Anonymous
06/05/2023 07:52
Subject: Ukrainian victory over Russia is inevitable
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:https://youtu.be/v-rHBRwdql8
Mearsheimer two weeks ago
Ukraine is getting ground down
Yeah, I'd take Mearsheimer with a grain of salt. If you follow Mearsheimer's logic, Russia already failed to recognize Ukraine in a Conventional Deterrence sense since they assumed they would take Kiev in 3 days. Russia also failed to recognize the outcome of the attrition war has high costs for an attacker. I disagree that a blitzkrieg is doomed to failure in a modern war (won't list out why here, since it will give pro-Russians ideas), but I do agree with his assesment that Russia would have little chance of overwhelming Europe with one. His "case for a Ukrainian nuclear deterrent" theory is interesting, but a bit too late.
To his core points, the question is not whether Ukraine is getting "ground down." Any time even a single man, woman, or child dies in Ukraine, it is getting "ground down." Similarly, every minute there is shelling, shooting, etc. Ukraine is getting "ground down."
At the beginning of the war in 2022, yes, Mearsheimer was right and Russians were inflicting huge losses upon Ukraine. To a lesser extent, when Ukraine went on the offensive to regain most of its territory. However, as of late, the improvement in weapon capabilities in Fall '22 and Spring '23 changed the rates at which the Ukrainians inflicted casualties upon Russia.
The question is who is getting "ground down" at a faster rate at which point in time. He has a point about the mix of pro-Russian versus pro-Ukrainian population concentrations in East Ukraine, but I would argue that Mearsheimer's vision is too narrow and Mr. Mearsheimer is not a mathematician. He failed to account for the size of Russian territory, the population density per sq km, and the amount of resources that ties up in terms of Russian labor and materiel. He does not take into consideration that although, in theory, Ukrainian civilians have fled the country, in theory, those Ukrainians are 'safe' (i.e. capable of raising children, reproducing, etc.). Although not all will return to fight for Ukraine, Russia can't touch them. In the worst-case, this means that there is a large displaced population of millions who will likely never forgive Russia in their lifetimes.
Note that Mearsheimer makes an assumption regarding the loss of personnel, without actual proof? You could tell he was guessing with his statements on Russian artillery. I, for example, don't know how many Ukrainians have actually died, so had to look for anecdotal evidence to confirm or deny. What I do know is Russian cemeteries and crematoriums appear to be filling up faster, are already running at full capacity, and the Russians are building / buying even more.
Mearsheimer's POV is understandable with his background and what he knows, but he must of missed the 2022 Victory Day Parade videos. The Russians are desperately trying to maintain appearances of normalcy and superiority. They've diverted resources, scraped up funds, put every piece of equipment they had into service, etc. to convince everyone they're still at the top of their game; but I personally believe it's more of a front than not.
Russia is currently at 1.5M mobilization, yet they are resorting to "press gang" recruiting tactics, had to completely remove conscription age limits and the Russian Press Secretary had to recently quell rumors of a "full mobilization" (to prevent the population from panicking). You don't do that if everything is 'fine' in Russia. My estimate is that at 6M mobilization, Russia wouldn't be able to effectively govern their own country and far before that (at around 3M) I think their economy will go haywire (even going back to Stalinist economic principles).
But Mearsheimer is an "expert" and I'm just a DCUMS rando, so what do I know?
There have been accusations that the UA purposely doesn't try to recover bodies or confirm deaths. This is apparently for propaganda and financial reasons. Its a pretty big-brained move that lets you make some crazy claims about K/D ratios if you don't count most of your dead. Making Russia dispose of your dead is also a bonus. Then there is the financial incentive in keeping people listed as MIA, as no pensions to survivors get paid out until they are declared dead.
Given that the people running the country have propaganda and penny-pinching in their blood, its not really surprising this is how they operate.
