Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Three new and final Marist polls for AZ, PA & GA. Marist is an "A" rated pollster.

Likely voters:
AZ Sen: 50-47 Kelly
GA Sen: 48-48
PA Sen: 51-45 Fetterman

Registered voters:

AZ Sen: 49-45 Kelly
GA Sen: 49-45 Warnock
PA Sen: 50-44 Fetterman
https://maristpoll.marist.edu/latest-polls/?fbclid=IwAR0ug8KOFchGZw4x5bsnAv6Sdp0C40JWV5QeGOme02kLiBRFnSH5SXdiMVc

It's going to be very tough for Oz to overcome Mastriano. With a normal candidate for Governor, Oz would win this by three points easily.

+1 Mastriano is a wing nut and bringing down the other races in PA with his nuttiness. Oz is an unqualified lightweight getting by on celebrity, but he’s not an extremist. With a halfway decent R candidate for Governor, I believe both races (Gov and Senate) would be VERY close and tilted in the R favor. It only takes a few voters around the edges just staying home/low enthusiasm to shift a close race.

All Republicans are extremists now. The normals are gone.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Three new and final Marist polls for AZ, PA & GA. Marist is an "A" rated pollster.

Likely voters:
AZ Sen: 50-47 Kelly
GA Sen: 48-48
PA Sen: 51-45 Fetterman

Registered voters:

AZ Sen: 49-45 Kelly
GA Sen: 49-45 Warnock
PA Sen: 50-44 Fetterman
https://maristpoll.marist.edu/latest-polls/?fbclid=IwAR0ug8KOFchGZw4x5bsnAv6Sdp0C40JWV5QeGOme02kLiBRFnSH5SXdiMVc

It's going to be very tough for Oz to overcome Mastriano. With a normal candidate for Governor, Oz would win this by three points easily.

You have conflated two separate races. Oz is running against Fetterman for US Senate (from PA). Mastriano is running for PA governor against Shapiro.

And despite Fetterman's bad showing at the debate, he still has a significant lead against Oz in the Senate race. It cut his lead from double digits down to about 5 points like the above polls show. The GOP has been using biased polling that oversamples Republicans to try and show the race is neck-and-neck. If you look at any of the media or independent polls they all show Fetterman with a lead outside the margin of error.

Pennsylvania is one of the states that has had a significantly higher number of women voters register since the Dobbs decision. New voter registration is about 2:1 women to men and the majority of those women are not registering to vote for Dr. "Women's medical decisions should be between the patient, her doctor and her local politician." Also, the young vote (18-25) is trending higher than the last several elections. Again, those young people are significantly more likely to vote Democratic than Republican. Republicans are worried, which is why they've been trying to flood the market with the biased polls that show the race neck-and-neck. I would be surprised if Oz comes within 5 points of Fetterman in the final tally. That would be a very good showing for him.

I haven't conflated anything.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Three new and final Marist polls for AZ, PA & GA. Marist is an "A" rated pollster.

Likely voters:
AZ Sen: 50-47 Kelly
GA Sen: 48-48
PA Sen: 51-45 Fetterman

Registered voters:

AZ Sen: 49-45 Kelly
GA Sen: 49-45 Warnock
PA Sen: 50-44 Fetterman
https://maristpoll.marist.edu/latest-polls/?fbclid=IwAR0ug8KOFchGZw4x5bsnAv6Sdp0C40JWV5QeGOme02kLiBRFnSH5SXdiMVc

It's going to be very tough for Oz to overcome Mastriano. With a normal candidate for Governor, Oz would win this by three points easily.

+1 Mastriano is a wing nut and bringing down the other races in PA with his nuttiness. Oz is an unqualified lightweight getting by on celebrity, but he’s not an extremist. With a halfway decent R candidate for Governor, I believe both races (Gov and Senate) would be VERY close and tilted in the R favor. It only takes a few voters around the edges just staying home/low enthusiasm to shift a close race.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Three new and final Marist polls for AZ, PA & GA. Marist is an "A" rated pollster.

