Anonymous wrote:If it is true that housing prices are dropping in MoCo, why is it bad? It is already too expensive and unaffordable.
Do you guys think it will go downhill to the point that I can afford to buy a house in Bethesda for $400k?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:Take just one factor - Thomas Jefferson. There are mountains of people who move from MoCo Fairfax just to be able to apply there. They have smart kids and the whole school is serving the best of the best in Fairfax. The dedicated school with all classes and the program tailored to their needs. MoCo could do the same but never will. Why? No idea.

You cannot be that clueless, can you?
The best of Fairfax, in fact the whole NoVa, cannot lit a candle to the best of MoCo.

The PP probably hyperbolized a bit, but your response is complete and utter nonsense. Look in your mirror to find the “clueless.”

No dear, not nonsense but the truth
I know the truth is hard to admit

This is hilarious but sad. The poster above had it right.

I pity your ignorance and seemingly teeny-tiny understanding of truth.

Anonymous wrote:The amount of infrastructure Arlington has invested in cannot he touched by most counties in the US. Unfortunately they did not invest in their schools soon enough so they may cap their skyrocketing appreciation.
Falls Church is a feeder and emulator of Arlington who could see more growth mid term.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm concerned that Montgomery County's planning commission has zero economic sense. There are close to 50,000 homes new homes in the pipeline in the next few years. These are almost all concentrated in Bethesda, Rockville, and Silver Spring. These homes are entering the market at the same time when there is a large bubble of residents moving into retirement which means downsizing and selling homes.

This type of surge of inventory can only work if there is a matching surge in potential buyers. If MOCO had won Amazon, it would be a good move but MOCO putting all its eggs in one basket with Amazon was a bad choice.

Its basic supply and demand. More choices than buyers always equals prices dropping. Inventory is a huge driver for local markets. In the next few years there will be far more expensive homes than buyers with the money and desire ti live in Montgomery County. This will push down prices. Developers are more numbers focused and will run a comparable against holding out or dropping the prices. Buyers will end up purchasing newer homes over older homes. Older home owners can be more stubborn and stick to pricing too high only to end up selling at even greater loss.

On the upside, the problem of people not being able to afford a 4 bedroom home will be alleviated in Montgomery County. On the downside, people who bought high will be out of luck. Just watch you'll be able to pick up a 600K older home in North Bethesda/Rockville and a 400K older home in close-in DTSS in a few years. Bethesda will start to see more 700K and 800K older homes become available.

On the one hand, as you said, there are tons of new development, and they are not cheap by any means. I am seeing condo/TH along metro stops from Shady Grove down to TB go for $700K+. Then there is my neighborhood in Rockville where homes are going for $750K+.

How is all this considered MoCo going down the tubes? Sure, there are parts in MoCo that aren't doing that well, but some of the stuff people are posting on this thread make it seem like the whole of MoCo is suffering, and I just don't find this to be the case.

Spouse and I are nearing retirement, and we'd like to find a smaller place for less than $600K near Town Center area, and the only ones I can find are fixer uppers.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm concerned that Montgomery County's planning commission has zero economic sense. There are close to 50,000 homes new homes in the pipeline in the next few years. These are almost all concentrated in Bethesda, Rockville, and Silver Spring. These homes are entering the market at the same time when there is a large bubble of residents moving into retirement which means downsizing and selling homes.

This type of surge of inventory can only work if there is a matching surge in potential buyers. If MOCO had won Amazon, it would be a good move but MOCO putting all its eggs in one basket with Amazon was a bad choice.

Its basic supply and demand. More choices than buyers always equals prices dropping. Inventory is a huge driver for local markets. In the next few years there will be far more expensive homes than buyers with the money and desire ti live in Montgomery County. This will push down prices. Developers are more numbers focused and will run a comparable against holding out or dropping the prices. Buyers will end up purchasing newer homes over older homes. Older home owners can be more stubborn and stick to pricing too high only to end up selling at even greater loss.

On the upside, the problem of people not being able to afford a 4 bedroom home will be alleviated in Montgomery County. On the downside, people who bought high will be out of luck. Just watch you'll be able to pick up a 600K older home in North Bethesda/Rockville and a 400K older home in close-in DTSS in a few years. Bethesda will start to see more 700K and 800K older homes become available.