Anonymous
06/05/2023 06:43
Subject: Ukrainian victory over Russia is inevitable
Anonymous wrote:https://youtu.be/v-rHBRwdql8
Mearsheimer two weeks ago
Ukraine is getting ground down
Yeah, I'd take Mearsheimer with a grain of salt. If you follow Mearsheimer's logic, Russia already failed to recognize Ukraine in a Conventional Deterrence sense since they assumed they would take Kiev in 3 days. Russia also failed to recognize the outcome of the attrition war has high costs for an attacker. I disagree that a blitzkrieg is doomed to failure in a modern war (won't list out why here, since it will give pro-Russians ideas), but I do agree with his assesment that Russia would have little chance of overwhelming Europe with one. His "case for a Ukrainian nuclear deterrent" theory is interesting, but a bit too late.
To his core points, the question is not whether Ukraine is getting "ground down." Any time even a single man, woman, or child dies in Ukraine, it is getting "ground down." Similarly, every minute there is shelling, shooting, etc. Ukraine is getting "ground down."
At the beginning of the war in 2022, yes, Mearsheimer was right and Russians were inflicting huge losses upon Ukraine. To a lesser extent, when Ukraine went on the offensive to regain most of its territory. However, as of late, the improvement in weapon capabilities in Fall '22 and Spring '23 changed the rates at which the Ukrainians inflicted casualties upon Russia.
The question is who is getting "ground down" at a faster rate at which point in time. He has a point about the mix of pro-Russian versus pro-Ukrainian population concentrations in East Ukraine, but I would argue that Mearsheimer's vision is too narrow and Mr. Mearsheimer is not a mathematician. He failed to account for the size of Russian territory, the population density per sq km, and the amount of resources that ties up in terms of Russian labor and materiel. He does not take into consideration that although, in theory, Ukrainian civilians have fled the country, in theory, those Ukrainians are 'safe' (i.e. capable of raising children, reproducing, etc.). Although not all will return to fight for Ukraine, Russia can't touch them. In the worst-case, this means that there is a large displaced population of millions who will likely never forgive Russia in their lifetimes.
Note that Mearsheimer makes an assumption regarding the loss of personnel, without actual proof? You could tell he was guessing with his statements on Russian artillery. I, for example, don't know how many Ukrainians have actually died, so had to look for anecdotal evidence to confirm or deny. What I do know is Russian cemeteries and crematoriums appear to be filling up faster, are already running at full capacity, and the Russians are building / buying even more.
Mearsheimer's POV is understandable with his background and what he knows, but he must of missed the 2022 Victory Day Parade videos. The Russians are desperately trying to maintain appearances of normalcy and superiority. They've diverted resources, scraped up funds, put every piece of equipment they had into service, etc. to convince everyone they're still at the top of their game; but I personally believe it's more of a front than not.
Russia is currently at 1.5M mobilization, yet they are resorting to "press gang" recruiting tactics, had to completely remove conscription age limits and the Russian Press Secretary had to recently quell rumors of a "full mobilization" (to prevent the population from panicking). You don't do that if everything is 'fine' in Russia. My estimate is that at 6M mobilization, Russia wouldn't be able to effectively govern their own country and far before that (at around 3M) I think their economy will go haywire (even going back to Stalinist economic principles).
But Mearsheimer is an "expert" and I'm just a DCUMS rando, so what do I know?
Anonymous
06/05/2023 06:38
Subject: Ukrainian victory over Russia is inevitable
On the republics and Siberia “colonized” by the Russians. Unlike in the US, not a lot of native population was killed and a lot of progress was brought to the lands.
Locals were always part of the elites, maybe not on the forefront but very close second.
Without the Soviet/Russian influence many former republics would be either radical Islamist or just backward obscure territories.
Also, it’s just not realistic to think that territories that were technologically behind their neighbors would ever be left alone.
The question is only whose influence it would be.
Siberia may well become influenced by China (it’s happening now too), would it be better for the world?
Locals were always part of the elites, maybe not on the forefront but very close second.
Without the Soviet/Russian influence many former republics would be either radical Islamist or just backward obscure territories.
Also, it’s just not realistic to think that territories that were technologically behind their neighbors would ever be left alone.
