Anonymous
Anonymous
11/02/2022 12:03
Subject: Re:2022 Senate Map
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:It's going to be a Democratic bloodbath on November 8. Republicans will control the House and Senate in 2023, maybe pick up some governorships.
And the Democrats have only themselves to blame, by nominating a befuddled and confused Joe Biden for president, lurching far more leftward than they should have and overseeing a crappy economy (whether it was their fault or not).
By the way, I'm a never Trump former Republican with a great distaste for the GOP. I'm just being realistic.
Prepare accordingly.
I think that Republicans are going to be disappointed the same way Democrats were the last two elections.
Right now, Republican leaning polls are trying to overwhelm and mislead the public with many polls that oversample Republicans. I've seem many where they are oversampling Republicans by 10-20%. They are also polling men disproportionately. They are not taking into account the wave of newly registered women, women who will be voting for abortion rights and against ultraconservative MAGA candidates. Additionally, early returns show that the young demographic 18-25 is voting in greater numbers than the last two elections. Another bad sign for Republicans.
Like in 2016 and 2020, when the polls oversampled Democrats and did not account for the "hidden" conservative wave of new voters, the new polls are overboard in the opposite direction. I believe that the Democrats will hold the Senate (I think they'll increase to 52-48) but lose the House.
I’m actually somewhat hopeful that the Democrats will expand their majorities in both. The GOP hasn’t exactly acted normally lately and ending Roe? I’ve never had an abortion (and I’m a weirdo who has only had one sexual partner) but what woman hasn’t had that moment (or days) of panic that you can’t remember when your last period was and oh my god am I late?
And then there are the numbers:
This will not be the slam dunk you hope it to be. There are many conservative religious women who have never "had that moment" and either are ambivalent about Roe or are happy to see it overturned. It's obvious that a lot of liberals/progressives want to pretend these groups of people don't exist because they're not part of your social circle.
I love that your bolded part includes where I said I have only had one partner and you immediately assume that I’m neither religious nor conservative. I’m actually conservative, as in I want to conserve that which makes our country wonderful.
As for pockets of regressive women? Yes, they exist. They have as many abortions as every other group of women. They absolutely know the moment of panic.
Anonymous
11/02/2022 11:57
Subject: Re:2022 Senate Map
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:It's going to be a Democratic bloodbath on November 8. Republicans will control the House and Senate in 2023, maybe pick up some governorships.
And the Democrats have only themselves to blame, by nominating a befuddled and confused Joe Biden for president, lurching far more leftward than they should have and overseeing a crappy economy (whether it was their fault or not).
By the way, I'm a never Trump former Republican with a great distaste for the GOP. I'm just being realistic.
Prepare accordingly.
I think that Republicans are going to be disappointed the same way Democrats were the last two elections.
Right now, Republican leaning polls are trying to overwhelm and mislead the public with many polls that oversample Republicans. I've seem many where they are oversampling Republicans by 10-20%. They are also polling men disproportionately. They are not taking into account the wave of newly registered women, women who will be voting for abortion rights and against ultraconservative MAGA candidates. Additionally, early returns show that the young demographic 18-25 is voting in greater numbers than the last two elections. Another bad sign for Republicans.
Like in 2016 and 2020, when the polls oversampled Democrats and did not account for the "hidden" conservative wave of new voters, the new polls are overboard in the opposite direction. I believe that the Democrats will hold the Senate (I think they'll increase to 52-48) but lose the House.
I’m actually somewhat hopeful that the Democrats will expand their majorities in both. The GOP hasn’t exactly acted normally lately and ending Roe? I’ve never had an abortion (and I’m a weirdo who has only had one sexual partner) but what woman hasn’t had that moment (or days) of panic that you can’t remember when your last period was and oh my god am I late?
And then there are the numbers:
This will not be the slam dunk you hope it to be. There are many conservative religious women who have never "had that moment" and either are ambivalent about Roe or are happy to see it overturned. It's obvious that a lot of liberals/progressives want to pretend these groups of people don't exist because they're not part of your social circle.
Anonymous
11/02/2022 11:49
Subject: Re:2022 Senate Map
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:It's going to be a Democratic bloodbath on November 8. Republicans will control the House and Senate in 2023, maybe pick up some governorships.
And the Democrats have only themselves to blame, by nominating a befuddled and confused Joe Biden for president, lurching far more leftward than they should have and overseeing a crappy economy (whether it was their fault or not).
