Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So many people on this thread seem to think that people with any sort of concern are going to just pull their entire savings out of the market.

The question, to me, seems to be if you will hold onto more cash for a/ to use in a major long-term downturn or b/ to buy more stocks at the downturn. And, also how one might rebalance their portfolio to weather any storms.

I really think this thread is about the people suffering in this economy. You know the ones who don't have savings and so nothing in "the market." They don't have money to buy food a the supermarket add could not care less about the stock market. The top 1% owns 50% of the stock in the US. Most people in the bottom 50% own none.

So 50% of the people in this country can't buy food in the supermarket?

Never fear, they'll be able to frequent Comrade Mamdani's discount government grocery store. The government cheese will be on sale.

Anonymous wrote:

Okay, guess we’ll see who comes out ahead. I’m pretty sure I can see what’s coming and it’s not great. I’m going to move my 401k from 80% intenational stocks and 20% domestic into gold and bonds in a few months to be defensive. When the crash comes I will buy more mutual funds like VFIAX.

My taxable account is mostly gold miners and spot gold ETFs at this point. I’m holding for at least another 6 months. I have tech stocks ETFs in there too. Many are leveraged. I’m holding those for a couple more months. But with the gold I should be well positioned to sell that for stocks when they drop drastically in value.

I predict that will happen within two years. I don’t have a date for you. No one does. But clearly inflation is bad and so are THE REAL job numbers. Gold has been skyrocketing. Wall Street is now relying on alternate data sets (read the Wall Street journal article on that) to supplement traditional sources of info.

After all the coming rate cuts and the QE the outlook is pretty shtty.

Hope you won’t need your retirement money in the next 5 years because it will be half or less of what you invested.

Half or less of what you invested…. Over 20+ years the amount of money I have invested has easily doubled. Are you really predicting in 5 years that we will see a greater than 75% drop from where we are now?

I also think you are saying this drop won’t happen for a few years and the market will go up more from here but then there will be a downturn. So are we looking at 80-90% drop at that point? Is that what you are predicting?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I love the permabulls in here who seemingly can’t see what’s in front of their face. Jobs reports, inflation, it’s like it just doesn’t click with you. You think everything is great. at the same time I’ve learned so much about people recently and cognitive dissonance, blind faith and so forth. It’s ghastly and fascinating. You either don’t want to see it or you straight are silo’ed off from sources that are trying to show you.

Anyway, my only point is those folks who can’t just leave their money in the market in the next few years to see it continue to go up, which is inevitably always does, will be pretty fked if they don’t have social security to live on.

You really don't understand markets and economies, do you? And everything you accuse of others applies to you equally.

Yeah, sorry I can’t understand markets as well as you. Could you educate me how inflation, and job numbers being revised down or obfuscated, Fed members geting fired and loss of Fed independence, loss of farm exports, goods prices rising, consumer sentiment souring, or how Wall Street is using alternate data sources now to BLS reports to gauge market conditions is bullish? I mean maybe it is bullish for investors 10 years from now, who, post-crash, will inherit a rising stock market, if we are able to build back, and haven’t squandered all our good will and economic might…but really could you please lay out a case for tariffs and generally how you see things are right now as bullish. I’d really appreciate the lesson.

Anonymous wrote:So many people on this thread seem to think that people with any sort of concern are going to just pull their entire savings out of the market.

The question, to me, seems to be if you will hold onto more cash for a/ to use in a major long-term downturn or b/ to buy more stocks at the downturn. And, also how one might rebalance their portfolio to weather any storms.

I really think this thread is about the people suffering in this economy. You know the ones who don't have savings and so nothing in "the market." They don't have money to buy food a the supermarket add could not care less about the stock market. The top 1% owns 50% of the stock in the US. Most people in the bottom 50% own none.

Anonymous wrote:I love the permabulls in here who seemingly can’t see what’s in front of their face. Jobs reports, inflation, it’s like it just doesn’t click with you. You think everything is great. at the same time I’ve learned so much about people recently and cognitive dissonance, blind faith and so forth. It’s ghastly and fascinating. You either don’t want to see it or you straight are silo’ed off from sources that are trying to show you.

Anyway, my only point is those folks who can’t just leave their money in the market in the next few years to see it continue to go up, which is inevitably always does, will be pretty fked if they don’t have social security to live on.

