Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Sooner or later the majority of population will be exposed, most probably before vaccine. As long as people are not dying because of overwhelmed hospitals like in Italy, there is little to gain, but a lot to lose by shutting down everything, schools included.

This. Moreover I'm sure better treatment alternatives will be there by fall.

I think that's basically inevitable, just because there will be much more knowledge of the disease, and experience with treatments, by fall.

Certainly, we will be better at treating this in the fall. But the fall also brings cold & flu season and increases all cause mortality. The ICUs start to fill up with respiratory diseases unrelated to the current pandemic. The 1918 flu pandemic had a first wave in the spring but then the big deadly wave in the following fall/winter. It's not just the primary infectious disease but also the secondary infections (pneumonia) that will land people in the hospital.

I wish schools would try to open early. Get the kids in 'classrooms' in outdoor tents and pavilions in parks and stadiums in July. By the time we get to November, we will nearly certainly be shut down again. The second wave is likely to be much worse than the first. Yea yea, start to open up now, but let's please prepare for the very predictable second wave.

It's not 1918, and coronavirus isn't influenza.

Maybe this fall, people will actually go get their flu shots, though.

I am so so tired of people comparing this to what happened in 1918. As if our medical care hasn't improved at all. As if we haven't had any advancement in medical treatments since then. Even general hygiene is at a totally different level. It is in no way compatible.

I think it's comparable in many ways, actually. But "comparable" does not mean "the same."

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Sooner or later the majority of population will be exposed, most probably before vaccine. As long as people are not dying because of overwhelmed hospitals like in Italy, there is little to gain, but a lot to lose by shutting down everything, schools included.

This. Moreover I'm sure better treatment alternatives will be there by fall.

I think that's basically inevitable, just because there will be much more knowledge of the disease, and experience with treatments, by fall.

Certainly, we will be better at treating this in the fall. But the fall also brings cold & flu season and increases all cause mortality. The ICUs start to fill up with respiratory diseases unrelated to the current pandemic. The 1918 flu pandemic had a first wave in the spring but then the big deadly wave in the following fall/winter. It's not just the primary infectious disease but also the secondary infections (pneumonia) that will land people in the hospital.

I wish schools would try to open early. Get the kids in 'classrooms' in outdoor tents and pavilions in parks and stadiums in July. By the time we get to November, we will nearly certainly be shut down again. The second wave is likely to be much worse than the first. Yea yea, start to open up now, but let's please prepare for the very predictable second wave.

It's not 1918, and coronavirus isn't influenza.

Maybe this fall, people will actually go get their flu shots, though.

I am so so tired of people comparing this to what happened in 1918. As if our medical care hasn't improved at all. As if we haven't had any advancement in medical treatments since then. Even general hygiene is at a totally different level. It is in no way compatible.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Sooner or later the majority of population will be exposed, most probably before vaccine. As long as people are not dying because of overwhelmed hospitals like in Italy, there is little to gain, but a lot to lose by shutting down everything, schools included.

This. Moreover I'm sure better treatment alternatives will be there by fall.

I think that's basically inevitable, just because there will be much more knowledge of the disease, and experience with treatments, by fall.

Certainly, we will be better at treating this in the fall. But the fall also brings cold & flu season and increases all cause mortality. The ICUs start to fill up with respiratory diseases unrelated to the current pandemic. The 1918 flu pandemic had a first wave in the spring but then the big deadly wave in the following fall/winter. It's not just the primary infectious disease but also the secondary infections (pneumonia) that will land people in the hospital.

I wish schools would try to open early. Get the kids in 'classrooms' in outdoor tents and pavilions in parks and stadiums in July. By the time we get to November, we will nearly certainly be shut down again. The second wave is likely to be much worse than the first. Yea yea, start to open up now, but let's please prepare for the very predictable second wave.

It's not 1918, and coronavirus isn't influenza.