By the way, I'm a never Trump former Republican with a great distaste for the GOP. I'm just being realistic.
Prepare accordingly.
I think that Republicans are going to be disappointed the same way Democrats were the last two elections.
Right now, Republican leaning polls are trying to overwhelm and mislead the public with many polls that oversample Republicans. I've seem many where they are oversampling Republicans by 10-20%. They are also polling men disproportionately. They are not taking into account the wave of newly registered women, women who will be voting for abortion rights and against ultraconservative MAGA candidates. Additionally, early returns show that the young demographic 18-25 is voting in greater numbers than the last two elections. Another bad sign for Republicans.
Like in 2016 and 2020, when the polls oversampled Democrats and did not account for the "hidden" conservative wave of new voters, the new polls are overboard in the opposite direction. I believe that the Democrats will hold the Senate (I think they'll increase to 52-48) but lose the House.
I hope you're right.
DP. Open some of those Simon Rosenberg links. I’m always aware that we look for the evidence we like, but if you look at the numbers of who has voted, it’s not looking nearly so dire for Democrats as everyone is trying to make it look.
Anonymous
11/02/2022 11:44
Subject: Re:2022 Senate Map
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:It's going to be a Democratic bloodbath on November 8. Republicans will control the House and Senate in 2023, maybe pick up some governorships.
And the Democrats have only themselves to blame, by nominating a befuddled and confused Joe Biden for president, lurching far more leftward than they should have and overseeing a crappy economy (whether it was their fault or not).
By the way, I'm a never Trump former Republican with a great distaste for the GOP. I'm just being realistic.
Prepare accordingly.
I think that Republicans are going to be disappointed the same way Democrats were the last two elections.
Right now, Republican leaning polls are trying to overwhelm and mislead the public with many polls that oversample Republicans. I've seem many where they are oversampling Republicans by 10-20%. They are also polling men disproportionately. They are not taking into account the wave of newly registered women, women who will be voting for abortion rights and against ultraconservative MAGA candidates. Additionally, early returns show that the young demographic 18-25 is voting in greater numbers than the last two elections. Another bad sign for Republicans.
Like in 2016 and 2020, when the polls oversampled Democrats and did not account for the "hidden" conservative wave of new voters, the new polls are overboard in the opposite direction. I believe that the Democrats will hold the Senate (I think they'll increase to 52-48) but lose the House.
I’m actually somewhat hopeful that the Democrats will expand their majorities in both. The GOP hasn’t exactly acted normally lately and ending Roe? I’ve never had an abortion (and I’m a weirdo who has only had one sexual partner) but what woman hasn’t had that moment (or days) of panic that you can’t remember when your last period was and oh my god am I late?
And then there are the numbers:
Anonymous
11/02/2022 11:41
Subject: Re:2022 Senate Map
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:It's going to be a Democratic bloodbath on November 8. Republicans will control the House and Senate in 2023, maybe pick up some governorships.
And the Democrats have only themselves to blame, by nominating a befuddled and confused Joe Biden for president, lurching far more leftward than they should have and overseeing a crappy economy (whether it was their fault or not).
By the way, I'm a never Trump former Republican with a great distaste for the GOP. I'm just being realistic.
Prepare accordingly.
I think that Republicans are going to be disappointed the same way Democrats were the last two elections.
Right now, Republican leaning polls are trying to overwhelm and mislead the public with many polls that oversample Republicans. I've seem many where they are oversampling Republicans by 10-20%. They are also polling men disproportionately. They are not taking into account the wave of newly registered women, women who will be voting for abortion rights and against ultraconservative MAGA candidates. Additionally, early returns show that the young demographic 18-25 is voting in greater numbers than the last two elections. Another bad sign for Republicans.
Like in 2016 and 2020, when the polls oversampled Democrats and did not account for the "hidden" conservative wave of new voters, the new polls are overboard in the opposite direction. I believe that the Democrats will hold the Senate (I think they'll increase to 52-48) but lose the House.
I hope you're right.
Anonymous
11/02/2022 11:37
Subject: Re:2022 Senate Map
Anonymous wrote:It's going to be a Democratic bloodbath on November 8. Republicans will control the House and Senate in 2023, maybe pick up some governorships.
And the Democrats have only themselves to blame, by nominating a befuddled and confused Joe Biden for president, lurching far more leftward than they should have and overseeing a crappy economy (whether it was their fault or not).
