Anonymous
07/10/2020 14:39
Subject: Re:This is a blue state bug (for now at least)
LIC is as blue as it gets: https://gothamist.com/arts-entertainment/profundo-ravel-covid-test-rooftop-pandemic-pool-parties-rage-lic
Anonymous
07/10/2020 10:50
Subject: This is a blue state bug (for now at least)
Anonymous wrote:The virus does care about your politics - to the extent if you have an incompetent Republican governor more interested in pleasing Trump than sound government, your death rates are going to go up up up up up
Yep. They're starting to go up now. It's easy to track the deaths on Worldometers. Since the deaths are reported in weekly cycles, compare day 1 of this cycle to day 1 of previous cycles, to see if we're improving or not. We had been improving, but this is the first cycle in quite a while where we've gone backwards.
We're on day 7 of this cycle. Compared to the last one:
Day 1: 285 last time; 265 this time
Day 2: 366; 262
Day 3: 727; 378
Day 4: 676; 993
Day 5: 687; 890
Day 6: 626; 960
So as you can see, the increases started in the middle of this cycle. If you overlay a 7-day moving average onto the graph, you can see how we're reversing a steady decline that had been happening since late April. It's pretty much all due to Texas, Florida, and Arizona, although California and New Jersey are starting to see worrying increases.
Anonymous
07/10/2020 10:12
Subject: This is a blue state bug (for now at least)
The virus does care about your politics - to the extent if you have an incompetent Republican governor more interested in pleasing Trump than sound government, your death rates are going to go up up up up up
Anonymous
07/04/2020 16:33
Subject: This is a blue state bug (for now at least)
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:If you look around the US, where are the deaths?
Let's look at the top 20 states in terms of deaths per 100k people.
LA, MI, PA. IN, GA, and MS.
Infection rates?
LA, MI, PA, SD, GA, IN, and MS.
Now maybe the governors of TN/SC/GA/FL opening too soon might lead to more outbreaks like the one around Albany NY or Rapid City SD, but as of now? It's the red states doing better on average.
TX is barely getting hit, with an infection rate 1/4 that of the national average and a death rate 1/10th the national average.
FL? Infection rate about half and a death rate about a third.
GA? Infection rate about two-thirds and a death rate about half.
What will the rejoinder be if TN, FL, GA, and SC re-open without massive amounts of illness and death by the end of May?
I mean I'm smart enough to realize it's the 2nd or 3rd inning of a 9 inning game, but come on, facts are facts right now. The red states are just doing better now.
I'm tired of hearing what a great job Governor Cuomo is doing. From where I can see it, he's presiding over infection rates TWICE that of Lombardy, and death rates that are approaching Lombardy. THAT's the model of our response right now?
I'd rather hear from Inslee, Newsome, or Brown (Oregon Gov). They seem to, well, actually be succeeding. The Northeast - and I include Maryland in this - needs to just stop telling red states what to do. They've failed to stop the virus, and to stop the deaths. Maybe the governors of MN or NM, too, they seem to be leading a decent blue state response to this virus.
This virus isn't some liberal avenger, punishing the dumb Trumpies for their dumb choices.
Either from density or from dumb luck, the blue states are getting slammed and the red states getting spared.
If it's density, maybe density isn't the solution to all our problems.
This did not age well.
I'm the OP and I admitted as such a couple weeks ago. CA has lost control in LA it seems, WA is making a "comeback", and OR is having problems.
MN and NM still seem to be doing OK.
I'm going to take a guess based on past data. Basically the folks who died 6/16-7/1 probably got sick 5/26-6/10 or the such. I'm guessing a week or so to show symptoms and then a couple weeks lingering until death (and of course not all survivors are created equally.)
Yes, it’s roughly one week from exposure to sickness, and then if you are unlucky enough to to one to become very sick, it’s another two weeks before you need the hospital, then it can be a few more days before death occurs (again if you’re that unlucky person). There’s a real lag time, and one of the problems is that people aren’t getting their tests very quickly. If they take a test and are positive but don’t know it and don’t distance/mask, they’re just out there spreading the virus.
And the numbers really don’t look great
Anonymous
07/04/2020 16:03
Subject: This is a blue state bug (for now at least)
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:The virus doesn't care about your politics. It spreads in places with high population density or places where there are large gatherings and people not wearing masks. Correlates highly with places with open restaurants and bars
The virus doesn't care about your politics, but your politics +/or that of those around you may determine your encounter with the virus.
And I'm finding out who are MAGAs because they are the people who refuse to wear masks. I refuse to deal with or buy from anyone who is not wearing a mask in public.
Anonymous
07/04/2020 14:42
Subject: This is a blue state bug (for now at least)
Anonymous wrote:The virus doesn't care about your politics. It spreads in places with high population density or places where there are large gatherings and people not wearing masks. Correlates highly with places with open restaurants and bars
The virus doesn't care about your politics, but your politics +/or that of those around you may determine your encounter with the virus.
