I know a fair amount of households where at least one is a fed and they rely on that salary to pay the bills. I think most wouldn't consider selling their homes until 6-12 months after one lost their job. There will be too much competition for people to simply go private sector around here. I think if feds really lose out, they'll be out of work for a long time. It's infuriating and terrifying.

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:It's not nearly as expensive everywhere else. Lots of mid-sized cities that are way more affordable, especially in places that people on this board would call flyover country. Those places are safe, have good schools, and don't have nightmare commutes if you have to live far from your job. Broaden your horizons -- there's more to the world than the DMV.

Nice try but most of us are from.those places and we know why we left.

OK. The ivy league colleges are filled with kids from those places. And people there in blue collar jobs can afford houses that don't have nightmare commutes. They can even run their errands without running into long lines, lack of parking, and gridlock everywhere. I like this area too, but I am always surprised when people are too closed-minded to explore alternatives.

Interesting that you don't mention taxes and good public schools. Those are two of the best reasons why to stay here.

They also don't mention that a lot of us are locked at low interest rates and it would cost us more to buy a house in a "cheaper" area than it would for us to just hunker down and stay here.

According to the linked OPM report, there are 449,503 federal civilian employees between Maryland, Washington DC, and Virginia. This figure does not include federal contractors. 40% of the economy is also based in some way on the federal government. People will hunker down for as long as they can, but most people can't hunker down indefinitely.

https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R47716
https://www.washingtonian.com/2025/01/29/trumps-attempts-to-shrink-the-federal-workforce-could-hit-the-dc-areas-economy-hard/

Those of us who have to hunker down because there is no other place to go and/or having family here, wanting kids to finish school, cannot afford to sell at rock bottom prices, etc will be looking for remote jobs or jobs in other sectors. There are many essential jobs and jobs that while relying on local economy cannot just disappear unless the entire metro area falls into ruin in literal sense and only 1/3 of the population remains. Do you really see this happening?

I don’t think that anyone, including Trump and Musk, knows what’s happening. All that said, if a scenario like 40% (~179,000) of the federal workforce in the DMV is laid off and contractors and contracts are cut, there are no DC specific (as in DC and close in MD and VA suburbs) historical parallels that we can look to in order to see how the housing market will fair. DC was one of the least affected housing markets during the 2008 financial crisis, largely because of the federal government; during the 2013 sequestration it saw a brief slowdown before rebounding; and in the 1990s federal reductions led to short-term softening, but nothing larger. None of these situations seems to really come close to a hypothetical worst case scenario under Trump.

The numbers aren't there to impact things as much as some may think as you have to look at the total population but it really could hurt one income feds or dual income feds, especially those with high expenses and no savings.

Nobody is debating this, what you say makes total sense. But the impact analysis on RE markets has to consider so much more, the big picture.

The bigger picture is not so much the fed issue but housing prices combined with interest rates. You need a huge income to afford a $800-2 million dollar house and that's pretty much it around here. There are some pockets of $400-700 but those houses go quickly. Housing prices are not sustainable for average workers. Not including child care costs, food, and other basic goods.

How much of this housing belongs to average workers though? Except those who bought long time ago. Are these non average workers going to move? That's also a part of the equation. As well as whether all the people who bought housing when it was affordable and now pay way below market are going to move or try to find other employment.

This. No two family feds live near us in Bethesda unless they bought long ago.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's not nearly as expensive everywhere else. Lots of mid-sized cities that are way more affordable, especially in places that people on this board would call flyover country. Those places are safe, have good schools, and don't have nightmare commutes if you have to live far from your job. Broaden your horizons -- there's more to the world than the DMV.

Nice try but most of us are from.those places and we know why we left.

OK. The ivy league colleges are filled with kids from those places. And people there in blue collar jobs can afford houses that don't have nightmare commutes. They can even run their errands without running into long lines, lack of parking, and gridlock everywhere. I like this area too, but I am always surprised when people are too closed-minded to explore alternatives.

Interesting that you don't mention taxes and good public schools. Those are two of the best reasons why to stay here.

They also don't mention that a lot of us are locked at low interest rates and it would cost us more to buy a house in a "cheaper" area than it would for us to just hunker down and stay here.

