a massive improvement.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:MacArthur 9th grade class is 224 this year. Much larger than first two years (192 and 188). At-risk percentage is down a bit to 37% (39% last year). Guessing more Hardy students continuing on to MacArthur now that J-R grandfathering period is over.

I think this is probably true.

I’m the “crazy that Dunbar is this bad” guy but I honestly don’t see a way out of the problem. It’s a part of the city where charter and private demand can soak up all the inbounds kids. The only way it would get better is if you had a sufficient mass of people who are 1. Public school and nothing else ideologists (they exist) 2. Housing locked/committed to that neighborhood 3. Not willing/able to lottery out of Dunbar to another DCPS. Not a large enough group of 1,2 and 3 to matter.

Probably possible to estimate who would go to Dunbar but lottery out to other public high schools (to get a sense of the size of “1,”) but it’s a fun thought experiment to think about how you would do that.

Dunbar is our IB and we wouldn't send our kid there if it was the only option. If there was no other school and we couldn't move and we couldn't afford private, we'd home school.

Our current feeder is Eastern and we also aren't enthusiastic about it but we'd send DC there before home schooling.

Same! No way to Dunbar. If we both strike out in the lottery and selective schools I will be seeing you at Eastern, my neighbor. And I'm glad to have it as an option and glad to see its progress.

What's making Eastern potentially okay is the strength of the feeder schools. Dunbar doesn't have that. And yes it's a circular feedback process.

And yes the massive oversaturation of charters in Ward 5 is a big part of this dynamic.

The bolded is the thing. The other to improvement is through the middle schools, and the path to improvement of the middle schools is through the elementary schools. It’s a slow process.

Well yes, but it's not *only* through the elementary schools. The choices the middle school administration makes matter a lot, and a good middle school can attract students from many elementaries.

Dunbar's feeder group includes some schools that aren't that bad, such as Burroughs. And schools like Lee and Sela that serve some kids IB for Dunbar and don't have a specific high school feeder so those kids could potentially come into the DCPS system. But right now they're choosing not to. And the IB middle schools really struggle.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I compared BASIS DC numbers from 2019-20 to 2025-26.

Some observations of changes over the last 6 years:

-BASIS let in fewer students for 5th grade but not by much
-the steepest attrition remains after 5th grade (parents realize that BASIS isn’t a good fit) and 8th grade (some kids go to Walls, private, etc.)
-more kids stay for 9th grade, which is resulting in larger class sizes for high school
-overall, there are 59 more students
-there are 48 more high school students

So, the bottom line is that attrition is decreasing at BASIS especially after 5th grade, probably because self-selection for BASIS is getting better (fewer students enroll who don’t have the right fit for the rigor). Yet, because BASIS has not proportionally reduced 5th grade admissions, this has resulted in more students at the school.

A lot of these conclusions are objectively false.

BASIS had 138 5th graders this year. That's the highest number since SY19-20. It's been between 133-135 in every other interim year, with the exception of SY21-22, which had 129. So, no, they're not letting in fewer students.

Attrition between 6th-7th grade is almost always higher than attrition between 5th-6th grade. This was true for every 5th grade cohort from SY19-20 on except the SY21-22 5th grade cohort.

Attrition between 8th-9th grade is actually getting worse over time.
SY19-20 8th grade: -8 in 9th
SY20-21: -18
SY21-22: -14
SY22-23: -27
SY23-24: -22
SY24-25: -28

You are not disputing PP; you are making different arguments. Your statement that PP’s “conclusions are objectively false” is full of sh*t.

1. PP was comparing current numbers to 6 years ago, and the numbers are accurate.

2. PP’s statement that BASIS let in fewer students for 5th grade but not by much is objectively true. in SY 19-20, BASIS let in 141 and in SY 25-26, they let in 138.

3. PP’s statement that most attrition is “after 5th grade” or “8th grade” is correct and you don’t contradict it. 5th grade at BASIS is pretty easy compared to what comes later, so some kids stay for a year but then drop out after a second year. In other words, most attrition is after 5th grade or 8th grade rather than, say, during high school.

3. PP’s statement that more kids stay for 9th grade is accurate. For SY 19-20, 25 left after 8th grade and in SY 25-26 18 left after 8th grade.

4. You don’t dispute PP's conclusion that, compared to 6 years ago, there are more students overall now AND more in high school. The school is indisputably larger than 6 years ago and so is the high school. That obviously means that the school is retaining more students.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I compared BASIS DC numbers from 2019-20 to 2025-26.

