Anonymous
Post 06/11/2024 12:33     Subject: Re:MS Capitol Hill
Anyone else who can speak from actual experience - what percent of your 4th grade Capitol Hill ES class actually made it into one of those schools (and didn't have sibling preference)?


This answer is a moving target, isn’t it? The higher the odds, the more kids stay to lottery, and the more kids who stay to lottery, the lower the odds.
Anonymous
Post 06/11/2024 12:32     Subject: MS Capitol Hill
My DD didn't get into Latins or BASIS when she was in 4th, in spring 2023. Her number was in the 30th percentile of all numbers, and though she got pretty far on the BASIS list, it wasn't enough. I do think she might have gotten in if they were willing to make offers after the first day of school, but I guess that's just soooooo haaaaaaard.
Anonymous
Post 06/11/2024 12:15     Subject: MS Capitol Hill
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:OP, the likelihood is that you will get into BASIS, Latin I or Latin II and you won’t face the choice of having to send your child to EH, where the overwhelming majority of students are below grade level. I wouldn’t borrow trouble.


Eh based how 4th grade families fared in the lottery at my kid's school, likelihood is low you'll get into any one of these. Maybe a 20-25% chance?


You can probably approximate the chances by using BASIS numbers, because BASIS has less demand than the Latins. There were 473 applications for BASIS this year and the original waitlist was 235. They've since made 44 offers. So about 60% of the kids who wanted BASIS have either gotten an offer or were accepted at preferred schools this year. Those aren't great odds, but they aren't terrible, either.


Scroll down on the page and you'll see how many were siblings or other preferences. 32 out of 140 matches.


Even so. 473 applied, and only 191 are left on the waitlist, so the remaining 282 had a bite at the apple. The siblings were first in line, but of non-siblings, 57% still got an offer or a preferred school.


Okay, but a lot of those kids who got in somewhere else they ranked higher also had a sibling somewhere else and that's why they got in there. I don't know if it's even possible to calculate the odds taking account of sibling status at all schools. But I see a lot of people in my circle (Bloomingdale/Brookland) striking out for 5th and 6th.

ITDS is not that great academically, and I say that as an ITDS middle school parent.


This part. The true odds can't be calculated, especially as most parents who have sibling preference still list other schools just in case, even if it's not logical.

By our own capitol hill school 4th grade parent reported lottery outcomes with many/most applying for Basis and the Latins (including some who applied in the lottery for the heck of it even knowing they had other plans like private or moving), highly doubt odds are over 25-30% without sibling preference and I'm being generous.

Anyone else who can speak from actual experience - what percent of your 4th grade Capitol Hill ES class actually made it into one of those schools (and didn't have sibling preference)?
Anonymous
Post 06/11/2024 12:07     Subject: MS Capitol Hill
Anonymous wrote:My kid got shut out of Latins and Basis three years ago. So yeah, it hasn't been a reliable option in years.


Yup. Really anyone with a below-average lottery number doesn't have any chance at Latins, and it would be iffy for BASIS.

I think a big part of the problem is Two Rivers and CMI middle schools being so bad. There are so many kids at ITDS from those schools!
Anonymous
Post 06/11/2024 12:03     Subject: MS Capitol Hill
My kid got shut out of Latins and Basis three years ago. So yeah, it hasn't been a reliable option in years.
Anonymous
Post 06/11/2024 12:01     Subject: MS Capitol Hill
Anonymous wrote:Latin in particular is incredibly hard to luck into. It briefly looked like the Cooper campus would reduce some of the pressure but I actually think it's had the opposite impact and parents on the east side who previously felt the original latin campus was too far away are all flowing to Cooper.

We are a family that doesn't want BASIS because it's just not a good fit (not for our family or our specific kid) and we will be lotterying for both Latins and ITDS but if we don't get in (which is likely) we will do SH for 6th and see how it goes. We have a plan in place for moving if it just does not work (which we will be using for HS if we don't use it for middle school anyway so we are moving eventually no matter what it's just a question of when).


It did relieve the pressure in the east side, for two years. Now there's really not a noticeable difference because it draws from such a wide area. It was stunning how quickly that transition happened. But I will say, it's 96 new "quality seats" in the system where there used to be zero, and that's something.
Anonymous
Post 06/11/2024 11:58     Subject: MS Capitol Hill
Latin in particular is incredibly hard to luck into. It briefly looked like the Cooper campus would reduce some of the pressure but I actually think it's had the opposite impact and parents on the east side who previously felt the original latin campus was too far away are all flowing to Cooper.

We are a family that doesn't want BASIS because it's just not a good fit (not for our family or our specific kid) and we will be lotterying for both Latins and ITDS but if we don't get in (which is likely) we will do SH for 6th and see how it goes. We have a plan in place for moving if it just does not work (which we will be using for HS if we don't use it for middle school anyway so we are moving eventually no matter what it's just a question of when).
Anonymous
Post 06/11/2024 11:55     Subject: MS Capitol Hill
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:OP, the likelihood is that you will get into BASIS, Latin I or Latin II and you won’t face the choice of having to send your child to EH, where the overwhelming majority of students are below grade level. I wouldn’t borrow trouble.