According to the linked OPM report, there are 449,503 federal civilian employees between Maryland, Washington DC, and Virginia. This figure does not include federal contractors. 40% of the economy is also based in some way on the federal government. People will hunker down for as long as they can, but most people can't hunker down indefinitely.

https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R47716
https://www.washingtonian.com/2025/01/29/trumps-attempts-to-shrink-the-federal-workforce-could-hit-the-dc-areas-economy-hard/

Those of us who have to hunker down because there is no other place to go and/or having family here, wanting kids to finish school, cannot afford to sell at rock bottom prices, etc will be looking for remote jobs or jobs in other sectors. There are many essential jobs and jobs that while relying on local economy cannot just disappear unless the entire metro area falls into ruin in literal sense and only 1/3 of the population remains. Do you really see this happening?

I don’t think that anyone, including Trump and Musk, knows what’s happening. All that said, if a scenario like 40% (~179,000) of the federal workforce in the DMV is laid off and contractors and contracts are cut, there are no DC specific (as in DC and close in MD and VA suburbs) historical parallels that we can look to in order to see how the housing market will fair. DC was one of the least affected housing markets during the 2008 financial crisis, largely because of the federal government; during the 2013 sequestration it saw a brief slowdown before rebounding; and in the 1990s federal reductions led to short-term softening, but nothing larger. None of these situations seems to really come close to a hypothetical worst case scenario under Trump.

The numbers aren't there to impact things as much as some may think as you have to look at the total population but it really could hurt one income feds or dual income feds, especially those with high expenses and no savings.

Nobody is debating this, what you say makes total sense. But the impact analysis on RE markets has to consider so much more, the big picture.

Again, you still have to look at the number of feds and contractors vs. everyone else. And, many may have low mortgages or paid off their house, like we did planning for something like this to happen.

You planned for something like this to happen? Interesting. Also even if you have a paid off house unless you also have some pension, SS, or another source of income you cannot pay all other living expenses.

My spouse has been a contractor for years and contracts are never stable. Left for a big company known for terminations and layoffs. So, yes, we planned for it. We have savings. No other income which is why we plan for it.

This reflects the usual arbitration : those wo prefer a career in the civil service, with less discretionary income and opportunities to make big bucks/ save a ton but no risk. Versus private sector/contractors with higher salaries and bonuses that you put away to weather uncertainty.

I have been both and i didnt plan the same way depending on my status. Civil servants should not be considered reckless because they didnt save their non existent end of year bonus or 20% of their salaries for layoffs that you expect in the private sector. You are not a genius or morally superior PP. You were making decisions under a completely different set of assumptions.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There will be many more contractors to fill the same roles. I am not worried.

Contractors are also being let go.

Yeah, article just out about Elon training AI to do most of government work. It’s crazy and he’s awful.

It's amusing that you just realized that the reason Trump wants feds gone is to have AI take over many government functions Most tech people understand that a large part of the current workforce will be on UBI within 10 years and only high touch jobs will be available.

I have been hearing tech will take over jobs forever and the closest we've come is automation is manufacturing which is not putting out white collar workers. Musk has been touting that FSD will be a thing in a year for over half a decade. So sorry if I have a hard time believing we're going to be living in a full AI universe in a decade.

I wouldn't panic sell based on AI. I would panic though that the country is going to be in a deep recession because a bunch of dudes who were never told they were cool want to run the planet like the dumbest cartoon villains.

FWIW, FSD is a thing and works rather well.. SF has tons of driverless taxis now too. But it does take time to automate other jobs. Self driving car idea was born decades ago and people were working on this since late 90s at least.
To do so much automation in so many subject areas (not just driving), you need people and will have to create jobs. Where will the jobs be that have to do with the government functions and who will be training AI on the subject matter they must understand? You can't outsource to TX or Silicon valley, it's the SME expertise and it's HERE.

Legally speaking FSD isn't really here. It exists. It's not here. It has small applications that actually don't work particularly well at scale.

