Anonymous
10/26/2020 12:09
Subject: Polls and Lols: A 2020 Master Thread
Me neither but Barr has broad powers to investigate matters that are "in the interest of the United States". Who will check him? The House refuses to enforce subpoenas. The Senate refuses to do anything but confirm judges.
Look at Trump's life. Things go badly, and he finds lawyers to fight things, delay things, and throw everything at the wall and see what sticks.
--
If Barr thinks he can't win, he won't follow through. This is why he delayed the Durham investigation and made Trump angry. What incentive would he have after the election to play a weak hand?
I agree. But 2020 has been full of unpleasant surprises. I would not be surprised at all if there is BS on his part following Nov 3.
Anonymous
10/26/2020 12:07
Subject: Polls and Lols: A 2020 Master Thread
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Texas will be announced on Election Day. If Biden wins Texas, it’s over for Trump. Without Texas no Republican can win the Presidency. As Texas turns purple you might start hearing Republicans saying they want to get rid of the electoral college because millions of Texans will vote Republican but won’t get any electors.
When they announce Texas for Biden, he wins. In 2016, 8 millions Texans voted. So far, 7 million Texans already voted. Extremely high turnout - I think Biden wins Texas and he wins the election on Election Day while other states are still counting votes.
That would be amazing but honestly seems unlikely. Florida and Ohio will announce results first out of all the swing states. I remember in 08 and 12 they knew Obama had it in the bag on election night based on just those two states and I think it was over fairly early both nights. At least in 2012 I remember going to bed not too much later than normal knowing Obama was projected to win!
Biden has had a small steady lead in FL since March. OH has been a horse race with Biden often "up" since March.
Anonymous
10/26/2020 12:07
Subject: Polls and Lols: A 2020 Master Thread
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Texas will be announced on Election Day. If Biden wins Texas, it’s over for Trump. Without Texas no Republican can win the Presidency. As Texas turns purple you might start hearing Republicans saying they want to get rid of the electoral college because millions of Texans will vote Republican but won’t get any electors.
When they announce Texas for Biden, he wins. In 2016, 8 millions Texans voted. So far, 7 million Texans already voted. Extremely high turnout - I think Biden wins Texas and he wins the election on Election Day while other states are still counting votes.
I doubt he wins. If he wins, it will be close. If its close, there will be litigation and the Supreme Court will ultimately side with the republicans. I am sorry, I want Biden but we are far from a victory.
I wouldn't count on Gorsuch and Roberts siding with them just because. The other 4 are hopeless though, obviously.
Roberts is notoriously bad on voting rights, so I would...
I doubt the Supreme Court will reverse votes. There is no precedent for what you’re describing. What exactly are you suggesting they will do? Bush V Gore - Bush won and the Supreme Court stopped the recount. What you’re saying is that Texas announces Biden wins then the Supreme Court reverses that?
My understanding is that most of the Texas early vote is in person.
The RNC will likely try to claim fraud or that improper votes were cast. There may be "investigations". Barr may join. They may succeed in dragging things into December, at which point courts may rule on if some votes can be counted or not.
IANAL but does Barr even have standing to bring a lawsuit? Wouldn’t the Trump campaign have to do it?
Are you saying that they’re going to go back and scrutinize every single vote? That would be incredibly costly, the Trump campaign would go bankrupt.
Me neither but Barr has broad powers to investigate matters that are "in the interest of the United States". Who will check him? The House refuses to enforce subpoenas. The Senate refuses to do anything but confirm judges.
Look at Trump's life. Things go badly, and he finds lawyers to fight things, delay things, and throw everything at the wall and see what sticks.
If Barr thinks he can't win, he won't follow through. This is why he delayed the Durham investigation and made Trump angry. What incentive would he have after the election to play a weak hand?
Anonymous
10/26/2020 12:01
Subject: Polls and Lols: A 2020 Master Thread
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Why are Texas and Georgia so close this time? Even Obama didn’t inspire such numbers. Are the polls simply off?
