Anonymous wrote:Anyone else using this resource to track their numbers.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

For the states I’m following it seems accurate and more up to date than the cdc.

26,900 US cases this morning

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:More and more analyses will be coming out. Here is a much more robust and sober statistical analysis than the rudimentary exponential growth formulas that have been presented in this thread.

https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894

Well, it's true that my analysis is not as robust as paid articles in Medium by viral influencers rather than virologists, but there are better analyses out there that aren't from the media and are from actual experts.

Taken on the merits, that analysis is actually pretty good, but as far as I can tell from the existing data, we have not begun to flatten the curve and we aren't going to in the next two weeks. Well see. I stand by my projection for the next two weeks, but I'll let you know if I see any change in the trajectory that improves the situation.

Please share these better analyses from the experts. A lot of so called experts have already come out looking silly during this fiasco. Thanks!

His isn’t even A+. Lot of issues pointed out in the comments. But also lots of lame appeals to authority and emotion. His analysis should, however, at least give people pause to start asking questions about this hysteria.

Also, it looks like our daily new cases and daily new deaths have started to flatten out. Still early days but great news if the trend continues!

The numbers do not bear that out....

Check again. I’m not talking about the total, but daily new cases and deaths. We had 4,530 new cases March 19, went up to 5,594 new cases March 20 and then went back down to 4,824 new cases yesterday. We had 41 new deaths March 18, 57 on March 19, down to 49 on March 20 and down to 46 on March 21. These are good trends (if you can call them that lol) if sustained. Still early days, like I said.

1) numbers you are using are outdated
2) while there are micro trends, there are some places - Louisiana, Florida, Delaware etc where the spikes are just beginning. So we really won't know for another two weeks, and that is if things are more shut down then they have been.

Cherry Blossoms, Spring Break etc illustrate people are not social distancing and restart the clock, so the earliest I would look for anything meaningful is April 5th and even then, tack on another two weeks from there.

Anonymous wrote:The numbers on 1.3 acres are very different than your numbers, PP. Much worse.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:More and more analyses will be coming out. Here is a much more robust and sober statistical analysis than the rudimentary exponential growth formulas that have been presented in this thread.

https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894

Well, it's true that my analysis is not as robust as paid articles in Medium by viral influencers rather than virologists, but there are better analyses out there that aren't from the media and are from actual experts.

Taken on the merits, that analysis is actually pretty good, but as far as I can tell from the existing data, we have not begun to flatten the curve and we aren't going to in the next two weeks. Well see. I stand by my projection for the next two weeks, but I'll let you know if I see any change in the trajectory that improves the situation.

Please share these better analyses from the experts. A lot of so called experts have already come out looking silly during this fiasco. Thanks!

His isn’t even A+. Lot of issues pointed out in the comments. But also lots of lame appeals to authority and emotion. His analysis should, however, at least give people pause to start asking questions about this hysteria.

Also, it looks like our daily new cases and daily new deaths have started to flatten out. Still early days but great news if the trend continues!

The numbers do not bear that out....

Check again. I’m not talking about the total, but daily new cases and deaths. We had 4,530 new cases March 19, went up to 5,594 new cases March 20 and then went back down to 4,824 new cases yesterday. We had 41 new deaths March 18, 57 on March 19, down to 49 on March 20 and down to 46 on March 21. These are good trends (if you can call them that lol) if sustained. Still early days, like I said.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:More and more analyses will be coming out. Here is a much more robust and sober statistical analysis than the rudimentary exponential growth formulas that have been presented in this thread.

https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894

Well, it's true that my analysis is not as robust as paid articles in Medium by viral influencers rather than virologists, but there are better analyses out there that aren't from the media and are from actual experts.

Taken on the merits, that analysis is actually pretty good, but as far as I can tell from the existing data, we have not begun to flatten the curve and we aren't going to in the next two weeks. Well see. I stand by my projection for the next two weeks, but I'll let you know if I see any change in the trajectory that improves the situation.

Please share these better analyses from the experts. A lot of so called experts have already come out looking silly during this fiasco. Thanks!

His isn’t even A+. Lot of issues pointed out in the comments. But also lots of lame appeals to authority and emotion. His analysis should, however, at least give people pause to start asking questions about this hysteria.