But yeah these guys think they can AI their way into having a few tech bros automate everything and that's unsurprisingly not how this works. The company Musk has had full control and limited guardrails on is Twitter and he's run it off a cliff (though effectively in utilizing it to sway an election). Either they're going to miraculously AI their way to a fully automated future or there's going to a be a reckoning when they break everything including the economy. At that point I think real estate is but a blip in our concerns.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's not nearly as expensive everywhere else. Lots of mid-sized cities that are way more affordable, especially in places that people on this board would call flyover country. Those places are safe, have good schools, and don't have nightmare commutes if you have to live far from your job. Broaden your horizons -- there's more to the world than the DMV.

Nice try but most of us are from.those places and we know why we left.

OK. The ivy league colleges are filled with kids from those places. And people there in blue collar jobs can afford houses that don't have nightmare commutes. They can even run their errands without running into long lines, lack of parking, and gridlock everywhere. I like this area too, but I am always surprised when people are too closed-minded to explore alternatives.

Interesting that you don't mention taxes and good public schools. Those are two of the best reasons why to stay here.

They also don't mention that a lot of us are locked at low interest rates and it would cost us more to buy a house in a "cheaper" area than it would for us to just hunker down and stay here.

According to the linked OPM report, there are 449,503 federal civilian employees between Maryland, Washington DC, and Virginia. This figure does not include federal contractors. 40% of the economy is also based in some way on the federal government. People will hunker down for as long as they can, but most people can't hunker down indefinitely.

https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R47716
https://www.washingtonian.com/2025/01/29/trumps-attempts-to-shrink-the-federal-workforce-could-hit-the-dc-areas-economy-hard/

Those of us who have to hunker down because there is no other place to go and/or having family here, wanting kids to finish school, cannot afford to sell at rock bottom prices, etc will be looking for remote jobs or jobs in other sectors. There are many essential jobs and jobs that while relying on local economy cannot just disappear unless the entire metro area falls into ruin in literal sense and only 1/3 of the population remains. Do you really see this happening?

I don’t think that anyone, including Trump and Musk, knows what’s happening. All that said, if a scenario like 40% (~179,000) of the federal workforce in the DMV is laid off and contractors and contracts are cut, there are no DC specific (as in DC and close in MD and VA suburbs) historical parallels that we can look to in order to see how the housing market will fair. DC was one of the least affected housing markets during the 2008 financial crisis, largely because of the federal government; during the 2013 sequestration it saw a brief slowdown before rebounding; and in the 1990s federal reductions led to short-term softening, but nothing larger. None of these situations seems to really come close to a hypothetical worst case scenario under Trump.

The numbers aren't there to impact things as much as some may think as you have to look at the total population but it really could hurt one income feds or dual income feds, especially those with high expenses and no savings.

Nobody is debating this, what you say makes total sense. But the impact analysis on RE markets has to consider so much more, the big picture.

Again, you still have to look at the number of feds and contractors vs. everyone else. And, many may have low mortgages or paid off their house, like we did planning for something like this to happen.

You planned for something like this to happen? Interesting. Also even if you have a paid off house unless you also have some pension, SS, or another source of income you cannot pay all other living expenses.

My spouse has been a contractor for years and contracts are never stable. Left for a big company known for terminations and layoffs. So, yes, we planned for it. We have savings. No other income which is why we plan for it.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's not nearly as expensive everywhere else. Lots of mid-sized cities that are way more affordable, especially in places that people on this board would call flyover country. Those places are safe, have good schools, and don't have nightmare commutes if you have to live far from your job. Broaden your horizons -- there's more to the world than the DMV.

Nice try but most of us are from.those places and we know why we left.

OK. The ivy league colleges are filled with kids from those places. And people there in blue collar jobs can afford houses that don't have nightmare commutes. They can even run their errands without running into long lines, lack of parking, and gridlock everywhere. I like this area too, but I am always surprised when people are too closed-minded to explore alternatives.

Interesting that you don't mention taxes and good public schools. Those are two of the best reasons why to stay here.

They also don't mention that a lot of us are locked at low interest rates and it would cost us more to buy a house in a "cheaper" area than it would for us to just hunker down and stay here.