I’m not expert, but changing demographics. Obama was 8-12 years ago at this point. Plus a solid amount of republican trump defectors, and a growing national trend towards more independents. Just my guess.
This plus GOP loss of suburban women. Affects the big suburbs around Atlanta, Houston, Dallas, Austin and San Antonio.
Anonymous
10/26/2020 11:59
Subject: Polls and Lols: A 2020 Master Thread
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Why are Texas and Georgia so close this time? Even Obama didn’t inspire such numbers. Are the polls simply off?
I’m not expert, but changing demographics. Obama was 8-12 years ago at this point. Plus a solid amount of republican trump defectors, and a growing national trend towards more independents. Just my guess.
An article this morning about Georgia said that a lot of the surge is a backlash by AA voters against GOP voter suppression. Stacy Abrams has been effective with this.
I buy this. People don't stand in line all day unless they're angry.
Anonymous
10/26/2020 11:58
Subject: Polls and Lols: A 2020 Master Thread
Anonymous wrote:Texas will be announced on Election Day. If Biden wins Texas, it’s over for Trump. Without Texas no Republican can win the Presidency. As Texas turns purple you might start hearing Republicans saying they want to get rid of the electoral college because millions of Texans will vote Republican but won’t get any electors.
When they announce Texas for Biden, he wins. In 2016, 8 millions Texans voted. So far, 7 million Texans already voted. Extremely high turnout - I think Biden wins Texas and he wins the election on Election Day while other states are still counting votes.
That would be amazing but honestly seems unlikely. Florida and Ohio will announce results first out of all the swing states. I remember in 08 and 12 they knew Obama had it in the bag on election night based on just those two states and I think it was over fairly early both nights. At least in 2012 I remember going to bed not too much later than normal knowing Obama was projected to win!
Anonymous
10/26/2020 11:58
Subject: Polls and Lols: A 2020 Master Thread
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Texas will be announced on Election Day. If Biden wins Texas, it’s over for Trump. Without Texas no Republican can win the Presidency. As Texas turns purple you might start hearing Republicans saying they want to get rid of the electoral college because millions of Texans will vote Republican but won’t get any electors.
When they announce Texas for Biden, he wins. In 2016, 8 millions Texans voted. So far, 7 million Texans already voted. Extremely high turnout - I think Biden wins Texas and he wins the election on Election Day while other states are still counting votes.
I doubt he wins. If he wins, it will be close. If its close, there will be litigation and the Supreme Court will ultimately side with the republicans. I am sorry, I want Biden but we are far from a victory.
I wouldn't count on Gorsuch and Roberts siding with them just because. The other 4 are hopeless though, obviously.
Roberts is notoriously bad on voting rights, so I would...
I doubt the Supreme Court will reverse votes. There is no precedent for what you’re describing. What exactly are you suggesting they will do? Bush V Gore - Bush won and the Supreme Court stopped the recount. What you’re saying is that Texas announces Biden wins then the Supreme Court reverses that?
My understanding is that most of the Texas early vote is in person.
The RNC will likely try to claim fraud or that improper votes were cast. There may be "investigations". Barr may join. They may succeed in dragging things into December, at which point courts may rule on if some votes can be counted or not.
IANAL but does Barr even have standing to bring a lawsuit? Wouldn’t the Trump campaign have to do it?
Are you saying that they’re going to go back and scrutinize every single vote? That would be incredibly costly, the Trump campaign would go bankrupt.
Me neither but Barr has broad powers to investigate matters that are "in the interest of the United States". Who will check him? The House refuses to enforce subpoenas. The Senate refuses to do anything but confirm judges.
Look at Trump's life. Things go badly, and he finds lawyers to fight things, delay things, and throw everything at the wall and see what sticks.
Anonymous
10/26/2020 11:56
Subject: Polls and Lols: A 2020 Master Thread
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Texas will be announced on Election Day. If Biden wins Texas, it’s over for Trump. Without Texas no Republican can win the Presidency. As Texas turns purple you might start hearing Republicans saying they want to get rid of the electoral college because millions of Texans will vote Republican but won’t get any electors.
