Anonymous wrote:It’s not just tariffs, but they will certainly be a factor in our crumbling economy. This whole ness will take at least a year to really see the impacts and years to unwind.
Here’s how I see things playing out, but we are only 3 steps into it, and the other 7 steps take longer to play out:
1. Moronic president starts a trade war and adds ~$300B of annual tariffs that get passed on via inflation
2. Foreign confidence falls in the US and the dollar drops which weakens US buying power and influence
3. Fascist president (whose name rhymes with Dump) starts cutting educational and government agency funding leading to layoffs
4. Corp Earnings weaken and US Companies begin layoffs and reduce capital spend
5. Given rising unemployment, the fed lower rates, but this further exacerbates inflation.
6. Unfortunately, US companies continue to produce overseas since it is less expensive than US manufacturing even with tariffs
7. US ends up in recession and the first stagflationary environment since the 70’s, but fascist president blames it all on his predecessor and another ex-president who last served a decade ago and is officially retired from politics.
Did I miss anything in describing our currently reality?
We are already at number 4. Hiring is down and layoffs are on the rise, especially in the tech and service sectors.
And 7 is being heavily foreshadowed in more and more articles on stagflation. One today in the NYT for example.
The invisible hand of the market is starting to pummel us, regardless of Donnie boy’s bluster.