According to the linked OPM report, there are 449,503 federal civilian employees between Maryland, Washington DC, and Virginia. This figure does not include federal contractors. 40% of the economy is also based in some way on the federal government. People will hunker down for as long as they can, but most people can't hunker down indefinitely.

https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R47716
https://www.washingtonian.com/2025/01/29/trumps-attempts-to-shrink-the-federal-workforce-could-hit-the-dc-areas-economy-hard/

Those of us who have to hunker down because there is no other place to go and/or having family here, wanting kids to finish school, cannot afford to sell at rock bottom prices, etc will be looking for remote jobs or jobs in other sectors. There are many essential jobs and jobs that while relying on local economy cannot just disappear unless the entire metro area falls into ruin in literal sense and only 1/3 of the population remains. Do you really see this happening?

I don’t think that anyone, including Trump and Musk, knows what’s happening. All that said, if a scenario like 40% (~179,000) of the federal workforce in the DMV is laid off and contractors and contracts are cut, there are no DC specific (as in DC and close in MD and VA suburbs) historical parallels that we can look to in order to see how the housing market will fair. DC was one of the least affected housing markets during the 2008 financial crisis, largely because of the federal government; during the 2013 sequestration it saw a brief slowdown before rebounding; and in the 1990s federal reductions led to short-term softening, but nothing larger. None of these situations seems to really come close to a hypothetical worst case scenario under Trump.

The numbers aren't there to impact things as much as some may think as you have to look at the total population but it really could hurt one income feds or dual income feds, especially those with high expenses and no savings.

Nobody is debating this, what you say makes total sense. But the impact analysis on RE markets has to consider so much more, the big picture.

Again, you still have to look at the number of feds and contractors vs. everyone else. And, many may have low mortgages or paid off their house, like we did planning for something like this to happen.

You planned for something like this to happen? Interesting. Also even if you have a paid off house unless you also have some pension, SS, or another source of income you cannot pay all other living expenses.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's not nearly as expensive everywhere else. Lots of mid-sized cities that are way more affordable, especially in places that people on this board would call flyover country. Those places are safe, have good schools, and don't have nightmare commutes if you have to live far from your job. Broaden your horizons -- there's more to the world than the DMV.

Nice try but most of us are from.those places and we know why we left.

OK. The ivy league colleges are filled with kids from those places. And people there in blue collar jobs can afford houses that don't have nightmare commutes. They can even run their errands without running into long lines, lack of parking, and gridlock everywhere. I like this area too, but I am always surprised when people are too closed-minded to explore alternatives.

Interesting that you don't mention taxes and good public schools. Those are two of the best reasons why to stay here.

They also don't mention that a lot of us are locked at low interest rates and it would cost us more to buy a house in a "cheaper" area than it would for us to just hunker down and stay here.

According to the linked OPM report, there are 449,503 federal civilian employees between Maryland, Washington DC, and Virginia. This figure does not include federal contractors. 40% of the economy is also based in some way on the federal government. People will hunker down for as long as they can, but most people can't hunker down indefinitely.

https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R47716
https://www.washingtonian.com/2025/01/29/trumps-attempts-to-shrink-the-federal-workforce-could-hit-the-dc-areas-economy-hard/

Those of us who have to hunker down because there is no other place to go and/or having family here, wanting kids to finish school, cannot afford to sell at rock bottom prices, etc will be looking for remote jobs or jobs in other sectors. There are many essential jobs and jobs that while relying on local economy cannot just disappear unless the entire metro area falls into ruin in literal sense and only 1/3 of the population remains. Do you really see this happening?

I don’t think that anyone, including Trump and Musk, knows what’s happening. All that said, if a scenario like 40% (~179,000) of the federal workforce in the DMV is laid off and contractors and contracts are cut, there are no DC specific (as in DC and close in MD and VA suburbs) historical parallels that we can look to in order to see how the housing market will fair. DC was one of the least affected housing markets during the 2008 financial crisis, largely because of the federal government; during the 2013 sequestration it saw a brief slowdown before rebounding; and in the 1990s federal reductions led to short-term softening, but nothing larger. None of these situations seems to really come close to a hypothetical worst case scenario under Trump.

