Anonymous
11/06/2022 20:10
Subject: Re:2022 Senate Map
Anonymous wrote:
True but even if Democrats barely lose both the House and the Senate it will be a much better performance than Rs in 2018 or Ds in 2010/2014 or Rs in 2006 (2002 is the exception.)
To me, it's more similar to a ballgame. One point (or one more senator) is all it takes to be the winner.
Anonymous
11/06/2022 19:49
Subject: Re:2022 Senate Map
Well boo and way to rain on my parade!
Anonymous
11/06/2022 19:04
Subject: Re:2022 Senate Map
True but even if Democrats barely lose both the House and the Senate it will be a much better performance than Rs in 2018 or Ds in 2010/2014 or Rs in 2006 (2002 is the exception.)
jsteele
11/06/2022 18:56
Subject: Re:2022 Senate Map
Anonymous
11/06/2022 18:22
Subject: Re:2022 Senate Map
More likely “Wait, it went red? OMG, those Russians!!!
Anonymous
Anonymous
Anonymous
11/06/2022 12:40
Subject: Re:2022 Senate Map
I love the betting markets even though I don't bet. Most studies show they are better than polls at predicting winners and losers, in large part because bettors, unlike media pundits, have skin in the game.
Polls tend to be R or D biased. The betting markets deconstruct them down to the cross tabs and discount what they say in a way more casual viewers of polls do not have the time or experience for. A nice check on push polling. The betting markets also are far better at picking up intangibles that polls can't really capture like momentum.
So very sad that the CFTC has withdrawn its nonobjection letter for Predictit.
Polls tend to be R or D biased. The betting markets deconstruct them down to the cross tabs and discount what they say in a way more casual viewers of polls do not have the time or experience for. A nice check on push polling. The betting markets also are far better at picking up intangibles that polls can't really capture like momentum.
So very sad that the CFTC has withdrawn its nonobjection letter for Predictit.
Anonymous
11/06/2022 12:40
Subject: 2022 Senate Map
Anonymous wrote:NYT has report out today saying that Russian troll farms and bots have kicked into high gear again for the election.
I’ve often wondered how many of the troll farms are Russians or similar hired by Russia but living in the US.
Anonymous
11/06/2022 12:36
Subject: 2022 Senate Map
NYT has report out today saying that Russian troll farms and bots have kicked into high gear again for the election.
Anonymous
11/06/2022 12:29
Subject: 2022 Senate Map
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Are there any non-biased folk on here that can give me a fully non partisan guess with sound reasoning as to who will win? I’m an Italian and don’t care about American politics but I love gambling so I want to place some bets.
No, there’s no one without biases. Michael Moore famously correctly called 2016 for Trump and is saying it’s going to be a blue tsunami this year (in fairness, he thought Romney would win one other year, so…). The Simon Rosenberg guy who keeps getting posted and ignored by Republicans is showing data for who has voted so far and so far the Democrats have a 4 million vote lead. The polls say the GOP is going to win, but there have been a number of partisan push polls with small sample sizes. Certainly if you were to listen to the “mainstream” media (I do not know if you are an Italian in Italy or an Italian in the US), they clearly want the GOP to win.
In other words good luck on your betting, though as an American I’m not sure that I enjoy the idea of people betting for sport on whether or not my country will fall into fascism. You better than I know what it’s like to have that stain officially upon your country, but Black people and Native people in the US have definitely lived under fascist rule here.
I'm a French person living in the US, and I certainly would not bet on political outcomes - it feels unethical to play with results that will affect not just people living here, but also everyone else on the planet, given the outsize influence of the USA in the world.
I bought a Powerball ticket instead
Anonymous
11/06/2022 12:06
Subject: 2022 Senate Map
Anonymous wrote:Are there any non-biased folk on here that can give me a fully non partisan guess with sound reasoning as to who will win? I’m an Italian and don’t care about American politics but I love gambling so I want to place some bets.
No, there’s no one without biases. Michael Moore famously correctly called 2016 for Trump and is saying it’s going to be a blue tsunami this year (in fairness, he thought Romney would win one other year, so…). The Simon Rosenberg guy who keeps getting posted and ignored by Republicans is showing data for who has voted so far and so far the Democrats have a 4 million vote lead. The polls say the GOP is going to win, but there have been a number of partisan push polls with small sample sizes. Certainly if you were to listen to the “mainstream” media (I do not know if you are an Italian in Italy or an Italian in the US), they clearly want the GOP to win.
In other words good luck on your betting, though as an American I’m not sure that I enjoy the idea of people betting for sport on whether or not my country will fall into fascism. You better than I know what it’s like to have that stain officially upon your country, but Black people and Native people in the US have definitely lived under fascist rule here.
Anonymous
11/06/2022 10:56
Subject: 2022 Senate Map
Anonymous wrote:Are there any non-biased folk on here that can give me a fully non partisan guess with sound reasoning as to who will win? I’m an Italian and don’t care about American politics but I love gambling so I want to place some bets.
Congressional votes
Pretty sure bets: R House, R Senate; R or D on any leading Senate candidate in a non-toss up race (see: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/elections-map.html).
Reasonably sure bets: D Washington, D Colorado, R Wisconsin. A bit less sure but reasonable: R Nevada, R Arizona and R Georgia (all helped by strong R governor candidate).
Bets that could go either way: Pennsylvania, New Hampshire
Governor
Pretty sure bets: Any leading candidate in a non-toss up race (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/governor/elections-map.html). For toss-ups, D Minnesota, D Maine
Reasonably sure bets: D New Mexico, D Michigan, R Arizona, R Nevada. A bit less sure but reasonable: R Wisconsin, R Oklahoma
Bets that could go either way: New York, Oregon, Kansas
Anonymous
11/06/2022 10:37
Subject: 2022 Senate Map
Anonymous wrote:Are there any non-biased folk on here that can give me a fully non partisan guess with sound reasoning as to who will win? I’m an Italian and don’t care about American politics but I love gambling so I want to place some bets.
https://www.predictit.org/markets/17/US-Elections