Likely voters:
AZ Sen: 50-47 Kelly
GA Sen: 48-48
PA Sen: 51-45 Fetterman

Registered voters:

AZ Sen: 49-45 Kelly
GA Sen: 49-45 Warnock
PA Sen: 50-44 Fetterman
https://maristpoll.marist.edu/latest-polls/?fbclid=IwAR0ug8KOFchGZw4x5bsnAv6Sdp0C40JWV5QeGOme02kLiBRFnSH5SXdiMVc

It's going to be very tough for Oz to overcome Mastriano. With a normal candidate for Governor, Oz would win this by three points easily.

You have conflated two separate races. Oz is running against Fetterman for US Senate (from PA). Mastriano is running for PA governor against Shapiro.

And despite Fetterman's bad showing at the debate, he still has a significant lead against Oz in the Senate race. It cut his lead from double digits down to about 5 points like the above polls show. The GOP has been using biased polling that oversamples Republicans to try and show the race is neck-and-neck. If you look at any of the media or independent polls they all show Fetterman with a lead outside the margin of error.

Pennsylvania is one of the states that has had a significantly higher number of women voters register since the Dobbs decision. New voter registration is about 2:1 women to men and the majority of those women are not registering to vote for Dr. "Women's medical decisions should be between the patient, her doctor and her local politician." Also, the young vote (18-25) is trending higher than the last several elections. Again, those young people are significantly more likely to vote Democratic than Republican. Republicans are worried, which is why they've been trying to flood the market with the biased polls that show the race neck-and-neck. I would be surprised if Oz comes within 5 points of Fetterman in the final tally. That would be a very good showing for him.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Three new and final Marist polls for AZ, PA & GA. Marist is an "A" rated pollster.

Likely voters:
AZ Sen: 50-47 Kelly
GA Sen: 48-48
PA Sen: 51-45 Fetterman

Registered voters:

AZ Sen: 49-45 Kelly
GA Sen: 49-45 Warnock
PA Sen: 50-44 Fetterman
https://maristpoll.marist.edu/latest-polls/?fbclid=IwAR0ug8KOFchGZw4x5bsnAv6Sdp0C40JWV5QeGOme02kLiBRFnSH5SXdiMVc

It's going to be very tough for Oz to overcome Mastriano. With a normal candidate for Governor, Oz would win this by three points easily.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Three new and final Marist polls for AZ, PA & GA. Marist is an "A" rated pollster.

Likely voters:
AZ Sen: 50-47 Kelly
GA Sen: 48-48
PA Sen: 51-45 Fetterman

Registered voters:

AZ Sen: 49-45 Kelly
GA Sen: 49-45 Warnock
PA Sen: 50-44 Fetterman
https://maristpoll.marist.edu/latest-polls/?fbclid=IwAR0ug8KOFchGZw4x5bsnAv6Sdp0C40JWV5QeGOme02kLiBRFnSH5SXdiMVc

It's going to be very tough for Oz to overcome Mastriano. With a normal candidate for Governor, Oz would win this by three points easily.

You have conflated two separate races. Oz is running against Fetterman for US Senate (from PA). Mastriano is running for PA governor against Shapiro.

And despite Fetterman's bad showing at the debate, he still has a significant lead against Oz in the Senate race. It cut his lead from double digits down to about 5 points like the above polls show. The GOP has been using biased polling that oversamples Republicans to try and show the race is neck-and-neck. If you look at any of the media or independent polls they all show Fetterman with a lead outside the margin of error.

Pennsylvania is one of the states that has had a significantly higher number of women voters register since the Dobbs decision. New voter registration is about 2:1 women to men and the majority of those women are not registering to vote for Dr. "Women's medical decisions should be between the patient, her doctor and her local politician." Also, the young vote (18-25) is trending higher than the last several elections. Again, those young people are significantly more likely to vote Democratic than Republican. Republicans are worried, which is why they've been trying to flood the market with the biased polls that show the race neck-and-neck. I would be surprised if Oz comes within 5 points of Fetterman in the final tally. That would be a very good showing for him.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Three new and final Marist polls for AZ, PA & GA. Marist is an "A" rated pollster.

