Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:That's why I don't understand why every year there are rumblings about conspiracies to rig the tournament in favor of Metro. The Metro Travel teams should always be in contention to win most of the open divisions. The Metro Travel teams should be seeded highly because they are amongst the best teams inthe tournament - that's how seeding works.
The issues with seeding aren't about where Metro is seeded its how the other teams are seeded relative to Metro. In a typical 48 team tournament the pools are set up so that the first pool should be the #1, #24, #25 & #48 teams in the tournament. The second pool is #2, #23, #26 and #47, etc. This is universally the approach in every tournament except power pool tournaments (like NIT). After day 1 the top finisher in pool 1 plays the 2nd finisher in pool 2 (which should be #1 vs #23) while the #1 finisher in pool 2 plays the #2 finisher in pool #1. Same for pools 3 & 4, etc.
Importantly, teams in pools 3 & 4 can't compete against pool 1 & 2 until day 3 in gold bracket. So if you want to make sure you get to gold bracket and get a good seed, you don't want to play any of the high ranked teams on day 1 or day 2. Being ranked #1 in the tournament takes care of that on day 1. But what about day 2? Sometimes good teams have a "off" match and end up coming out 2nd in a pool that they should have won.
If you had bias in seeding you would try to make sure than none of the top teams could play you on day 2, regardless of how their day 1 went. And you would try to seed the tournament so that the best teams compete against each other and knock each other out, so you don't have to face them later.
Here are the relative ranks based on current AES ranks of the teams in the AES ranks of the teams in the 15 Open division in pools 1-4:
Pool 1: Metro Travel: #1 (AES #3), American 15 Red: #31 (AES #1134)
Pool 2: 540 VB 15 Elite: #20 (542), VA Elite 15: #12 (283)
Pool 3: Pittsburgh 15 Elite: #25 (747), Loudoun Elite 15 Tony: #9 (235)
Pool 4: MDJRS 15 Elite Black: #2 (57), VEVA Fury: #16 (449)
Notice how Pool #4 has the #2 overall team while Pool has 2 no teams in the top 10? In fact, the #2 seed in the overall tournament (540 VB) isn't even ranked in the top 500 nationally (and lost head to head matches against Blue Ridge, Yorktowne, and VEVA Fury -- all of whom are seeded below them in the tournament). And they already played Metro at Charm City and lost in a blowout. Meanwhile, pool 4 has the second overall seed ensuring no matter what happens Metro travel is guaranteed not to play them on day 2.
Also, if the first four pools only have 2 of the top 8 teams (when it should be 4/8), that means the remaining pools must have more top teams competing against each other (6/8 in this case meaning that those teams), effectively "stacking" the competition on the other side of the bracket from Metro.
Similar seeding changes where made in 16 Open (just showing AES ranks this time)
Pool 1: Metro Travel (9), Chicago Elite 16 (1018)
Pool 2: Ultimate VBC 16 Gold (840), ECJVC 16 National (775)
Pool 3: Blue Ridge 16 Blue (73), CHAVC 16 Black (582)
Pool 4: MVSA 16 Sparks (170) , CALI 16 Black (NR-1173 last year)
Pool 2 doesn't have a highly ranked team in it. The #2 seed (Ultimate VBTC) has 15+ teams ranked above them in AES in the tournament. The second highest ranked team in the tournament per AES (Blue Ridge) is in pool 3, guaranteed not to play Metro on day 2 or until the semifinals on day 3. There's also the same issue with stacking teams in the lower pools.
17 Open
Pool 1: Metro Travel (19), Rival 17 Black (384)
Pool 2: Chicago Elite 17 (326), Huskies 17U Premier (NR-772 last year)
Pool 3: 757 17 Black (789), VA Juniors 17 (64)
Pool 4: TVC 17 Black (48) , 575 17WSE Taylor (NR)
Again, the #2 (TVC) and #3 (VA Juniors) teams overall are in pool 3 & 4, while pool 2 is the weakest of the 4, and the same issue with team stacking.
