OP here. The Hechinger Report did a very thorough report on the
insane spike in DE numbers:
https://hechingerreport.org/proof-points-high-schoolers-account-for-nearly-1-out-of-every-5-community-college-students/
And guess what? Many of the concerns and motives I raised were borne out in the reporting.
First off, the rigor between DE and AP/IB is not the same. On the whole, there are major questions about the true rigor of DE and many kids turn to DE because they see it as easier than AP/IB:
Students are flocking to these courses because they perceive that it’s easier to earn college credits through dual enrollment than through Advanced Placement, said University of Iowa’s An. With Advanced Placement, students have to score high enough on an exam to earn college credit. With dual enrollment, a passing grade is sufficient.
The sharp growth in dual enrollment has raised a lot of questions about course content and whether students are really producing college-level work. John Fink, an expert in dual enrollment at the Community College Research Center, acknowledged that quality is uneven. That’s not surprising when 80 percent of high schools are now offering these courses and there’s decentralized oversight among thousands of colleges around the country. But colleges that oversee these courses are trying to improve quality, Fink said.
Additionally, community colleges make money on high school students at scale and high school students are filling seats that otherwise would go unfilled since the pool people who want to attend community colleges is shrinking:
colleges can turn dual enrollment programs into a modest money maker when they serve more students, according to a February 2023 analysis by the Community College Research Center. Once fixed costs are covered, each additional student means an increase in revenues. For example, adding an additional high school teacher to an existing instructor training program isn’t very costly and could open up dozens more student slots, each generating income that flows to the college.
The reason that dual enrollments have become such a big slice of community colleges’ offerings is not only because more high school students are taking these courses, but also because fewer traditional students want to attend community colleges. When the pandemic hit in 2020, there were shocking double digit drops in enrollment at community colleges. Dual enrollment classes at many high schools temporarily shut down too, but they dramatically rebounded in 2022-23. Meanwhile, traditional students haven’t been returning to community colleges in large numbers, thanks to a strong job market. High school students even make up the majority of students at 31 community colleges, my colleague Jon Marcus found.
In fairness to the DE proponents on here, DE does seem to keep kids who might otherwise not go on to college otherwise to stay the course. Ironically, it's not black and brown kids who that's working for, which was the main argument DE advocates were pushing:
research points to better outcomes for students. Between similar students with comparable grades and family backgrounds, the student who takes a dual enrollment class is more likely to graduate high school, enroll in college and earn a college degree, many studies have found. In 2017, the What Works Clearinghouse, a unit of the Department of Education that reviews education research, gave dual enrollment its stamp of approval with a strong level of evidence for it.
In qualitative research interviews, students described how dual enrollment courses taught them how to take notes or study for a test, helping them feel more prepared for college. Much of the benefit may be in boosting a student’s confidence and soft skills, and not necessarily in teaching academic content, University of Iowa’s An explained.
A big downside to dual enrollment is that students of color are underrepresented. That’s an ironic outcome given that advocates, including the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, pushed the expansion of these programs to help promote college going and attainment among Black and Hispanic students. Only one fifth of high schools have managed to enroll Black and Hispanic students in dual enrollment classes at the same or higher rates as white students, Fink said.