Anonymous wrote:

I guarantee Elrich will propose a tax increase for FY24 if he wins. He can't sustain his spending.

Whether Council approves it or not, I have no clue. They didn't approve it in FY21. But that's only because we got slammed by COVID.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Elrich is back on top today.

Yup, up by 120 votes

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Everyone seems to be blaming Riemer if Blair ends up losing. People will argue though whether he drew more votes from Elrich or Blair. But what about Peter James? He seems to have a more similar profile to Blair (Private sector CEO w/o previous government experience) and got over 2,000 votes. If he hadn't run, I would think likely a lot more of those votes would have gone in favor of Blair.

It’s Riemer’s fault. James wasn’t attacking Blair constantly. Riemer was. On social media. In debates. In TV ads. An Elrich victory will be 100 percent Riemer’s fault. That will be the main part of Riemer’s lasting legacy.

This is partly my point. James wasn't doing much of anything - so why did he even run? Just having his name on the ballot could have potentially made enough of a difference in the outcome and swung it to Elrich, regardless of what Riemer did. I guess you could make the same argument on a large scale if Riemer didn't run, but Riemer was at least running because he thought he was a viable candidate and had a shot at winning.

And, you can't put the blame all on other candidates either. If Blair loses, it's his fault also. In 2 separate elections he has not been able to draw majority support. He just does not have widespread appeal. I voted for him not with any particular enthusiasm for him as a candidate, but because I didn't want Elrich to have a 2nd term.

All this goes to show though is that we really need ranked choice voting.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Everyone seems to be blaming Riemer if Blair ends up losing. People will argue though whether he drew more votes from Elrich or Blair. But what about Peter James? He seems to have a more similar profile to Blair (Private sector CEO w/o previous government experience) and got over 2,000 votes. If he hadn't run, I would think likely a lot more of those votes would have gone in favor of Blair.

It’s Riemer’s fault. James wasn’t attacking Blair constantly. Riemer was. On social media. In debates. In TV ads. An Elrich victory will be 100 percent Riemer’s fault. That will be the main part of Riemer’s lasting legacy.

This is partly my point. James wasn't doing much of anything - so why did he even run? Just having his name on the ballot could have potentially made enough of a difference in the outcome and swung it to Elrich, regardless of what Riemer did. I guess you could make the same argument on a large scale if Riemer didn't run, but Riemer was at least running because he thought he was a viable candidate and had a shot at winning.

And, you can't put the blame all on other candidates either. If Blair loses, it's his fault also. In 2 separate elections he has not been able to draw majority support. He just does not have widespread appeal. I voted for him not with any particular enthusiasm for him as a candidate, but because I didn't want Elrich to have a 2nd term.

All this goes to show though is that we really need ranked choice voting.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Everyone seems to be blaming Riemer if Blair ends up losing. People will argue though whether he drew more votes from Elrich or Blair. But what about Peter James? He seems to have a more similar profile to Blair (Private sector CEO w/o previous government experience) and got over 2,000 votes. If he hadn't run, I would think likely a lot more of those votes would have gone in favor of Blair.

It’s Riemer’s fault. James wasn’t attacking Blair constantly. Riemer was. On social media. In debates. In TV ads. An Elrich victory will be 100 percent Riemer’s fault. That will be the main part of Riemer’s lasting legacy.

Anonymous wrote:Everyone seems to be blaming Riemer if Blair ends up losing. People will argue though whether he drew more votes from Elrich or Blair. But what about Peter James? He seems to have a more similar profile to Blair (Private sector CEO w/o previous government experience) and got over 2,000 votes. If he hadn't run, I would think likely a lot more of those votes would have gone in favor of Blair.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Everyone seems to be blaming Riemer if Blair ends up losing. People will argue though whether he drew more votes from Elrich or Blair. But what about Peter James? He seems to have a more similar profile to Blair (Private sector CEO w/o previous government experience) and got over 2,000 votes. If he hadn't run, I would think likely a lot more of those votes would have gone in favor of Blair.

I somewhat agree with you regarding potential Blair voters going to James, but honestly, I think those people were casting protest votes.... as in "I'm not voting for Elrich because (reason), not for Reimer because (other reason), not for Blair (insert 3rd reason). So I'm picking someone who has no shot to win." When I'm in this situation, sometimes I do a throw-away vote, other times I skip that particular race.

I think anyone who paid attention to 2018 would have known that every vote has the potential to change the election. Of course, some of the 2022 voters probably didn't pay attention to 2018...

If James hadn't run, maybe some of those who voted for him wouldn't have voted at all. But at least some I think would have still voted, and enough of that group I think would have voted for Blair over Elrich or Riemer, at least enough to make up for a 100-200 vote deficit. At least Riemer ran because he probably thought he had a chance of winning. Not sure why James ran at all other than to be a spoiler. Conspiracy theory - maybe that was the plan and he is friends with Elrich!

Without talking to the James voters -- or getting some sort of demographic information on them -- it's impossible to know.

Does the county/state publish vote counts by precinct/district? If so, we could at least see where James ranked higher on voter share. My guess would be his community. (And I'm too lazy to look up where he lives.)

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Everyone seems to be blaming Riemer if Blair ends up losing. People will argue though whether he drew more votes from Elrich or Blair. But what about Peter James? He seems to have a more similar profile to Blair (Private sector CEO w/o previous government experience) and got over 2,000 votes. If he hadn't run, I would think likely a lot more of those votes would have gone in favor of Blair.

I somewhat agree with you regarding potential Blair voters going to James, but honestly, I think those people were casting protest votes.... as in "I'm not voting for Elrich because (reason), not for Reimer because (other reason), not for Blair (insert 3rd reason). So I'm picking someone who has no shot to win." When I'm in this situation, sometimes I do a throw-away vote, other times I skip that particular race.

I think anyone who paid attention to 2018 would have known that every vote has the potential to change the election. Of course, some of the 2022 voters probably didn't pay attention to 2018...

If James hadn't run, maybe some of those who voted for him wouldn't have voted at all. But at least some I think would have still voted, and enough of that group I think would have voted for Blair over Elrich or Riemer, at least enough to make up for a 100-200 vote deficit. At least Riemer ran because he probably thought he had a chance of winning. Not sure why James ran at all other than to be a spoiler. Conspiracy theory - maybe that was the plan and he is friends with Elrich!

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Everyone seems to be blaming Riemer if Blair ends up losing. People will argue though whether he drew more votes from Elrich or Blair. But what about Peter James? He seems to have a more similar profile to Blair (Private sector CEO w/o previous government experience) and got over 2,000 votes. If he hadn't run, I would think likely a lot more of those votes would have gone in favor of Blair.

I somewhat agree with you regarding potential Blair voters going to James, but honestly, I think those people were casting protest votes.... as in "I'm not voting for Elrich because (reason), not for Reimer because (other reason), not for Blair (insert 3rd reason). So I'm picking someone who has no shot to win." When I'm in this situation, sometimes I do a throw-away vote, other times I skip that particular race.

I think anyone who paid attention to 2018 would have known that every vote has the potential to change the election. Of course, some of the 2022 voters probably didn't pay attention to 2018...

Anonymous wrote:Everyone seems to be blaming Riemer if Blair ends up losing. People will argue though whether he drew more votes from Elrich or Blair. But what about Peter James? He seems to have a more similar profile to Blair (Private sector CEO w/o previous government experience) and got over 2,000 votes. If he hadn't run, I would think likely a lot more of those votes would have gone in favor of Blair.