There are other inconsistencies in the other divisions. Its true seeding is an inexact science. AES ranks aren't perfect (although they do have a strong correlation to future performance against teams that are significantly higher or lower than your ranking). Tournament directors can and should move teams up or down based on additional info not available in AES. But systemic inconsistencies like the 3 above are statistically unlikely, supporting a basis for the claims that Metro gets beneficial seeding at Capitol Hill. It doesn't happen in every division every year but it does happen frequently enough it appears there is some bias, either intentionally or unintentionally.
You have too much time on your hands, I fear.
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:That's why I don't understand why every year there are rumblings about conspiracies to rig the tournament in favor of Metro. The Metro Travel teams should always be in contention to win most of the open divisions. The Metro Travel teams should be seeded highly because they are amongst the best teams inthe tournament - that's how seeding works.
The issues with seeding aren't about where Metro is seeded its how the other teams are seeded relative to Metro. In a typical 48 team tournament the pools are set up so that the first pool should be the #1, #24, #25 & #48 teams in the tournament. The second pool is #2, #23, #26 and #47, etc. This is universally the approach in every tournament except power pool tournaments (like NIT). After day 1 the top finisher in pool 1 plays the 2nd finisher in pool 2 (which should be #1 vs #23) while the #1 finisher in pool 2 plays the #2 finisher in pool #1. Same for pools 3 & 4, etc.
Importantly, teams in pools 3 & 4 can't compete against pool 1 & 2 until day 3 in gold bracket. So if you want to make sure you get to gold bracket and get a good seed, you don't want to play any of the high ranked teams on day 1 or day 2. Being ranked #1 in the tournament takes care of that on day 1. But what about day 2? Sometimes good teams have a "off" match and end up coming out 2nd in a pool that they should have won.
If you had bias in seeding you would try to make sure than none of the top teams could play you on day 2, regardless of how their day 1 went. And you would try to seed the tournament so that the best teams compete against each other and knock each other out, so you don't have to face them later.
Here are the relative ranks based on current AES ranks of the teams in the AES ranks of the teams in the 15 Open division in pools 1-4:
Pool 1: Metro Travel: #1 (AES #3), American 15 Red: #31 (AES #1134)
Pool 2: 540 VB 15 Elite: #20 (542), VA Elite 15: #12 (283)
Pool 3: Pittsburgh 15 Elite: #25 (747), Loudoun Elite 15 Tony: #9 (235)
Pool 4: MDJRS 15 Elite Black: #2 (57), VEVA Fury: #16 (449)
Notice how Pool #4 has the #2 overall team while Pool has 2 no teams in the top 10? In fact, the #2 seed in the overall tournament (540 VB) isn't even ranked in the top 500 nationally (and lost head to head matches against Blue Ridge, Yorktowne, and VEVA Fury -- all of whom are seeded below them in the tournament). And they already played Metro at Charm City and lost in a blowout. Meanwhile, pool 4 has the second overall seed ensuring no matter what happens Metro travel is guaranteed not to play them on day 2.
Also, if the first four pools only have 2 of the top 8 teams (when it should be 4/8), that means the remaining pools must have more top teams competing against each other (6/8 in this case meaning that those teams), effectively "stacking" the competition on the other side of the bracket from Metro.
Similar seeding changes where made in 16 Open (just showing AES ranks this time)
Pool 1: Metro Travel (9), Chicago Elite 16 (1018)
Pool 2: Ultimate VBC 16 Gold (840), ECJVC 16 National (775)
Pool 3: Blue Ridge 16 Blue (73), CHAVC 16 Black (582)
Pool 4: MVSA 16 Sparks (170) , CALI 16 Black (NR-1173 last year)
Pool 2 doesn't have a highly ranked team in it. The #2 seed (Ultimate VBTC) has 15+ teams ranked above them in AES in the tournament. The second highest ranked team in the tournament per AES (Blue Ridge) is in pool 3, guaranteed not to play Metro on day 2 or until the semifinals on day 3. There's also the same issue with stacking teams in the lower pools.
17 Open
Pool 1: Metro Travel (19), Rival 17 Black (384)
Pool 2: Chicago Elite 17 (326), Huskies 17U Premier (NR-772 last year)
Pool 3: 757 17 Black (789), VA Juniors 17 (64)
Pool 4: TVC 17 Black (48) , 575 17WSE Taylor (NR)
Again, the #2 (TVC) and #3 (VA Juniors) teams overall are in pool 3 & 4, while pool 2 is the weakest of the 4, and the same issue with team stacking.
