Anonymous
Post 11/03/2024 09:37     Subject: Harris beating Trump in Iowa
Anonymous wrote:I think it is a toss up to either candidate and neither party should be confident at this point


Agree.
Anonymous
Post 11/03/2024 09:36     Subject: Harris beating Trump in Iowa
Anonymous wrote:It is possible Emerson poll is correct but Selzer has detected that Republicans are so confident they are not bothering to vote.

Nah. Republicans are good foot soldiers. They vote.
Anonymous
Post 11/03/2024 09:36     Subject: Re:Harris beating Trump in Iowa
Anonymous wrote:Yes, stake all your hope in this one poll even though the New York Times, USA Today, and Atlas have Trump winning in most of the swing states. Create an account on a betting site and go all in on Harris winning Iowa and every swing state because of one single poll. What could go wrong?

I don’t think anyone’s staking hope, I think we’re pointing out that all those other outfits have been herding like crazy (and I’m pretty sure Atlas is one of the garbage quality right wing polls).

Trumpers really do not want to grasp a hold of the possibility that 1/6 and Dobbs meant more to others than they meant to you. Having weathered 2016 as a Democrat, I would say that you should sit with the possibility that you are in the actual minority and that the election outcome will be devastating to you.
Anonymous
Post 11/03/2024 09:36     Subject: Harris beating Trump in Iowa
Anonymous wrote:The Democrats are so dumb. This poll will only make Iowan Republicans more energized to vote and progressives to think Kamala has it in the bag and therefore stay home.

I don’t believe the election is close. I think he’s going to win by a landslide


Not a chance. He may win. But it definitely won’t be a landslide for Trump. Maybe for Harris.

You can see that in the tails of the 538 model. The tail on Harris’ side of the histogram is much wider, showing scenarios where she sweeps over 400 ECVs. Trump’s curve is much steeper. There’s no chance of a landslide for him.
Anonymous
Post 11/03/2024 09:36     Subject: Harris beating Trump in Iowa
It is possible Emerson poll is correct but Selzer has detected that Republicans are so confident they are not bothering to vote.
Anonymous
Post 11/03/2024 09:34     Subject: Harris beating Trump in Iowa
Anonymous wrote:One of the most accurate pollsters in US history with a strong history of being right when everyone else is wrong.

She was the only one who found Trump was beating Clinton in 2016 and the one who said polls were way overestimating Biden in 2020. She also showed Obama was doing better than polls expected in the 2008 primary.


Can she never make a mistake or something? There’s always a first time for everybody
Anonymous
Post 11/03/2024 09:33     Subject: Harris beating Trump in Iowa
I think it is a toss up to either candidate and neither party should be confident at this point
Anonymous
Post 11/03/2024 09:32     Subject: Harris beating Trump in Iowa
The Democrats are so dumb. This poll will only make Iowan Republicans more energized to vote and progressives to think Kamala has it in the bag and therefore stay home.

I don’t believe the election is close. I think he’s going to win by a landslide
Anonymous
Post 11/03/2024 09:31     Subject: Harris beating Trump in Iowa
Possible that Harris and Trump teams received this information a couple days ago, not finalized but a summary while things were being checked, and that’s why it looks like the Trump campaign was freaking out earlier
Anonymous
Post 11/03/2024 09:31     Subject: Re:Harris beating Trump in Iowa
Anonymous
Post 11/03/2024 09:30     Subject: Harris beating Trump in Iowa
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Some people in here *really* can’t imagine that people don’t like their guy.

I have no idea what will happen. But I know:

- Reality will do her thing (she always does)

- if Reality doesn’t favor Trump he will challenge the results in court, and also through extrajudicial means, likely violent, bc he does not actually give af what the people want

- he will ask people with less power than he has to commit any acts of violence, and they will bear the consequences while he sh*ts on a gold toilet

- pre-election, casting doubt on any data that supports a Harris win is part of Team Trump’s strategy, so folks should be very wary of all the hE Is wINniNG bs


+1. If there is one thing Trump is good at, it’s bending the narrative to his will. He’s been so successful with it that the reality that Trump is not popular! has never broken through. He’s never won the popular vote and respected former members of his own party have a movement specifically focused on ousting him. Add the Dobbs effect in and things start looking a lot less certain.


