The US needs to test people in every corner of the country and isolate hot spots, which are likely to be most urban areas, but then drill down from there. Ultimately, there should be well over 100m tests deployed.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
As of March 19, 2020, 15:35 GMT, we have 10,767 cases and 160 deaths.

This is a massive failure by Trump.

This thread was started two days ago. Now we have 24,143 confirmed cases and 288 deaths.

Our hospitals can't handle this spike. We have been adding 5000 cases daily since this thread started. The death rate of 1.2%, though better than Italy and Spain's, is still 12 times of seasonal flu's. I am hoping we will see the curve flatten soon.

They've basically declared you can't get tested unless you're already on death's door. Why on earth would you trust the stats now?

Then these people getting tested must be infected with something other than coronavirus. In Virginia, as of today, 2790 people have been tested and only 152 have come back positive.

New York has tested about 50,000 and 10,000 positive. Nationally US has a positive rate of over 10%. So we are opening up testing, not just seriously ill. Worldwide the death rate is about 4%. We are at 1.2%. I have not seen any DATA to dispute these numbers.

Anonymous wrote:My cousin said that Italy is disaggregating data. In other words, they are keeping track of how each case is handled - how people die. Did they die from the virus or from complications stemming from the virus?

Apparently, the neighboring counties aren't as detailed. That's why Italy's numbers are so high.

A key distinction is dying FROM corona virus versus dying WITH corona virus. If someone otherwise dies but they happen to be tested when they die and have corona virus, should that count? I think Italy has been counting these cases whereas Germany has not.

My cousin said that Italy is disaggregating data. In other words, they are keeping track of how each case is handled - how people die. Did they die from the virus or from complications stemming from the virus?

Apparently, the neighboring counties aren't as detailed. That's why Italy's numbers are so high.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
As of March 19, 2020, 15:35 GMT, we have 10,767 cases and 160 deaths.

This is a massive failure by Trump.

This thread was started two days ago. Now we have 24,143 confirmed cases and 288 deaths.

Our hospitals can't handle this spike. We have been adding 5000 cases daily since this thread started. The death rate of 1.2%, though better than Italy and Spain's, is still 12 times of seasonal flu's. I am hoping we will see the curve flatten soon.

They've basically declared you can't get tested unless you're already on death's door. Why on earth would you trust the stats now?

Then these people getting tested must be infected with something other than coronavirus. In Virginia, as of today, 2790 people have been tested and only 152 have come back positive.

Anonymous wrote:It’s going to go up ...because....more people are being tested now.


Thank you captain obvious.

In other news, water is wet.

Huh? No, the case fatality rate will actually go down as more people get tested. You clearly didn’t read. Total number of cases is a pretty useless vanity metric.

It’s going to go up ...because....more people are being tested now.


Thank you captain obvious.

In other news, water is wet.

More and more analyses will be coming out. Here is a much more robust and sober statistical analysis than the rudimentary exponential growth formulas that have been presented in this thread.

https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
As of March 19, 2020, 15:35 GMT, we have 10,767 cases and 160 deaths.

This is a massive failure by Trump.

This thread was started two days ago. Now we have 24,143 confirmed cases and 288 deaths.

Our hospitals can't handle this spike. We have been adding 5000 cases daily since this thread started. The death rate of 1.2%, though better than Italy and Spain's, is still 12 times of seasonal flu's. I am hoping we will see the curve flatten soon.

They've basically declared you can't get tested unless you're already on death's door. Why on earth would you trust the stats now?

Studies show that recessions, including the worst great depression years of 1930 to 1933, counterintuitively are associated with declines in mortality and increases in life expectancy.

From a study:

"The evolution of population health during the years 1920–1940 confirms the counterintuitive hypothesis that, as in other historical periods and market economies, population health tends to evolve better during recessions than in expansions."

https://www.pnas.org/content/106/41/17290

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:As we test more, we will have more positives. I'm honestly not concerned about that; it's good to test more, and that number would be A LOT higher, were we actually testing people on a massive scale, like South Korea has. The number that concerns me more, is the number of deaths. We hit 100 on Tuesday, I believe. We've added 60 more in the subsequent 2 days, which is a bad trajectory to be on.

We are still not at South Korea, or Germany's level in testing. It is very concerning the jump in cases. Our test positive rate is at 10 - 11% which is high.

Both Germany and South Korea have handled this well. Both with testing and appreciate use of quarantine.

I also like that Germany told it's citizens early on most would get it kind of prevents panic.

Germany? A lot of thought that they are too late. This article was written March 17--around 6,000 cases. Today, three days later it has over 22,000 cases, a near quadrupling.

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/03/17/germany-pulls-out-the-bazooka-against-the-coronavirus-but-is-it-doing-enough/

And Germany is totally fudging its death count.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:In the U.S. for 2018, there were 48,344 recorded suicides, up from 42,773 in 2014, according to the CDC's National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS). On average, adjusted for age, the annual U.S. suicide rate increased 24% between 1999 and 2014, from 10.5 to 13.0 suicides per 100,000 people, the highest rate recorded in 28 years. I am sure we will surpass that this year due to this lock down and economic downturn.

Wow that seems kinda high.

Seems Kinda high??? You haven’t seen nothing yet. Virus has nothing on mental health. Not sure why government feels that tanking the economy just because they feel that people are a bunch of idiots and not able to take care of themselves through hygiene. But whatever.
https://time.com/5805526/coronavirus-economy-layoffs/

Consider the real numbers out of Wuhan. Worse than the opioid epidemic. And then remember that Wuhan is only one city.

Anonymous wrote:In the U.S. for 2018, there were 48,344 recorded suicides, up from 42,773 in 2014, according to the CDC's National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS). On average, adjusted for age, the annual U.S. suicide rate increased 24% between 1999 and 2014, from 10.5 to 13.0 suicides per 100,000 people, the highest rate recorded in 28 years. I am sure we will surpass that this year due to this lock down and economic downturn.

Thanks, Trump.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:In the U.S. for 2018, there were 48,344 recorded suicides, up from 42,773 in 2014, according to the CDC's National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS). On average, adjusted for age, the annual U.S. suicide rate increased 24% between 1999 and 2014, from 10.5 to 13.0 suicides per 100,000 people, the highest rate recorded in 28 years. I am sure we will surpass that this year due to this lock down and economic downturn.

Wow that seems kinda high.

Seems Kinda high??? You haven’t seen nothing yet. Virus has nothing on mental health. Not sure why government feels that tanking the economy just because they feel that people are a bunch of idiots and not able to take care of themselves through hygiene. But whatever.
https://time.com/5805526/coronavirus-economy-layoffs/

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
In Italy there are over 4000 suicide deaths, increase of 12% due to the economic downturn.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/suicide-in-italy-its-an-e_b_10597478

Thanks for sharing! This in the other side of the coin. Deaths that will happen as a result of economic downturn.

This article is from 2016/2017. Anything newer?

Probably will not know the final outcome until next year. It will be interesting to compare the numbers. News outlets would not dare report on this. Would have to dig deep to find the answer.

Thanks. True story.