There are people on here saying that dc metro market didn't drop during 08 b/c.. Just let people talk

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:"Moron" realtor here.

The high end of the market is always a leading indicator. People who buy $5M houses don't buy it thinking...what's my HHI...can I afford it etc. They buy it from an asset perspective, whether it's appreciation or capital preservation in mind. If THEY are not buying, it means...they think cash is better, or there are other investments that are better. i.e. Housing is NOT a good way preserve capital.

That throws the entire inflation argument out of the water. i.e. bubblicious markets are staring down the reality hole.

What are you seeing in that higher end of the market?

This is the big question. Do tell!

Anonymous wrote:"Moron" realtor here.

The high end of the market is always a leading indicator. People who buy $5M houses don't buy it thinking...what's my HHI...can I afford it etc. They buy it from an asset perspective, whether it's appreciation or capital preservation in mind. If THEY are not buying, it means...they think cash is better, or there are other investments that are better. i.e. Housing is NOT a good way preserve capital.

That throws the entire inflation argument out of the water. i.e. bubblicious markets are staring down the reality hole.

What are you seeing in that higher end of the market?

A 2% rise in interest rates will have a significant effect on the upper end of the market. More buyers can stomach the monthly payment for the $1.7M - $2M+ segment when interest rates are at 3% than when interest rates hit 5% within five years. This is not imminent, but it's coming.

Everyone thinks this is 2007. It's not. That bubble popped in such an extraordinary way because there were so many people who were not qualified to borrow taking ridiculous loans.

That resulted in a wave of foreclosures saturating the market and driving prices down. This will not happen.

In fact, we have the opposite. We have extremely well qualified borrowers competing for low demand. In the next 2 years, those borrowers will not default on their loans; there will be no wave of foreclosures which "pops the bubble"

The market will cool. We all know it will. But it won't pop. Anyone sitting on the sideline hoping for 20-25% price reductions better get cozy

Fed tapering MBS purchases should definitely have a cooling effect - I don't think they would think twice about stepping back in if there was a serious disruption, however.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Those are some pretty high price points. Can you run a similar price reduction report for 550-1.2?

Excellent question. Yes, I would like to see price drop for 300 to 700K. I dont think that you will find many.

In which market? In the DC metro area 300K will buy you a garage...maybe with a bedroom attached.

I think vast majority of folks are way too young to see a Bubble popping. Even 2008 was not a huge pop.

Last one I recall was the NYC Coop bubble pop on apartment to coop conversions financed by Savings and Loans.

I bought my first Coop from RTC, Resolution Trust Company. My coop sponsor went bankrupt and bank that lend they money went bankrupt and they auctioned off units.

My unit I paid $27,000 in 1991 was fully renovated and in 1989 was selling $105,000. My building prices fell 75 percent down in 24 months!!!

It was only a one bedroom no parking spot. Today it sells $350k. I sold over 20 years ago. That’s a pop. This will be barely a hiss when slows.

"Moron" realtor here.

The high end of the market is always a leading indicator. People who buy $5M houses don't buy it thinking...what's my HHI...can I afford it etc. They buy it from an asset perspective, whether it's appreciation or capital preservation in mind. If THEY are not buying, it means...they think cash is better, or there are other investments that are better. i.e. Housing is NOT a good way preserve capital.

That throws the entire inflation argument out of the water. i.e. bubblicious markets are staring down the reality hole.

Anonymous wrote:I WISH the bubble would pop in Del Ray (22301 - 22305) !! These places still are going pretty fast and for way too much.

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I WISH the bubble would pop in Del Ray (22301 - 22305) !! These places still are going pretty fast and for way too much.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It slows. It dips and it the bubble deflates. A burst doesn't have to be a dramatic bust to be a bubble bursting.

And no, never in the history of real estate have we had a surge/market frenzy and then prices stabilize at the same level. They always go down with a market correction. If you can afford what you bought and are staying for a long time, you are fine.

Yes, it does. A softening is not a bursting. It wasn’t a bubble so there won’t be a burst.

Whatever makes you sleep at night. Give it 3-4 months.

I don’t care at all. I bought several years ago. I just have a functioning brain.

Anonymous wrote:Did a Redfin search for Ashburn (ex-urbs). New home construction prices are insane, like $1.3m+ for 4,000 sq ft.

Nothing under $1m on the market for longer than 1 week. There are a couple of $1.5m+ white elephants sticking around for 2-3 weeks though.

It costs like $800k at least to build that large a home.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It slows. It dips and it the bubble deflates. A burst doesn't have to be a dramatic bust to be a bubble bursting.

And no, never in the history of real estate have we had a surge/market frenzy and then prices stabilize at the same level. They always go down with a market correction. If you can afford what you bought and are staying for a long time, you are fine.

Yes, it does. A softening is not a bursting. It wasn’t a bubble so there won’t be a burst.

Whatever makes you sleep at night. Give it 3-4 months.

Did a Redfin search for Ashburn (ex-urbs). New home construction prices are insane, like $1.3m+ for 4,000 sq ft.

Nothing under $1m on the market for longer than 1 week. There are a couple of $1.5m+ white elephants sticking around for 2-3 weeks though.