Anonymous
11/10/2022 12:10
Subject: 2022 Senate Map
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:If AZ and NV remain blue will it depress enthusiasm for Warnock in the run-off?
It didn't in 2020/2021, why would it this year? Also, no Brian Kemp on the ballot to drive up R turnout.
2020 it was 50-49 R going into the runoff so that race literally decided control of the Senate. If AZ and NV both remain blue, that won't be the case (because of the PA flip). But, if Senate control is already a done deal, runoff turnout is going to be low anyhow and will probably depress Walker turnout far more.
Anonymous
11/10/2022 12:09
Subject: Re:2022 Senate Map
I hope there are enough sensible independents and Republicans in GA to deny Walker the seat. I'm pretty conservative, certainly no Democrat, but the idea of a US Senator Herschel Walker is just embarrassing.
Anonymous
11/10/2022 12:05
Subject: 2022 Senate Map
Anonymous wrote:If AZ and NV remain blue will it depress enthusiasm for Warnock in the run-off?
I don't think so. GA Republicans are divided between the Trump MAGAs and traditional conservatives. The traditional conservatives support Kemp and Raffensperger and have shown great support for them throughout the last two years and their ongoing battle against Trump. So, not all of the traditional conservatives are going to come out in a runoff to support the trump-backed and very defective candidate Walker. On the flip side the Democratic supporters for Warnock are going to be out in force. They are voters who are against the minority vote suppression and for women and minority rights, which Warnock champions. So the Warnock voters will be as devoted as they were all along, but the Walker voters will be diluted in a runoff. Many of them came out to vote for Kemp and Raffensperger and voted for Walker, but will not come out just to support Walker. Walker has lost a lot of coattail voters.
Anonymous
11/10/2022 12:04
Subject: 2022 Senate Map
Anonymous wrote:If AZ and NV remain blue will it depress enthusiasm for Warnock in the run-off?
It didn't in 2020/2021, why would it this year? Also, no Brian Kemp on the ballot to drive up R turnout.
Anonymous
11/10/2022 12:01
Subject: 2022 Senate Map
Anonymous wrote:If AZ and NV remain blue will it depress enthusiasm for Warnock in the run-off?
Nay. It'll depress enthusiasm for Walker in the run-off. Warnock voters will show up with bells on.
Anonymous
11/10/2022 12:01
Subject: 2022 Senate Map
Anonymous wrote:If AZ and NV remain blue will it depress enthusiasm for Warnock in the run-off?
More likely depress it for Walker since the GOP will have no chance to win the Senate.
Anonymous
11/10/2022 12:00
Subject: 2022 Senate Map
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:CCM closing the gap in Nevada, still 10s of thousands to count
CCM's deficit is down to about 15K votes. MSNBC says that there are still an estimated 165K votes to count. The majority of those are in Clark County (LV) and Washoe County (Reno), the two blue bastions in an otherwise red state. Those votes favor CCM. CCM is likely to hold her seat. Laxalt needed a much bigger turnout from the rural areas or to have made a bigger dent in the suburbs to have turned the seat.
I heard more like 60k in Clarke County. Hopefully it's enough to take her into the lead.
MSNBC says that Clarke County has processed 591,043 votes and is 86.3% complete. That implies that there are still roughly 93,827 votes unprocessed in Clarke County.
Washoe county reports that it has processed 146,044 votes and is 85.7% complete. That implies that there are still approximately 24,369 votes unprocessed in Washoe County.
Both of these are definitely blue leaning counties. With approximately 118K votes in those two counties and a total reported unprocessed of about 165K, there are only about 47K votes unprocessed in the rest of the state. CCM is likely to be reelected based on where the unprocessed votes are located.
Anonymous
11/10/2022 11:58
Subject: 2022 Senate Map
I just realized that even if it just stays 50-50, this is a big fat failure for Rick Scott, the Senator in charge of winning the GOP Senate seats this cycle. Early in it seemed like he was using his position to elevate his own profile and not those of his candidates. He’s the one that came out with the idiot tax everyone and get rid of Social Security and Medicare agenda. Yay.
Anonymous
11/10/2022 11:56
Subject: 2022 Senate Map
If AZ and NV remain blue will it depress enthusiasm for Warnock in the run-off?
Anonymous
11/10/2022 11:55
Subject: 2022 Senate Map
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:If nv and az stay blue, ga is an afterthought as the Dems will have hit 50
If nv flips, then the runoff is what determines senate control
I cannot believe walker is this close, though. There are a LOT of deeply stupid people out there
AZ is red. NV is blue. GA is the lynchpin again.
Not anymore. It used to be when John McCain was king of Arizona. Now, it is very purple. In the past, Tucson and Phoenix were the typical urban areas with Democratic voting, but the rest of the state was populous enough and red enough to keep it red. Now, Tucson and Phoenix have grown in population, especially the last few years as more people looked to move out of California. Arizona was the second most frequent destination to Texas. Additionally, Flagstaff has made Coconino County more blue. And the native American tribes in Apache County have always been Democratic supporters. The increase of Democratic voters in these four counties have leveled the state making it solidly purple. It is no longer a slam dunk for Republicans like it used to be, hence, why Hobbs and Kelly are leading their respective races and are likely to both win.