When they announce Texas for Biden, he wins. In 2016, 8 millions Texans voted. So far, 7 million Texans already voted. Extremely high turnout - I think Biden wins Texas and he wins the election on Election Day while other states are still counting votes.
I doubt he wins. If he wins, it will be close. If its close, there will be litigation and the Supreme Court will ultimately side with the republicans. I am sorry, I want Biden but we are far from a victory.
I wouldn't count on Gorsuch and Roberts siding with them just because. The other 4 are hopeless though, obviously.
Roberts is notoriously bad on voting rights, so I would...
I doubt the Supreme Court will reverse votes. There is no precedent for what you’re describing. What exactly are you suggesting they will do? Bush V Gore - Bush won and the Supreme Court stopped the recount. What you’re saying is that Texas announces Biden wins then the Supreme Court reverses that?
My understanding is that most of the Texas early vote is in person.
The RNC will likely try to claim fraud or that improper votes were cast. There may be "investigations". Barr may join. They may succeed in dragging things into December, at which point courts may rule on if some votes can be counted or not.
They can try to clam it, but, you know, Federalism means this is up to each state to validate and count the votes. They all have different rules and standards, so there would need to be specificity as to why a method or process is flawed. There would also need to be enough votes at stake to make a different. If a candidate is up by 100,000 votes and there are only 20,000 votes being contested, then there is no reason to proceed with said contest.
Anonymous
10/26/2020 11:53
Subject: Polls and Lols: A 2020 Master Thread
Anonymous wrote:
I doubt he wins. If he wins, it will be close. If its close, there will be litigation and the Supreme Court will ultimately side with the republicans. I am sorry, I want Biden but we are far from a victory.
There might be a few states that are close. States that won't be close: MI, PA, WI.
I would submit that the EC numbers on election night or by the end of the day on 11/4 will be such that there won't be any need for SCOTUS challenges.
Anonymous
10/26/2020 11:45
Subject: Polls and Lols: A 2020 Master Thread
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Why are Texas and Georgia so close this time? Even Obama didn’t inspire such numbers. Are the polls simply off?
I’m not expert, but changing demographics. Obama was 8-12 years ago at this point. Plus a solid amount of republican trump defectors, and a growing national trend towards more independents. Just my guess.
An article this morning about Georgia said that a lot of the surge is a backlash by AA voters against GOP voter suppression. Stacy Abrams has been effective with this.
Also the suburban women and college-educated vote has swung hard against Trump.
Anonymous
10/26/2020 11:45
Subject: Polls and Lols: A 2020 Master Thread
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Texas will be announced on Election Day. If Biden wins Texas, it’s over for Trump. Without Texas no Republican can win the Presidency. As Texas turns purple you might start hearing Republicans saying they want to get rid of the electoral college because millions of Texans will vote Republican but won’t get any electors.
When they announce Texas for Biden, he wins. In 2016, 8 millions Texans voted. So far, 7 million Texans already voted. Extremely high turnout - I think Biden wins Texas and he wins the election on Election Day while other states are still counting votes.
I doubt he wins. If he wins, it will be close. If its close, there will be litigation and the Supreme Court will ultimately side with the republicans. I am sorry, I want Biden but we are far from a victory.
I wouldn't count on Gorsuch and Roberts siding with them just because. The other 4 are hopeless though, obviously.
Roberts is notoriously bad on voting rights, so I would...
I doubt the Supreme Court will reverse votes. There is no precedent for what you’re describing. What exactly are you suggesting they will do? Bush V Gore - Bush won and the Supreme Court stopped the recount. What you’re saying is that Texas announces Biden wins then the Supreme Court reverses that?
My understanding is that most of the Texas early vote is in person.
The RNC will likely try to claim fraud or that improper votes were cast. There may be "investigations". Barr may join. They may succeed in dragging things into December, at which point courts may rule on if some votes can be counted or not.