Some observations of changes over the last 6 years:

-BASIS let in fewer students for 5th grade but not by much
-the steepest attrition remains after 5th grade (parents realize that BASIS isn’t a good fit) and 8th grade (some kids go to Walls, private, etc.)
-more kids stay for 9th grade, which is resulting in larger class sizes for high school
-overall, there are 59 more students
-there are 48 more high school students

So, the bottom line is that attrition is decreasing at BASIS especially after 5th grade, probably because self-selection for BASIS is getting better (fewer students enroll who don’t have the right fit for the rigor). Yet, because BASIS has not proportionally reduced 5th grade admissions, this has resulted in more students at the school.

A lot of these conclusions are objectively false.

BASIS had 138 5th graders this year. That's the highest number since SY19-20. It's been between 133-135 in every other interim year, with the exception of SY21-22, which had 129. So, no, they're not letting in fewer students.

Attrition between 6th-7th grade is almost always higher than attrition between 5th-6th grade. This was true for every 5th grade cohort from SY19-20 on except the SY21-22 5th grade cohort.

Attrition between 8th-9th grade is actually getting worse over time.
SY19-20 8th grade: -8 in 9th
SY20-21: -18
SY21-22: -14
SY22-23: -27
SY23-24: -22
SY24-25: -28

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:MacArthur 9th grade class is 224 this year. Much larger than first two years (192 and 188). At-risk percentage is down a bit to 37% (39% last year). Guessing more Hardy students continuing on to MacArthur now that J-R grandfathering period is over.

I think this is probably true.

I’m the “crazy that Dunbar is this bad” guy but I honestly don’t see a way out of the problem. It’s a part of the city where charter and private demand can soak up all the inbounds kids. The only way it would get better is if you had a sufficient mass of people who are 1. Public school and nothing else ideologists (they exist) 2. Housing locked/committed to that neighborhood 3. Not willing/able to lottery out of Dunbar to another DCPS. Not a large enough group of 1,2 and 3 to matter.

Probably possible to estimate who would go to Dunbar but lottery out to other public high schools (to get a sense of the size of “1,”) but it’s a fun thought experiment to think about how you would do that.

Dunbar is our IB and we wouldn't send our kid there if it was the only option. If there was no other school and we couldn't move and we couldn't afford private, we'd home school.

Our current feeder is Eastern and we also aren't enthusiastic about it but we'd send DC there before home schooling.

Same! No way to Dunbar. If we both strike out in the lottery and selective schools I will be seeing you at Eastern, my neighbor. And I'm glad to have it as an option and glad to see its progress.

What's making Eastern potentially okay is the strength of the feeder schools. Dunbar doesn't have that. And yes it's a circular feedback process.

And yes the massive oversaturation of charters in Ward 5 is a big part of this dynamic.

PP here and yes, you nailed it. We did PK at our IB and very quickly realized it was just a total no go and fled, as did pretty much everyone else in our neighborhood. We were lucky to get a spot at a good Ward 6 elementary for K, I know lots of people who wound up at charters, and we know people who moved. But it's notable that our choice to lottery wasn't driven by Dunbar at all -- HS wasn't even on our radar at the time. We just wanted an elementary program that felt reasonably nurturing and would meet our kids academic needs, and we could tell that was not the case with our IB.

But it just trickles up. If you can't get buy in at the elementary level, you'll never get HS buy in. Even in Ward 6, we can tell most families are not enthusiastic about Eastern. But people are trying the middle schools in greater numbers (partly out of necessity as there aren't great alternatives, but also there are definitely some people for home S-H, at least, is a genuine top choice) and especially among elementary parents there is an increasing sense that Eastern might be an okay option within the next 5-6 years (maybe) or within the next 10 years (almost certainly). It's encouraging.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:MacArthur 9th grade class is 224 this year. Much larger than first two years (192 and 188). At-risk percentage is down a bit to 37% (39% last year). Guessing more Hardy students continuing on to MacArthur now that J-R grandfathering period is over.

I think this is probably true.

I’m the “crazy that Dunbar is this bad” guy but I honestly don’t see a way out of the problem. It’s a part of the city where charter and private demand can soak up all the inbounds kids. The only way it would get better is if you had a sufficient mass of people who are 1. Public school and nothing else ideologists (they exist) 2. Housing locked/committed to that neighborhood 3. Not willing/able to lottery out of Dunbar to another DCPS. Not a large enough group of 1,2 and 3 to matter.

Probably possible to estimate who would go to Dunbar but lottery out to other public high schools (to get a sense of the size of “1,”) but it’s a fun thought experiment to think about how you would do that.