There are other inconsistencies in the other divisions. Its true seeding is an inexact science. AES ranks aren't perfect (although they do have a strong correlation to future performance against teams that are significantly higher or lower than your ranking). Tournament directors can and should move teams up or down based on additional info not available in AES. But systemic inconsistencies like the 3 above are statistically unlikely, supporting a basis for the claims that Metro gets beneficial seeding at Capitol Hill. It doesn't happen in every division every year but it does happen frequently enough it appears there is some bias, either intentionally or unintentionally.
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Potentially in the future, the Cap City Classic can be moved to a different date by the Metro organizers so that Metro teams can play in the Triple Crown NIT. It waits to be seen.
Happy Friday, everyone.!!!!
Potentially in the future the Triple Crown NIT can be moved to a different date so that Metro can participate. Both alternatives have about the same probability of happening. It waits to be seen.
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:That's why I don't understand why every year there are rumblings about conspiracies to rig the tournament in favor of Metro. The Metro Travel teams should always be in contention to win most of the open divisions. The Metro Travel teams should be seeded highly because they are amongst the best teams inthe tournament - that's how seeding works.
The issues with seeding aren't about where Metro is seeded its how the other teams are seeded relative to Metro. In a typical 48 team tournament the pools are set up so that the first pool should be the #1, #24, #25 & #48 teams in the tournament. The second pool is #2, #23, #26 and #47, etc. This is universally the approach in every tournament except power pool tournaments (like NIT). After day 1 the top finisher in pool 1 plays the 2nd finisher in pool 2 (which should be #1 vs #23) while the #1 finisher in pool 2 plays the #2 finisher in pool #1. Same for pools 3 & 4, etc.
Importantly, teams in pools 3 & 4 can't compete against pool 1 & 2 until day 3 in gold bracket. So if you want to make sure you get to gold bracket and get a good seed, you don't want to play any of the high ranked teams on day 1 or day 2. Being ranked #1 in the tournament takes care of that on day 1. But what about day 2? Sometimes good teams have a "off" match and end up coming out 2nd in a pool that they should have won.
If you had bias in seeding you would try to make sure than none of the top teams could play you on day 2, regardless of how their day 1 went. And you would try to seed the tournament so that the best teams compete against each other and knock each other out, so you don't have to face them later.
Here are the relative ranks based on current AES ranks of the teams in the AES ranks of the teams in the 15 Open division in pools 1-4:
Pool 1: Metro Travel: #1 (AES #3), American 15 Red: #31 (AES #1134)
Pool 2: 540 VB 15 Elite: #20 (542), VA Elite 15: #12 (283)
Pool 3: Pittsburgh 15 Elite: #25 (747), Loudoun Elite 15 Tony: #9 (235)
Pool 4: MDJRS 15 Elite Black: #2 (57), VEVA Fury: #16 (449)
Notice how Pool #4 has the #2 overall team while Pool has 2 no teams in the top 10? In fact, the #2 seed in the overall tournament (540 VB) isn't even ranked in the top 500 nationally (and lost head to head matches against Blue Ridge, Yorktowne, and VEVA Fury -- all of whom are seeded below them in the tournament). And they already played Metro at Charm City and lost in a blowout. Meanwhile, pool 4 has the second overall seed ensuring no matter what happens Metro travel is guaranteed not to play them on day 2.
Also, if the first four pools only have 2 of the top 8 teams (when it should be 4/8), that means the remaining pools must have more top teams competing against each other (6/8 in this case meaning that those teams), effectively "stacking" the competition on the other side of the bracket from Metro.
Similar seeding changes where made in 16 Open (just showing AES ranks this time)
Pool 1: Metro Travel (9), Chicago Elite 16 (1018)
Pool 2: Ultimate VBC 16 Gold (840), ECJVC 16 National (775)
Pool 3: Blue Ridge 16 Blue (73), CHAVC 16 Black (582)
Pool 4: MVSA 16 Sparks (170) , CALI 16 Black (NR-1173 last year)
Pool 2 doesn't have a highly ranked team in it. The #2 seed (Ultimate VBTC) has 15+ teams ranked above them in AES in the tournament. The second highest ranked team in the tournament per AES (Blue Ridge) is in pool 3, guaranteed not to play Metro on day 2 or until the semifinals on day 3. There's also the same issue with stacking teams in the lower pools.