Anonymous
07/04/2020 12:28
Subject: This is a blue state bug (for now at least)
The virus doesn't care about your politics. It spreads in places with high population density or places where there are large gatherings and people not wearing masks. Correlates highly with places with open restaurants and bars
Anonymous
07/04/2020 12:18
Subject: Re:This is a blue state bug (for now at least)
Anonymous
07/02/2020 10:13
Subject: This is a blue state bug (for now at least)
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:If you look around the US, where are the deaths?
Let's look at the top 20 states in terms of deaths per 100k people.
LA, MI, PA. IN, GA, and MS.
Infection rates?
LA, MI, PA, SD, GA, IN, and MS.
Now maybe the governors of TN/SC/GA/FL opening too soon might lead to more outbreaks like the one around Albany NY or Rapid City SD, but as of now? It's the red states doing better on average.
TX is barely getting hit, with an infection rate 1/4 that of the national average and a death rate 1/10th the national average.
FL? Infection rate about half and a death rate about a third.
GA? Infection rate about two-thirds and a death rate about half.
What will the rejoinder be if TN, FL, GA, and SC re-open without massive amounts of illness and death by the end of May?
I mean I'm smart enough to realize it's the 2nd or 3rd inning of a 9 inning game, but come on, facts are facts right now. The red states are just doing better now.
I'm tired of hearing what a great job Governor Cuomo is doing. From where I can see it, he's presiding over infection rates TWICE that of Lombardy, and death rates that are approaching Lombardy. THAT's the model of our response right now?
I'd rather hear from Inslee, Newsome, or Brown (Oregon Gov). They seem to, well, actually be succeeding. The Northeast - and I include Maryland in this - needs to just stop telling red states what to do. They've failed to stop the virus, and to stop the deaths. Maybe the governors of MN or NM, too, they seem to be leading a decent blue state response to this virus.
This virus isn't some liberal avenger, punishing the dumb Trumpies for their dumb choices.
Either from density or from dumb luck, the blue states are getting slammed and the red states getting spared.
If it's density, maybe density isn't the solution to all our problems.
This did not age well.
I'm the OP and I admitted as such a couple weeks ago. CA has lost control in LA it seems, WA is making a "comeback", and OR is having problems.
MN and NM still seem to be doing OK.
I'm going to take a guess based on past data. Basically the folks who died 6/16-7/1 probably got sick 5/26-6/10 or the such. I'm guessing a week or so to show symptoms and then a couple weeks lingering until death (and of course not all survivors are created equally.)
Anonymous
07/02/2020 01:19
Subject: Re:This is a blue state bug (for now at least)
Anonymous wrote:So predictable. When this started, most Americans and media were alarmed. Then when it became clear the virus hit Black and Brown communities at a much higher rate (meaning it didn't impact whites as much) we got the armed “Open Up” militias. Now that it’s hitting red states, Rs are like, “wear a mask.”
+1. As someone said on another thread, certain people think they are too white and too special to get COVID. I see it in my own wider social circle (people posting pics of fairly large gatherings with friends on social media, staying at crowded hotels in SC, etc.).
Anonymous
07/01/2020 23:59
Subject: This is a blue state bug (for now at least)
Anonymous wrote:If you look around the US, where are the deaths?
Let's look at the top 20 states in terms of deaths per 100k people.
LA, MI, PA. IN, GA, and MS.
Infection rates?
LA, MI, PA, SD, GA, IN, and MS.
Now maybe the governors of TN/SC/GA/FL opening too soon might lead to more outbreaks like the one around Albany NY or Rapid City SD, but as of now? It's the red states doing better on average.
TX is barely getting hit, with an infection rate 1/4 that of the national average and a death rate 1/10th the national average.
FL? Infection rate about half and a death rate about a third.
GA? Infection rate about two-thirds and a death rate about half.
What will the rejoinder be if TN, FL, GA, and SC re-open without massive amounts of illness and death by the end of May?
I mean I'm smart enough to realize it's the 2nd or 3rd inning of a 9 inning game, but come on, facts are facts right now. The red states are just doing better now.
I'm tired of hearing what a great job Governor Cuomo is doing. From where I can see it, he's presiding over infection rates TWICE that of Lombardy, and death rates that are approaching Lombardy. THAT's the model of our response right now?
I'd rather hear from Inslee, Newsome, or Brown (Oregon Gov). They seem to, well, actually be succeeding. The Northeast - and I include Maryland in this - needs to just stop telling red states what to do. They've failed to stop the virus, and to stop the deaths. Maybe the governors of MN or NM, too, they seem to be leading a decent blue state response to this virus.
This virus isn't some liberal avenger, punishing the dumb Trumpies for their dumb choices.
Either from density or from dumb luck, the blue states are getting slammed and the red states getting spared.
If it's density, maybe density isn't the solution to all our problems.
This did not age well.