The numbers aren't there to impact things as much as some may think as you have to look at the total population but it really could hurt one income feds or dual income feds, especially those with high expenses and no savings.

Nobody is debating this, what you say makes total sense. But the impact analysis on RE markets has to consider so much more, the big picture.

The bigger picture is not so much the fed issue but housing prices combined with interest rates. You need a huge income to afford a $800-2 million dollar house and that's pretty much it around here. There are some pockets of $400-700 but those houses go quickly. Housing prices are not sustainable for average workers. Not including child care costs, food, and other basic goods.

How much of this housing belongs to average workers though? Except those who bought long time ago. Are these non average workers going to move? That's also a part of the equation. As well as whether all the people who bought housing when it was affordable and now pay way below market are going to move or try to find other employment.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's not nearly as expensive everywhere else. Lots of mid-sized cities that are way more affordable, especially in places that people on this board would call flyover country. Those places are safe, have good schools, and don't have nightmare commutes if you have to live far from your job. Broaden your horizons -- there's more to the world than the DMV.

Nice try but most of us are from.those places and we know why we left.

OK. The ivy league colleges are filled with kids from those places. And people there in blue collar jobs can afford houses that don't have nightmare commutes. They can even run their errands without running into long lines, lack of parking, and gridlock everywhere. I like this area too, but I am always surprised when people are too closed-minded to explore alternatives.

Interesting that you don't mention taxes and good public schools. Those are two of the best reasons why to stay here.

They also don't mention that a lot of us are locked at low interest rates and it would cost us more to buy a house in a "cheaper" area than it would for us to just hunker down and stay here.

According to the linked OPM report, there are 449,503 federal civilian employees between Maryland, Washington DC, and Virginia. This figure does not include federal contractors. 40% of the economy is also based in some way on the federal government. People will hunker down for as long as they can, but most people can't hunker down indefinitely.

https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R47716
https://www.washingtonian.com/2025/01/29/trumps-attempts-to-shrink-the-federal-workforce-could-hit-the-dc-areas-economy-hard/

Those of us who have to hunker down because there is no other place to go and/or having family here, wanting kids to finish school, cannot afford to sell at rock bottom prices, etc will be looking for remote jobs or jobs in other sectors. There are many essential jobs and jobs that while relying on local economy cannot just disappear unless the entire metro area falls into ruin in literal sense and only 1/3 of the population remains. Do you really see this happening?

I don’t think that anyone, including Trump and Musk, knows what’s happening. All that said, if a scenario like 40% (~179,000) of the federal workforce in the DMV is laid off and contractors and contracts are cut, there are no DC specific (as in DC and close in MD and VA suburbs) historical parallels that we can look to in order to see how the housing market will fair. DC was one of the least affected housing markets during the 2008 financial crisis, largely because of the federal government; during the 2013 sequestration it saw a brief slowdown before rebounding; and in the 1990s federal reductions led to short-term softening, but nothing larger. None of these situations seems to really come close to a hypothetical worst case scenario under Trump.

The numbers aren't there to impact things as much as some may think as you have to look at the total population but it really could hurt one income feds or dual income feds, especially those with high expenses and no savings.

Nobody is debating this, what you say makes total sense. But the impact analysis on RE markets has to consider so much more, the big picture.

The bigger picture is not so much the fed issue but housing prices combined with interest rates. You need a huge income to afford a $800-2 million dollar house and that's pretty much it around here. There are some pockets of $400-700 but those houses go quickly. Housing prices are not sustainable for average workers. Not including child care costs, food, and other basic goods.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's not nearly as expensive everywhere else. Lots of mid-sized cities that are way more affordable, especially in places that people on this board would call flyover country. Those places are safe, have good schools, and don't have nightmare commutes if you have to live far from your job. Broaden your horizons -- there's more to the world than the DMV.

Nice try but most of us are from.those places and we know why we left.

OK. The ivy league colleges are filled with kids from those places. And people there in blue collar jobs can afford houses that don't have nightmare commutes. They can even run their errands without running into long lines, lack of parking, and gridlock everywhere. I like this area too, but I am always surprised when people are too closed-minded to explore alternatives.

Interesting that you don't mention taxes and good public schools. Those are two of the best reasons why to stay here.