17 Open
Pool 1: Metro Travel (19), Rival 17 Black (384)
Pool 2: Chicago Elite 17 (326), Huskies 17U Premier (NR-772 last year)
Pool 3: 757 17 Black (789), VA Juniors 17 (64)
Pool 4: TVC 17 Black (48) , 575 17WSE Taylor (NR)
Again, the #2 (TVC) and #3 (VA Juniors) teams overall are in pool 3 & 4, while pool 2 is the weakest of the 4, and the same issue with team stacking.
There are other inconsistencies in the other divisions. Its true seeding is an inexact science. AES ranks aren't perfect (although they do have a strong correlation to future performance against teams that are significantly higher or lower than your ranking). Tournament directors can and should move teams up or down based on additional info not available in AES. But systemic inconsistencies like the 3 above are statistically unlikely, supporting a basis for the claims that Metro gets beneficial seeding at Capitol Hill. It doesn't happen in every division every year but it does happen frequently enough it appears there is some bias, either intentionally or unintentionally.
What you’re describing happened last year.
Metro 16 Travel was ranked No. 1 overall (pool 1), and EC Power KOP 16 was ranked No. 2 (pool 2).
On Saturday, both teams went 3–0.
On Sunday, Metro went 3–0, while EC Power went 2–1 (lost a match in three sets).
On Monday, Metro lost to EC Power 1–2 in the first round of the Gold Bracket.
EC Power finished first, and Metro Travel finished ninth.
It makes sense that Metro would make the second pool weaker to prevent this from happening again.
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:That's why I don't understand why every year there are rumblings about conspiracies to rig the tournament in favor of Metro. The Metro Travel teams should always be in contention to win most of the open divisions. The Metro Travel teams should be seeded highly because they are amongst the best teams inthe tournament - that's how seeding works.
The issues with seeding aren't about where Metro is seeded its how the other teams are seeded relative to Metro. In a typical 48 team tournament the pools are set up so that the first pool should be the #1, #24, #25 & #48 teams in the tournament. The second pool is #2, #23, #26 and #47, etc. This is universally the approach in every tournament except power pool tournaments (like NIT). After day 1 the top finisher in pool 1 plays the 2nd finisher in pool 2 (which should be #1 vs #23) while the #1 finisher in pool 2 plays the #2 finisher in pool #1. Same for pools 3 & 4, etc.
Importantly, teams in pools 3 & 4 can't compete against pool 1 & 2 until day 3 in gold bracket. So if you want to make sure you get to gold bracket and get a good seed, you don't want to play any of the high ranked teams on day 1 or day 2. Being ranked #1 in the tournament takes care of that on day 1. But what about day 2? Sometimes good teams have a "off" match and end up coming out 2nd in a pool that they should have won.
If you had bias in seeding you would try to make sure than none of the top teams could play you on day 2, regardless of how their day 1 went. And you would try to seed the tournament so that the best teams compete against each other and knock each other out, so you don't have to face them later.
Here are the relative ranks based on current AES ranks of the teams in the AES ranks of the teams in the 15 Open division in pools 1-4:
Pool 1: Metro Travel: #1 (AES #3), American 15 Red: #31 (AES #1134)
Pool 2: 540 VB 15 Elite: #20 (542), VA Elite 15: #12 (283)
Pool 3: Pittsburgh 15 Elite: #25 (747), Loudoun Elite 15 Tony: #9 (235)
Pool 4: MDJRS 15 Elite Black: #2 (57), VEVA Fury: #16 (449)
Notice how Pool #4 has the #2 overall team while Pool has 2 no teams in the top 10? In fact, the #2 seed in the overall tournament (540 VB) isn't even ranked in the top 500 nationally (and lost head to head matches against Blue Ridge, Yorktowne, and VEVA Fury -- all of whom are seeded below them in the tournament). And they already played Metro at Charm City and lost in a blowout. Meanwhile, pool 4 has the second overall seed ensuring no matter what happens Metro travel is guaranteed not to play them on day 2.
