Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The end of this market bubble will come when SCOTUS declares Trump's "emergency" tariffs are constitutional. All the importers and retailers have been surviving by selling their claims for tariff refunds in the event they are struck down. Wall Street has been buying up these claims for 20 cents on the dollar but we all know what happens when these refund claims become worthless.

This. And, unfortunately the writing is on the wall that they'll side with Trump because they suck. Will probably sell stock the day before they release their opinion.

2025 and 2026 look strong for US market returns. We are about to go on a run. Not saying it will not correct but likely not soon. The tariffs are going to turn out to be a non issue.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The end of this market bubble will come when SCOTUS declares Trump's "emergency" tariffs are constitutional. All the importers and retailers have been surviving by selling their claims for tariff refunds in the event they are struck down. Wall Street has been buying up these claims for 20 cents on the dollar but we all know what happens when these refund claims become worthless.

This. And, unfortunately the writing is on the wall that they'll side with Trump because they suck. Will probably sell stock the day before they release their opinion.

Anonymous wrote:Financial planner strongly suggested we move from having 1% of our retirement invested overseas, to 22%. Now.

Anonymous wrote:The end of this market bubble will come when SCOTUS declares Trump's "emergency" tariffs are constitutional. All the importers and retailers have been surviving by selling their claims for tariff refunds in the event they are struck down. Wall Street has been buying up these claims for 20 cents on the dollar but we all know what happens when these refund claims become worthless.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don't know about a crash. I'm expecting more of a slide into the 1970s muck of stagnant growth, stubborn inflation and a labor market where available jobs did not align with the skills/locations of the un/underemployed.

Tech and financial companies will consolidate and the winners will leverage AI to slash labor costs, monopolize markets and accumulate trillions in value.

The 5% at the top will note that they never have had it better (true!).

The labor market impacts are hitting now.

https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3m257r33ooa2d

Disagree about the AI savings- that bubble is months away from bursting. Gonna be a wild ride folks.

+1 All these companies' super-inflated numbers are based on best-case scenarios about savings and productivity boosts they're sure to see soon from the huge amount of money they've sunk into AI, and in 95% of cases it doesn't provide any measurable financial benefit at all. https://fortune.com/2025/08/18/mit-report-95-percent-generative-ai-pilots-at-companies-failing-cfo/

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don't know about a crash. I'm expecting more of a slide into the 1970s muck of stagnant growth, stubborn inflation and a labor market where available jobs did not align with the skills/locations of the un/underemployed.

Tech and financial companies will consolidate and the winners will leverage AI to slash labor costs, monopolize markets and accumulate trillions in value.

The 5% at the top will note that they never have had it better (true!).

The labor market impacts are hitting now.

https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3m257r33ooa2d

Disagree about the AI savings- that bubble is months away from bursting. Gonna be a wild ride folks.

+1 All these companies' super-inflated numbers are based on best-case scenarios about savings and productivity boosts they're sure to see soon from the huge amount of money they've sunk into AI, and in 95% of cases it doesn't provide any measurable financial benefit at all. https://fortune.com/2025/08/18/mit-report-95-percent-generative-ai-pilots-at-companies-failing-cfo/

Also a physical and monetary impossibility to build what these companies have said they are going to build.

https://www.wheresyoured.at/openai-onetrillion/

The way this has played out with these fake future contracts pumping up the stock values of Nvidia, Oracle, and a few others, cycling around from one to the other, is just crazy. The top of the market will see massive corrections.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don't know about a crash. I'm expecting more of a slide into the 1970s muck of stagnant growth, stubborn inflation and a labor market where available jobs did not align with the skills/locations of the un/underemployed.

Tech and financial companies will consolidate and the winners will leverage AI to slash labor costs, monopolize markets and accumulate trillions in value.

The 5% at the top will note that they never have had it better (true!).

The labor market impacts are hitting now.

https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3m257r33ooa2d

Disagree about the AI savings- that bubble is months away from bursting. Gonna be a wild ride folks.

+1 All these companies' super-inflated numbers are based on best-case scenarios about savings and productivity boosts they're sure to see soon from the huge amount of money they've sunk into AI, and in 95% of cases it doesn't provide any measurable financial benefit at all. https://fortune.com/2025/08/18/mit-report-95-percent-generative-ai-pilots-at-companies-failing-cfo/

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don't know about a crash. I'm expecting more of a slide into the 1970s muck of stagnant growth, stubborn inflation and a labor market where available jobs did not align with the skills/locations of the un/underemployed.

Tech and financial companies will consolidate and the winners will leverage AI to slash labor costs, monopolize markets and accumulate trillions in value.

The 5% at the top will note that they never have had it better (true!).

The labor market impacts are hitting now.

https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3m257r33ooa2d

Disagree about the AI savings- that bubble is months away from bursting. Gonna be a wild ride folks.

Anonymous wrote:I don't know about a crash. I'm expecting more of a slide into the 1970s muck of stagnant growth, stubborn inflation and a labor market where available jobs did not align with the skills/locations of the un/underemployed.

Tech and financial companies will consolidate and the winners will leverage AI to slash labor costs, monopolize markets and accumulate trillions in value.

The 5% at the top will note that they never have had it better (true!).

Anonymous wrote:For DC, absolutely. We just temporarily plateaued, but the real estate market is going down hard this time. I’m sad. I love this city.