The question is only whose influence it would be.
Siberia may well become influenced by China (it’s happening now too), would it be better for the world?
Anonymous
06/05/2023 06:33
Subject: Ukrainian victory over Russia is inevitable
Anonymous wrote:NP but I'm just dropping in to say that I'm angry on behalf of Ukraine and I need to see full, 100% justice happen in my lifetime.
Not Eastern European. Just someone with a background in social justice work who has imbibed and lived the tenets of that path, and I get angry when I think of how Ukraine has not won this war yet.
How does justice look to you? What should happen?
Anonymous
06/05/2023 06:31
Subject: Ukrainian victory over Russia is inevitable
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:You had me until you said there was nothing bad about Russian food. Russian food is horrible. All the good stuff is Polish or Georgian. The rest is just cabbage and dill.
I'm counting Beef Stroganoff, Pelmeni, Syrniki, Pirozhki, Blini, Shashlik... I know I know, you're gonna say it's "not Russian", but that's like saying tandoori isn't mainstream English food.. the fact is that without tandoori, I probably would've starved in London..
Stroganoff yes, but inspired by other cuisines. Pelmeni came from Siberian people. Syrniki has Ukrainian etymology rather than Russian творог. And certainly Russia can't lay unique claim to pancakes. A lot is borrowed/appropriated from other people and cultures.
Appropriated! No credibility for you
-DP
Debating the cultural value of a country, any country, is detrimental to freedom. As soon as you decide which countries are "worthy" you imply which countries are less worthy of their territorial integrity. This is in part what Putin did in the run-up to the invasion of Ukraine. Doing it back to Russia only legitimizes the idea of judging a country's worthiness for self determination.
I was talking about Russian food for Pete’s sake! Once you start debating whether it’s Russian or “Siberian” and use the term appropriation you lose credibility sorry
Siberian culture is not Slav Culture. Siberian history is not Russian history. Not even all these years after Russia came along colonized them in the 17th century.
You have a weird concept of Russia that you insist is true despite actual facts.
You have a weird notion that Siberia 600 years ago was slavic Russia, despite actual facts.
It doesn’t have to be Slavic to be Russia. Told you your concept of Russia is weird.
This is arrogant, hubristic slavic Russian thinking. Not everyone else in lands currently or formerly occupied by Russia would agree with your thinking.
DP.
Of course not.
Plenty of nationalists looking to stir the pot and eventually become tzars of their own little “country”. This is essentially what happened in the former USSR republics. Nationalism and historic slights were used to gain power and money by the national elites and threw the republics into chaos and violence in many places. The veneer of civilized was very thin.
It may happen with the Russian federation too, of course. Never underestimate the power of wanting more power and using nationalism for that.
Anonymous
06/05/2023 06:25
Subject: Ukrainian victory over Russia is inevitable
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:You had me until you said there was nothing bad about Russian food. Russian food is horrible. All the good stuff is Polish or Georgian. The rest is just cabbage and dill.
I'm counting Beef Stroganoff, Pelmeni, Syrniki, Pirozhki, Blini, Shashlik... I know I know, you're gonna say it's "not Russian", but that's like saying tandoori isn't mainstream English food.. the fact is that without tandoori, I probably would've starved in London..
Stroganoff yes, but inspired by other cuisines. Pelmeni came from Siberian people. Syrniki has Ukrainian etymology rather than Russian творог. And certainly Russia can't lay unique claim to pancakes. A lot is borrowed/appropriated from other people and cultures.
Appropriated! No credibility for you
-DP
Debating the cultural value of a country, any country, is detrimental to freedom. As soon as you decide which countries are "worthy" you imply which countries are less worthy of their territorial integrity. This is in part what Putin did in the run-up to the invasion of Ukraine. Doing it back to Russia only legitimizes the idea of judging a country's worthiness for self determination.