Maybe this fall, people will actually go get their flu shots, though.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

The curve has not been flattened yet. Decisions are not being made based on what you think is more important or on your opinion. Decisions are being made based on what is the safest possible activity. Schools are one of the least safest activities. You can say they are important all you want, but that doesn't make them safe to open as they existed before. The word essential is not going to re-open schools as they were on March 1st.

The curve has been flattened, decisions are not being made based on what is the safest possible activity, and there is no evidence that schools are one of the least safe activities.

So yes it's been flattened (not growing exponentially anymore) -- but it's not actually FLAT much less declining. rate of new cases is still growing in MoCo and in Maryland more broadly, as it is nationally (when you remove NY from picture):

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/maryland-coronavirus-cases.html
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/06/opinion/coronavirus-deaths-statistics.html

The idea was not to decline the curve. That would be great, but evidently as a country we're incapable of doing that.

Exactly. Flattening the curve means that the same number of people get sick, just over a longer period of time so that the health system can handle
It.

https://www.nytimes.com/article/flatten-curve-coronavirus.html

omg my heard hurts, you're not getting it. it's not flat yet, it's still climbing! difference between verb (flattening) and noun (flat). as a pp said, it's "flattening" (increasing at a lower rate than it was, so closer to a horizontal line than a vertical one) as in but it's not yet there. it's not flat, not in maryland, and esp not in moco.

It has flattened in MD and now deaths, hospitalizations, and even new cases are approximately the same each day, with some variation. It’s not an expontential growth. It is painful that you don’t understand how this works.

pp didn't say it was exponential now. no one has.

Well, with approximately the same numbers each day, it’s flat.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

The curve has not been flattened yet. Decisions are not being made based on what you think is more important or on your opinion. Decisions are being made based on what is the safest possible activity. Schools are one of the least safest activities. You can say they are important all you want, but that doesn't make them safe to open as they existed before. The word essential is not going to re-open schools as they were on March 1st.

The curve has been flattened, decisions are not being made based on what is the safest possible activity, and there is no evidence that schools are one of the least safe activities.

So yes it's been flattened (not growing exponentially anymore) -- but it's not actually FLAT much less declining. rate of new cases is still growing in MoCo and in Maryland more broadly, as it is nationally (when you remove NY from picture):

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/maryland-coronavirus-cases.html
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/06/opinion/coronavirus-deaths-statistics.html

The idea was not to decline the curve. That would be great, but evidently as a country we're incapable of doing that.

Exactly. Flattening the curve means that the same number of people get sick, just over a longer period of time so that the health system can handle
It.

https://www.nytimes.com/article/flatten-curve-coronavirus.html

omg my heard hurts, you're not getting it. it's not flat yet, it's still climbing! difference between verb (flattening) and noun (flat). as a pp said, it's "flattening" (increasing at a lower rate than it was, so closer to a horizontal line than a vertical one) as in but it's not yet there. it's not flat, not in maryland, and esp not in moco.

NP. Look at the site coronavirus.maryland.gov. Look at the hospitalization chart. You will see how it is flat for some time now. Look at the daily death rate chart. You will see that is actually decreasing.

thanks!! v helpful

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

The curve has not been flattened yet. Decisions are not being made based on what you think is more important or on your opinion. Decisions are being made based on what is the safest possible activity. Schools are one of the least safest activities. You can say they are important all you want, but that doesn't make them safe to open as they existed before. The word essential is not going to re-open schools as they were on March 1st.

The curve has been flattened, decisions are not being made based on what is the safest possible activity, and there is no evidence that schools are one of the least safe activities.

So yes it's been flattened (not growing exponentially anymore) -- but it's not actually FLAT much less declining. rate of new cases is still growing in MoCo and in Maryland more broadly, as it is nationally (when you remove NY from picture):

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/maryland-coronavirus-cases.html
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/06/opinion/coronavirus-deaths-statistics.html

The idea was not to decline the curve. That would be great, but evidently as a country we're incapable of doing that.

