Anonymous
Post 05/12/2026 16:24     Subject: Lottery Nerd - Waitlist predictions

Not sure if you are curious about updates, but we got off the wait-list last week!

Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Would love your prediction:

Chisholm for pk3, #5, no preferences. I know it's normally a long shot, but wondering if you think the swing space changes it up at all!


LN here.

I'm assuming English Dominant?

Ordinarily, I wouldn't say a long shot, closer to a coin flip. You would have gotten in 2 out of the past 5 years.

But yes, with a swing space, your chances go up. I think a bit less in PK3 than in other grades, as they've still only offering X seats, and presumably people knew about the swing space when they applied. The upper grades tend to let more in kids off the waitlists because they lose more current students than usual to attrition. So, for example, Brent saw lots of kids coming off the waitlist in upper grades last year, but their PK3 waitlist still didn't move.

So yeah, I'd call it a coin flip. Maybe a little less.
Anonymous
Post 05/12/2026 13:57     Subject: Re:Lottery Nerd - Waitlist predictions

7th grade
Latin Cooper : #38
Hardy : #25
Anonymous
Post 05/06/2026 23:04     Subject: Lottery Nerd - Waitlist predictions

I know at least one who got a spot off the waitlist
Anonymous
Post 05/06/2026 10:39     Subject: Lottery Nerd - Waitlist predictions

Anonymous wrote:Has anyone on the Walls waitlist been called yet?


I got a call from the school on Monday to ask our status. (We declined our spot but I had lost track of the dates and forgotten to notify them.) Sounds like they’re working on verifying their lists so if not yet then I would imagine soon! I also heard thirdhand about an initially waitlisted acquaintance being offered a spot a few weeks ago (late April) but can’t 100% confirm if that’s true.
Anonymous
Post 05/06/2026 07:37     Subject: Lottery Nerd - Waitlist predictions

Has anyone on the Walls waitlist been called yet?
Anonymous
Post 05/05/2026 22:43     Subject: Lottery Nerd - Waitlist predictions

Anonymous wrote:If someone gets offered a waitlist spot, how long do they have to decide? When does it expire?


The school gets to set how long. It's often a week at first but later in August or after the school year starts, 2-3 days.
Anonymous
Post 05/05/2026 22:38     Subject: Lottery Nerd - Waitlist predictions

If someone gets offered a waitlist spot, how long do they have to decide? When does it expire?
Anonymous
Post 05/05/2026 18:26     Subject: Lottery Nerd - Waitlist predictions

Anonymous wrote:I feel like this myth about suburban schools blowing anything out of the water is kept alive by families who moved to suburbs because they couldn't afford living in the city anymore, to make themselves feel better that they moved.
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This is truth because unless everyone can suddenly afford a 650k to million dollar home in MoCo, Fairfax Co or Arlington, lets be serious here lol. Some of it is a true gamble and this is someone who lives in the burbs. It's a different set of problems.


I agree that the grass is greener narrative is perpetuated by those who decamped. I gotta ask - where the heck are you going to find anything in DC for 650-1m in DC?
Anonymous
Post 05/05/2026 17:30     Subject: Lottery Nerd - Waitlist predictions

Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:How far into the waitlist will School Without Walls go, do you think?


Based on intel coming from my son's 8th grade friends I think Walls may end up going deeper than prior years. Surprising number of kids turned it down.


The question though is whether they over admitted to accommodate the people turning offers down.


I'm PP you're replying to. You're not getting it. Certainly schools use yield management assuming some percent turn down offers. What I said was that anecdotal evidence tells me the rejection rate may be higher than modeled for.

How big is your sample size? Anecdotally, all of my 8th grader's friends who got into Walls are attending. I think it's hard to generalize from a small group of kids.


At our school at least 10 kids admitted and 8 are turning it down. That's material.

Assuming you are coming from Deal? Or Hardy?

Anonymous
Post 05/05/2026 15:59     Subject: Lottery Nerd - Waitlist predictions

I feel like this myth about suburban schools blowing anything out of the water is kept alive by families who moved to suburbs because they couldn't afford living in the city anymore, to make themselves feel better that they moved.
-------------------------------------
This is truth because unless everyone can suddenly afford a 650k to million dollar home in MoCo, Fairfax Co or Arlington, lets be serious here lol. Some of it is a true gamble and this is someone who lives in the burbs. It's a different set of problems.
Anonymous
Post 05/05/2026 15:56     Subject: Re:Lottery Nerd - Waitlist predictions,

Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Why would more families leave DCPS and not go to Hardy specifically now? Hardy is better than it ever was.


Because it now feeds to MacArthur.



This. They are moving to the burbs for a much better guaranteed middle school and high school option.

The good middle schools in the burbs just blows Hardy out of the water, not to mention not having to deal with the dysfunction and sh”tshow that is DCPS. Also throw in so many more course offerrings, EC, and better facilities.


Eh, my friend's kid is going to Longfellow in McLean and from their stories, it feels like teachers in Hardy are much better on average, as well as approach to resolving issues taking place at school.


I feel like this myth about suburban schools blowing anything out of the water is kept alive by families who moved to suburbs because they couldn't afford living in the city anymore, to make themselves feel better that they moved.


Or just to rationalize their choices that were based on assumptions that did not prove to be true. I know lots of people who moved to the burbs and found the grass was just about the same shade of green if not less so