Dunbar is our IB and we wouldn't send our kid there if it was the only option. If there was no other school and we couldn't move and we couldn't afford private, we'd home school.

Our current feeder is Eastern and we also aren't enthusiastic about it but we'd send DC there before home schooling.

Same! No way to Dunbar. If we both strike out in the lottery and selective schools I will be seeing you at Eastern, my neighbor. And I'm glad to have it as an option and glad to see its progress.

What's making Eastern potentially okay is the strength of the feeder schools. Dunbar doesn't have that. And yes it's a circular feedback process.

And yes the massive oversaturation of charters in Ward 5 is a big part of this dynamic.

The bolded is the thing. The other to improvement is through the middle schools, and the path to improvement of the middle schools is through the elementary schools. It’s a slow process.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:MacArthur 9th grade class is 224 this year. Much larger than first two years (192 and 188). At-risk percentage is down a bit to 37% (39% last year). Guessing more Hardy students continuing on to MacArthur now that J-R grandfathering period is over.

I think this is probably true.

I’m the “crazy that Dunbar is this bad” guy but I honestly don’t see a way out of the problem. It’s a part of the city where charter and private demand can soak up all the inbounds kids. The only way it would get better is if you had a sufficient mass of people who are 1. Public school and nothing else ideologists (they exist) 2. Housing locked/committed to that neighborhood 3. Not willing/able to lottery out of Dunbar to another DCPS. Not a large enough group of 1,2 and 3 to matter.

Probably possible to estimate who would go to Dunbar but lottery out to other public high schools (to get a sense of the size of “1,”) but it’s a fun thought experiment to think about how you would do that.

Dunbar is our IB and we wouldn't send our kid there if it was the only option. If there was no other school and we couldn't move and we couldn't afford private, we'd home school.

Our current feeder is Eastern and we also aren't enthusiastic about it but we'd send DC there before home schooling.

Same! No way to Dunbar. If we both strike out in the lottery and selective schools I will be seeing you at Eastern, my neighbor. And I'm glad to have it as an option and glad to see its progress.

What's making Eastern potentially okay is the strength of the feeder schools. Dunbar doesn't have that. And yes it's a circular feedback process.

And yes the massive oversaturation of charters in Ward 5 is a big part of this dynamic.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:MacArthur 9th grade class is 224 this year. Much larger than first two years (192 and 188). At-risk percentage is down a bit to 37% (39% last year). Guessing more Hardy students continuing on to MacArthur now that J-R grandfathering period is over.

I think this is probably true.

I’m the “crazy that Dunbar is this bad” guy but I honestly don’t see a way out of the problem. It’s a part of the city where charter and private demand can soak up all the inbounds kids. The only way it would get better is if you had a sufficient mass of people who are 1. Public school and nothing else ideologists (they exist) 2. Housing locked/committed to that neighborhood 3. Not willing/able to lottery out of Dunbar to another DCPS. Not a large enough group of 1,2 and 3 to matter.

Probably possible to estimate who would go to Dunbar but lottery out to other public high schools (to get a sense of the size of “1,”) but it’s a fun thought experiment to think about how you would do that.

Dunbar is our IB and we wouldn't send our kid there if it was the only option. If there was no other school and we couldn't move and we couldn't afford private, we'd home school.

Our current feeder is Eastern and we also aren't enthusiastic about it but we'd send DC there before home schooling.

Same! No way to Dunbar. If we both strike out in the lottery and selective schools I will be seeing you at Eastern, my neighbor. And I'm glad to have it as an option and glad to see its progress.

What's making Eastern potentially okay is the strength of the feeder schools. Dunbar doesn't have that. And yes it's a circular feedback process.

And yes the massive oversaturation of charters in Ward 5 is a big part of this dynamic.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:MacArthur 9th grade class is 224 this year. Much larger than first two years (192 and 188). At-risk percentage is down a bit to 37% (39% last year). Guessing more Hardy students continuing on to MacArthur now that J-R grandfathering period is over.

I think this is probably true.

I’m the “crazy that Dunbar is this bad” guy but I honestly don’t see a way out of the problem. It’s a part of the city where charter and private demand can soak up all the inbounds kids. The only way it would get better is if you had a sufficient mass of people who are 1. Public school and nothing else ideologists (they exist) 2. Housing locked/committed to that neighborhood 3. Not willing/able to lottery out of Dunbar to another DCPS. Not a large enough group of 1,2 and 3 to matter.

Probably possible to estimate who would go to Dunbar but lottery out to other public high schools (to get a sense of the size of “1,”) but it’s a fun thought experiment to think about how you would do that.