You really don't understand markets and economies, do you? And everything you accuse of others applies to you equally.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I just shifted to 60% international stock funds.

With a weakening dollar, it seems like a safer choice.

I did, too, months ago. However, I’m fully cognizant that international stocks will take the same hit and drop down in value drastically in unison with the US.

I’m going to move into bonds after a while. After the rate cuts and QE that are coming in an attempt to prop up the market. We have market euphoria to go for a while. All the AI and tech and random stocks will pump, but the jobs numbers will keep coming out and inflation will keep rising and gold will continue to go up.

Anyway, keep telling me I’m wrong, but keep watching what’s happening. Hint. It’s not on Fox.

Fear porn is fascinating to watch.

-- not a Fox watcher.

Anonymous wrote:I just shifted to 60% international stock funds.

With a weakening dollar, it seems like a safer choice.

I did, too, months ago. However, I’m fully cognizant that international stocks will take the same hit and drop down in value drastically in unison with the US.

I’m going to move into bonds after a while. After the rate cuts and QE that are coming in an attempt to prop up the market. We have market euphoria to go for a while. All the AI and tech and random stocks will pump, but the jobs numbers will keep coming out and inflation will keep rising and gold will continue to go up.

Anyway, keep telling me I’m wrong, but keep watching what’s happening. Hint. It’s not on Fox.

I just shifted to 60% international stock funds.

With a weakening dollar, it seems like a safer choice.

I love the permabulls in here who seemingly can’t see what’s in front of their face. Jobs reports, inflation, it’s like it just doesn’t click with you. You think everything is great. at the same time I’ve learned so much about people recently and cognitive dissonance, blind faith and so forth. It’s ghastly and fascinating. You either don’t want to see it or you straight are silo’ed off from sources that are trying to show you.

Anyway, my only point is those folks who can’t just leave their money in the market in the next few years to see it continue to go up, which is inevitably always does, will be pretty fked if they don’t have social security to live on.

Anonymous wrote:

All these people saying the market crash is coming sold out of their equities in April and are trying to justify their idiotic decisions. You can’t time the market. You aren’t smart enough. Neither am I.


The market is currently irrational, acting as if everything is fine, while every indicator of a bubble is flashing red warning signs. I think people are trading on hype right now, there’s still
Money to be made short term but the new and revised (adp) job numbers (cause we no longer can get reliable BLS data) show significant slow down and the tariffs are having a growing an effect. Most likely recession and possibly a steep downward turn in market. Meanwhile we are bailing out argentina to bail out Rob Citrine and pay to play politics are the name of the game. Fascist corruption can continue to generate wealth for a while for some (authoritarian capitalism is a thing) but always at the greater expense and foundational stability is compromised.

+1 Read the history of Argentina for the last 100 years. Argentina was once stable, but has been dealing with fascist corruption for 100 years now and it has definitely been at the expense of foundational stability. Big mistake for Trump to lend them money. We won't get it back.

Trump pays for Argentina's healthcare but not ours.

So many people on this thread seem to think that people with any sort of concern are going to just pull their entire savings out of the market.

The question, to me, seems to be if you will hold onto more cash for a/ to use in a major long-term downturn or b/ to buy more stocks at the downturn. And, also how one might rebalance their portfolio to weather any storms.

I like to think a good analogy to the stock market is California real estate, which has defied all predictions for the last 30 years. It's overpriced, ridiculous, seemingly unsustainable, but yet for 30+ years it's kept going up with nothing more than the briefest of dips here and there. When you delve into the weeds, the reasons are quite clear, too much money chasing too few housing.

Same with the stocks. The stock market is predominantly propped up by the top 20% of Americans directly or indirectly via institutional investors. They don't know where else to park money. They really have limited options for putting money. And as such, the market keeps going up and up, with nothing more than temporary dips here and there.

And it has to be said the US economy is not in a bad place. It's slowing down and we can argue the continued growth in markets is exuberance out of sync with the economy, but it ignores that the stock market's economy is the top 20%, not the bottom 80% (just like California real estate).

Will markets drop every now and then? Sure. Absolutely. But trying to game for the next drop rather than focusing on the long run is like people trying to game the real estate market by waiting for prices to drop when it just keeps going up. And when prices do briefly drop they only missed on years of equity growth and still buying something more expensive than five years ago.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

All these people saying the market crash is coming sold out of their equities in April and are trying to justify their idiotic decisions. You can’t time the market. You aren’t smart enough. Neither am I.