Eh based how 4th grade families fared in the lottery at my kid's school, likelihood is low you'll get into any one of these. Maybe a 20-25% chance?


You can probably approximate the chances by using BASIS numbers, because BASIS has less demand than the Latins. There were 473 applications for BASIS this year and the original waitlist was 235. They've since made 44 offers. So about 60% of the kids who wanted BASIS have either gotten an offer or were accepted at preferred schools this year. Those aren't great odds, but they aren't terrible, either.


Scroll down on the page and you'll see how many were siblings or other preferences. 32 out of 140 matches.


Even so. 473 applied, and only 191 are left on the waitlist, so the remaining 282 had a bite at the apple. The siblings were first in line, but of non-siblings, 57% still got an offer or a preferred school.


Okay, but a lot of those kids who got in somewhere else they ranked higher also had a sibling somewhere else and that's why they got in there. I don't know if it's even possible to calculate the odds taking account of sibling status at all schools. But I see a lot of people in my circle (Bloomingdale/Brookland) striking out for 5th and 6th.

ITDS is not that great academically, and I say that as an ITDS middle school parent.
Anonymous
Post 06/11/2024 11:51     Subject: MS Capitol Hill
Anonymous wrote:OP, the likelihood is that you will get into BASIS, Latin I or Latin II and you won’t face the choice of having to send your child to EH, where the overwhelming majority of students are below grade level. I wouldn’t borrow trouble.


This is not true anymore.
Anonymous
Post 06/11/2024 11:09     Subject: MS Capitol Hill
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:OP, the likelihood is that you will get into BASIS, Latin I or Latin II and you won’t face the choice of having to send your child to EH, where the overwhelming majority of students are below grade level. I wouldn’t borrow trouble.


Eh based how 4th grade families fared in the lottery at my kid's school, likelihood is low you'll get into any one of these. Maybe a 20-25% chance?


You can probably approximate the chances by using BASIS numbers, because BASIS has less demand than the Latins. There were 473 applications for BASIS this year and the original waitlist was 235. They've since made 44 offers. So about 60% of the kids who wanted BASIS have either gotten an offer or were accepted at preferred schools this year. Those aren't great odds, but they aren't terrible, either.


Scroll down on the page and you'll see how many were siblings or other preferences. 32 out of 140 matches.


Even so. 473 applied, and only 191 are left on the waitlist, so the remaining 282 had a bite at the apple. The siblings were first in line, but of non-siblings, 57% still got an offer or a preferred school.
Anonymous
Post 06/11/2024 11:05     Subject: MS Capitol Hill
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:OP, the likelihood is that you will get into BASIS, Latin I or Latin II and you won’t face the choice of having to send your child to EH, where the overwhelming majority of students are below grade level. I wouldn’t borrow trouble.


Eh based how 4th grade families fared in the lottery at my kid's school, likelihood is low you'll get into any one of these. Maybe a 20-25% chance?


You can probably approximate the chances by using BASIS numbers, because BASIS has less demand than the Latins. There were 473 applications for BASIS this year and the original waitlist was 235. They've since made 44 offers. So about 60% of the kids who wanted BASIS have either gotten an offer or were accepted at preferred schools this year. Those aren't great odds, but they aren't terrible, either.


Scroll down on the page and you'll see how many were siblings or other preferences. 32 out of 140 matches.
Anonymous
Post 06/11/2024 11:01     Subject: MS Capitol Hill
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:OP, the likelihood is that you will get into BASIS, Latin I or Latin II and you won’t face the choice of having to send your child to EH, where the overwhelming majority of students are below grade level. I wouldn’t borrow trouble.


Eh based how 4th grade families fared in the lottery at my kid's school, likelihood is low you'll get into any one of these. Maybe a 20-25% chance?


You can probably approximate the chances by using BASIS numbers, because BASIS has less demand than the Latins. There were 473 applications for BASIS this year and the original waitlist was 235. They've since made 44 offers. So about 60% of the kids who wanted BASIS have either gotten an offer or were accepted at preferred schools this year. Those aren't great odds, but they aren't terrible, either.
Anonymous
Post 06/11/2024 10:56     Subject: MS Capitol Hill
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:OP, the likelihood is that you will get into BASIS, Latin I or Latin II and you won’t face the choice of having to send your child to EH, where the overwhelming majority of students are below grade level. I wouldn’t borrow trouble.


Eh based how 4th grade families fared in the lottery at my kid's school, likelihood is low you'll get into any one of these. Maybe a 20-25% chance?


This. As a nonsibling, it's not very likely.
Anonymous
Post 06/11/2024 10:48     Subject: MS Capitol Hill
Anonymous wrote:OP, the likelihood is that you will get into BASIS, Latin I or Latin II and you won’t face the choice of having to send your child to EH, where the overwhelming majority of students are below grade level. I wouldn’t borrow trouble.


Eh based how 4th grade families fared in the lottery at my kid's school, likelihood is low you'll get into any one of these. Maybe a 20-25% chance?
Anonymous
Post 06/11/2024 10:35     Subject: MS Capitol Hill
OP, the likelihood is that you will get into BASIS, Latin I or Latin II and you won’t face the choice of having to send your child to EH, where the overwhelming majority of students are below grade level. I wouldn’t borrow trouble.