By the way, I'm a never Trump former Republican with a great distaste for the GOP. I'm just being realistic.
Prepare accordingly.
I think that Republicans are going to be disappointed the same way Democrats were the last two elections.
Right now, Republican leaning polls are trying to overwhelm and mislead the public with many polls that oversample Republicans. I've seem many where they are oversampling Republicans by 10-20%. They are also polling men disproportionately. They are not taking into account the wave of newly registered women, women who will be voting for abortion rights and against ultraconservative MAGA candidates. Additionally, early returns show that the young demographic 18-25 is voting in greater numbers than the last two elections. Another bad sign for Republicans.
Like in 2016 and 2020, when the polls oversampled Democrats and did not account for the "hidden" conservative wave of new voters, the new polls are overboard in the opposite direction. I believe that the Democrats will hold the Senate (I think they'll increase to 52-48) but lose the House.
Anonymous
11/02/2022 11:28
Subject: Re:2022 Senate Map
Anonymous wrote:It's going to be a Democratic bloodbath on November 8. Republicans will control the House and Senate in 2023, maybe pick up some governorships.
And the Democrats have only themselves to blame, by nominating a befuddled and confused Joe Biden for president, lurching far more leftward than they should have and overseeing a crappy economy (whether it was their fault or not).
By the way, I'm a never Trump former Republican with a great distaste for the GOP. I'm just being realistic.
Prepare accordingly.
The candidate nominated by the dems did in fact win the election. It was the republican dud that was the loser and then we all suffered regarless of party.
Anonymous
11/02/2022 11:20
Subject: Re:2022 Senate Map
Anonymous wrote:It's going to be a Democratic bloodbath on November 8. Republicans will control the House and Senate in 2023, maybe pick up some governorships.
And the Democrats have only themselves to blame, by nominating a befuddled and confused Joe Biden for president, lurching far more leftward than they should have and overseeing a crappy economy (whether it was their fault or not).
By the way, I'm a never Trump former Republican with a great distaste for the GOP. I'm just being realistic.
Prepare accordingly.
What does that mean? How do you "prepare accordingly" for a bloodbath, if you think one is coming? Like stock up on bottled water, Plan B pills, and try to get that second passport, or what?
Anonymous
11/02/2022 11:18
Subject: 2022 Senate Map
Anonymous wrote:I’d like to have some of whatever this Simon Rosenberg is smoking.
You can. Read his tweet thread and follow the links he supplies.
Anonymous
11/02/2022 11:17
Subject: 2022 Senate Map
I’d like to have some of whatever this Simon Rosenberg is smoking.
Anonymous
11/02/2022 10:27
Subject: Re:2022 Senate Map
Anonymous wrote:It's going to be a Democratic bloodbath on November 8. Republicans will control the House and Senate in 2023, maybe pick up some governorships.
And the Democrats have only themselves to blame, by nominating a befuddled and confused Joe Biden for president, lurching far more leftward than they should have and overseeing a crappy economy (whether it was their fault or not).
By the way, I'm a never Trump former Republican with a great distaste for the GOP. I'm just being realistic.
Prepare accordingly.
You’re pretty clearly a right wing Republican here to sow doom. No one lurched leftward, Biden isn’t befuddled or confused and he got a sh*t ton done despite the GOP actively working against him. And if the economy is crappy, a huge part of that is, again, your party actively trying to make it so.
Is it a close election? Are too many still swilling right wing propaganda? They are. Is the “mainstream” media failing to report on the GOP’s fascism? They are.
But:
Anonymous
11/02/2022 10:24
Subject: Re:2022 Senate Map
It's going to be a Democratic bloodbath on November 8. Republicans will control the House and Senate in 2023, maybe pick up some governorships.
And the Democrats have only themselves to blame, by nominating a befuddled and confused Joe Biden for president, lurching far more leftward than they should have and overseeing a crappy economy (whether it was their fault or not).
By the way, I'm a never Trump former Republican with a great distaste for the GOP. I'm just being realistic.
Prepare accordingly.
And the Democrats have only themselves to blame, by nominating a befuddled and confused Joe Biden for president, lurching far more leftward than they should have and overseeing a crappy economy (whether it was their fault or not).
By the way, I'm a never Trump former Republican with a great distaste for the GOP. I'm just being realistic.
Prepare accordingly.
Anonymous