The market is currently irrational, acting as if everything is fine, while every indicator of a bubble is flashing red warning signs. I think people are trading on hype right now, there’s still
Money to be made short term but the new and revised (adp) job numbers (cause we no longer can get reliable BLS data) show significant slow down and the tariffs are having a growing an effect. Most likely recession and possibly a steep downward turn in market. Meanwhile we are bailing out argentina to bail out Rob Citrine and pay to play politics are the name of the game. Fascist corruption can continue to generate wealth for a while for some (authoritarian capitalism is a thing) but always at the greater expense and foundational stability is compromised.

I would flip around what you said --- almost every indicator is not flashing red. Almost everything looks good. Slowing but looking good. Politics is shading people's views. And politics for the most part does not matter. Yes slowing but not really retreating either. Not stagnant. Tariffs have not had an impact yet almost at all. In my view they will not going forward. They are stupid, will not work, but are mostly harmless. We are bailing out Argentina to stable a region that may go bad -- not politics -- good policy. The rest of your comments show how you are impacted by the politics. Things are not booming now but they are fine and healthy.

What news sources are you reading to give you that perspective? Do you think employment numbers are good? How about inflation? How about the value of the dollar? Because most “mainsteam media”, which I am concerned you would denigrate, are underscoring that red lights are flashing. China isn’t buying soy beans. Auto loans are in bad shape. This isn’t about “politics clouding heads”, this is about reality. The stock market is on essentially a tech meth high at the moment. Once this data center/ai/hpc thing bursts in value and tariffs are felt more, we are looking at hard times.

I am trading companies like BITF, coreweave, lam research, intel as well. I am wrapped up in that bubble. But I am also not doing that for the long term in my taxable account. I am swing trading and stashing most profits in gold bullion ETFs waiting for the inevitable crash. I think you are secretly focused on politics and operate in a world where the coverage you’re reading is in fact biased in a bullish way. I think you’re insulated from actual conditions.

Employment numbers are steady after years of explosive growth. Inflation is slightly and only slightly high but low compared to the last several years. Dollar is doing what it does. Not an issue to focus on at the moment. Weak dollar can have benefits. Who cares about soy beans except a few farmers. That is not a major part of our economy. Auto loans are not in bad shape -- There is some pull back but again long before a flashing red light. I only read and watch mainstream media. But if you actually read what is there it is flash over substance. Substance is still solid. I am a democrat and oppose the president but the facts are the facts.

This is such cope. That or you just don’t read enough. Employment numbers were revised down to -3,000 from 54,000 last month. And they’ll keep getting revised down each quarter.

You should also be aware of this: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-27/trump-s-bls-firing-economy-spurs-investment-by-private-data-firms?embedded-checkout=true

I’m trying to help you buddy. You have this rosy outlook not supported by any real facts.

Yes and that is solid. Real facts are good. People who follow politics will get killed here. And no tarrifs have not impacted the economy in any meaningful way. No one cares about soybean farmers.

You don’t think the market cares about a $12.5 billion loss? Mmkay.

Also someone with no understanding of how farms work. Soybeans aren't solely grown by a small number of farmers. They are a rotation crop that many (most?) grain farmers in the midwest grow in order to rebalance nitrogen in their fields after corn (which strips nitrogen). Anyone who has been there in late summer/September would know this because you see corn and soybeans EVERYWHERE. It's also a disaster maybe for next year if enough farmers don't get paid to make their seed/equipment investments for the 2026 season. Maybe corn might jump in price for next years harvest because of reduced supply next year. Does "no one care" about corn farmers? In the United States?

The lack of basic understanding of how these systems work, and the consequences of these actions, are exactly why we are well and truly...you get it. But of course PP doesn't.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What’s happening is that the tarriffs are good for the US but no one will admit this in polite company. It’s why the market is up but no one will admit it.

Yes, that’s it. The tariffs help the economy.

No fool learn basic economics

And history

Tariffs are nothing but a tax on the consumer terrible negotiation and stupidity you go on and agree with the guy who has never once had a successful anything but running a koolaid filed cult

Anonymous wrote:What’s happening is that the tarriffs are good for the US but no one will admit this in polite company. It’s why the market is up but no one will admit it.

Yes, that’s it. The tariffs help the economy.