They also don't mention that a lot of us are locked at low interest rates and it would cost us more to buy a house in a "cheaper" area than it would for us to just hunker down and stay here.

According to the linked OPM report, there are 449,503 federal civilian employees between Maryland, Washington DC, and Virginia. This figure does not include federal contractors. 40% of the economy is also based in some way on the federal government. People will hunker down for as long as they can, but most people can't hunker down indefinitely.

https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R47716
https://www.washingtonian.com/2025/01/29/trumps-attempts-to-shrink-the-federal-workforce-could-hit-the-dc-areas-economy-hard/

Those of us who have to hunker down because there is no other place to go and/or having family here, wanting kids to finish school, cannot afford to sell at rock bottom prices, etc will be looking for remote jobs or jobs in other sectors. There are many essential jobs and jobs that while relying on local economy cannot just disappear unless the entire metro area falls into ruin in literal sense and only 1/3 of the population remains. Do you really see this happening?

I don’t think that anyone, including Trump and Musk, knows what’s happening. All that said, if a scenario like 40% (~179,000) of the federal workforce in the DMV is laid off and contractors and contracts are cut, there are no DC specific (as in DC and close in MD and VA suburbs) historical parallels that we can look to in order to see how the housing market will fair. DC was one of the least affected housing markets during the 2008 financial crisis, largely because of the federal government; during the 2013 sequestration it saw a brief slowdown before rebounding; and in the 1990s federal reductions led to short-term softening, but nothing larger. None of these situations seems to really come close to a hypothetical worst case scenario under Trump.

The numbers aren't there to impact things as much as some may think as you have to look at the total population but it really could hurt one income feds or dual income feds, especially those with high expenses and no savings.

Nobody is debating this, what you say makes total sense. But the impact analysis on RE markets has to consider so much more, the big picture.

Again, you still have to look at the number of feds and contractors vs. everyone else. And, many may have low mortgages or paid off their house, like we did planning for something like this to happen.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's not nearly as expensive everywhere else. Lots of mid-sized cities that are way more affordable, especially in places that people on this board would call flyover country. Those places are safe, have good schools, and don't have nightmare commutes if you have to live far from your job. Broaden your horizons -- there's more to the world than the DMV.

Nice try but most of us are from.those places and we know why we left.

OK. The ivy league colleges are filled with kids from those places. And people there in blue collar jobs can afford houses that don't have nightmare commutes. They can even run their errands without running into long lines, lack of parking, and gridlock everywhere. I like this area too, but I am always surprised when people are too closed-minded to explore alternatives.

Interesting that you don't mention taxes and good public schools. Those are two of the best reasons why to stay here.

They also don't mention that a lot of us are locked at low interest rates and it would cost us more to buy a house in a "cheaper" area than it would for us to just hunker down and stay here.

According to the linked OPM report, there are 449,503 federal civilian employees between Maryland, Washington DC, and Virginia. This figure does not include federal contractors. 40% of the economy is also based in some way on the federal government. People will hunker down for as long as they can, but most people can't hunker down indefinitely.

https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R47716
https://www.washingtonian.com/2025/01/29/trumps-attempts-to-shrink-the-federal-workforce-could-hit-the-dc-areas-economy-hard/

Those of us who have to hunker down because there is no other place to go and/or having family here, wanting kids to finish school, cannot afford to sell at rock bottom prices, etc will be looking for remote jobs or jobs in other sectors. There are many essential jobs and jobs that while relying on local economy cannot just disappear unless the entire metro area falls into ruin in literal sense and only 1/3 of the population remains. Do you really see this happening?

I don’t think that anyone, including Trump and Musk, knows what’s happening. All that said, if a scenario like 40% (~179,000) of the federal workforce in the DMV is laid off and contractors and contracts are cut, there are no DC specific (as in DC and close in MD and VA suburbs) historical parallels that we can look to in order to see how the housing market will fair. DC was one of the least affected housing markets during the 2008 financial crisis, largely because of the federal government; during the 2013 sequestration it saw a brief slowdown before rebounding; and in the 1990s federal reductions led to short-term softening, but nothing larger. None of these situations seems to really come close to a hypothetical worst case scenario under Trump.