I was talking about Russian food for Pete’s sake! Once you start debating whether it’s Russian or “Siberian” and use the term appropriation you lose credibility sorry
Siberian culture is not Slav Culture. Siberian history is not Russian history. Not even all these years after Russia came along colonized them in the 17th century.
You have a weird concept of Russia that you insist is true despite actual facts.
They are trying to stir the pot a la it’s stirred in the US when people keep talking about how unfair it was what happened like two centuries ago.
What happened was bad but also was par for the course of that time, it’s been atoned for and it’s time to move on and improve the lives of the current generations based on what is happening now. Yes it is important to reflect on the past but the navel gazing is just too much.
Anonymous
06/05/2023 06:20
Subject: Ukrainian victory over Russia is inevitable
Anonymous wrote:Serbia is Russia lite. Not that Kosovo is that great but by now Kosovo should do better against the Serbs for a real war again.
They need to fight every 15-20 years to get it out of their system.
Russia can only do so much for Serbia this time.
That is one fight that will never have a winner. Kosovo is the lesser of two evils, just because Serbs are basically the same thing as Russians.
Or you can say that the West has created and supported Kosovo precisely for the reasons it supports Ukraine - to not let their neighbor grow too strong.
Just geopolitics, nothing personal
Anonymous
06/05/2023 06:18
Subject: Ukrainian victory over Russia is inevitable
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:You had me until you said there was nothing bad about Russian food. Russian food is horrible. All the good stuff is Polish or Georgian. The rest is just cabbage and dill.
I'm counting Beef Stroganoff, Pelmeni, Syrniki, Pirozhki, Blini, Shashlik... I know I know, you're gonna say it's "not Russian", but that's like saying tandoori isn't mainstream English food.. the fact is that without tandoori, I probably would've starved in London..
Stroganoff yes, but inspired by other cuisines. Pelmeni came from Siberian people. Syrniki has Ukrainian etymology rather than Russian творог. And certainly Russia can't lay unique claim to pancakes. A lot is borrowed/appropriated from other people and cultures.
Appropriated! No credibility for you
-DP
Debating the cultural value of a country, any country, is detrimental to freedom. As soon as you decide which countries are "worthy" you imply which countries are less worthy of their territorial integrity. This is in part what Putin did in the run-up to the invasion of Ukraine. Doing it back to Russia only legitimizes the idea of judging a country's worthiness for self determination.
I was talking about Russian food for Pete’s sake! Once you start debating whether it’s Russian or “Siberian” and use the term appropriation you lose credibility sorry
Siberian culture is not Slav Culture. Siberian history is not Russian history. Not even all these years after Russia came along colonized them in the 17th century.
Sure, Siberia would have been so much better in its own! And such a realistic scenario too.
It’s all done and the only reason anyone starts talking about things that happened in the 17th century is to stir the pot and fish for something in it.
Anonymous
06/05/2023 06:15
Subject: Ukrainian victory over Russia is inevitable
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:You had me until you said there was nothing bad about Russian food. Russian food is horrible. All the good stuff is Polish or Georgian. The rest is just cabbage and dill.
I'm counting Beef Stroganoff, Pelmeni, Syrniki, Pirozhki, Blini, Shashlik... I know I know, you're gonna say it's "not Russian", but that's like saying tandoori isn't mainstream English food.. the fact is that without tandoori, I probably would've starved in London..
Stroganoff yes, but inspired by other cuisines. Pelmeni came from Siberian people. Syrniki has Ukrainian etymology rather than Russian творог. And certainly Russia can't lay unique claim to pancakes. A lot is borrowed/appropriated from other people and cultures.
Appropriated! No credibility for you
-DP
Debating the cultural value of a country, any country, is detrimental to freedom. As soon as you decide which countries are "worthy" you imply which countries are less worthy of their territorial integrity. This is in part what Putin did in the run-up to the invasion of Ukraine. Doing it back to Russia only legitimizes the idea of judging a country's worthiness for self determination.
Ehh, I'm fine with delegitimizing Russia because they don't care about the worthiness or self-determination of other countries, like Ukraine.