DP.. a lot of folks want SFH once their kids hit a certain age, and as a PP noted, developers aren't building many SFH.
Except not building single family homes

Anonymous wrote:What do jobs have to do with housing? A large part of folks in Bethesda Row, Rose and Pike Condos, Quarry Condos on River Road and a large amount of older people in big Potomac houses don't work. I say 75 percent of adults on my block don't work. Houses are in range 1.3 to 4.5 million in my block. Half block retired or independently wealthy, other half have stay at home spouses. Ladies who lunch is a big crowd

On the one hand, as you said, there are tons of new development, and they are not cheap by any means. I am seeing condo/TH along metro stops from Shady Grove down to TB go for $700K+. Then there is my neighborhood in Rockville where homes are going for $750K+.

How is all this considered MoCo going down the tubes? Sure, there are parts in MoCo that aren't doing that well, but some of the stuff people are posting on this thread make it seem like the whole of MoCo is suffering, and I just don't find this to be the case.

Spouse and I are nearing retirement, and we'd like to find a smaller place for less than $600K near Town Center area, and the only ones I can find are fixer uppers.

Anonymous wrote:I'm concerned that Montgomery County's planning commission has zero economic sense. There are close to 50,000 homes new homes in the pipeline in the next few years. These are almost all concentrated in Bethesda, Rockville, and Silver Spring. These homes are entering the market at the same time when there is a large bubble of residents moving into retirement which means downsizing and selling homes.

This type of surge of inventory can only work if there is a matching surge in potential buyers. If MOCO had won Amazon, it would be a good move but MOCO putting all its eggs in one basket with Amazon was a bad choice.

Its basic supply and demand. More choices than buyers always equals prices dropping. Inventory is a huge driver for local markets. In the next few years there will be far more expensive homes than buyers with the money and desire ti live in Montgomery County. This will push down prices. Developers are more numbers focused and will run a comparable against holding out or dropping the prices. Buyers will end up purchasing newer homes over older homes. Older home owners can be more stubborn and stick to pricing too high only to end up selling at even greater loss.

On the upside, the problem of people not being able to afford a 4 bedroom home will be alleviated in Montgomery County. On the downside, people who bought high will be out of luck. Just watch you'll be able to pick up a 600K older home in North Bethesda/Rockville and a 400K older home in close-in DTSS in a few years. Bethesda will start to see more 700K and 800K older homes become available.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm concerned that Montgomery County's planning commission has zero economic sense. There are close to 50,000 homes new homes in the pipeline in the next few years. These are almost all concentrated in Bethesda, Rockville, and Silver Spring. These homes are entering the market at the same time when there is a large bubble of residents moving into retirement which means downsizing and selling homes.

This type of surge of inventory can only work if there is a matching surge in potential buyers. If MOCO had won Amazon, it would be a good move but MOCO putting all its eggs in one basket with Amazon was a bad choice.

Its basic supply and demand. More choices than buyers always equals prices dropping. Inventory is a huge driver for local markets. In the next few years there will be far more expensive homes than buyers with the money and desire ti live in Montgomery County. This will push down prices. Developers are more numbers focused and will run a comparable against holding out or dropping the prices. Buyers will end up purchasing newer homes over older homes. Older home owners can be more stubborn and stick to pricing too high only to end up selling at even greater loss.

On the upside, the problem of people not being able to afford a 4 bedroom home will be alleviated in Montgomery County. On the downside, people who bought high will be out of luck. Just watch you'll be able to pick up a 600K older home in North Bethesda/Rockville and a 400K older home in close-in DTSS in a few years. Bethesda will start to see more 700K and 800K older homes become available.

On the one hand, as you said, there are tons of new development, and they are not cheap by any means. I am seeing condo/TH along metro stops from Shady Grove down to TB go for $700K+. Then there is my neighborhood in Rockville where homes are going for $750K+.

How is all this considered MoCo going down the tubes? Sure, there are parts in MoCo that aren't doing that well, but some of the stuff people are posting on this thread make it seem like the whole of MoCo is suffering, and I just don't find this to be the case.

Spouse and I are nearing retirement, and we'd like to find a smaller place for less than $600K near Town Center area, and the only ones I can find are fixer uppers.