The numbers aren't there to impact things as much as some may think as you have to look at the total population but it really could hurt one income feds or dual income feds, especially those with high expenses and no savings.

Nobody is debating this, what you say makes total sense. But the impact analysis on RE markets has to consider so much more, the big picture.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There will be many more contractors to fill the same roles. I am not worried.

Contractors are also being let go.

Yeah, article just out about Elon training AI to do most of government work. It’s crazy and he’s awful.

It's amusing that you just realized that the reason Trump wants feds gone is to have AI take over many government functions Most tech people understand that a large part of the current workforce will be on UBI within 10 years and only high touch jobs will be available.

I have been hearing tech will take over jobs forever and the closest we've come is automation is manufacturing which is not putting out white collar workers. Musk has been touting that FSD will be a thing in a year for over half a decade. So sorry if I have a hard time believing we're going to be living in a full AI universe in a decade.

I wouldn't panic sell based on AI. I would panic though that the country is going to be in a deep recession because a bunch of dudes who were never told they were cool want to run the planet like the dumbest cartoon villains.

FWIW, FSD is a thing and works rather well.. SF has tons of driverless taxis now too. But it does take time to automate other jobs. Self driving car idea was born decades ago and people were working on this since late 90s at least.
To do so much automation in so many subject areas (not just driving), you need people and will have to create jobs. Where will the jobs be that have to do with the government functions and who will be training AI on the subject matter they must understand? You can't outsource to TX or Silicon valley, it's the SME expertise and it's HERE.

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Anonymous wrote:It's not nearly as expensive everywhere else. Lots of mid-sized cities that are way more affordable, especially in places that people on this board would call flyover country. Those places are safe, have good schools, and don't have nightmare commutes if you have to live far from your job. Broaden your horizons -- there's more to the world than the DMV.

Nice try but most of us are from.those places and we know why we left.

OK. The ivy league colleges are filled with kids from those places. And people there in blue collar jobs can afford houses that don't have nightmare commutes. They can even run their errands without running into long lines, lack of parking, and gridlock everywhere. I like this area too, but I am always surprised when people are too closed-minded to explore alternatives.

Interesting that you don't mention taxes and good public schools. Those are two of the best reasons why to stay here.

They also don't mention that a lot of us are locked at low interest rates and it would cost us more to buy a house in a "cheaper" area than it would for us to just hunker down and stay here.

According to the linked OPM report, there are 449,503 federal civilian employees between Maryland, Washington DC, and Virginia. This figure does not include federal contractors. 40% of the economy is also based in some way on the federal government. People will hunker down for as long as they can, but most people can't hunker down indefinitely.

https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R47716
https://www.washingtonian.com/2025/01/29/trumps-attempts-to-shrink-the-federal-workforce-could-hit-the-dc-areas-economy-hard/

Those of us who have to hunker down because there is no other place to go and/or having family here, wanting kids to finish school, cannot afford to sell at rock bottom prices, etc will be looking for remote jobs or jobs in other sectors. There are many essential jobs and jobs that while relying on local economy cannot just disappear unless the entire metro area falls into ruin in literal sense and only 1/3 of the population remains. Do you really see this happening?

I don’t think that anyone, including Trump and Musk, knows what’s happening. All that said, if a scenario like 40% (~179,000) of the federal workforce in the DMV is laid off and contractors and contracts are cut, there are no DC specific (as in DC and close in MD and VA suburbs) historical parallels that we can look to in order to see how the housing market will fair. DC was one of the least affected housing markets during the 2008 financial crisis, largely because of the federal government; during the 2013 sequestration it saw a brief slowdown before rebounding; and in the 1990s federal reductions led to short-term softening, but nothing larger. None of these situations seems to really come close to a hypothetical worst case scenario under Trump.

The numbers aren't there to impact things as much as some may think as you have to look at the total population but it really could hurt one income feds or dual income feds, especially those with high expenses and no savings.

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Anonymous wrote:There will be many more contractors to fill the same roles. I am not worried.

Contractors are also being let go.

Yeah, article just out about Elon training AI to do most of government work. It’s crazy and he’s awful.

