Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:A lot of the polling assumes average voter turnout.

I think they are bigly underestimating women and youth vote and energy around Dobbs and abortion rights.

I think you're over estimating young people's support for Biden. When both candidates are awful, people who have been voting for years pick the lesser of two evils. People who are occasional voters stay home

There is no blueprint to follow when trying to predict turnout and results of the 2024 presidential election as we've never had two major party candidates as unpopular and potentially unfit as the two presumed 2024 nominees. The dynamics of this year's election has the brains of political scientists working overtime.

These are literally the same two guys who ran in 2020.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:A lot of the polling assumes average voter turnout.

I think they are bigly underestimating women and youth vote and energy around Dobbs and abortion rights.

I think you're over estimating young people's support for Biden. When both candidates are awful, people who have been voting for years pick the lesser of two evils. People who are occasional voters stay home

There is no blueprint to follow when trying to predict turnout and results of the 2024 presidential election as we've never had two major party candidates as unpopular and potentially unfit as the two presumed 2024 nominees. The dynamics of this year's election has the brains of political scientists working overtime.

Looking at the elections held in 2021, 2022 and 2023 is a very good place to start.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:A lot of the polling assumes average voter turnout.

I think they are bigly underestimating women and youth vote and energy around Dobbs and abortion rights.

I think you're over estimating young people's support for Biden. When both candidates are awful, people who have been voting for years pick the lesser of two evils. People who are occasional voters stay home

There is no blueprint to follow when trying to predict turnout and results of the 2024 presidential election as we've never had two major party candidates as unpopular and potentially unfit as the two presumed 2024 nominees. The dynamics of this year's election has the brains of political scientists working overtime.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:A lot of the polling assumes average voter turnout.

I think they are bigly underestimating women and youth vote and energy around Dobbs and abortion rights.

I think you're over estimating young people's support for Biden. When both candidates are awful, people who have been voting for years pick the lesser of two evils. People who are occasional voters stay home

I think you are underestimating the army of moms that will, call, text, email and generally harass their children to get down to those polls and vote to stop this anti-mom, anti-women, nonsense.

Anonymous wrote:A lot of the polling assumes average voter turnout.

I think they are bigly underestimating women and youth vote and energy around Dobbs and abortion rights.

I think you're over estimating young people's support for Biden. When both candidates are awful, people who have been voting for years pick the lesser of two evils. People who are occasional voters stay home

Anonymous wrote:“President Biden narrowly leads Donald Trump in Pennsylvania, 43% to 42%, in a one-on-one match up. President Biden’s advantage is larger, 42% to 37%, when third-party candidates are included.”
https://www.fandmpoll.org/franklin-marshall-poll-release-february-2024/

Susquehanna - also a pollster focused on PA and one of the highest ranked polling firms in the country for accuracy - had Biden with a sizable lead just a week ago:

Franklin & Marshall has a pretty high error rate: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/rcp-pollster-scorecard/single-state/

“President Biden narrowly leads Donald Trump in Pennsylvania, 43% to 42%, in a one-on-one match up. President Biden’s advantage is larger, 42% to 37%, when third-party candidates are included.”
https://www.fandmpoll.org/franklin-marshall-poll-release-february-2024/

Latest Quinnipiac poll has Biden leading Trump by 6 points.

Analysis:

*That’s a shift in the incumbent’s favor from December, when Quinnipiac found the same Biden-Trump hypothetical “too close to call,” with Biden at 47 percent support and Trump at 46 percent.

*Biden also scored majority support among independents in the latest findings, with 52 percent support to Trump’s 40 percent.

*The poll additionally found a growing gender gap when it comes to support for the current and former presidents as they each run for a second White House term.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4440504-2024-election-biden-leads-trump-growing-gender-gap-quinnipiac-poll/

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Quinnipiac just released a national poll that shows Biden up by six over Trump.

https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3889

Independents!

Yes, but it really only matters in the swing states.

https://www.economy.com/getfile?q=95674FFE-7734-4401-877A-FE331AECD442&app=download

Trump will lose but Biden is gonna win under 280 ec’s and the country will be even further ungovernable

A lot of the polling assumes average voter turnout.

I think they are bigly underestimating women and youth vote and energy around Dobbs and abortion rights.

Anonymous wrote:Quinnipiac just released a national poll that shows Biden up by six over Trump.

https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3889

Independents!

Anonymous wrote:National polls irrelevant.

Swing states are all that matter, as you know.

If Biden wins nationally by 6, all of the swing states will be well in his favor.