Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:The straight has been closed for 8 day. That is 160 million barrels of oil deficit. The US is releasing 172 million over 4 months. 1.4 million barrels a day.
All in the group of countries are releasing 400 million barrels. If they have the capacity to release the same amount as the US, it’s 3.3 million barrels a day vs 20-21 million that normally flow through the straight.
Is it time to buy some oil futures?
If they are releasing over a 120 day/4 month period, does that not imply that they think this issue will not be resolved anytime soon? Otherwise there would be an unnecessary oversupply towards the end of the period.
No. They are clueless. There is a physical limit to how much can be released. If you say you will release 100 barrels and the plumping only allows one barrel a day to be released it will take 100 days to release the oil. The world is running a 16-17 million barrel a day deficit. The release is too little.
Word is Israel’s attack on Iranian oil infrastructure destroyed Iran’s oil production. This is 3.3-3.6 million barrels a day. That is the same or a little higher vs the pre war world oil surplus. The surplus was why oil was at $58 a barrel pre war. If this is true(Iranian oil infrastructure damaged) prices will remain high after the war is over for a year or two. Demand will exceed surplus.