Anonymous wrote:Goldman and Morgan Stanley think we haven’t hit bottom (and they’ve called this correctly so far).

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/morgan-stanley-goldman-strategists-see-072309250.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZHJ1ZGdlcmVwb3J0LmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAGuB5nt3c_lLLP0SfSMAJSv2JucPZjDM0iGFXo7AygrUjzkHvSBskWT0sasp8KcxTdFhn4yvylkgzy23HT0kvYgDqyi-s1luqEGulq4g8QBVWQE96opJWXAOfmdUUeK9NoJtMcTGRN9zCHcM5QowADhKuXUaL0vYbwmoMQvyugvB

The key read-across from the 1970s is when investors start to believe that inflation will stay high for longer, equity markets begin to focus on real instead of nominal earnings-per-share rate, which for this year is likely to be negative, SocGen said.

“We have still not seen the true bottom for equities yet,” Kabra said.

His counterpart Michael J. Wilson at Morgan Stanley, one of Wall Street’s most vocal bears and who correctly predicted the latest market selloff, agrees that the S&P 500 needs to drop another 15% to 20% to about 3,000 points for the market to fully reflect the scale of economic contraction.

“The bear market will not be over until recession arrives or the risk of one is extinguished,” the Morgan Stanley team said.

The calls from Wall Street’s top strategists underline how investor sentiment on risk assets has soured in recent weeks as runaway inflation and a hawkish Federal Reserve raised the specter of a prolonged economic contraction. Wilson said that should a full-blown recession become the market’s base case, the S&P 500 could bottom near to 2,900 index points -- more than 21% below its last close.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:All of this has been blown WAAAAYYY out of proportion. In the next six to eighteen months, investors will realize this was a great BUYING opportunity. In the next six months, war will end, commodities will flow, COVID will be readily treatable, shutdowns will cease, supply chains will heal, and inflation will consequently decrease. However, by the time all these issues are resolved (or obviously so), the market lows will be long gone. Invest now for years of juicy returns.

Juicy returns - what are you smoking? The juicy returns took place over the previous 13 years, when the market averaged close to 18% compounded. That is almost double the historical, centuries-long record of 9.5%.

Have you ever heard of reversion to the mean? Many serious analysts believe that we are in for a lost decade (or more) for stocks.

What are you smoking? The NASDAQ is 35% off the highs you mention. And the highs this time around are nowhere like those of 2000. If you take NASDAQ post 2000-02 blowup to today, it’s about a 12% compounded rate of return. Given that stocks return about 10% and NASDAQ is higher vol/beta, 12% doesn’t seem unreasonable. Current prices are not in la-la land.

DP. P/E does not look bad but that's because while P has come down, the E hasn't been adjusted yet. Consensus estimates still have quite a bit of growth pencilled in for 2023 that isn't going to happen in a recession. So earnings will start to be revised down, probably when the Q2 earnings season starts in July and we will experience further decline then. After that dust has settled should be a buying opportunity.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:All of this has been blown WAAAAYYY out of proportion. In the next six to eighteen months, investors will realize this was a great BUYING opportunity. In the next six months, war will end, commodities will flow, COVID will be readily treatable, shutdowns will cease, supply chains will heal, and inflation will consequently decrease. However, by the time all these issues are resolved (or obviously so), the market lows will be long gone. Invest now for years of juicy returns.

Juicy returns - what are you smoking? The juicy returns took place over the previous 13 years, when the market averaged close to 18% compounded. That is almost double the historical, centuries-long record of 9.5%.

Have you ever heard of reversion to the mean? Many serious analysts believe that we are in for a lost decade (or more) for stocks.

What are you smoking? The NASDAQ is 35% off the highs you mention. And the highs this time around are nowhere like those of 2000. If you take NASDAQ post 2000-02 blowup to today, it’s about a 12% compounded rate of return. Given that stocks return about 10% and NASDAQ is higher vol/beta, 12% doesn’t seem unreasonable. Current prices are not in la-la land.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:All of this has been blown WAAAAYYY out of proportion. In the next six to eighteen months, investors will realize this was a great BUYING opportunity. In the next six months, war will end, commodities will flow, COVID will be readily treatable, shutdowns will cease, supply chains will heal, and inflation will consequently decrease. However, by the time all these issues are resolved (or obviously so), the market lows will be long gone. Invest now for years of juicy returns.

Juicy returns - what are you smoking? The juicy returns took place over the previous 13 years, when the market averaged close to 18% compounded. That is almost double the historical, centuries-long record of 9.5%.

Have you ever heard of reversion to the mean? Many serious analysts believe that we are in for a lost decade (or more) for stocks.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Told. You. So.


But go ahead and keep buying the dip like programmed fools.

This market will keep drilling with the insane Fed hikes and a much more hawkish FF rate at YE than was expected. Costs for borrowing skyrocket now. So many companies earnings are going to tank. A giant reset of PE for the market will take place. Buy the dippers are buying at highs and will be stuck for a very, very long time. The era with a. Fed put is over.

the sky is falling...the sky is falling...

If you cannot see the risks for an impending recession, you are just dumb at this point.

Can we please just get this recession started? I've been hearing about it for the last 6 months (or more).

People are acting like a recession is the end of the world. I’ve lived through four previous ones. They last for 12-18 months, and absolutely suck if you’re in an industry that’s particularly affected. Then growth resumes & we’re back to the start of a normal business cycle. I see no evidence that this recession will be worse than others.