IANAL but does Barr even have standing to bring a lawsuit? Wouldn’t the Trump campaign have to do it?
Are you saying that they’re going to go back and scrutinize every single vote? That would be incredibly costly, the Trump campaign would go bankrupt.
Anonymous
10/26/2020 11:42
Subject: Polls and Lols: A 2020 Master Thread
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Texas will be announced on Election Day. If Biden wins Texas, it’s over for Trump. Without Texas no Republican can win the Presidency. As Texas turns purple you might start hearing Republicans saying they want to get rid of the electoral college because millions of Texans will vote Republican but won’t get any electors.
When they announce Texas for Biden, he wins. In 2016, 8 millions Texans voted. So far, 7 million Texans already voted. Extremely high turnout - I think Biden wins Texas and he wins the election on Election Day while other states are still counting votes.
I doubt he wins. If he wins, it will be close. If its close, there will be litigation and the Supreme Court will ultimately side with the republicans. I am sorry, I want Biden but we are far from a victory.
I wouldn't count on Gorsuch and Roberts siding with them just because. The other 4 are hopeless though, obviously.
Roberts is notoriously bad on voting rights, so I would...
He is, but I think you have to distinguish between voting rights cases that are about policy before an election where the impact is hypothetical and voting rights cases after an election where the impact would be determinative. Roberts is above all concerned with preserving the Constitutional system and the integrity of the Court. He won't want the Court to appear like it has its thumb on the scale for Trump, because that would damage both. That's why a decisive majority even in the national vote totals is important. Historically, the Court has never veered too far from public opinion.
+1
There’s a huge difference between allowing people to vote and taking all the Democrats that already voted and throwing their votes away. The Supreme Court may be right wing now but they’re still lawyers that want to have a system of laws to judge over. If the Supreme Court starts appointing Presidents then the Republic is done. They won’t do this. Now if Trump wins by a single vote, I wouldn’t put it past them to stop/prevent a recount though.
Anonymous
10/26/2020 11:42
Subject: Polls and Lols: A 2020 Master Thread
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Texas will be announced on Election Day. If Biden wins Texas, it’s over for Trump. Without Texas no Republican can win the Presidency. As Texas turns purple you might start hearing Republicans saying they want to get rid of the electoral college because millions of Texans will vote Republican but won’t get any electors.
When they announce Texas for Biden, he wins. In 2016, 8 millions Texans voted. So far, 7 million Texans already voted. Extremely high turnout - I think Biden wins Texas and he wins the election on Election Day while other states are still counting votes.
I doubt he wins. If he wins, it will be close. If its close, there will be litigation and the Supreme Court will ultimately side with the republicans. I am sorry, I want Biden but we are far from a victory.
I wouldn't count on Gorsuch and Roberts siding with them just because. The other 4 are hopeless though, obviously.
Roberts is notoriously bad on voting rights, so I would...
I doubt the Supreme Court will reverse votes. There is no precedent for what you’re describing. What exactly are you suggesting they will do? Bush V Gore - Bush won and the Supreme Court stopped the recount. What you’re saying is that Texas announces Biden wins then the Supreme Court reverses that?
My understanding is that most of the Texas early vote is in person.
The RNC will likely try to claim fraud or that improper votes were cast. There may be "investigations". Barr may join. They may succeed in dragging things into December, at which point courts may rule on if some votes can be counted or not.
Anonymous
10/26/2020 11:41
Subject: Polls and Lols: A 2020 Master Thread
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Why are Texas and Georgia so close this time? Even Obama didn’t inspire such numbers. Are the polls simply off?
I’m not expert, but changing demographics. Obama was 8-12 years ago at this point. Plus a solid amount of republican trump defectors, and a growing national trend towards more independents. Just my guess.
An article this morning about Georgia said that a lot of the surge is a backlash by AA voters against GOP voter suppression. Stacy Abrams has been effective with this.