Also, it looks like our daily new cases and daily new deaths have started to flatten out. Still early days but great news if the trend continues!

The numbers do not bear that out....

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:More and more analyses will be coming out. Here is a much more robust and sober statistical analysis than the rudimentary exponential growth formulas that have been presented in this thread.

https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894

Well, it's true that my analysis is not as robust as paid articles in Medium by viral influencers rather than virologists, but there are better analyses out there that aren't from the media and are from actual experts.

Taken on the merits, that analysis is actually pretty good, but as far as I can tell from the existing data, we have not begun to flatten the curve and we aren't going to in the next two weeks. Well see. I stand by my projection for the next two weeks, but I'll let you know if I see any change in the trajectory that improves the situation.

Please share these better analyses from the experts. A lot of so called experts have already come out looking silly during this fiasco. Thanks!

His isn’t even A+. Lot of issues pointed out in the comments. But also lots of lame appeals to authority and emotion. His analysis should, however, at least give people pause to start asking questions about this hysteria.

Also, it looks like our daily new cases and daily new deaths have started to flatten out. Still early days but great news if the trend continues!

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It’s going to go up ...because....more people are being tested now.


Thank you captain obvious.

In other news, water is wet.

Huh? No, the case fatality rate will actually go down as more people get tested. You clearly didn’t read. Total number of cases is a pretty useless vanity metric.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:More and more analyses will be coming out. Here is a much more robust and sober statistical analysis than the rudimentary exponential growth formulas that have been presented in this thread.

https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894

Well, it's true that my analysis is not as robust as paid articles in Medium by viral influencers rather than virologists, but there are better analyses out there that aren't from the media and are from actual experts.

Taken on the merits, that analysis is actually pretty good, but as far as I can tell from the existing data, we have not begun to flatten the curve and we aren't going to in the next two weeks. Well see. I stand by my projection for the next two weeks, but I'll let you know if I see any change in the trajectory that improves the situation.

Please share these better analyses from the experts. A lot of so called experts have already come out looking silly during this fiasco. Thanks!

His isn’t even A+. Lot of issues pointed out in the comments. But also lots of lame appeals to authority and emotion. His analysis should, however, at least give people pause to start asking questions about this hysteria.

Also, it looks like our daily new cases and daily new deaths have started to flatten out. Still early days but great news if the trend continues!

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:More and more analyses will be coming out. Here is a much more robust and sober statistical analysis than the rudimentary exponential growth formulas that have been presented in this thread.

https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894

Well, it's true that my analysis is not as robust as paid articles in Medium by viral influencers rather than virologists, but there are better analyses out there that aren't from the media and are from actual experts.

Taken on the merits, that analysis is actually pretty good, but as far as I can tell from the existing data, we have not begun to flatten the curve and we aren't going to in the next two weeks. Well see. I stand by my projection for the next two weeks, but I'll let you know if I see any change in the trajectory that improves the situation.

Please share these better analyses from the experts. A lot of so called experts have already come out looking silly during this fiasco. Thanks!

His isn’t even A+. Lot of issues pointed out in the comments. But also lots of lame appeals to authority and emotion. His analysis should, however, at least give people pause to start asking questions about this hysteria.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:More and more analyses will be coming out. Here is a much more robust and sober statistical analysis than the rudimentary exponential growth formulas that have been presented in this thread.

https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894

Well, it's true that my analysis is not as robust as paid articles in Medium by viral influencers rather than virologists, but there are better analyses out there that aren't from the media and are from actual experts.

Taken on the merits, that analysis is actually pretty good, but as far as I can tell from the existing data, we have not begun to flatten the curve and we aren't going to in the next two weeks. Well see. I stand by my projection for the next two weeks, but I'll let you know if I see any change in the trajectory that improves the situation.

Anonymous wrote:More and more analyses will be coming out. Here is a much more robust and sober statistical analysis than the rudimentary exponential growth formulas that have been presented in this thread.

https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894

Anonymous wrote:More and more analyses will be coming out. Here is a much more robust and sober statistical analysis than the rudimentary exponential growth formulas that have been presented in this thread.

https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894