This. Though he’s lost his touch. The anger is coming through now.

Would also agree with pp who noted that the various abortion bans have made it difficult to attract ob-gyns to those states. Even if you’re violently opposed to abortion, you want your female relatives to have good pregnancy health care. Childbirth is the most dangerous event most women go through, don’t want to go back to the 18th century and experience those death rates again.
Anonymous
Post 11/03/2024 09:30     Subject: Re:Harris beating Trump in Iowa
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Yes, stake all your hope in this one poll even though the New York Times, USA Today, and Atlas have Trump winning in most of the swing states. Create an account on a betting site and go all in on Harris winning Iowa and every swing state because of one single poll. What could go wrong?


No they don’t. Stop lying, especially those that can be debunked with a simple click of the mouse.

NYT’s own polls has her ahead in enough swing states to win the electoral college. Their poll tracker, in spite of being affected by R-leaning deluge of polls, has no candidate currently ahead enough to win the EC. Same on 538.com. The Post tracker, which only includes very high quality polls, has her narrowly and consistently ahead to win 270 EC. All the aggregators show some movement toward Harris in there last few days so there may be some shift happening. Whatever is happening is certainly not in the direction of Trump. But bottom line, it remains too close to call.


Please look at 538 it has swung back in Trump's direction over the last 2 days


See Nate Silver's post on herding
Anonymous
Post 11/03/2024 09:29     Subject: Re:Harris beating Trump in Iowa
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Yes, stake all your hope in this one poll even though the New York Times, USA Today, and Atlas have Trump winning in most of the swing states. Create an account on a betting site and go all in on Harris winning Iowa and every swing state because of one single poll. What could go wrong?


No they don’t. Stop lying, especially those that can be debunked with a simple click of the mouse.

NYT’s own polls has her ahead in enough swing states to win the electoral college. Their poll tracker, in spite of being affected by R-leaning deluge of polls, has no candidate currently ahead enough to win the EC. Same on 538.com. The Post tracker, which only includes very high quality polls, has her narrowly and consistently ahead to win 270 EC. All the aggregators show some movement toward Harris in there last few days so there may be some shift happening. Whatever is happening is certainly not in the direction of Trump. But bottom line, it remains too close to call.


Please look at 538 it has swung back in Trump's direction over the last 2 days
Anonymous
Post 11/03/2024 09:26     Subject: Re:Harris beating Trump in Iowa
Anonymous wrote:Yes, stake all your hope in this one poll even though the New York Times, USA Today, and Atlas have Trump winning in most of the swing states. Create an account on a betting site and go all in on Harris winning Iowa and every swing state because of one single poll. What could go wrong?


No they don’t. Stop lying, especially those that can be debunked with a simple click of the mouse.

NYT’s own polls has her ahead in enough swing states to win the electoral college. Their poll tracker, in spite of being affected by R-leaning deluge of polls, has no candidate currently ahead enough to win the EC. Same on 538.com. The Post tracker, which only includes very high quality polls, has her narrowly and consistently ahead to win 270 EC. All the aggregators show some movement toward Harris in there last few days so there may be some shift happening. Whatever is happening is certainly not in the direction of Trump. But bottom line, it remains too close to call.
Anonymous
Post 11/03/2024 09:23     Subject: Harris beating Trump in Iowa
Anonymous wrote:Some people in here *really* can’t imagine that people don’t like their guy.

I have no idea what will happen. But I know:

- Reality will do her thing (she always does)

- if Reality doesn’t favor Trump he will challenge the results in court, and also through extrajudicial means, likely violent, bc he does not actually give af what the people want

- he will ask people with less power than he has to commit any acts of violence, and they will bear the consequences while he sh*ts on a gold toilet

- pre-election, casting doubt on any data that supports a Harris win is part of Team Trump’s strategy, so folks should be very wary of all the hE Is wINniNG bs


+1. If there is one thing Trump is good at, it’s bending the narrative to his will. He’s been so successful with it that the reality that Trump is not popular! has never broken through. He’s never won the popular vote and respected former members of his own party have a movement specifically focused on ousting him. Add the Dobbs effect in and things start looking a lot less certain.