Exactly. Flattening the curve means that the same number of people get sick, just over a longer period of time so that the health system can handle
It.

https://www.nytimes.com/article/flatten-curve-coronavirus.html

omg my heard hurts, you're not getting it. it's not flat yet, it's still climbing! difference between verb (flattening) and noun (flat). as a pp said, it's "flattening" (increasing at a lower rate than it was, so closer to a horizontal line than a vertical one) as in but it's not yet there. it's not flat, not in maryland, and esp not in moco.

It has flattened in MD and now deaths, hospitalizations, and even new cases are approximately the same each day, with some variation. It’s not an expontential growth. It is painful that you don’t understand how this works.

pp didn't say it was exponential now. no one has.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

The curve has not been flattened yet. Decisions are not being made based on what you think is more important or on your opinion. Decisions are being made based on what is the safest possible activity. Schools are one of the least safest activities. You can say they are important all you want, but that doesn't make them safe to open as they existed before. The word essential is not going to re-open schools as they were on March 1st.

The curve has been flattened, decisions are not being made based on what is the safest possible activity, and there is no evidence that schools are one of the least safe activities.

So yes it's been flattened (not growing exponentially anymore) -- but it's not actually FLAT much less declining. rate of new cases is still growing in MoCo and in Maryland more broadly, as it is nationally (when you remove NY from picture):

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/maryland-coronavirus-cases.html
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/06/opinion/coronavirus-deaths-statistics.html

The idea was not to decline the curve. That would be great, but evidently as a country we're incapable of doing that.

Exactly. Flattening the curve means that the same number of people get sick, just over a longer period of time so that the health system can handle
It.

https://www.nytimes.com/article/flatten-curve-coronavirus.html

omg my heard hurts, you're not getting it. it's not flat yet, it's still climbing! difference between verb (flattening) and noun (flat). as a pp said, it's "flattening" (increasing at a lower rate than it was, so closer to a horizontal line than a vertical one) as in but it's not yet there. it's not flat, not in maryland, and esp not in moco.

It has flattened in MD and now deaths, hospitalizations, and even new cases are approximately the same each day, with some variation. It’s not an expontential growth. It is painful that you don’t understand how this works.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Sooner or later the majority of population will be exposed, most probably before vaccine. As long as people are not dying because of overwhelmed hospitals like in Italy, there is little to gain, but a lot to lose by shutting down everything, schools included.

This. Moreover I'm sure better treatment alternatives will be there by fall.

I think that's basically inevitable, just because there will be much more knowledge of the disease, and experience with treatments, by fall.

Certainly, we will be better at treating this in the fall. But the fall also brings cold & flu season and increases all cause mortality. The ICUs start to fill up with respiratory diseases unrelated to the current pandemic. The 1918 flu pandemic had a first wave in the spring but then the big deadly wave in the following fall/winter. It's not just the primary infectious disease but also the secondary infections (pneumonia) that will land people in the hospital.

I wish schools would try to open early. Get the kids in 'classrooms' in outdoor tents and pavilions in parks and stadiums in July. By the time we get to November, we will nearly certainly be shut down again. The second wave is likely to be much worse than the first. Yea yea, start to open up now, but let's please prepare for the very predictable second wave.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

The curve has not been flattened yet. Decisions are not being made based on what you think is more important or on your opinion. Decisions are being made based on what is the safest possible activity. Schools are one of the least safest activities. You can say they are important all you want, but that doesn't make them safe to open as they existed before. The word essential is not going to re-open schools as they were on March 1st.

The curve has been flattened, decisions are not being made based on what is the safest possible activity, and there is no evidence that schools are one of the least safe activities.

So yes it's been flattened (not growing exponentially anymore) -- but it's not actually FLAT much less declining. rate of new cases is still growing in MoCo and in Maryland more broadly, as it is nationally (when you remove NY from picture):

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/maryland-coronavirus-cases.html
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/06/opinion/coronavirus-deaths-statistics.html

The idea was not to decline the curve. That would be great, but evidently as a country we're incapable of doing that.