Yeah except for the fact the the US has record deficits and can't stimulate its way out this time until inflation stops. It will also blow up the deficit even more. Once people lose faith in the USD because US debt is massive, everything goes to hell as the world ditches the dollar.

And what currency will they go with then?

Anonymous wrote:All of this has been blown WAAAAYYY out of proportion. In the next six to eighteen months, investors will realize this was a great BUYING opportunity. In the next six months, war will end, commodities will flow, COVID will be readily treatable, shutdowns will cease, supply chains will heal, and inflation will consequently decrease. However, by the time all these issues are resolved (or obviously so), the market lows will be long gone. Invest now for years of juicy returns.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:All of this has been blown WAAAAYYY out of proportion. In the next six to eighteen months, investors will realize this was a great BUYING opportunity. In the next six months, war will end, commodities will flow, COVID will be readily treatable, shutdowns will cease, supply chains will heal, and inflation will consequently decrease. However, by the time all these issues are resolved (or obviously so), the market lows will be long gone. Invest now for years of juicy returns.

There will be a buying opportunity sometime in the next year or so. I doubt it’s now.

I also wouldn’t bet on a return to the Fed juicing the market any time soon. And don’t buy Biden’s “Putin’s price hike” BS (unless you live in Europe). Losing one million barrels a day of refinery capacity (and counting — more is due to be shut down soon) was going to move gas prices higher, war or no (and Europe is still buying fuels from Russia). Even if the war ends, we’ll still be shipping LNG to Europe — they will not go back to being completely dependent on Russia again.

Anonymous wrote:All of this has been blown WAAAAYYY out of proportion. In the next six to eighteen months, investors will realize this was a great BUYING opportunity. In the next six months, war will end, commodities will flow, COVID will be readily treatable, shutdowns will cease, supply chains will heal, and inflation will consequently decrease. However, by the time all these issues are resolved (or obviously so), the market lows will be long gone. Invest now for years of juicy returns.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Told. You. So.


But go ahead and keep buying the dip like programmed fools.

This market will keep drilling with the insane Fed hikes and a much more hawkish FF rate at YE than was expected. Costs for borrowing skyrocket now. So many companies earnings are going to tank. A giant reset of PE for the market will take place. Buy the dippers are buying at highs and will be stuck for a very, very long time. The era with a. Fed put is over.

the sky is falling...the sky is falling...

If you cannot see the risks for an impending recession, you are just dumb at this point.

Can we please just get this recession started? I've been hearing about it for the last 6 months (or more).

People are acting like a recession is the end of the world. I’ve lived through four previous ones. They last for 12-18 months, and absolutely suck if you’re in an industry that’s particularly affected. Then growth resumes & we’re back to the start of a normal business cycle. I see no evidence that this recession will be worse than others.

Yeah except for the fact the the US has record deficits and can't stimulate its way out this time until inflation stops. It will also blow up the deficit even more. Once people lose faith in the USD because US debt is massive, everything goes to hell as the world ditches the dollar.

Then maybe we should revisit that 2017 tax bill.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Told. You. So.


But go ahead and keep buying the dip like programmed fools.

This market will keep drilling with the insane Fed hikes and a much more hawkish FF rate at YE than was expected. Costs for borrowing skyrocket now. So many companies earnings are going to tank. A giant reset of PE for the market will take place. Buy the dippers are buying at highs and will be stuck for a very, very long time. The era with a. Fed put is over.

the sky is falling...the sky is falling...

If you cannot see the risks for an impending recession, you are just dumb at this point.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Told. You. So.


But go ahead and keep buying the dip like programmed fools.

This market will keep drilling with the insane Fed hikes and a much more hawkish FF rate at YE than was expected. Costs for borrowing skyrocket now. So many companies earnings are going to tank. A giant reset of PE for the market will take place. Buy the dippers are buying at highs and will be stuck for a very, very long time. The era with a. Fed put is over.

the sky is falling...the sky is falling...

If you cannot see the risks for an impending recession, you are just dumb at this point.

Can we please just get this recession started? I've been hearing about it for the last 6 months (or more).

People are acting like a recession is the end of the world. I’ve lived through four previous ones. They last for 12-18 months, and absolutely suck if you’re in an industry that’s particularly affected. Then growth resumes & we’re back to the start of a normal business cycle. I see no evidence that this recession will be worse than others.

Yeah except for the fact the the US has record deficits and can't stimulate its way out this time until inflation stops. It will also blow up the deficit even more. Once people lose faith in the USD because US debt is massive, everything goes to hell as the world ditches the dollar.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Told. You. So.


But go ahead and keep buying the dip like programmed fools.

This market will keep drilling with the insane Fed hikes and a much more hawkish FF rate at YE than was expected. Costs for borrowing skyrocket now. So many companies earnings are going to tank. A giant reset of PE for the market will take place. Buy the dippers are buying at highs and will be stuck for a very, very long time. The era with a. Fed put is over.

the sky is falling...the sky is falling...

If you cannot see the risks for an impending recession, you are just dumb at this point.

Can we please just get this recession started? I've been hearing about it for the last 6 months (or more).

People are acting like a recession is the end of the world. I’ve lived through four previous ones. They last for 12-18 months, and absolutely suck if you’re in an industry that’s particularly affected. Then growth resumes & we’re back to the start of a normal business cycle. I see no evidence that this recession will be worse than others.

Yeah except for the fact the the US has record deficits and can't stimulate its way out this time until inflation stops. It will also blow up the deficit even more. Once people lose faith in the USD because US debt is massive, everything goes to hell as the world ditches the dollar.

And what currency will they go with then?