Anonymous wrote:I'm concerned that Montgomery County's planning commission has zero economic sense. There are close to 50,000 homes new homes in the pipeline in the next few years. These are almost all concentrated in Bethesda, Rockville, and Silver Spring. These homes are entering the market at the same time when there is a large bubble of residents moving into retirement which means downsizing and selling homes.

This type of surge of inventory can only work if there is a matching surge in potential buyers. If MOCO had won Amazon, it would be a good move but MOCO putting all its eggs in one basket with Amazon was a bad choice.

Its basic supply and demand. More choices than buyers always equals prices dropping. Inventory is a huge driver for local markets. In the next few years there will be far more expensive homes than buyers with the money and desire ti live in Montgomery County. This will push down prices. Developers are more numbers focused and will run a comparable against holding out or dropping the prices. Buyers will end up purchasing newer homes over older homes. Older home owners can be more stubborn and stick to pricing too high only to end up selling at even greater loss.

On the upside, the problem of people not being able to afford a 4 bedroom home will be alleviated in Montgomery County. On the downside, people who bought high will be out of luck. Just watch you'll be able to pick up a 600K older home in North Bethesda/Rockville and a 400K older home in close-in DTSS in a few years. Bethesda will start to see more 700K and 800K older homes become available.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

There are more people who live in Maryland and work in VA, than those that do the reverse. Based on most recent census data in 2009-2013 time frame, approximately 68,500 people who lived in Virginia work in Maryland. Conversely, approximately 122,700 people who lived in Maryland work in Virginia. You guys can download and look at the raw data yourself:

https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/dem...commuting/commuting-flows.html

It's very clear that VA does a better job at providing people with, err, jobs, than Maryland.


Agreed, and I suspect in the 10 years since that census was taken, a lot of people have decided to locate or relocate to NoVA, driving up housing prices there compared to MD. It's rational to assume that if one area is creating a lot more jobs than another one, this will have a short-term effect of a lot of people commuting there, and a longer-term effect of people locating there and therefore driving up housing costs relative to other nearby areas.

This X100. I think this is the #1 reason why there is such a stark difference between Montgomery County appreciation and NOVA appreciation. Higher paying jobs are being concentrated in NOVA. This starts a snowball effect with wealthier, high income people moving to NOVA and newcomers choosing NOVA over MoCo. MoCo loses both revenue from not having any jobs or business and losing the high income residents. This makes the area more affordable but less attractive so prices fall further. Poverty increases because there are more options for low income housing and programs. The schools suffer as they lose more highly educated people. Eventually taxes will need to go up spooking away other buyers or tipping the scales for more wealthy people leaving the county. Buyers see the huge differences in appreciation and worry about investing in Montgomery County.

Some of the fundamentals are really stark:



So Fairfax has about 10% more people and 10% more businesses with employees, but the businesses with employees in Fairfax generate 38% more employment and 66% higher payroll than the businesses in Montgomery County. So not only are the businesses in Fairfax County employing far more people on average, but the jobs are significantly higher paying. And year over year Fairfax is enjoying 1.3% employment growth versus 0.2% for MoCo. This does not even take into account the business/employment in Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, and Fairfax City. Here's the underlying raw data for people that want to see for themselves:

https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/montgomerycountymaryland,fairfaxcountyvirginia,US/PST045218

Face it, Virginia is providing substantial employment opportunities to Marylanders, MoCo should be thanking their lucky stars for their proximity to NoVA.

NP here. Seriously. To the point, that PP is finding and posting tables on this thread to prove a point. Do you all work? LOL!

PP here. I am an owner of one of the "employer establishments" in Fairfax County. I do work, but set my own schedule.

So business owner, what's it to you? Why must you go out of your way to attempt to "prove" that VA is so much better than MD? Do you have nothing else better to do? Good grief.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

how come you VA folks dont take your General Lee cars and hop over Potomac every day to work.

because there are no jobs in in MoCo

Another lie

https://aminerdetail.com/new-report-paints-devastating-economic-outlook-for-montgomery-county/

is it? No jobs growth, a rapidly aging population, already high taxes. You are right, things are rosy.

Stating that there are no jobs is a lie. Or are you saying that you didn't say that?