Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I have a question. Prigozhin has been shit-talking Putin for weeks. People who don’t support Putin have a history of falling out of windows. Has Putin not killed Prigozhin because he can’t get to him, needs him for the Ukraine war, or would killing him make the other Russian military turn on him?

That was one of the big questions last night. Was Putin using Prigozhin to scapegoat Shoigu? It no longer appears so. The entire regime is a facade with an insta filter.

Huh? Who's the genius who came up with that one?

Prigozhin and Wagner has always been a liability, which is why they were placed in garden-spots like Syria and Africa, but they did the dirty work the military didn't want to do. And it was pretty obvious what was happening, so difficult for a good analyst to miss this one - Shoigu's ultimatum came in the form of trying to force Wagner to sign contracts.
https://www.politico.eu/article/wagner-boss-says-his-soldiers-wont-sign-contracts-with-russian-army/

There was a reason why Prigozhin was leaving Putin out of all of his criticisms.

There was a reason why Putin didn't make a statement or appearance until after Rostov was captured.

Putin had a chance to weasel out of it all by offering Shoigu up as a sacrificial offering.

lol. holy s*** looks like I was wrong!

Prigozhin didn't consolidate - he's half-way to Moscow!!!

"The seriousness of Yevgeny Prigozhin's intentions is evidenced by the capture of the next Russian city. Completely unimpeded, all military facilities and administrative buildings in Voronezh came under the control of Wagner PMC fighters."
https://myc.news/en/novosti_mira/armiya_prigozhina_bez_boya_zanyala_voronezh__

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I lived/studied/worked in Russia for many years so following the news closely. My own two cents is the regular Russian army and Russian people would have to turn against Putin before a real coup could occur. I don’t believe Prigozhin has the manpower to march to Moscow and take over the Kremlin. I also don’t see Putin’s government removing him. This will definitely affect the war in Ukraine.

The people don't have to turn against. They just have to abstain from defending. Which is what appears to be happening.

And Shoigu and Gerasimov as leaders, have not been very popular with Russia's military. They respect Prigozhin more than they do their own chiefs. Question is, will they still follow orders to stop him or not.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I have a question. Prigozhin has been shit-talking Putin for weeks. People who don’t support Putin have a history of falling out of windows. Has Putin not killed Prigozhin because he can’t get to him, needs him for the Ukraine war, or would killing him make the other Russian military turn on him?

That was one of the big questions last night. Was Putin using Prigozhin to scapegoat Shoigu? It no longer appears so. The entire regime is a facade with an insta filter.

Huh? Who's the genius who came up with that one?

Prigozhin and Wagner has always been a liability, which is why they were placed in garden-spots like Syria and Africa, but they did the dirty work the military didn't want to do. And it was pretty obvious what was happening, so difficult for a good analyst to miss this one - Shoigu's ultimatum came in the form of trying to force Wagner to sign contracts.
https://www.politico.eu/article/wagner-boss-says-his-soldiers-wont-sign-contracts-with-russian-army/

Anonymous wrote:Those of you hoping for a "coup" or regime change.......

Does it occur to you that regime change might make Russia even worse?
I think Putin is a dangerous dictator, but will people from the Wagner Group be better?

It depends. Was Kabila better than Mubutu? Or were they both shit sandwiches? Russia is Congo/Zaire. It may end up even more ethnic Russian nationalist and militaristic but without the territorial expansionist desires.

Wagner taking over rump Russia is worse for Africa. It's likely slightly better for the West and worse for China. It's benefit for Russian citizens is better in the short term vis a vis Ukraine but could be worse long term.

Anonymous wrote:Those of you hoping for a "coup" or regime change.......

Does it occur to you that regime change might make Russia even worse?
I think Putin is a dangerous dictator, but will people from the Wagner Group be better?

To clarify - I'm against the Russian Government but I do believe that within two years Russia can devolve into total anarchy (ex. warlord states or vassal areas falling under Chinese or other influence). If that happens, yes, there is a real danger of Russia losing control over it's nuclear arsenal. This is why NATO and OSCE must be prepared to offer assistance to any non-aggressive entity to help defend Russian nuclear weapons - no strings attached - until they get their act together again.

My fear, though, is the ultranationalist hardliners will reject such an offer and permit the Chinese Government to steal Russian intelligence, nuclear and hypersonic technologies.

Anonymous wrote:I have a question. Prigozhin has been shit-talking Putin for weeks. People who don’t support Putin have a history of falling out of windows. Has Putin not killed Prigozhin because he can’t get to him, needs him for the Ukraine war, or would killing him make the other Russian military turn on him?

