Let’s talk about herd immunity. I’ve listened to some people argue that the rapid spread of cases is a good thing, and we need to reach herd immunity in Mississippi and elsewhere to survive. I’m not a health care expert by any means, but I am a math guy. And I have thoughts:

The experts say we need 70-80% of the population to get COVID-19 to achieve herd immunity. Let’s assume they’re wrong (it’s certainly possible, they have been before.) Let’s assume they’re being way overly cautious and we actually only need 40% infection for herd immunity.

In Mississippi, our population is 3 million. We’ve had 36,680 cases so far.

We’d need 1.2 MILLION infections to achieve that hypothetical 40% threshold. (Remember, experts say it’s double that.)

Over the last two weeks, our hospital system has started to become stressed to the point of pain. We are seeing the early signs and effects of it becoming overwhelmed. We had to suspend elective surgeries again.

On our worst day of new cases, we had just over 1,000. It has typically been between 700-900 during this most aggressive time.

To get to 40% infections, we’d need 3,187 new cases every day for a full year from today.

We would need to TRIPLE our worst day—every day—for a year.

I’m not one of these guys that immediately dismisses any idea that challenges the expert status quo talking points. I’m pretty skeptical by nature. That’s healthy. But herd immunity is not anything like a realistic solution in the short or mid-term. I wish it was.

Unless you’re willing to go without hospitals after a car wreck or heart attack, we need a different approach. Right now, despite mixed messages at the beginning, it seems like masks are the best bet. They’re a hell of a lot better than widespread shut downs. Please wear one!

Anonymous wrote:According to the President, Obama and Biden just stopped the testing cold. THAT is the problem.

This is as bad as blaming Obama for golfing during Katrina.

Anonymous wrote:A virus does not now ethnicity or skin color. It knows 'i can attached to this and propagate'

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I am wondering if this has become a Hispanic bug.

The pandemic is out of control in countries such as Brazil, Mexico, Peru and Chile.

In the US the outbreaks are most severe in Miami, Texas, Arizona, and California -- all areas with a large Hispanic population.

South Africa, India, and Russia all say hello

Anonymous wrote:I am wondering if this has become a Hispanic bug.

The pandemic is out of control in countries such as Brazil, Mexico, Peru and Chile.

In the US the outbreaks are most severe in Miami, Texas, Arizona, and California -- all areas with a large Hispanic population.

Anonymous wrote:I am wondering if this has become a Hispanic bug.

The pandemic is out of control in countries such as Brazil, Mexico, Peru and Chile.

In the US the outbreaks are most severe in Miami, Texas, Arizona, and California -- all areas with a large Hispanic population.

Anonymous wrote:I am wondering if this has become a Hispanic bug.

The pandemic is out of control in countries such as Brazil, Mexico, Peru and Chile.

In the US the outbreaks are most severe in Miami, Texas, Arizona, and California -- all areas with a large Hispanic population.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Is there any data on Texas excess deaths? I find this a bit hard to believe because the official data suggests about 100 deaths a day which is way lower than the 2k a day NY was hitting.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Is there any data on Texas excess deaths? I find this a bit hard to believe because the official data suggests about 100 deaths a day which is way lower than the 2k a day NY was hitting.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Also, RE: that map ^^

For the most part, the states that were hardest hit earlier on will recover faster. The states hit hard *now* will continue to see their deaths go up. It really is a shame that so many states didn't learn from the mistakes as well as the solution (masks/social distancing) from the states that were hit early on.

That’s the real thumb in the eye, isn’t it? New York was flying blind in a lot of senses. Texas, Florida, etc. all had a path laid out for them but they felt they were too good for it, that it wouldn’t happen to them. Or maybe they just want to shrink their population cruelly? I don’t know.