Likely voters:
AZ Sen: 50-47 Kelly
GA Sen: 48-48
PA Sen: 51-45 Fetterman

Registered voters:

AZ Sen: 49-45 Kelly
GA Sen: 49-45 Warnock
PA Sen: 50-44 Fetterman
https://maristpoll.marist.edu/latest-polls/?fbclid=IwAR0ug8KOFchGZw4x5bsnAv6Sdp0C40JWV5QeGOme02kLiBRFnSH5SXdiMVc

It's going to be very tough for Oz to overcome Mastriano. With a normal candidate for Governor, Oz would win this by three points easily.

You have conflated two separate races. Oz is running against Fetterman for US Senate (from PA). Mastriano is running for PA governor against Shapiro.

And despite Fetterman's bad showing at the debate, he still has a significant lead against Oz in the Senate race. It cut his lead from double digits down to about 5 points like the above polls show. The GOP has been using biased polling that oversamples Republicans to try and show the race is neck-and-neck. If you look at any of the media or independent polls they all show Fetterman with a lead outside the margin of error.

Pennsylvania is one of the states that has had a significantly higher number of women voters register since the Dobbs decision. New voter registration is about 2:1 women to men and the majority of those women are not registering to vote for Dr. "Women's medical decisions should be between the patient, her doctor and her local politician." Also, the young vote (18-25) is trending higher than the last several elections. Again, those young people are significantly more likely to vote Democratic than Republican. Republicans are worried, which is why they've been trying to flood the market with the biased polls that show the race neck-and-neck. I would be surprised if Oz comes within 5 points of Fetterman in the final tally. That would be a very good showing for him.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Three new and final Marist polls for AZ, PA & GA. Marist is an "A" rated pollster.

Likely voters:
AZ Sen: 50-47 Kelly
GA Sen: 48-48
PA Sen: 51-45 Fetterman

Registered voters:

AZ Sen: 49-45 Kelly
GA Sen: 49-45 Warnock
PA Sen: 50-44 Fetterman
https://maristpoll.marist.edu/latest-polls/?fbclid=IwAR0ug8KOFchGZw4x5bsnAv6Sdp0C40JWV5QeGOme02kLiBRFnSH5SXdiMVc

It's going to be very tough for Oz to overcome Mastriano. With a normal candidate for Governor, Oz would win this by three points easily.

Anonymous wrote:The 2024 senate map is brutal for the Ds. If the Rs get the 53 in the Senate next week they can easily get to 60 in 2024. They won’t need reconciliation for once a year must pass bills. They will be able to pass whatever they want whenever they want.

Anonymous wrote:The 2024 senate map is brutal for the Ds. If the Rs get the 53 in the Senate next week they can easily get to 60 in 2024. They won’t need reconciliation for once a year must pass bills. They will be able to pass whatever they want whenever they want.

Anonymous wrote:Three new and final Marist polls for AZ, PA & GA. Marist is an "A" rated pollster.

Likely voters:
AZ Sen: 50-47 Kelly
GA Sen: 48-48
PA Sen: 51-45 Fetterman

Registered voters:

AZ Sen: 49-45 Kelly
GA Sen: 49-45 Warnock
PA Sen: 50-44 Fetterman
https://maristpoll.marist.edu/latest-polls/?fbclid=IwAR0ug8KOFchGZw4x5bsnAv6Sdp0C40JWV5QeGOme02kLiBRFnSH5SXdiMVc

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:No one was spending on Cao's behalf until very recently. To me that means that the republicans now think it's winnable and the democrats agree and are trying to spend on Wexton

Yes. Super PACs are coming in and dumping money in the last weeks.
Democratic candidates have out fund raised republicans.
They are having to compete with outside money, and interests.

The outside interests wouldnt be spending unless they thought they could win. There are plenty of close races they could direct money to if they didn't think Cao could win

Anonymous wrote:No one was spending on Cao's behalf until very recently. To me that means that the republicans now think it's winnable and the democrats agree and are trying to spend on Wexton