Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My prediction! Put me down for 5 bucks on this outcome:

They will need the Coates kids to keep KAA from being too well-off. Floris will go to KAA. McNair will stay at Westfield and Westfield will just end up with 2300 or so kids instead of 27-2800. BRES will stay at CVHS to avoid overburdening Stone/Westfield with all the needy kids. No one gets threatening calls from Kathy Smith about Poplar Tree.

This keeps the fewest people from being unhappy and no one gets "downgraded".

The more people you move, the more drama. FCPS is conflict-avoidant.

That creates a new McNair island at Westfield. If they are going to create a new attendance island they need to throw out the entire boundary study.

Well, its not new because they were already zoned there. I think trying to build a demographically acceptable HS will likely result in some attendance islands. I don't think the SB's number 1 priority is logical boundaries. Its on the list, more around tenth priority.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Do they hate attendance islands more than they hate hordes of angry parents? Only time will tell. Stay tuned.

You don't think McNair families count?

Anonymous wrote:Do they hate attendance islands more than they hate hordes of angry parents? Only time will tell. Stay tuned.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don't understand, why is the suggestion that Poplar Tree be moved to Westfield so outlandish that it would sink a real estate deal? They are right next to each other on the map, and Westfield needs more students. It does look closer than a lot of areas that would still be going to Westfield.

What am I missing?

Distance.

Its closer in distance than other areas actually zoned to Westfield. Its closer than some of the Bull Run neighborhoods. If that's the only objection, its not valid.

Most of Bull Run neighborhoods are not very close to any high school. But, the largest part is equal distance to Centreville and Westfield. Not close to either.

The areas with the most kids are the Trinity apartments (yes, families double up) and Crofton Commons. CC is definitely much closer to CVHS. Trinity is several miles closer to CVHS.
I don't think Bull Run is any more obvious a choice than Poplar Tree. It makes sense to move them both, but neither one has a more compelling case to stay put than the other. And, pointing out, those BRES kids will also have to get on route 28 to get to Westfield, a transportation situation a previous poster found untenable for the Herndon kids.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My prediction! Put me down for 5 bucks on this outcome:

They will need the Coates kids to keep KAA from being too well-off. Floris will go to KAA. McNair will stay at Westfield and Westfield will just end up with 2300 or so kids instead of 27-2800. BRES will stay at CVHS to avoid overburdening Stone/Westfield with all the needy kids. No one gets threatening calls from Kathy Smith about Poplar Tree.

This keeps the fewest people from being unhappy and no one gets "downgraded".

The more people you move, the more drama. FCPS is conflict-avoidant.

That creates a new McNair island at Westfield. If they are going to create a new attendance island they need to throw out the entire boundary study.

Well, its not new because they were already zoned there. I think trying to build a demographically acceptable HS will likely result in some attendance islands. I don't think the SB's number 1 priority is logical boundaries. Its on the list, more around tenth priority.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Running the numbers, if Westfield lost Floris, Coates, and McNair while picking up all of Bull Run and Cub Run, its FARM rate would increase from 31.31% to 37%. It would also be less than 1900 students, so it would probably pick up more than just the remainder of Bull Run and Cub Run from Centreville and Chantilly.

If they also add in Poplar Tree, that would get their school back up into reasonable numbers territory (@400 more kids) and reduce overcrowding at CHS.

Moving Oak Hill will deal with the overcrowding at Chantilly, thanks.

Well, they won't need to move Oak Hill if they are moving Poplar Tree out.

Floris and Oak Hill are the two schools pretty much guaranteed to move to KAA.

you can’t have floris without coates and mcnair. it would leave them as an island for westfield.

i think it’s floris coates mcnair and oak hill

Agree 100% you don’t create a Westfield island but there’s always the theoretical possibility you move Coates or McNair elsewhere (Coates to Herndon, McNair to South Lakes). However that leaves KAA super wealthy if is Floris, Oak Hill, Fox Mill, and Crossfield, with maybe a bit of Navy, so unlikely.

