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Anonymous wrote:Explain to me how Trump will get more votes compared to 2020? His base is about 30%. He has to win suburbs in swing states. He is going to get women’s votes in the burbs. Seriously?

We keep hearing he is ahead in polls. Bad debate performance or not, it does not make sense. Especially considering the elections Ds won in 2023 and so far this year. R platforms are not popular!

Trump’s approval and disapproval ratings are slightly better than Biden’s. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

And this was before the debate.

Where you you see that his base is 30%?

I am not pro Trump but I am a realist. If Biden is the nominee the Democrats will lose.

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Anonymous wrote:It doesn't matter if Biden had a cold during the debate. All that matters is how he came across. Nixon was sick during his televised debate with JFK, and probably because of it, lost the election (just barely though).

The average American voters have no understanding of Politics 101. Perception is everything; reality matters sometimes. Maybe Biden is fit to serve until 2029.. maybe not but the perception too many swing voters have is clear and they perceive him to be unfit as it is now. Hopefully they perceive Trump as equally unfit so that Biden still has a fighting chance. It sure would be great if Biden got the out of the way so we wouldn't have to worry about a loss to Trump in November.

Who else would you run that would cause you to "not have to worry about a loss to Trump in November?"

Which alternate Dem would definitely beat him?

Any current Dem governor under the age of 65 and many of our current Dems in congress. We don't need someone that can beat an Obama or a Reagan; just an average candidate is all we need to beat Trump. Too much is at stake to risk running a very unpopular 81 year old with questionable mental fitness. There are few people Trump can beat. Why run one of them? All this being said; I realize this decision. Is completely up to Biden. Let's hope he does the right thing.

So you think Gavin Newsom would definitely beat Trump? There is no doubt in your mind?

Most of the alternate Dem candidates you allude to either have no national brand or come with serious flaws. Not saying they couldn't win, but the idea that any of them would be some type of lock is wishful thinking.

Newsom wouldn't win over any of the MAGA crowd but he wouldn't need to. Any rational swing voter would pick him over Trump and most swing voters are rational. Who would you pick between Trump and Newsom? If you say Trump, you'd say Trump against anyone. If you say Newsom, you are saying so for the same reasons most swing voters would say Newsom. Not rocket science for the sane people that will decide the election.

But part of the question is would a Newsome or Harris GOTV? Especially in the electoral college states.

MAGA is successful because it channels anger and grievance. No policy prescriptions. Just burn it all down. Just make Republicans righteous about their hatred of immigrants and lgbt and poc. Just spout fantasies about getting rid of taxes.

And then lie when nothing improves with zero consequences. Remember the Foxconn plant? Never got built. Never created jobs. And yet.

Relative to Biden, folks.... of course yhey would. Give the people what they want. They want viable alternatives. The GOP isn't giving that to them. We can win so easily if Joe does the right thing.

Pp here. As an independent I hope at least one party does the right thing. Either Biden drops out and the democrats have an open convention. Or Trump does and the republicans do. Imagine if the race were to be Harris vs Haley.

Haley would demolish Harris in the debates -- that'd be painful to watch.

More like the opposite. Harris is a former prosecutor.

... whose new public persona is that of a Jamaican pot smoker who loves word salads and attracts zero support, as we saw in the primaries last time.

Zero support?? Haley is not impressive at all.

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Anonymous wrote:Biden cannot win. This what so many Democrats do not seem to understand. He has already lost all of the swing states - Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan etc. And after the debate disaster, it has becoming a cascade - New Jersey, New Hampshire, Virginia, and so on.

There is no conceivable path for Biden to win the Electoral College. None. And when Biden loses, Democrats will most certainly lose the Senate and the House as well.

And yet Democrats are circling the wagons around Biden. Like, what could conceivably go wrong with a rapidly declining 82 year old geriatric that has been losing presidential runs for 40 years? Trump, unlike Biden, does have a large and enthusiastic base of support. Unless Biden is replaced with a younger, healthier candidate, Democrats are looking at catastrophic losses this Fall.

Ok, that still doesn’t answer my question. Trump doesn’t automatically win if he can’t get the votes in the suburbs.

And I don’t have the dismal view you do based on how Ds have performed in elections in 2023-24.

Can you share reports/polls that show that Biden is still ahead in the suburbs? This is one read that doesn’t share your positive view

https://whyy.org/articles/biden-trump-debate-philadelphia-suburbs-democrats-republicans-reactions/

This section at the end indicates to me that we have to start ringing some serious alarm bells!

“If you win Bucks County, you win Pennsylvania. If you win Pennsylvania, you become the president,” Worthington said. “So their strategy is to win Bucks County, keep the Southeast close, and he’ll become the president of the United States, guaranteed.”
Bucks County resident Cox said she and other Republican organizers have been working to register more people to vote Republican, and are a little over 500 registrations away from surpassing Democrats and flipping the county red.

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Anonymous wrote:Biden cannot win. This what so many Democrats do not seem to understand. He has already lost all of the swing states - Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan etc. And after the debate disaster, it has becoming a cascade - New Jersey, New Hampshire, Virginia, and so on.

There is no conceivable path for Biden to win the Electoral College. None. And when Biden loses, Democrats will most certainly lose the Senate and the House as well.

And yet Democrats are circling the wagons around Biden. Like, what could conceivably go wrong with a rapidly declining 82 year old geriatric that has been losing presidential runs for 40 years? Trump, unlike Biden, does have a large and enthusiastic base of support. Unless Biden is replaced with a younger, healthier candidate, Democrats are looking at catastrophic losses this Fall.

Ok, that still doesn’t answer my question. Trump doesn’t automatically win if he can’t get the votes in the suburbs.