It's amusing that you just realized that the reason Trump wants feds gone is to have AI take over many government functions Most tech people understand that a large part of the current workforce will be on UBI within 10 years and only high touch jobs will be available.

I have been hearing tech will take over jobs forever and the closest we've come is automation is manufacturing which is not putting out white collar workers. Musk has been touting that FSD will be a thing in a year for over half a decade. So sorry if I have a hard time believing we're going to be living in a full AI universe in a decade.

I wouldn't panic sell based on AI. I would panic though that the country is going to be in a deep recession because a bunch of dudes who were never told they were cool want to run the planet like the dumbest cartoon villains.

Instead of the slash and burn it would be better to get more money for US manufacturing and farming so we can build up our own and not have to buy foreign. That would be a better way to use AI/robots. To do all these cuts and tariffs without thinking through the long term is insane.

Anonymous wrote:You know, feds can get other remote jobs. I own a consulting business with 14 employees who live all over the country. Our lowest salary is around $80k with great benefits. We aren't hiring but there are jobs out there.

$80k is not so great when many are making double that. And, what are great benefits to you?

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Anonymous wrote:It's not nearly as expensive everywhere else. Lots of mid-sized cities that are way more affordable, especially in places that people on this board would call flyover country. Those places are safe, have good schools, and don't have nightmare commutes if you have to live far from your job. Broaden your horizons -- there's more to the world than the DMV.

Nice try but most of us are from.those places and we know why we left.

OK. The ivy league colleges are filled with kids from those places. And people there in blue collar jobs can afford houses that don't have nightmare commutes. They can even run their errands without running into long lines, lack of parking, and gridlock everywhere. I like this area too, but I am always surprised when people are too closed-minded to explore alternatives.

Interesting that you don't mention taxes and good public schools. Those are two of the best reasons why to stay here.

They also don't mention that a lot of us are locked at low interest rates and it would cost us more to buy a house in a "cheaper" area than it would for us to just hunker down and stay here.

According to the linked OPM report, there are 449,503 federal civilian employees between Maryland, Washington DC, and Virginia. This figure does not include federal contractors. 40% of the economy is also based in some way on the federal government. People will hunker down for as long as they can, but most people can't hunker down indefinitely.

https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R47716
https://www.washingtonian.com/2025/01/29/trumps-attempts-to-shrink-the-federal-workforce-could-hit-the-dc-areas-economy-hard/

Those of us who have to hunker down because there is no other place to go and/or having family here, wanting kids to finish school, cannot afford to sell at rock bottom prices, etc will be looking for remote jobs or jobs in other sectors. There are many essential jobs and jobs that while relying on local economy cannot just disappear unless the entire metro area falls into ruin in literal sense and only 1/3 of the population remains. Do you really see this happening?

I don’t think that anyone, including Trump and Musk, knows what’s happening. All that said, if a scenario like 40% (~179,000) of the federal workforce in the DMV is laid off and contractors and contracts are cut, there are no DC specific (as in DC and close in MD and VA suburbs) historical parallels that we can look to in order to see how the housing market will fair. DC was one of the least affected housing markets during the 2008 financial crisis, largely because of the federal government; during the 2013 sequestration it saw a brief slowdown before rebounding; and in the 1990s federal reductions led to short-term softening, but nothing larger. None of these situations seems to really come close to a hypothetical worst case scenario under Trump.

Does 180K households represent 1/3 of DC metro population assuming there will be these many jobs cut off specifically in DC metro and forever gone, and also assuming none of these people stand a chance landing another job in DC metro or a remote gig and rely on earned income? Population of DC metro is about 6 mil. What are all other 3 mil people doing if you get aggressive: assume that 1 mil jobs are gone due to contractors, which makes it 5 mil people remaining and 2mil are people who cannot work (elderly, or kids)? In the doomsayers view they are all servicing the government indirectly by providing essential services, etc, and most of them run out of jobs 1 mil gov related jobs depart DC metro kicking 1 mil families out because every one of them will never find another job or remote gig and completely rely on earned income.

Is this reflecting the line of thinking you are doing to get us to the doomsday and the RE apocalypse of DC?