South Lakes refused McNair in 2008. The PTA didn't want them. That boundary study was based on nothing but socioeconomic issues.
They won't send Coates to Herndon --they might consider McNair, but I doubt it.

It will be:
Coates
McNair
Floris
Oak Hill
Crossfield--if they can squeeze it in.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My prediction! Put me down for 5 bucks on this outcome:

They will need the Coates kids to keep KAA from being too well-off. Floris will go to KAA. McNair will stay at Westfield and Westfield will just end up with 2300 or so kids instead of 27-2800. BRES will stay at CVHS to avoid overburdening Stone/Westfield with all the needy kids. No one gets threatening calls from Kathy Smith about Poplar Tree.

This keeps the fewest people from being unhappy and no one gets "downgraded".

The more people you move, the more drama. FCPS is conflict-avoidant.

That creates a new McNair island at Westfield. If they are going to create a new attendance island they need to throw out the entire boundary study.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Running the numbers, if Westfield lost Floris, Coates, and McNair while picking up all of Bull Run and Cub Run, its FARM rate would increase from 31.31% to 37%. It would also be less than 1900 students, so it would probably pick up more than just the remainder of Bull Run and Cub Run from Centreville and Chantilly.

If they also add in Poplar Tree, that would get their school back up into reasonable numbers territory (@400 more kids) and reduce overcrowding at CHS.

Moving Oak Hill will deal with the overcrowding at Chantilly, thanks.

Well, they won't need to move Oak Hill if they are moving Poplar Tree out.

Floris and Oak Hill are the two schools pretty much guaranteed to move to KAA.

you can’t have floris without coates and mcnair. it would leave them as an island for westfield.

i think it’s floris coates mcnair and oak hill

Agree 100% you don’t create a Westfield island but there’s always the theoretical possibility you move Coates or McNair elsewhere (Coates to Herndon, McNair to South Lakes). However that leaves KAA super wealthy if is Floris, Oak Hill, Fox Mill, and Crossfield, with maybe a bit of Navy, so unlikely.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If you are trying to replace Mcnair/coates/floris, it makes sense to add Poplar Tree to Westfield since its contiguous boundaries but it doesn't sound like they can add a whole school to Stone, so then you would have misaligned middle school feeders.

Bull Run is contiguous to the current Westfield boundaries apart from the small island north of Centre Ridge. Poplar Tree is quite close to Chantilly.

Given Stone’s small size a split feeder MS may be inevitable.

Both Poplar Tree and Bull Run are equally "contiguous" to WFHS boundaries-meaning they are both somewhat related and somewhat unrelated.

There will need to be at least two schools added to Westfield to replace the schools who are likely to be zoned to KAA. Bull Run + Poplar Tree make the most sense as the 2 candidates. Poplar Tree is closer to Westfield than most of the Bull Run zone.

Sure, like they are just going to leave Chantilly with three feeders and a small piece of Navy.

All you’re doing with this type of suggestion is making a case to abandon the KAA purchase. Is that your goal?

Greenbriar East, Greenbriar West, Oak Hill, Part of Navy, Brookfield, Poplar Tree and Lees Corner all feed to Chantilly. The suggestion to move Poplar Tree leaves Chantilly with 5 1/2 feeders. What's the problem?

Oak Hill is right across the street from KAA.

It sounds like a lot of areas are right next to KAA. Everyone can't go there!

Is GBE, GBW, Brookfield, Lees Corner, and part of Navy not enough kids for CHS?

Suggest you go to maps and track the distance from Poplar Tree to Westfield and Poplar Tree to Chantilly.

Yes, its closer to CHS. So what? Its also one of the most logical choices to go to Westfield.

No. There are some schools that are not close to any high school. But, Poplar Tree is quite close to Chantilly and some of the neighborhood streets are VERY close.