Exactly. Flattening the curve means that the same number of people get sick, just over a longer period of time so that the health system can handle
It.

https://www.nytimes.com/article/flatten-curve-coronavirus.html

omg my heard hurts, you're not getting it. it's not flat yet, it's still climbing! difference between verb (flattening) and noun (flat). as a pp said, it's "flattening" (increasing at a lower rate than it was, so closer to a horizontal line than a vertical one) as in but it's not yet there. it's not flat, not in maryland, and esp not in moco.

NP. Look at the site coronavirus.maryland.gov. Look at the hospitalization chart. You will see how it is flat for some time now. Look at the daily death rate chart. You will see that is actually decreasing.

Anonymous wrote:

The number of hospitalizations is starting to flatten, and the number of deaths per day isn’t rising much, which is why Hogan is talking about starting to open things up a bit. But the overall number of cases still show a very steep graph.

The overall number of cases is actually the overall number of confirmed cases, which is a function of the overall number of tests. We could bring the number of cases down to 0 just by stopping all tests.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Guys, Smith literally said "we can't just keep kids out of school for 6 months and think that's ok." They will be back in the fall.

Perhaps the reality of our situation hasn't fully sunk in. We all have to accept things which were previously unimaginable. Who knows, maybe covid will disappear this summer, never to reemerge? This is a situation no one has dealt with before. We're doing things ad hoc and there's no road map.

That’s true, but that also means that we will have to accept certain levels of risk that we would have otherwise found unacceptable.

You don't have the option of accepting the risk for health care workers who have to take care of you when you get sick with COVID-19. That's why the Governor stepped in to stop you from putting others in danger.

Yes, society does have the option of accepting that risk. That’s why things are starting to open gradually. There is a recognition that we need to open parts of the economy to avoid economic ruin. There can and likely will be a similar acknowledgement that we need to educate our children, and also that schools functioning in reasonable form are needed to get people working.

All of these things involve some risk. But there is no risk free option. Leaders are making the tough decisions to calibrate the various risks and trying to strike the right balance.

I agree. There are going to be risks involved with opening, but there are other risks associated with staying shut down indefinitely. I feel for healthcare and other essential workers (I have some in my family) but they also went into these fields understanding the risks involved. Get them sufficient PPE, test regularly. But we can’t stay home until a vaccine is available solely to limit their exposure.

Real heartwarming. Wonder how much compassion you have for people your are not related to.

If we don’t protect them now, I think there will be a lot fewer people willing to take on these jobs in the future. Who wants to take their life in their hands every day? We need to stay home as long as possible to lower their viral load. Or there will be no doctors or nurses left.

But then on the flip side you have doctors who are anxious because they have been furloughed and still have massive student loan bills to pay off. I hope their loans will be forgiven.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

The curve has not been flattened yet. Decisions are not being made based on what you think is more important or on your opinion. Decisions are being made based on what is the safest possible activity. Schools are one of the least safest activities. You can say they are important all you want, but that doesn't make them safe to open as they existed before. The word essential is not going to re-open schools as they were on March 1st.

The curve has been flattened, decisions are not being made based on what is the safest possible activity, and there is no evidence that schools are one of the least safe activities.

So yes it's been flattened (not growing exponentially anymore) -- but it's not actually FLAT much less declining. rate of new cases is still growing in MoCo and in Maryland more broadly, as it is nationally (when you remove NY from picture):

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/maryland-coronavirus-cases.html
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/06/opinion/coronavirus-deaths-statistics.html

The idea was not to decline the curve. That would be great, but evidently as a country we're incapable of doing that.

Exactly. Flattening the curve means that the same number of people get sick, just over a longer period of time so that the health system can handle
It.

https://www.nytimes.com/article/flatten-curve-coronavirus.html

omg my heard hurts, you're not getting it. it's not flat yet, it's still climbing! difference between verb (flattening) and noun (flat). as a pp said, it's "flattening" (increasing at a lower rate than it was, so closer to a horizontal line than a vertical one) as in but it's not yet there. it's not flat, not in maryland, and esp not in moco.