Also, if the first four pools only have 2 of the top 8 teams (when it should be 4/8), that means the remaining pools must have more top teams competing against each other (6/8 in this case meaning that those teams), effectively "stacking" the competition on the other side of the bracket from Metro.
Similar seeding changes where made in 16 Open (just showing AES ranks this time)
Pool 1: Metro Travel (9), Chicago Elite 16 (1018)
Pool 2: Ultimate VBC 16 Gold (840), ECJVC 16 National (775)
Pool 3: Blue Ridge 16 Blue (73), CHAVC 16 Black (582)
Pool 4: MVSA 16 Sparks (170) , CALI 16 Black (NR-1173 last year)
Pool 2 doesn't have a highly ranked team in it. The #2 seed (Ultimate VBTC) has 15+ teams ranked above them in AES in the tournament. The second highest ranked team in the tournament per AES (Blue Ridge) is in pool 3, guaranteed not to play Metro on day 2 or until the semifinals on day 3. There's also the same issue with stacking teams in the lower pools.
17 Open
Pool 1: Metro Travel (19), Rival 17 Black (384)
Pool 2: Chicago Elite 17 (326), Huskies 17U Premier (NR-772 last year)
Pool 3: 757 17 Black (789), VA Juniors 17 (64)
Pool 4: TVC 17 Black (48) , 575 17WSE Taylor (NR)
Again, the #2 (TVC) and #3 (VA Juniors) teams overall are in pool 3 & 4, while pool 2 is the weakest of the 4, and the same issue with team stacking.
There are other inconsistencies in the other divisions. Its true seeding is an inexact science. AES ranks aren't perfect (although they do have a strong correlation to future performance against teams that are significantly higher or lower than your ranking). Tournament directors can and should move teams up or down based on additional info not available in AES. But systemic inconsistencies like the 3 above are statistically unlikely, supporting a basis for the claims that Metro gets beneficial seeding at Capitol Hill. It doesn't happen in every division every year but it does happen frequently enough it appears there is some bias, either intentionally or unintentionally.
Anonymous wrote:What I found interesting is in 12 C, there is another metro 12-2 Travel team. What is that team? That is not a team on their website.
Anonymous wrote:That's why I don't understand why every year there are rumblings about conspiracies to rig the tournament in favor of Metro. The Metro Travel teams should always be in contention to win most of the open divisions. The Metro Travel teams should be seeded highly because they are amongst the best teams inthe tournament - that's how seeding works.
Anonymous wrote:The Cap Hill Classic owners clear well over a million after all expenses. It is big business. In addition to the registration fees and the passes, they get a kickback from every hotel room that is booked.
Anonymous wrote:Potentially in the future, the Cap City Classic can be moved to a different date by the Metro organizers so that Metro teams can play in the Triple Crown NIT. It waits to be seen.
Happy Friday, everyone.!!!!
Anonymous wrote:No one thinks there’s a literal smoke-filled room with villains twirling mustaches. It’s much simpler: when the host club prioritizes this over Triple Crown (for valid historical reasons), then seeds itself high at its own event (don’t kid yourself that it’s not a Metro event), and the founder’s kid is front and center on social, the “optics” do the heavy lifting.
And yes, the best teams end up in gold, especially when a chunk of the actual other national contenders are in Kansas City. So it’s dominating a field that thinned itself out.
Metro regionals not sweeping lower divisions isn’t the gotcha you think it is. Even a homer tournament can’t manufacture talent across that many teams.
Anonymous wrote:No one thinks there’s a literal smoke-filled room with villains twirling mustaches. It’s much simpler: when the host club prioritizes this over Triple Crown (for valid historical reasons), then seeds itself high at its own event (don’t kid yourself that it’s not a Metro event), and the founder’s kid is front and center on social, the “optics” do the heavy lifting.
And yes, the best teams end up in gold, especially when a chunk of the actual other national contenders are in Kansas City. So it’s dominating a field that thinned itself out.
Metro regionals not sweeping lower divisions isn’t the gotcha you think it is. Even a homer tournament can’t manufacture talent across that many teams.