That's not a logical argument. Poplar Tree is one of the closest ES to Westfield not actually zoned to Westfield. Westfield needs more kids. The distance to Chantilly isn't relevant.

Why not Lee's corner? They already go to Franklin, which sends kids to Westfield. It makes no sense to make Rocky Run a split feeder too. Plus, they are likely already on a bus.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Running the numbers, if Westfield lost Floris, Coates, and McNair while picking up all of Bull Run and Cub Run, its FARM rate would increase from 31.31% to 37%. It would also be less than 1900 students, so it would probably pick up more than just the remainder of Bull Run and Cub Run from Centreville and Chantilly.

If they also add in Poplar Tree, that would get their school back up into reasonable numbers territory (@400 more kids) and reduce overcrowding at CHS.

Moving Oak Hill will deal with the overcrowding at Chantilly, thanks.

Well, they won't need to move Oak Hill if they are moving Poplar Tree out.

Floris and Oak Hill are the two schools pretty much guaranteed to move to KAA.

you can’t have floris without coates and mcnair. it would leave them as an island for westfield.

i think it’s floris coates mcnair and oak hill

Agree 100% you don’t create a Westfield island but there’s always the theoretical possibility you move Coates or McNair elsewhere (Coates to Herndon, McNair to South Lakes). However that leaves KAA super wealthy if is Floris, Oak Hill, Fox Mill, and Crossfield, with maybe a bit of Navy, so unlikely.

Anonymous wrote:My prediction! Put me down for 5 bucks on this outcome:

They will need the Coates kids to keep KAA from being too well-off. Floris will go to KAA. McNair will stay at Westfield and Westfield will just end up with 2300 or so kids instead of 27-2800. BRES will stay at CVHS to avoid overburdening Stone/Westfield with all the needy kids. No one gets threatening calls from Kathy Smith about Poplar Tree.

This keeps the fewest people from being unhappy and no one gets "downgraded".

The more people you move, the more drama. FCPS is conflict-avoidant.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If you are trying to replace Mcnair/coates/floris, it makes sense to add Poplar Tree to Westfield since its contiguous boundaries but it doesn't sound like they can add a whole school to Stone, so then you would have misaligned middle school feeders.

Bull Run is contiguous to the current Westfield boundaries apart from the small island north of Centre Ridge. Poplar Tree is quite close to Chantilly.

Given Stone’s small size a split feeder MS may be inevitable.

Both Poplar Tree and Bull Run are equally "contiguous" to WFHS boundaries-meaning they are both somewhat related and somewhat unrelated.

There will need to be at least two schools added to Westfield to replace the schools who are likely to be zoned to KAA. Bull Run + Poplar Tree make the most sense as the 2 candidates. Poplar Tree is closer to Westfield than most of the Bull Run zone.

Sure, like they are just going to leave Chantilly with three feeders and a small piece of Navy.

All you’re doing with this type of suggestion is making a case to abandon the KAA purchase. Is that your goal?

Greenbriar East, Greenbriar West, Oak Hill, Part of Navy, Brookfield, Poplar Tree and Lees Corner all feed to Chantilly. The suggestion to move Poplar Tree leaves Chantilly with 5 1/2 feeders. What's the problem?

Oak Hill is right across the street from KAA.

It sounds like a lot of areas are right next to KAA. Everyone can't go there!

Is GBE, GBW, Brookfield, Lees Corner, and part of Navy not enough kids for CHS?

Suggest you go to maps and track the distance from Poplar Tree to Westfield and Poplar Tree to Chantilly.

Yes, its closer to CHS. So what? Its also one of the most logical choices to go to Westfield.

No. There are some schools that are not close to any high school. But, Poplar Tree is quite close to Chantilly and some of the neighborhood streets are VERY close.

That's not a logical argument. Poplar Tree is one of the closest ES to Westfield not actually zoned to Westfield. Westfield needs more kids. The distance to Chantilly isn't relevant.