The number of hospitalizations is starting to flatten, and the number of deaths per day isn’t rising much, which is why Hogan is talking about starting to open things up a bit. But the overall number of cases still show a very steep graph.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

The curve has not been flattened yet. Decisions are not being made based on what you think is more important or on your opinion. Decisions are being made based on what is the safest possible activity. Schools are one of the least safest activities. You can say they are important all you want, but that doesn't make them safe to open as they existed before. The word essential is not going to re-open schools as they were on March 1st.

The curve has been flattened, decisions are not being made based on what is the safest possible activity, and there is no evidence that schools are one of the least safe activities.

So yes it's been flattened (not growing exponentially anymore) -- but it's not actually FLAT much less declining. rate of new cases is still growing in MoCo and in Maryland more broadly, as it is nationally (when you remove NY from picture):

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/maryland-coronavirus-cases.html
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/06/opinion/coronavirus-deaths-statistics.html

The idea was not to decline the curve. That would be great, but evidently as a country we're incapable of doing that.

Exactly. Flattening the curve means that the same number of people get sick, just over a longer period of time so that the health system can handle
It.

https://www.nytimes.com/article/flatten-curve-coronavirus.html

omg my heard hurts, you're not getting it. it's not flat yet, it's still climbing! difference between verb (flattening) and noun (flat). as a pp said, it's "flattening" (increasing at a lower rate than it was, so closer to a horizontal line than a vertical one) as in but it's not yet there. it's not flat, not in maryland, and esp not in moco.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Guys, Smith literally said "we can't just keep kids out of school for 6 months and think that's ok." They will be back in the fall.

Perhaps the reality of our situation hasn't fully sunk in. We all have to accept things which were previously unimaginable. Who knows, maybe covid will disappear this summer, never to reemerge? This is a situation no one has dealt with before. We're doing things ad hoc and there's no road map.

That’s true, but that also means that we will have to accept certain levels of risk that we would have otherwise found unacceptable.

You don't have the option of accepting the risk for health care workers who have to take care of you when you get sick with COVID-19. That's why the Governor stepped in to stop you from putting others in danger.

Yes, society does have the option of accepting that risk. That’s why things are starting to open gradually. There is a recognition that we need to open parts of the economy to avoid economic ruin. There can and likely will be a similar acknowledgement that we need to educate our children, and also that schools functioning in reasonable form are needed to get people working.

All of these things involve some risk. But there is no risk free option. Leaders are making the tough decisions to calibrate the various risks and trying to strike the right balance.

I agree. There are going to be risks involved with opening, but there are other risks associated with staying shut down indefinitely. I feel for healthcare and other essential workers (I have some in my family) but they also went into these fields understanding the risks involved. Get them sufficient PPE, test regularly. But we can’t stay home until a vaccine is available solely to limit their exposure.

Real heartwarming. Wonder how much compassion you have for people your are not related to.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

The curve has not been flattened yet. Decisions are not being made based on what you think is more important or on your opinion. Decisions are being made based on what is the safest possible activity. Schools are one of the least safest activities. You can say they are important all you want, but that doesn't make them safe to open as they existed before. The word essential is not going to re-open schools as they were on March 1st.

The curve has been flattened, decisions are not being made based on what is the safest possible activity, and there is no evidence that schools are one of the least safe activities.

So yes it's been flattened (not growing exponentially anymore) -- but it's not actually FLAT much less declining. rate of new cases is still growing in MoCo and in Maryland more broadly, as it is nationally (when you remove NY from picture):

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/maryland-coronavirus-cases.html
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/06/opinion/coronavirus-deaths-statistics.html

The idea was not to decline the curve. That would be great, but evidently as a country we're incapable of doing that.

Exactly. Flattening the curve means that the same number of people get sick, just over a longer period of time so that the health system can handle
It.

https://www.nytimes.com/article/flatten-curve-coronavirus.html