No one really knows what self determination is or how it works. It has never been applied to countries equally or fairly. It’s mostly driven by his favored the country is. Like, I bet if a part of Russia suddenly voted to join Finland, they’d get a serious hearing. Artsakh wants to be a part of Armenia? Or be independent? Bubkes for them. Kosovo ? Now you’re talking.
With places like Finland, it pays to have friends.
As for some of the others, what meaningful friends do they have now? Armenia was for years basically a Russian client state, and they counted on Russia for protection. But now they know Russia is no longer there for them, CIS/CSTO etc have pretty much become a joke. Serbia may wake up to the same realization
DP but I am afraid you are are confusing cause and effect here. “The west” was always pro Azeri and anti Serbia which made Armenia and Serbia move to the other side
Armenia never moved anywhere. Since 1991 they were still under the Russian umbrella, member of CSTO et cetera. But that said, now would be a good time for them to move, since Russia is no longer there for them.
I mean it never wanted to “become part of the civilized Europe” which was very much the sentiment of say Georgia.
It felt unsupported in its karabakh ambitions so maybe that was part of it too
Anonymous
06/05/2023 06:13
Subject: Ukrainian victory over Russia is inevitable
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:You had me until you said there was nothing bad about Russian food. Russian food is horrible. All the good stuff is Polish or Georgian. The rest is just cabbage and dill.
I'm counting Beef Stroganoff, Pelmeni, Syrniki, Pirozhki, Blini, Shashlik... I know I know, you're gonna say it's "not Russian", but that's like saying tandoori isn't mainstream English food.. the fact is that without tandoori, I probably would've starved in London..
Stroganoff yes, but inspired by other cuisines. Pelmeni came from Siberian people. Syrniki has Ukrainian etymology rather than Russian творог. And certainly Russia can't lay unique claim to pancakes. A lot is borrowed/appropriated from other people and cultures.
Appropriated! No credibility for you
-DP
Debating the cultural value of a country, any country, is detrimental to freedom. As soon as you decide which countries are "worthy" you imply which countries are less worthy of their territorial integrity. This is in part what Putin did in the run-up to the invasion of Ukraine. Doing it back to Russia only legitimizes the idea of judging a country's worthiness for self determination.
Ehh, I'm fine with delegitimizing Russia because they don't care about the worthiness or self-determination of other countries, like Ukraine.
No one really knows what self determination is or how it works. It has never been applied to countries equally or fairly. It’s mostly driven by his favored the country is. Like, I bet if a part of Russia suddenly voted to join Finland, they’d get a serious hearing. Artsakh wants to be a part of Armenia? Or be independent? Bubkes for them. Kosovo ? Now you’re talking.
With places like Finland, it pays to have friends.
As for some of the others, what meaningful friends do they have now? Armenia was for years basically a Russian client state, and they counted on Russia for protection. But now they know Russia is no longer there for them, CIS/CSTO etc have pretty much become a joke. Serbia may wake up to the same realization
DP but I am afraid you are are confusing cause and effect here. “The west” was always pro Azeri and anti Serbia which made Armenia and Serbia move to the other side
Azerbaijan gets more of its help from places like Turkey than from the west. And Serbia still carries a stain from its prior genocide, and is full of pro-Z idiots.
If we are talking about the Karabakh conflict - since the British control Azerbaijan was supported in getting it and not Armenia.
Serbia was “cheated” in the Yugoslavia conflict or so it feels and that’s why it doesn’t want to be “friends” with the west. The whole Kosovo deal is insulting to Serbs and hence pro Russia gravitation
Anonymous
06/05/2023 06:08
Subject: Ukrainian victory over Russia is inevitable
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:"A wave of looting has reportedly hit a border zone in Russia as Vladimir Putin's authorities lose control of the Belgorod Oblast region.”
They don’t lose control. It’s as if there was an earthquake or a tsunami - looting there too.
And no I am a not a pro Russian bot and I think Russia will lose in the end. But let’s not misunderstand what’s going on.
