Anonymous wrote:We are in lower NW. There are so many houses for sale. For the past 10 years you would be lucky to see 2-3 houses a year for sale. Now you see that on one block.

A lot of that is boomers dying off.

I live out of the area and have a house that even this week should have flown considering limited inventory and the price point. Last night we had 3 agents writing offers for their clients. As of noon today, all 3 buyers got cold feet and are pausing.

We couldn’t go to market earlier because we had to finish a small renovation to make the house acceptable for our market, but now our timing feels as crappy as it could possibly be. I’m not panicking but I’m not feeling great at all. There was nothing we could do about our timing but as someone who graduated into two recessions, I’d love for one major event in my life to not be accompanied by huge global drama.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Inventory will fall even lower. People will sit on low interest rates and ride it out.

Exactly this. I would love to buy a larger house in my neighborhood but no one is selling. The cheapest thing for many people (anyone who bought more than three years ago) is to stay put (unless they need to move for a new job, but hiring is basically frozen too). And most boomers aren't leaving their huge houses to downsize either unless they're on death's doorstep.

+1 It's not even cheaper to downsize when you factor in higher interest rates, realtor fees, transfer taxes, and moving costs. Plus we always spend a bit on the inevitable new storage solutions, painting, and some new furnishings every time we move. Our furniture never perfectly works in the new place so there's always some area that needs a new piece of furniture or a room that needs new lighting.

Anonymous wrote:I was talking to a RE this agent who has had two buyers pull out of contracts in the last week.

Did they say why?

The meme version of this thread: https://x.com/dylanmatt/status/1909316333457858921?s=46

Anonymous wrote:Inventory will fall even lower. People will sit on low interest rates and ride it out.

Exactly this. I would love to buy a larger house in my neighborhood but no one is selling. The cheapest thing for many people (anyone who bought more than three years ago) is to stay put (unless they need to move for a new job, but hiring is basically frozen too). And most boomers aren't leaving their huge houses to downsize either unless they're on death's doorstep.

When stocks are on the way up, people want to get in the game to (hopefully) net some profit.

When stocks are on the way down, people become concerned that they could end up with nothing.

RE values could significantly drop, but you're not going to be left with nothing and you'll be fine if you can hold until the values increase. Only invest in RE if you can hold for 10+ years. You need to be able to ride out any market downturns.

Buying stock, holding on to RE…

Holding on my stocks, holding on the real estate investments. Doubling down on saving and ensuring sufficient cash on hand for whatever downturn is around the corner, or a stock or real estate buying opportunity.

+1 Making no moves in investments right now.

Holding on my stocks, holding on the real estate investments. Doubling down on saving and ensuring sufficient cash on hand for whatever downturn is around the corner, or a stock or real estate buying opportunity.

Anonymous wrote:It's interesting that when stocks are now on sale, people are considering investing in real estate. But when US stock valuations were at an all time high, people thought they were getting a great deal. I mean, they couldn't buy enough stocks and constantly talked about AI, NVIDIA, account balance, etc.

This is always how it works -- when everyone is bragging about how well they're doing in an asset class and speculating about continued growth, that is a contrarian signal (though it's not perfect because, as we saw during the Biden years, the stock market can sustain its upward momentum for a while). But really, it didn't take any work of genius to see that when Biden left, the stock market was at a historically high valuation, and even with a stable president, it couldn't sustain the rally much longer. Throw in an unstable president, and all bets were off. I think people seem to be ignoring the same warning signs with the housing market, but maybe I'm wrong.

I was talking to a RE this agent who has had two buyers pull out of contracts in the last week.

Anonymous wrote:Housing is going to tank. We are on the verge of a full fledged depression. Job losses, foreclosures, business failures, and suicides are all going to go through the roof. Read about the late 1920s if you want to pretend otherwise.

Trump is a Russian asset who has destroyed not just the American economy, but America itself.

You had me until this.

It's interesting that when stocks are now on sale, people are considering investing in real estate. But when US stock valuations were at an all time high, people thought they were getting a great deal. I mean, they couldn't buy enough stocks and constantly talked about AI, NVIDIA, account balance, etc.

Anonymous wrote:People I know are dumping stock (they’ve made plenty even with the recent correction) and moving into hard RE assets (not reits). People need food, medicine, and a roof.

This isn’t a good time for the average person to sell. Unless you need the cash, you’re locking in big losses and RE markets are stronger, especially around DC, than they will be in 2-4 months. RIFs and FORKs and consumer sentiment have a long way to fall, unfortunately. As my kids would say, “ummm, hello” we are in the middle of month three of a four year term.