That was one of the big questions last night. Was Putin using Prigozhin to scapegoat Shoigu? It no longer appears so. The entire regime is a facade with an insta filter.

Anonymous wrote:Here's a totally uninformed idea: The Wagner Group is for hire, right? Could the US have hired them to leave Ukraine and go start trouble in Russia?

Doubtful. Wagner group is unstable and idealistic, so too dangerous to recruit. Prigozhin considers himself a true Hero of the Republic. A patriot. I believe he genuinely sees himself as a 'true Russian' standing up against corruption within his own ranks.

Anonymous wrote:I lived/studied/worked in Russia for many years so following the news closely. My own two cents is the regular Russian army and Russian people would have to turn against Putin before a real coup could occur. I don’t believe Prigozhin has the manpower to march to Moscow and take over the Kremlin. I also don’t see Putin’s government removing him. This will definitely affect the war in Ukraine.

The people don't have to turn against. They just have to abstain from defending. Which is what appears to be happening.

Anonymous wrote:I have a question. Prigozhin has been shit-talking Putin for weeks. People who don’t support Putin have a history of falling out of windows. Has Putin not killed Prigozhin because he can’t get to him, needs him for the Ukraine war, or would killing him make the other Russian military turn on him?

30K thug bodyguards..

Anonymous wrote:I lived/studied/worked in Russia for many years so following the news closely. My own two cents is the regular Russian army and Russian people would have to turn against Putin before a real coup could occur. I don’t believe Prigozhin has the manpower to march to Moscow and take over the Kremlin. I also don’t see Putin’s government removing him. This will definitely affect the war in Ukraine.

You seem to be missing the point. You're thinking very black-and-white and very linearly when you use the word 'coup'. There are many shades of gray, my friend - and all are just as twisted and ugly.

Yes, the bulk of the Russian population will follow Putin, well - as long as he's around, like sheep. I don't think Wagner will march on the Kremlin, but where do you think Putin will get 30K troops from to dislodge Wagner? I think Wagner can consolidate a breakaway portion of Russia into a Warlord domain.

In the meantime, all the while, Putin's power weakens, the officials in the Kremlin are panicking, the RT propagandists are in confusion - and the sheep, being good sheep, will look at all of this in fear. Putin is their regular pension check. If it's difficult to make ends meet now, what will happen next?

I have a question. Prigozhin has been shit-talking Putin for weeks. People who don’t support Putin have a history of falling out of windows. Has Putin not killed Prigozhin because he can’t get to him, needs him for the Ukraine war, or would killing him make the other Russian military turn on him?

Here's a totally uninformed idea: The Wagner Group is for hire, right? Could the US have hired them to leave Ukraine and go start trouble in Russia?

Those of you hoping for a "coup" or regime change.......

Does it occur to you that regime change might make Russia even worse?
I think Putin is a dangerous dictator, but will people from the Wagner Group be better?

Anonymous wrote:I’m dumb, can someone put this all into context for me???

Russia has a mercenary group named after Hitler's favorite musician that was founded by a neo-Nazi.

That group was taken over by one of Putin's capos years ago and has been used by Moscow as an arm's length intervention force in Africa to control natural resources and is most famous for running a massive worldwide troll farm.

When the invasion of Ukraine initially failed that mercenary group was used as a way to avoid conscription and use undesirables, convicts, in the invasion. Tens of thousands of convicts were released from prison and pardoned if they survived. This mercenary group is notorious for its violent method of maintaining control, a sledgehammer to the head. Sledgehammers then became popular home decor items in Moscow.

Those convicts spent nine months attacking Bakhmut in waves of human meat. Many died but eventually they destroyed and seized Bakhmut. At which point they immediately announced that they were withdrawing.

The Russian Ministry of Defense then declared that they would have to sign contracts with the MoD. They did not want to do so. The MoD then odered a missile attack on the Russian mercenaries killing 2,000 at which point the mercenary group declared war on the Defense Minister and Army Chief of Staff. Last night 25,000 of them began marching on Moscow and captured Russia's 11th largest city without a fight. This morning, after not being heard from yesterday, Putin declared this treason.

The problem for Russia is that the mercenary group pays better and has been more successful, less corrupt, and less embarassingly incompetent than the Russian military. It is the most popular Russian group in Ukraine.

In short, it's an ultra right wing nationalist coup in Russia to possibly end the war in Ukraine.