There is no lost control (to who?!) and there will be no Russians turning on Putin. It will all come from the outside.
Hmm. Not sure about that. You're not thinking like a Soviet-trained Russian. There's a hypothesis I have based upon things I'm reading, but I don't want to post it here since if I'm right someone might think it's plausible and decide do house-cleaning back in Moscow.
The Cheka, NKVD and KGB were exceptionally efficient at ferreting out anyone with different opinions or political leanings. After years of Soviet rule, ordinary Russians adapted and developed the means to resist. These means could be passed off as accidents or incompetence (a common occurrence when you have a brainwashed population who can't think logically or rationally, since they're expected to believe any lie told to them as coming from higher-ups).
Remember back in April when Gurulyov said the “enemy of the people” designation should be used on not only those in the military who give “moronic orders,” but also ordinary people'?
https://t.me/astrapress/25462
Remember when the Russian Federal Protective Service did "sociological surveys"? "The Kremlin tasked the Federal Protective Service (equivalent of the USSS) to conduct "sociological surveys" of the Risk of Worsening Conditions for the Ministry of Economic Development, to determine potential sources of unrest. 54 "mono" (factory) towns were considered borderline for unrest with another 105 closely following."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A-1n-05Xu6Y
I believe this was a direct reference to this phenomenon. More and more, I'm seeing evidence of this happening in very visible areas. This is a pattern similar to what happened in the Former Soviet Union just before its breakup. This is why I think Russia may re-disintegrate within about 2 1/2 years. However, unlike before, there is a stronger chance of anarchy developing since, as a former KGB agent himself, Putin has been exceptionally efficient in identifying and neutralizing out strong opposition.
But overall, I do believe it's more likely an inside pressure that could unseat Putin. The War in Ukraine is more of.. a lid on a boiling pot?
Haha you seriously think anyone in Moscow will do something based on anything written here?
As for within vs from the outside.
I do agree there is a chance Russia may “disintegrate” or, more likely, lose some of its loose satellite pieces.
However, I still insist that just as it happened with the USSR, it will all come from a combination of economic factors AND outside/top down pressure or political will.
If history has taught the Russians anything it is that grassroots resistance is bloody and futile and might not lead to the desired result even if not completely futile.
Yes there will be different political and grassroot forces brewing but anything meaningful will be a creature of the west or a very top down thing.
Also things are different from the USSR in that there is no more infatuation by the west. And you need something to aspire to, an ideology in order to change things. That’s why I think change will be slow and based on economic factors or external forces
Anonymous
06/05/2023 02:19
Subject: Ukrainian victory over Russia is inevitable
NP but I'm just dropping in to say that I'm angry on behalf of Ukraine and I need to see full, 100% justice happen in my lifetime.
Not Eastern European. Just someone with a background in social justice work who has imbibed and lived the tenets of that path, and I get angry when I think of how Ukraine has not won this war yet.
Not Eastern European. Just someone with a background in social justice work who has imbibed and lived the tenets of that path, and I get angry when I think of how Ukraine has not won this war yet.
Anonymous
06/05/2023 02:19
Subject: Ukrainian victory over Russia is inevitable
Anonymous
06/05/2023 00:34
Subject: Ukrainian victory over Russia is inevitable
Anonymous wrote:In the meantime, an update from Monaco: https://www.lemonde.fr/en/m-le-mag/article/2023/06/01/ukrainian-oligarchs-secret-escape-to-the-french-riviera_6028690_117.html
Oooh. Entire dozens. Yeah, that's what the article says. Dozens.
Color me unimpressed. Compare it to all of the Russian oligarchs who left and the countless tens of thousands of Russian draft dodgers and your "omg dozens of ukrainians in monaco" is not even a drop in the bucket.
Anonymous
06/05/2023 00:31
Subject: Ukrainian victory over Russia is inevitable
In the meantime, an update from Monaco: https://www.lemonde.fr/en/m-le-mag/article/2023/06/01/ukrainian-oligarchs-secret-escape-to-the-french-riviera_6028690_117.html