And I don’t have the dismal view you do based on how Ds have performed in elections in 2023-24.

Anonymous wrote:Biden cannot win. This what so many Democrats do not seem to understand. He has already lost all of the swing states - Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan etc. And after the debate disaster, it has becoming a cascade - New Jersey, New Hampshire, Virginia, and so on.

There is no conceivable path for Biden to win the Electoral College. None. And when Biden loses, Democrats will most certainly lose the Senate and the House as well.

And yet Democrats are circling the wagons around Biden. Like, what could conceivably go wrong with a rapidly declining 82 year old geriatric that has been losing presidential runs for 40 years? Trump, unlike Biden, does have a large and enthusiastic base of support. Unless Biden is replaced with a younger, healthier candidate, Democrats are looking at catastrophic losses this Fall.

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Anonymous wrote:Didn't change my mind any. Tonight Biden came out and gave a strong and lucid rebuke of the SCOTUS immunity decision and sounded more coherent than Trump any day of the week.

People said he had a cold during the debate. Seems to me that's all it was.

Listen if you prefer a man obviously suffering from dementia, then just say so. But let’s stop the attempted gaslighting. Haven’t we all had enough of that?! Biden is mentally and physically unfit for the president today much less for the next four years.

The debate was a good night for Trump but I've seen many events where he seemed equally if not less incoherent then Biden was debate night. So I feel like I'm choosing between two mentally and physically unfit men. That being equal, I'm choosing the one who's been substantially less villainous.

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Anonymous wrote:Didn't change my mind any. Tonight Biden came out and gave a strong and lucid rebuke of the SCOTUS immunity decision and sounded more coherent than Trump any day of the week.

People said he had a cold during the debate. Seems to me that's all it was.

Listen if you prefer a man obviously suffering from dementia, then just say so. But let’s stop the attempted gaslighting. Haven’t we all had enough of that?! Biden is mentally and physically unfit for the president today much less for the next four years.

Anonymous wrote:Biden cannot win. This what so many Democrats do not seem to understand. He has already lost all of the swing states - Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan etc. And after the debate disaster, it has becoming a cascade - New Jersey, New Hampshire, Virginia, and so on.

There is no conceivable path for Biden to win the Electoral College. None. And when Biden loses, Democrats will most certainly lose the Senate and the House as well.

And yet Democrats are circling the wagons around Biden. Like, what could conceivably go wrong with a rapidly declining 82 year old geriatric that has been losing presidential runs for 40 years? Trump, unlike Biden, does have a large and enthusiastic base of support. Unless Biden is replaced with a younger, healthier candidate, Democrats are looking at catastrophic losses this Fall.

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Anonymous wrote:Explain to me how Trump will get more votes compared to 2020? His base is about 30%. He has to win suburbs in swing states. He is going to get women’s votes in the burbs. Seriously?

We keep hearing he is ahead in polls. Bad debate performance or not, it does not make sense. Especially considering the elections Ds won in 2023 and so far this year. R platforms are not popular!

Trump’s approval and disapproval ratings are slightly better than Biden’s. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

And this was before the debate.

Where you you see that his base is 30%?

I am not pro Trump but I am a realist. If Biden is the nominee the Democrats will lose.

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Anonymous wrote:Didn't change my mind any. Tonight Biden came out and gave a strong and lucid rebuke of the SCOTUS immunity decision and sounded more coherent than Trump any day of the week.

People said he had a cold during the debate. Seems to me that's all it was.

Listen if you prefer a man obviously suffering from dementia, then just say so. But let’s stop the attempted gaslighting. Haven’t we all had enough of that?! Biden is mentally and physically unfit for the president today much less for the next four years.

Unlike Biden, a man "suffering from obvious dementia" wouldn't be able to get the part right reading a speech off of a teleprompter and would get lost the minute he took his eyes off of the teleprompter.

That's not "gaslighting" - it's a fact. Just because you don't like hearing the inconvenient contradiction pointed out doesn't make it "gaslighting." Just because you want to post 35x a day about "Biden's dementia" and a lot of people don't buy it doesn't make it "gaslighting."

You could see his dementia in the debate. He would start off strong talking about abortion and then for some reason start talking about immigration. We all saw his ability wax and wane during the evening. Gaslighting is what the DNC and media were doing by suggesting videos showing Biden’s decline were cheap fakes and everything was fine and he is sharp as a tack.

Good points.

I was expecting Biden to go off-track late in the debate but he started doing so within the first ten minutes. He's in much worse shape than anyone thought, and that after a week resting and preparing.

Yes, the debate was a disaster, but Trump isn’t an option.

So the question is can Biden win? What’s his path to the electoral votes? He has already lost Michigan with his embrace of Israel. He is in trouble with New Hampshire (12 points down since Dec! That is a huge move). Hopefully more swing state polling is coming out it quickly. And hopefully he / his team listens to the polls.

Biden was certainly in trouble prior to the debate and I would have to think is now even more so with the independent/ swing voters (the only ones that matter).

Getting back to OP’s point I disagree that it’s a bad move by the media to question this. In fact, I think the only path to beating Trump is to question and evaluate and choose another horse if polling shows that Biden can’t do it.

The polling that shows Harris / others are not polling. Any better than he is is not relevant. They have yet to begun campaigning.

The key to beating Trump is to listen to what the swing state polls are telling us.

Anonymous wrote:Explain to me how Trump will get more votes compared to 2020? His base is about 30%. He has to win suburbs in swing states. He is going to get women’s votes in the burbs. Seriously?

We keep hearing he is ahead in polls. Bad debate performance or not, it does not make sense. Especially considering the elections Ds won in 2023 and so far this year. R platforms are not popular!