+1 Good summary. Trump turned the suburbs away from Republicans everywhere, including those around Phoenix and Tucson which used to be very Republican.
Anonymous
11/10/2022 11:51
Subject: Re:2022 Senate Map
Anonymous wrote:Based on this Manchin just got more powerful. Didn't know that was possible. Now both the Senate is beholden to him and the GOP House will do what he wants to get bills passed in the Senate.
If the Democrats win all three outstanding races (NV, AZ and GA), then they will have a 51-49 majority in the Senate. This actually decreases both Manchin's and Sinema's power. Now, neither one of them individually will be able to blockade the party. Now, they will have to work in tandem to block the party. Since they have different puppetmasters (Manchin is controlled by the big energy and Sinema is controlled by corporate masters), they may have competing interests and may not be able to agree on issues to block the Democrats. In the last 2 years, both had a lot of power to exact major concessions for their benefactors since either one could hold up bills for their personal earmarks (like Manchin blocking the recent Inflation Reduction Act to get a coal concession, which he ultimately had to give up). If the Democrats get to 51-49, then they will lose that ability to be a one-Senator block.
Anonymous
11/10/2022 11:50
Subject: 2022 Senate Map
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:CCM closing the gap in Nevada, still 10s of thousands to count
CCM's deficit is down to about 15K votes. MSNBC says that there are still an estimated 165K votes to count. The majority of those are in Clark County (LV) and Washoe County (Reno), the two blue bastions in an otherwise red state. Those votes favor CCM. CCM is likely to hold her seat. Laxalt needed a much bigger turnout from the rural areas or to have made a bigger dent in the suburbs to have turned the seat.
I heard more like 60k in Clarke County. Hopefully it's enough to take her into the lead.
Anonymous
11/10/2022 11:47
Subject: 2022 Senate Map
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:If nv and az stay blue, ga is an afterthought as the Dems will have hit 50
If nv flips, then the runoff is what determines senate control
I cannot believe walker is this close, though. There are a LOT of deeply stupid people out there
AZ is red. NV is blue. GA is the lynchpin again.
Not anymore. It used to be when John McCain was king of Arizona. Now, it is very purple. In the past, Tucson and Phoenix were the typical urban areas with Democratic voting, but the rest of the state was populous enough and red enough to keep it red. Now, Tucson and Phoenix have grown in population, especially the last few years as more people looked to move out of California. Arizona was the second most frequent destination to Texas. Additionally, Flagstaff has made Coconino County more blue. And the native American tribes in Apache County have always been Democratic supporters. The increase of Democratic voters in these four counties have leveled the state making it solidly purple. It is no longer a slam dunk for Republicans like it used to be, hence, why Hobbs and Kelly are leading their respective races and are likely to both win.
Anonymous
11/10/2022 11:37
Subject: 2022 Senate Map
Anonymous wrote:CCM closing the gap in Nevada, still 10s of thousands to count
CCM's deficit is down to about 15K votes. MSNBC says that there are still an estimated 165K votes to count. The majority of those are in Clark County (LV) and Washoe County (Reno), the two blue bastions in an otherwise red state. Those votes favor CCM. CCM is likely to hold her seat. Laxalt needed a much bigger turnout from the rural areas or to have made a bigger dent in the suburbs to have turned the seat.
Anonymous
11/10/2022 11:33
Subject: Re:2022 Senate Map
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Based on this Manchin just got more powerful. Didn't know that was possible. Now both the Senate is beholden to him and the GOP House will do what he wants to get bills passed in the Senate.
No. The House would be a bigger obstacle than the Senate and anything that the House passes would surely get some Republican votes in the Senate. In fact, there will be more bipartisanship in the Senate because Senate Republicans will not want to let House Republicans control their agenda. So Democratic Senators will work with the non-crazy Republicans in committees to create bipartisan or nonpartisan bills and then negotiate with the House. House Republicans are not going to be able to deliver 218 votes for anything bipartisan so House Democrats will have some influence as well. I worked for a House Democrat for 20 years and my boss had more influence when there was divided government than one party control. When President, House, and Senate are same party, that party’s Congress is pressured to shut up and rubber-stamp the White House agenda. When it’s divided, Congress has to work out the compromises and the President signs whatever can pass the House and Senate. You can’t do grandeous legislation, but you can pass reasonable appropriations bills and other necessary legislation if there are enough good-faith Republicans.
That’s great. None of the lunatic unicorn bills of 2021 is fabulous.
House Republicans will do 100 times more delusional shit than Democrats have ever done. And Trump is starting his campaign to keep attention on him. House Republicans are likely to shut down the government and force the Treasury to perform accounting gimmicks to avoid defaulting on US debt. They will have to fail catastrophically before they will cooperate even marginally. All the sane Republicans are gone or bullied into silence.